Source: Patent application
Chance it's true: The patent? 100 percent. This showing up on store shelves? Much less.
Apple patents tons of stuff that never makes it to market. It obviously also patents things which do, but after reading through how this feature would supposedly work, I'm doubtful it'll ever actually ship. Explaining the Smart Cover to your grandma, as it exists today, is relatively easy. Trying to explain any of the stuff this patent describes to your grandma is just going to convince her to crochet a new cover for the iPad instead.
Source: Internal Apple leak
Chance it's true: 90 percent
Like most reports of this nature, this is almost certainly sourced from disloyal Apple employees who, for some reason, think leaking company secrets to rumor blogs is the cool, hip thing to do.
This report is very detailed, with tidbits suggesting the Apple Watch's processor will be more powerful than the first generation iPad (insane), and that the device's battery life is likely to seem underwhelming compared to other device Apple sells. It's hard to imagine doing several hours worth of stuff on a screen that small every day, however, so while detractors will likely jump up and down over the Apple Watch's supposedly "abysmal" battery life, real-world users may well find it suitable.
It's also pretty obvious from this report where the pain points of the Apple Watch lie, which make the improvements for the second-generation device even more obvious. Count on an A6 or higher class processor, mostly optimised for better battery life, and a consequential massive leap forward in the amount of time you can use it between charges.
Source: Parts leak
Chance it's true: 90 percent
Now we're talking. Analysts can hem and haw all they want, and "people familiar with the matter" can do their voodoo dance, but nothing beats a good old photo like this. In the past, parts leaks like this often turned out to be fake, but virtually all similar leaks in 2014 (for example, the iPhone 6) turned out to be accurate.
Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo
Chance it's true: 40 percent at most
The rumor blogs' favorite "well-connected" analyst is back with yet another batch of predictions. Roughly half of these will turn out to be true, and that's all anyone else will remember. The stack of stuff he gets wrong will be swept under the rug, utterly forgotten, and the legend of the "world's most accurate analyst" will live on forever despite all evidence to the contrary.
Source: Korean website
Chance it's true: Who knows
I'm always suspicious of positive Samsung spin coming from South Korean publications, because I certainly wouldn't put it past Samsung to just outright buy (or bully) good press out of its home country.
Laying that aside, at this point we've heard conflicting rumors making wholly incompatible claims. First Samsung was going to make all of the A9 chips, then none, then sharing the load with Pegatron making most of them, and now Samsung is making the majority again. It's almost as though these people have no actual idea what's going on and are simply throwing wild guesses out there in the hopes of luring in pageviews. But no... that can't be it. No one writing about Apple would ever stoop that low, would they?