relmstein
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Predicting a ten million subscriber year for WoW
Relmstein has a short piece up about Blizzard and their little online game in the coming year, and in the process, he arrives at the exact same subscriber number that I did in my predictions: Ten million subscribers worldwide.The latest figures we have say they're current at eight million, but of course every bit of thinking we do on this issue is clouded by the expansion next week. Personally, I think the expansion will live up to the hype-- when hasn't Blizzard ever done that? Relmstein agrees with me, and says it'll bring a lot of players back. I'm thinking that means even players who don't expect to come back. Once the items start getting out there, and the new instances carve out their place in the culture, I think the Burning Crusade will bring this game back for a lot of people. Heck one indicator is the new PVP system-- if all the new content can revive the PVE game at least as much, it's a good thing Blizz is unwrapping all those new servers.But of course the drawback to an expansion is this: you don't earn a new audience with addon content. I'd hazard a guess that the expansion will sell five to six million copies after all is said and done, but almost every one of those copies will go to someone who's already got an identity in Azeroth: I'd doubt anyone is sitting on the sidelines, just waiting for a Blood Elf or Draenei to come along and pick up the game. Of course, that doesn't mean Blizzard won't make money-- they'll rake it in, and hopefully spend it on even more servers and content. But I'm thinking that while Burning Crusade will bring a renaissance to Azeroth, total subscribers will top out at 10 million. And then, we can talk about another issue: will WoW's base peak in 2007?
Breakfast Topic: Killing time before the expansion...
The other day, Dave pointed out a blog post by Relmstein listing things - he says -- you're not supposed to do before the expansion's release. And... maybe it's just me, but I think they all sound like excellent ways to kill time until the expansion is released! Sadly, neither of my priests are Night Elves, and so cannot shadowmeld near the entrance to BRM in order to mind control players into the lava -- a sacrifice to Ragnaros in hopes of an on-time expansion release. So I'll have to think up other ways to amuse myself -- while there is no leveling to be done and little point in attempting to aquire new gear. And how do you think to kill time -- do you have any additions to Relmstein's list?
Playing healers (or not)
Relmstein had an interesting series recently on why healing classes are so unpopular. I know from experience that healing classes are rare, because some days there's a lengthy queue for my time starting from the instant I log on. The following is representative of my daily login attempt -- and is usually enough to make me go log on my rogue!Welcome to World of Warcraft![Guild] Friendlymage: Hey Lizzy - want to heal Scholomance?[Randomshaman] whispers: need healer for BRD! last spot!![Randomhunter] whispers: LBRS?[Randomwarlock] has invited you to join a group.You have declined [Randomwarlock]'s group invitation.[Guild] Lizzy: Okay!You whisper to [Randomshaman]: Sorry, going to Scholomance.[Friendlymage] has invited you to join a group.You whisper to [Randomhunter]: Can't, heading to Scholomance.[Randomshaman] whispers: pls!!! will pay 5g.You whisper to [Randomshaman]: I can't -- I'm already committed to going to Scholomance.[Raider] whispers: Hey, we need more priests for Razorgore, wanna come?[Randomshaman] whispers: 10g?You are now ignoring [Randomshaman].[Raider2]: We need healers for BWL!You whisper to [Raider]: Sorry, busy atm.[Raider3] whispers: BWL?
