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Analysts predict console war outcome, fanboys riot in streets
Over at GameDaily, analyst group DFC Intelligence has made a few observations regarding recent trends in the video game industry, and has a prediction for the result of the current-generation "console wars." According to DFC, the Nintendo Wii will ultimately secure its first place position, with the PS3 overtaking the Xbox 360 in 2009 for a strong second-place showing.In terms of longevity, DFC believes that by 2012 the Playstation 3 will surpass the Wii in terms of software sales (no doubt assuming a staying power similar to the console's little brother, the PS2). They also predict that the slowed economy in North America will actually benefit video game sales, as high gas prices encourage consumers to stay home and play games, rather than going out. Several other interesting tidbits and predictions can be found in their full report.
Nintendo's strides in Europe good for the industry?
Analysts at DFC Intelligence are preparing to release their gaming industry forecasts soon, and they see Nintendo's domination in Europe as a good thing not just for the company, but for the industry overall. See, they think that over the next few years Nintendo will continue to dominate there, with the benefit coming from Nintendo's success showing their competitors the region is a strong marketplace and deserving of more focus.But, with all of this attention being turned to Europe in the future, supposedly, can it be a bad thing for Nintendo in the end? Added attention means added competition, but we're not too sure that Nintendo needs to worry about anything. In the U.S. and Japan, two very strong markets, Nintendo is still kicking butt and selling its products like there is no tomorrow. So while Nintendo's success in the region might drive the competition to more aggressively pursue consumers there, the appeal of the DS and Wii are much too great, in our eyes. At least, for the time being.
The PlayStation 3 "probably" won't be last in console race
DFC Intelligence issued a report last year stating that the PS3 would probably get pounded by the press and competition because they had such a powerful grip on the console industry. It's a year later and guess what? They are getting pounded by the press and the competition is making it really difficult for Sony to keep its crown. In light of this, DFC Intelligence isn't doing their "I told you so" dance, but they've answered their own question. They don't think Sony will go from first to worst. They say "probably not."Their reasoning isn't necessarily based on what Sony has done, but what Nintendo, Microsoft, and third party developers have done. You can read their report on those companies in the Gamasutra article if you'd like but we'd hate to seem like we're fanning flames that have, for all intents and purposes, seemed to have cooled off a bit. What do they say will save Sony from failing in their "slow and steady" policy? A price cut and a plethora of software. Guess what? E3 is soon and we think something big will happen.
Gamasutra asks: "Is there anything wrong with the PSP?"
We'd like to think that there's nothing wrong with our beloved handheld. However, the truth is that many people, misinformed or not, do not believe in Sony's platform. Gamasutra asked a number of industry professionals about what they think is wrong about PSP, if there is anything at all. David Cole from DFC Intelligence points out that the price drop is a good step, but that's not enough. "I think a new form factor is needed more than a price cut." Ed Barton from Screen Digest is frustrated at the constant comparisons to Nintendo DS: "We forecast that the global installed base of PSP users will be around 29 million at the end of 2007, generating $1.9 billion in software sales. Lifetime software sales at the end of 2007 will be around $4.5 billion. If this is 'failing,' then failure just got a huge brand makeover." Mike Wolf from ABI Research thinks that anti-Sony fanboyism runs wild due to high expectations placed on Sony ... due to their ambitious claims. "I believe the device's perceived 'failure' by some is due to the device struggling to live up to Sony's own marketing of the product, much like what the PS3 is going through today." I completely agree with many of the things these professionals have to say about PSP. It's true that PSP is certainly not a failure, but it could've been far more successful as well. Sony has made a ton of mistakes this life cycle, but as they've been recently showing, things can easily change with a refocused effort.
Analyst: PSP and DS will outdo home consoles
Don't throw out your handhelds: there's a lot of life left in them. According to an analyst at DFC Intelligence, the ever-expanding market for both DS and PSP will help allow it to beat the current generation systems: "Under the right scenario, by 2011 the combined installed base of the DS and PSP could exceed that for the Nintendo Wii, Sony PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Xbox 360," noted David Cole.While Nintendo will be responsible for much of the growth of the handheld industry, Sony is certainly not out of the game--they will "establish a solid position in the marketplace" (if they haven't already). Cole reminds investors that "existing console game publishers have found it is possible to make over $100 million in revenue from a single PSP title based on the right franchise," a figure that's not to be scoffed at.Ultimately, PSP's success will be determined by a number of factors, with Sony's support for the platform being key. Sony said they're working on exciting new things for the platform at GDC--hopefully, it's true.[Via GameDaily BIZ]
DFC Intelligence outlines next-generation views
Sure, we've seen the countless polls and message board flamethreads that are the next-generation console wars. Amidst all the fanboy dreck, however, it's nice to know that industry experts can offer their opinions in a logical fashion, with solid facts to back up their conjectures. Such a report can be found here, written by DFC Intelligence's David Cole. It shares some interesting views on the current market views regarding the Playstation 3 (especially from an international perspective), and describes the possibilities of shift in console market share. Certainly a read for the more business-minded gamer, but a decent one nevertheless.
DFC analysts say Sony's PS3 may "end up third"
DFC Intelligence -- a market-forecasting agency -- have recently released their likely scenarios regarding the upcoming war o' consoles. They have an interesting set of scenario guidelines/factors they used in setting up how Sony would turn out. How'd they turn out? They say last third place. But keep in mind, they said, "When we say the PlayStation 3 could end up in third place that is a worst case scenario for Sony."If we look at the bulleted list on the site, the first three, summarized as: Current market position Current software library Other consoles' current software libraries There is no question Sony rocks the socks off of analysts for the first three points. The rest of the list? A little harder to discern a clear victor. These points consider: Expecting upcoming software for the PS3 (debatably good or bad) Upcoming software for competitors (debatably good or bad also) Price of PS3 measured against rivals Chance/amount of price drop Hardware/WOW! (NOT World of Warcraft...) factor A lot of debate had been risen from the fact GTA4 won't be exclusive to the PS3, however, according to DFC Intelligence, less than 20% of PS2 owners bought any of the titles. In fact, " Without GTA buyers, the PS2 would still have outsold the competition by more than 3 to 1." Nice. That's good news, even if speculation. So, will PS3 fall prey to the worst case scenario, or manage to stay on top (or even second) by the skin of its beautiful, beautiful teeth? Again, the Tokyo Game Show will hopefully give PS3 more positive press.[Edit: changed GTA4 won't be coming ... to GTA4 won't be exclusive to. Thanks, J. Dock]
