doug-creutz
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Analyst predicts that Destiny will sell between 15M and 20M units
I think we all know that Destiny is going to be a very big launch when it happens this September, but one analyst has put a number to that feeling: 15 to 20 million copies sold. Cowen & Company Analyst Doug Creutz has been tracking the progress of Destiny, saying that it has topped the company's rating chart: "We continue to believe that Destiny is a lock to sell at least 15 million copies. And we now view 20 million copies as increasingly likely." Creutz said that Destiny will help to sell PlayStation 4 and Xbox One consoles and predicted that the game will be purchased alongside with many of them. He also noted that Destiny may cannibalize sales from the Call of Duty franchise.
Report: Wii U game sales behind Wii, GameCube
Looking at the December NPD results, you may have noticed that the 3DS's New Super Mario Bros. 2 placed in the top ten sellers in the US, but New Super Mario Bros. U was nowhere to be found, nor was any other Wii U exclusive.Analyst Doug Creutz of Cowen & Company's interpretation of the Wii U's early software sales is troubling. "Totals for the November-December period were -43% lower than software sales for the Wii and -50% lower than those for the GameCube," Creutz reports. It's not the most auspicious start for the new hardware. The only US Wii U software sales number to be released by Nintendo is 580,000 units of New Super Mario Bros. U, sold in November and December.Worth noting is that the Wii U offers full games through its eShop, sales of which would not be counted toward NPD software sales totals. Like all digital game sales, the numbers are unknown, but there is some unknown additional commerce taking place that wasn't on the Wii and GameCube.Joystiq has contacted Nintendo for a comment on the report, but has yet to hear back at the time of publishing.
Analyst says SWTOR subs peaked at 1.7 million, now declining
Stop us if you've heard this one before. Expensive themepark MMO launches to critical and fan acclaim (minus a healthy contingent of naysayers, of course). A few months after launch, rumors of bleeding subscriptions abound, followed by analyst predictions of... well, business as usual. Gamasutra reports on one such forecast for Star Wars: The Old Republic by Cowen and Company. Analyst Doug Creutz says that though TOR's subs peaked at 1.7 million in February, he expects them to drop to around 1.25 million by March of 2013. The analysis is based on statistics gleaned from TorStatus.net, which tracks daily users as opposed to sub numbers. Electronic Arts' recent SWTOR promotional blitz also factored into the report. "While the game got off to a good start, the relatively light amount of end-game content does appear to be taking a toll," Creutz wrote.
Analyst: Casual games not bad for the core
First reaction: lolwhut? Of course casual gamerz haven't hurt the hardcore. Hardcore have mad skillz. Second, more thoughtful reaction: Oh -- Cowen and Company's Doug Creutz was speaking in terms of business. That makes a little more sense. Speaking to Edge, Creutz espoused his belief that "non-traditional" formats like the iPhone and social gaming have not hurt the core gaming market. Rather, said Creutz, "We believe that these newer gaming media represent a distinct and non-competitive market segment from console gaming, which is dominated by the core gamer." He elaborated that while casual titles didn't fare as well in 2009, the sales of core titles were still strong (a reasonable belief). According to Creutz, the "difficulties" faced by the industry are the result of the "relatively slow uptake" of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360, thanks in large part to their high price points. However, now that both the PS3 and 360 have reached mass market prices, the console cycle will "reaccelerate to the benefit of the publishers that are positioned to take advantage." Creutz sentiments seem to be in line with many of the major game publishers, as both Capcom and EA have expressed dissatisfaction with the Wii market, with a Capcom spokesperson outright declaring, "If you're not Nintendo, it does seem harder to make money on the Wii today compared to the PS3 and the Xbox 360". Meanwhile, Ubisoft has announced that it plans to "refocus" its efforts on the Xbox 360 and PS3 in 2010.
Analyst: Metacritic scores don't drive success
The idea that review scores don't matter is nothing new around Joystiq. We've seen the argument made by EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, specifically in reference to DS games. Michael Pachter and Peter Moore have leveled the same claim at Wii games as well. Now, Cowen Group's Doug Creutz tells Gamasutra that the score generated by aggregators like Metacritic is the least important factor in how well a game performs. Creutz notes that scores can be "somewhat predictive" of a game's success, but are "unlikely in and of themselves to drive or undermine the success of a game." He then mentions the industry scuttlebutt that many publishers work very hard to jockey scores, saying that publishers' time would be better spent on development instead of "grade-grubbing." The major factors in purchasing decisions, according to Creutz, are genre, whether a player liked the previous game in a series and, unsurprisingly, price. So there you have it publishers, to be successful, all you have to do is make a sequel to a popular game in a genre that a lot of people like. And make it cheap. If that's not possible, two out of three ain't bad.
Analyst: Don't expect price cuts to help hardware sales
According to Cowan and Company analyst Doug Creutz, expected price cuts for all major consoles won't stimulate sales as much as previous cuts have in the past, reports GI.biz. The reason, according to Creutz, is increased "pressure on consumers" brought on by the current economic climate. That said, Creutz still believes that price cuts are imminent, specifically a $100 cut to the PS3, $50 from the Wii and a new $300 price for the Xbox 360.Of course, given the rumors and evidence flying around the web these days, you don't really need an analyst to tell you that. Creutz expects price drop announcements as early as the Gamescom convention next week. (Joystiq's Magic 8-Ball strongly agrees.)On the software side of things, Creutz expects year-over-year sales to continue to decline, starting with the incoming July NPD numbers. Another drop will occur in August, but things may turn around in September because nothing gets the cash flowing like Guitar Hero and Halo.
Analyst: PlayStation Motion Controller better for core gamers than Natal
Hey, remember that Gamasutra feature where Michael Pachter said Xbox Twitter was the greatest thing of E3? Yeah, well in that very same feature, Cowen and Company analyst Doug Creutz had some choice words for the PlayStation Motion Controller. Specifically, Creutz believes that while Project Natal may have gotten the bulk of E3 coverage, the PlayStation Motion Controller is the better peripheral for hardcore gamers."Natal appeared to me to be a technological solution in search of a problem," said Creutz. "I had a very hard time envisioning playing Modern Warfare 3 using Natal," he said, adding, "By contrast, I had a very easy time envisioning it (and enjoying it) using Sony's control/motion capture scheme." Creutz stated that Microsoft is likely trying to snag some of the Wii's casual marketshare -- "a difficult proposition given that you're essentially asking casual gamers to upgrade twice during the cycle," according to Creutz -- while Sony's device caters more to the core gaming demographic.We must point out that neither Project Natal nor the PlayStation Motion Controller are finished products, so there's no telling how they might be implemented in future games. For example, there's no reason that Natal couldn't make use of both motion sensing and traditional control, similar to Sony's device. Furthermore, we'd say Sony is probably just as keen to capture some of the casual market as Microsoft.
Analyst: Investing in Wii development is 'fool's gold'
Cowen & Company's Doug Creutz thinks the Nintendo Wii installed base numbers are misleading and he's not afraid to tell the world. When asked by Gamasutra which system developers are best off investing in, he said, "The choice here is really between investing for the Xbox 360 and PS3 -- since their capabilities are fairly similar -- or the Wii. I would caution investors and developers that the larger installed base of the Wii is really a bit of a red herring." Creutz explained that while there are 19 million Wiis on the loose in the US, the combined numbers for Xbox 360 and PS3 still edge out the Wii by 3 million units. Creutz continued, "I think the Wii installed base represents, to a certain extent, fool's gold for someone looking to invest in video game development." We'll keep that in mind once we get Joystiq Publishing off the ground.
SWTOR might be EA's best chance at improving profitability
In a recent article on Gamasutra, Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz discussed EA's disappointing performance of late, blaming the software giant's "inability to develop hit core-gamer console titles". This has led to him significantly lowering his estimates for their 2009 earnings. The analyst's reportings are fairly doom-and-gloom, but he did mention A New Hope for the company: Star Wars: The Old Republic.EA acquired BioWare, the developers of SWTOR, back in October last year. Creutz is of the belief that EA has really messed up their console campaign this generation, and SWTOR could be the "best chance" they have to increase profitability -- that is, if it can hold its own against the reigning champ World of Warcraft. We have faith that BioWare will be able to bring out a quality MMO, and you couldn't ask for a better IP. It really all depends on how well the title will have to do to be of any use to EA -- obviously better than Warhammer Online, which did not even earn a mention in the analyst's report.
Analyst: World Tour demand still high, supplies still down
Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz knows the public and, according to him, they want Guitar Hero: World Tour. Even though the guitar bundle for the game has been discounted like crazy over the last week (and selling just as crazy, we assume), he says that most folks are looking for the full band kit, which is difficult to find on store shelves."Supply of the full band kit version at all retail locations was very tight, with the title selling out quickly," Creutz said, even pointing to online resellers who continue to resell the full band kit SKU for ridiculous sums of money. "This picture of high demand and tight supply remains consistent with our previous channel checks."If these supplies were higher, Activision would be making a lot more money off the title. As it is, however, the company must mostly rely on sales of the game itself and the other guitar bundle SKU.%Gallery-23491%
Is the Wii 'inhospitable' for third-party publishers?
At least one analyst thinks it is, and he's not short of support. Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz's comments were prompted by the latest NPD figures, in which the Xbox 360, PS3, and PlayStation 2 versions of Madden NFL 09 hogged the top three positions, with the Wii version relegated to ninth place, behind Wii Play, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart Wii. "We continue to believe that the Wii is a relatively inhospitable platform for third-party publishers," said Creutz. Is he stating the obvious, or does the success of certain third-party titles suggest otherwise? In the past, we've found many fans pin the blame for low third-party sales on third-party developers, suggesting that better quality products would compete with Nintendo's own wares. Can the same be said, however, when even critically acclaimed titles such as No More Heroes and Zack & Wiki sell poorly?
