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Analyst predicts a Mass Effect MMO could top The Old Republic
Still having geek dreams about a Mass Effect MMO? Your flights of fancy have another advocate today, as an analyst thinks it could be not only feasible but extremely profitable to boot. In a recent investor's note, Janco Partners' Mike Hickey predicted that a hypothetical Mass Effect MMO could make more money for Electronic Arts than Star Wars: The Old Republic will. Hickey made this claim based on the strength of BioWare's science-fiction series and the historical weakness of Star Wars games: "Looking forward, we believe BioWare could develop an MMO based on their highly successful Mass Effect franchise, which should have a considerably better (relative Star Wars MMO) margin profile, given the dilutive nature of the LucasArts royalty." So far, BioWare's been fairly coy on the subject of a possible Mass Effect online game, although it hasn't ruled out the possibility.
Analyst says one million subscribers are attainable for SWTOR
At the Electronic Arts fourth-quarter shareholders conference earlier this year, CEO John Riccitiello stated this about his soon-to-be-released MMORPG Star Wars: The Old Republic: "At half a million subscribers, the game is substantially profitable, but it's not the kind of thing we would write home about. Anything north of a million subscribers, it's a very profitable business." This has been questioned by fans and shareholders alike as all wonder whether the game could actually reach the goal of one million subscribers. According to Janco analyst Mike Hickey, the answer is yes! Gaming business website Gamasutra quoted Hickey as saying that Janco "suspect[s] a willingness from investors to believe [500,000] to 1 million Star Wars MMO subscribers is an attainable target." Hickey has been focused on games and the gaming industry for some time now, specifically on EA, so the rise and fall of EA-published Warhammer Online cannot be off his radar when he makes his predictions about SWTOR. Ultimately, Hickey states that one million subscribers will mean $161.9 million in gross sales and up to $35 million in total profit for EA if his prediction is true. Although there is still no exact release date for Star Wars: The Old Republic, we will know how close to the mark Hickey's prediction is when the game launches later this year.
Could EA's history make investors wary about SWTOR?
According to a report on Gamasutra, investors have been slow to support Electronic Arts in its latest MMORPG endeavor, Star Wars: The Old Republic. The article released today cites Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey as saying, "We believe many investors are betting against SWTOR achieving market success, provided the company's (Warhammer Online from Mythic) and industry's track record at releasing successful new MMOs." WAR and of course All Points Bulletin being the latest MMOs from EA could make a potential investor a bit gun-shy about placing his money into another game of the same genre. Investors are not just concerned with the initial sales of SWTOR but also the long-term success of the game. The article uses the sales trend of WAR as an example. The first week's sales of WAR topped at 500,000 subscriptions, which is impressive for any MMO, yet subscriptions did not stick as customer satisfaction plummeted. If an investor is not familiar with BioWare's past successes or if he happens to view BioWare as a rookie in the MMO genre, then his wariness is clearly understandable. Today, Mike Hickey is calling Electronic Arts a "buy," but that may change if investors continue to see EA as a risky investment.
F2P giant Perfect World experiencing financial downturn
It's rare to hear news of under-performing free-to-play titles these days, but Gamasutra is running a piece on the recent stumble of industry titan Perfect World Entertainment. The Chinese online game maker recently saw its third quarter profits fall 28.8 percent to $31.9 million and also experienced a stock price dip of 16.2 percent. According to the report, PWE's television and film business revenues surpassed expectations and helped keep the company profitable, but the performance of the online gaming division took a notable downturn (due in part to the weak returns on Battle of the Immortals). Though PWE predicts a one to five percent gaming growth spurt in the fourth quarter of 2010, analyst firm Janco Partners is decidedly less optimistic. "Aggregate portfolio online game portfolio metrics continue to disappoint and we're not confident new game releases will stabilize a decidedly negative performance trend," the firm said. You'll find all the details at Gamasutra.
Analyst: Call of Duty Online could make $100 million in its first year
Rumors have been flying around about a subscription-based Call of Duty game for some time now -- Activision boss Bobby Kotick loves the idea, because he loves money, and the company's other subscription-based game, World of Warcraft, is quite the cash-printing machine. So why not go down that road? Many still believe Activision will, including Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey. With the publisher's plans to break into China and Korea, Hickey told IndustryGamers he sees Call of Duty as the perfect platform for accomplishing that goal and strengthening ties with NetEase, the online powerhouse of the Chinese market. "We expect the Company [NetEase] could extend their relationship with Activision Blizzard, by establishing an additional license to operate Call of Duty Online in China and Blizzard's unannounced MMO, which will likely leverage their Battle.net platform," he said. "The eventuality of COD in China could bring an additional +$50 to +$100 million in sales and +$0.15 to +$0.30 in EPS in its first year of operation." EPS, to clarify, is short for "earnings per share." Who knows what's in store for the future, but for now, rest assured: you won't ever have to fork over extra cash to play Modern Warfare 2 online.
Analyst: Time for another Wii price drop
Somebody had to be the first to start it up again. Last year, analysts clamored for months about the need for a Wii price drop, a din Nintendo quelled by actually dropping the price of the Wii to $200. On Industry Gamers, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey has kicked off the next round of calling for a discount, declaring that Nintendo needs to cut the price of the console to $150 to stop the declining sales and fill out as much of its install base as it can before its competitors' motion controls hit the market. "We believe they also need to generate strong hardware sales momentum into their competitors release," Hickey said, "or face the draconian consumer perception of the Wii having a dramatically reduced entertainment value proposition over a faded technology innovation; Rock Band anyone?" In other words, with compelling motion control devices on the way from Microsoft and Sony, Nintendo needs to do something drastic to prevent the Wii from slipping from #1 to #1 by a smaller margin.
Sims 3 online features revealed, analyst says game could sell 4m in '09
EA announced all of The Sims 3's community and microtransaction features today. TheSims3.com will become the hub site for all community and marketing features when the game births June 2. Players can use "The Exchange," which allows megalomaniacs to search and browse content, plus the site also allows the creation of movies and stories. More importantly for EA, there is also "The Sims 3 Store," an online retail location where users spend real money for SimPoints, which grants access to premium content.Meanwhile, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey predicts that Sims 3 could sell over 4 million units in 2009, reports Gamasutra. Hickey has no estimate about how much The Sims 3 Store's premium content will add to the EA coffers. Seriously, though, parents: watch that credit card when little Susie or Michael starts begging for plaid furniture for their virtual dollhouse.Source - The Sims 3 Full Online Feature SetSource - Analyst: Sims 3 Could Sell 4 Million In '09
Sony: Blu-ray will always be part of PS3
Last month, Janco analyst Mike Hickey predicted a PS3 price drop, driven by a new, cheaper model without a Blu-ray drive. In a statement to Silicon Alley Insider, Sony's Kim Nguyen took on the new hardware rumor, basically killing it for anyone who believes Sony PR: "That would pretty much destroy the PS3's backbone, our games were built on Blu-ray." Nguyen then said the fairly clear, "Quote that: Blu-ray will always be part of PS3." While a cheaper PS3 may be nice, we really don't think Sony would want to harm its movie business by taking the Blu-ray capability out of its best-known Blu-ray player. Sony also denied the price drop in general, as well as an annual fee for an online gaming service. "Online gaming is like a First Amendment right," Sony's Susan Panico said.[Via VG247]
Analyst: THQ has 50% chance of bankruptcy
THQ is barely hanging on, according to Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey, who sees the company's chances of going bankrupt at 50/50. Speaking with the LA Business Journal, the prognosticator points out the publisher currently has mediocre product and is losing cash like it's battling Midway for an award in corporate ineptitude.THQ CEO Brian Farrell says that talk of an acquisition or bankruptcy "makes for good print and sells newspapers," but notes that the company currently has a plan to get through this tough time. THQ's licensed titles, which are footing some of the blame for the current predicament, have always formed a powerhouse, but those titles don't provide the margins of original games. Currently, the company's fate rests on the performance of Dawn of War 2 and ... 50 Cent: Blood on the Sand.[via GI.biz]
Analyst: PS3 price cut could happen very soon
According to Janco analyst Mike Hickey, Sony could be set to announce a new, lower price point for the PS3 in the next few days. He says Sony needs to slash $100 off the price of the console to "effectively restart unit velocity at retail." He sees this cut taking effect in "April or by June at the latest." Without the cut, he predicts PS3 sales will continue to steadily decline.There's also speculation regarding a potential Blu-ray-less PS3, which would "enable them to make the aforementioned hardware price reduction," though that sounds kind of ridiculous. Without all of that Blu-ray goodness, how are you supposed to play any software on the thing? It's not like people will go running out to buy a cheaper PS3 that will only play PS2, PSOne and PSN games, after all.[Via Yahoo Tech]
Analyst: Spore 'likely' delayed until later in '08; EA guidance incorrect
Before Electronic Arts lays down its third quarter earnings in a couple days, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey believes it "likely" that Spore will move from the guidance EA gave of a March/April release to the second half of '08. This also is corroborated by reports earlier this month when Spore was announced for simultaneous release on Mac and PC.But what's another Spore delay at this point? We were a bit surprised (and skeptical) when Will Wright said Spore was six months from release last October. Maybe Hickey is totally wrong and Wright will pull a six-legged exoskeletoned gelatinopod from his hat?
