ScreenDigest
Latest
Analyst: Blu-ray can't stop video sales slump, sees modest growth in 2010
As frequently predicted, Blu-ray hasn't been enough to make up for sagging DVD sales, as a new Screen Digest report indicates a 4.8 percent slide worldwide last year, falling more than $2.6 billion. After plateauing approaching 2007, disc sales have been falling ever since and even Blu-ray's $482 million contribution can't hold up the slack. Still, it's looking at online rentals like Lovefilm and Quickflix to make up for some of the rental losses internationally, but don't expect Blu-ray to help grow the market at all until at least 2010. Of course, the company did also predict the format war would remain stalemated just weeks before Warner ended the whole thing, so we'd keep a grain of salt handy while reading.[Via Financial Times]
Analysts predict PSP sales of 67 million by 2011
Here's another analyst story for you to chew on. Screen Digest is predicting that Sony will sell 67 million PSP systems by 2011. Certainly, that's an impressive figure. It's dwarfed by DS's predicted sales of 112 million, but certainly 67 million consoles is nothing to scoff at. In fact, if Sony's able to sell as many systems as predicted, it will have sold more systems in its lifetime than the industry-defining NES (62 million), SNES, N64, Genesis, Xbox, Gamecube, Dreamcast and Saturn. Certainly, that's a remarkable achievement for Sony's first entry into the handheld arena.[Via Next Gen]
Will rising development costs hinder innovation?
There's an interesting piece over at CVG worth bringing on the PS3 Fanboy front. An analyst actually stopped making console guesstimations and thought about the developers end of the equation for a bit. The man, Ed Barton from Screen Digest, called the "risk reduction strategy" of focusing on franchise sequels and multi-platform titles will choke the innovation out of the gaming industry.But it's not just developers to blame -- consumers widely ignore the innovative titles that are specific to one platform (see Ico) but will eat up a franchise title with minor improvements over the last iteration (see Devil May Cry, EA Sports games, etc). In a contrasting view, those games that are now franchises did indeed start out innovative -- there was nothing like DMC before it, but now it's a cash cow. Sort of. It's breaking into the franchise market by creating an innovative title that's key, right? That's my aside, but let's continue on Ed Barton's rant.Barton talks about the PS3 briefly, calling it the one system that will take the longest to exploit the potential of because of the multi-platform attitude of developers. Since each system this generation is so different, he says, the one that stands apart (my words) will take the longest mature. Good stuff. What do you guys think? Will original titles fade out completely, or is making an original title the only way to break into making successful sequels and a franchise out of what was once innovative?
Gamasutra asks: "Is there anything wrong with the PSP?"
We'd like to think that there's nothing wrong with our beloved handheld. However, the truth is that many people, misinformed or not, do not believe in Sony's platform. Gamasutra asked a number of industry professionals about what they think is wrong about PSP, if there is anything at all. David Cole from DFC Intelligence points out that the price drop is a good step, but that's not enough. "I think a new form factor is needed more than a price cut." Ed Barton from Screen Digest is frustrated at the constant comparisons to Nintendo DS: "We forecast that the global installed base of PSP users will be around 29 million at the end of 2007, generating $1.9 billion in software sales. Lifetime software sales at the end of 2007 will be around $4.5 billion. If this is 'failing,' then failure just got a huge brand makeover." Mike Wolf from ABI Research thinks that anti-Sony fanboyism runs wild due to high expectations placed on Sony ... due to their ambitious claims. "I believe the device's perceived 'failure' by some is due to the device struggling to live up to Sony's own marketing of the product, much like what the PS3 is going through today." I completely agree with many of the things these professionals have to say about PSP. It's true that PSP is certainly not a failure, but it could've been far more successful as well. Sony has made a ton of mistakes this life cycle, but as they've been recently showing, things can easily change with a refocused effort.
Analyst #198744365 says: PS3 will blast rivals away in Europe
To answer your question, yes, we really did count every analyst up to this point. What do you think we do in our off-time anyway? In all seriousness, The Times have released an article stating this fun point: "Sony is expected to sell up to 1.5 million of its PlayStation 3 consoles in Britain this year, putting it on track to outstrip Nintendo's cheaper Wii within 12 to 18 months of its launch." Hmm, in all of Europe, sure, but in the world? Maybe not so much.But perhaps it will apply to the whole world. Anaylst Nick Parker from Screen Digest said this about the PS3's launch and expected sales: "The lack of shortage is supply driven; what Sony has shipped will sell. We estimate that Sony will sell around 4 million units in Europe this year, with 1 to 1.5 million in the UK." Well, that's a pretty noble target to be estimating. Not that we take these guys' word as law, but do you think this is a plausible outcome? Will the PS3 sell over 6 million units before year's end?
