Joystiq predicts 2006: the predictioning

It's that time of year again, when sagacious video game pundits scratch their scholarly heads and stroke their scholarly beards while gazing into their crystal balls to forecast, often with uncanny accuracy and insight, the resolution of industry occurrences, and suggest corollaries thereof.

Unfortunately, none of these savants were available, or even existed, for us to use, so we took it upon ourselves to fill the role as best we could. In collaboration with the standing (and as yet, still valid!) predictions of PSP Fanboy, DS Fanboy, and Xbox 360 Fanboy, we present... drum roll, please:

Joystiq's predicts 2006: the predictioning.

HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray

Format wars have been a staple of the consumer electronics world since X vs Y, through VHS vs. Betamax, DVD dash R vs. DVD plus R, and now we stand at the epicenter of the largest battle yet: HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray. Industry giants, including generals Sony and Toshiba, have squared off against each other, making next generation video game consoles their strategic battlefield. While there are advantages to both formats, and concessions have been made by each group to woo reticent movie studios to their offering, there is still no clear winner. With the world's largest software company, Microsoft, adamantly supporting the HD-DVD standard -- which includes their own iHD interface blah blah blah -- you can be certain their upcoming, ubiquitous Windows operating system, Vista, will be heavy on the HD-DVD features and comparatively light on the Blu-Ray features, at least out of the box.

Microsoft and Sony are playing a very expensive game of next-generation optical media "chicken." As the weight of these massive corporations figuratively hurtle towards each other, stoic and confident, they're risking not only the significant investment in a platform that may not prove victorious, but they're also risking the good will of consumers, who rely on them to provide not only the best technology, but the most feasible one.

We're setting ourselves up for failure right out the gate, but... our prediction: someone will veer off the road. Microsoft's Bill Gates told Engadget that it wasn't too late for unification. Although Sony is confident that inclusion of Blu-Ray will provide a powerful incentive for consumers to adopt their console, the math on this calculated risk won't work out. It'll be HD-Ray.


Video Game Legislation

Legal battles continue to surface all over the country, in both state and federal legislation. Republicans and Democrats alike have criticized the violence in certain video games, and are proposing laws to curb the sale of these games to minors. While many game players will see the value in such legislation, the fear is that once certain games are deemed inappropriate -- under someone else’s standards -- by the government, many retailers may be unwilling to promote or even carry those titles. Threatened with the loss of valuable shelf space in retailers, such as the conservative mega-retailer Wal*Mart, many publishers may be reluctant to release games with controversial subject matter. With increased development costs, which are only expected to rise, the industry is oriented in such a way that losing these retailers could prevent games from ever reaching profitability.

Our prediction: The debate over violent video games will become more pronounced as politicians seek political favor for their "tough on games" stance in November's important elections. Democrats will seek to dispel the notion they are lax on family and moral values by being especially vociferous in their attacks on the video game industry. Video games will become a focal point of the culture wars. Politicians from both camps preach to a scaremongering and irresponsible media, who will disseminate this message to two audiences: the uninformed, who are eager to allocate culpability according to the shortcomings they perceive in society; and the tens of millions of video gamers, over 84% of whom are above voting age, who will shake their heads and stand up for themselves.


Downloadable Content

Microsoft's Xbox Live Arcade service has been a huge hit around the nonexistent Joystiq offices. Whether it's Geometry Wars, Hexic, Outpost: Kaloki, or just imagining Street Fighter II Hyper Fighting, we're believers. Hell, we're downright evangelical about it, ready to sing its praises in hymn form and proselytize about the future of content distribution. We know Microsoft agrees and we know Nintendo sees a gold mine in their back-catalog (a quick glance at their official "Revolution" site and you'll see they promise "Decades of Games"). The normally boastful Sony has been uncharacteristically quiet about the PS3, while the historically taciturn Nintendo has masterfully played the part of provocateur, periodically teasing us with glimpses of their one handed wonder, methods of old-school distribution, and promises of a gaming revolution.

We predict: Microsoft will continue to toe the waters of downloadable content by releasing increasingly sophisticated Arcade titles, and more downloadable add-ons for retail products. Expect the delivery of (or announcement of) downloadable games. We anticipate something episodic, which will not only fit better on the 360's anemic hard drive and take full advantage of the distribution model, but will assuage fears that they plan to bypass retailers entirely... that's the plan for next year!

Meanwhile Nintendo's "virtual console" will be an immediate and irrefutable hit! Former-gamers will trip over themselves to access the nostalgia drenched games of their youth, while current gamers will revel in reliving the golden age of the 8-bit and 16-bit Nintendo and Sega consoles.

Sony's no dummy. You can be sure they have been paying attention to these developments and have something in the works. Our guess: it won't be as ambitious, but will satisfy the casual downloader with mainstays like solitaire or an Ape Escape minigame.


The Revolution
The DS was initially thought to be a stopgap measure -- Nintendo's jury-rigged Hail Mary to blunt the onslaught of Sony's upcoming handheld wunderkind. We all scoffed at its modest design, its "unique" feature set, and patted Nintendo on the head, laughing quietly. Nintendo had become your senile uncle, so full of good intentions, but clearly off his meds. A little over a year later and Nintendo is sitting tall, right where they always were, atop the throne of most-popular console, right where their Game Boy systems have placed them for the last 15 years.

Our prediction: The Nintendo Revolution will follow the exact same trajectory. The modest specs coupled with a "unique" feature set will prove to be a difficult sell against the ultra powerful Xbox 360 and PS3... until developers hit their stride. It may take months, but one game will eventually appear that will be heralded as a must have, followed by another and another and another. Developers will clamor to develop games for it! Compared to the laborious task of creating high-def content that takes full advantage of those multi-cored monster processors, developing for the Revolution will be leisurely, a respite from the day to day of developing for the other next-gen consoles. Expect many big name designers, eager to experiment, to do Revolution side-projects in between AAA titles. Nintendo may not get all the AAA ports, but they couldn't ask for more.


The PlayStation 3
What about Sony then? All we know is that the PS3 will be immensely powerful, capable of proving that P=NP, creating cold fusion, and harnessing the power of the Sun. What is their online strategy, what does it really look like, when will the system launch? Expect all these questions to be answered before E3, most likely at the upcoming PS3 Developer's conference in March... but why wait until then?

We predict: As we know, Sony will launch with an online service, though don't expect anything nearly as ambitious as Xbox Live or even NiWiFi. This will be a bullet point response, to counter a key selling point of the Xbox 360. Also expect the appearance of the console to be smaller, with more ventilation. Sony knows design, and you can be sure that box has been undergoing efficiency tweaks since day one. To save space, an enormous external powerbrick will probably be necessary, removing an effective barb from the tool belt of PS3 fanboys everywhere (sorry guys). The system will launch this spring in Japan to be followed later, as is traditional, by a fall North American release. Sorry Europe, better luck next year!

The PS3 will encounter the exact sort of production delays that plagued the Xbox 360 and, more notably, its own kid brother, the PS2. Having streamlined its currently troubled manufacturing process, Microsoft will be able to strike Sony while they're down. To compound the problem, the launch titles will recall both the 360 and PS2 launch titles: no killer-app. As long as Sony has better first party offerings than FantaVision 2, they should be able to weather the storm and assume their place atop the next-gen console throne.


The Games
To turn a phrase, It's the games, stupid! Without great games, all the great hardware in the world is for naught! So what titles are we anticipating in 2006? Sequels, of course! While there will undoubtedly be plenty of great original content that will surprise and delight us, the most anticipated titles, almost by definition, are commonly sequels.

Killzone 2 will not make the PS3 launch, but we will get our eyes on it long before then. While it still impresses, don't expect anything approaching the detail of last year's demo video. Metal Gear Solid 4 will also not make the PS3 launch but, like Metal Gear Solid 2, will ultimately look every bit as good as the trailer. GTA4 will also not make the PS3 launch, but it will be a PS3 exclusive. Expect the graphically antiquated franchise to turn the PS3 all the way up to 11. It will look so good you'll be able to see steam coming off that hot coffee.

And what about Halo 3? Is the PlayStation 3 going to walk right into Microsoft's killer-app? No way. Without any killer-apps ready for the PS3's launch, Microsoft will sit on Halo 3, timing the release to coincide with the upcoming movie in 2007.

Nintendo's Revolution will launch with at least one major title, and don't be surprised if it's the long anticipated Mario 128. Third party developers will look to the little plumber in red to lead the way and create much of the "language" for the Revolution's gameplay.

And no, Duke Nukem Forever will not be released... ever.


Handhelds
Portables had a record year in '05, with game sales increasing 42% over 2004. The Game Boy Advance continues to do gangbuster business with a younger crowd, while the DS and PSP are reuniting older gamers with portable consoles.

While the DS has been handily embarrassing the PSP thus far, expect the PSP to have a very strong second year. As more developers get acquainted with, and inspired by, the hardware we'll reap the benefits with more, and better, games. As more games become available, we expect people will increasingly use their PSPs for playing games instead of watching overpriced UMDs.

Against all expectations, the DS will continue to sell, driven by its lower price and consistently unique games. Due to the continued success of the unit, any plans to launch a next-generation Game Boy will be delayed until well after the Revolution launch, in 2007.

Redesigns

In order to maintain and encourage sales of the handhelds, redesigns will become routine. We already expect Nintendo to follow their Game Boy strategy that has proven so effective, and their plan for a DS redesign is a poorly kept secret.

Sony is also a true believer in redesigns, after seeing PS2 sales skyrocket with the introduction of the slimline. Expect PSP v2 to introduce reduced power consumption, leading to greatly improved battery life and, in a bid to siphon sales away from Apple's unstoppable iPod, they'll include a hard drive for enhanced multimedia functionality. Because of the need for a lower priced unit, Sony may opt to have a multi-tiered product line, with the current PSP v1 becoming the base unit, while PSP v2 will cost more and deliver enhanced multimedia functionality.


PC Gaming / Vista

We know Vista, Microsoft's upcoming operating system, will have plenty of new features for gamers. What they haven't advertised yet, however, is the extensive Xbox 360 integration they've got up their sleeve. XBL features like friends lists will be integrated into the new Windows Messenger, while some XBLA titles will be simultaneously available for your playing on your PC. Cross-platform multiplayer, integrated leaderboards, and enhanced multimedia functions, will not only help drive sales of the Xbox 360 and improve the overall XBL experience, but will also encourage operating system upgrades, Microsoft's bread and butter.


Mac Gaming / MacIntel

With Apple's recent turn to the dark side switch to Intel chips, one of the primary difficulties of porting games to Mac OS has been removed. Developers are hopeful that the new platform will accelerate things; Ryan Gordon of Epic Games said, "this actually makes the job of moving games to the Mac easier...you're now dealing with moving code to Mac frameworks and not to an otherwise alien architecture."

We predict: the combination of the increasing popularity of the Mac platform, more powerful Intel hardware and graphics systems, and reduced porting costs, should conspire to increase the viability of the Mac as a legitimate gaming platform. Not only will we begin to see games appear sooner on the Mac, we will see more of them as more gamers learn to accept Macs.


Conclusion
Some we're pretty sure about, others we're positive about, while others still we're so certain of, we'll eat this blog post if they don't play out. There might be one or two that snuck in there, that we couldn't possibly be held responsible for, of course. You'll have to wait until 2007 before we're saying which ones are which.

There you have it, folks: 2006 in video games! And if you think this year was is cool, you won't believe what we saw in our crystal balls for 2007. Two words: cerebral implants!