Oh, look. Another independent analyst stepped up to predict the outcome of the console war. This time it's Boston-based Yankee Group, and they're in with a win for Sony. According to their report, Sony will outsell the competition with 44% of the market share, and Nintendo will suffer a devastating loss in the "war" with 16% market share. They have Microsoft closing in on Sony with 40%.
The biggest (it was a tough call) problem with this report, from our fan-centric perspective, is not the numbers or the predictions or anything else. It is the fact that Wii is being compared to the GameCube. Sure, there are similarities in hardware. But for the purpose of comparing market share? That's not the same ballpark. It may not even be the same game. If a comparison must be drawn, look instead to the Nintendo DS. Nintendo has opened a new world of potential by looking beyond just the gaming community. The proof is in the DS -- and unless there's some outrageous mistake on an epic scale in Nintendo's future, it's probably a safe bet that Wii will be nothing like the GameCube. Whether or not it'll fare better in the console wars is still somewhat up in the air (though it has price on its side), but comparing the two from a marketing perspective is something of a stretch. And predicting that the Wii will sell fewer units than the GameCube's 21 million? That's laughable.
As for all these predictions ... in 2011, if anyone was right, will we even care?
[Update 1: 12 is totally not 21.]