Philip Swann at TV Predictions has given us yet another prognostication for the upcoming year, that Blu-ray will be the winner in the next-gen format war that's been brewing -- for us, anyway -- for well over a year. He gives five reasons why the Blu-ray format will come out on top. I've given them a quick rundown as well as played Devil's Advocate for why each reason might not make any sense.
- Studio support
- Vast majority of studios support Blu-ray -- although not all are exclusive, and the title count still weighs pretty heavily in HD DVD's favor
- Almost surely what Sony is hoping will propel their division's sales of Blu-ray devices, since their own player has been delayed many many times, but will the purported 400,000 units to be available on launch day even make a difference? And what about the $199 Xbox 360 add-on and recently-announced 1080p support?
- Prices should come down drastically on the players as time passes, reducing the current 100% cost differential, but will it be enough if people are perfectly happy with HD DVD?
- The studios will begin to feel pressure to pick one side and stick with it. Don't forget this could work just as easily against Blu-ray if sales don't catch up to expected levels for BR discs.
- Peace Treaty
- Supposedly Blu-ray will gain the momentum it needs to force Toshiba to the bargaining table, but we aren't totally sold on that one. There is a huge vested interest in keeping HD DVD alive by Microsoft, Toshiba, even some of the studios. While Swann still sees a compromise or merger of some sort in 2007, we can easily see a war of attrition continuing for many years.
Is Swanni's reasoning sound, or is he just pulling this out of thin air to give us something to