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Another analyst: Wii will beat the other things this holiday


We were initially going to suggest that opposing analysts Jesse Divnich and Michael Pachter engage in battle to establish this holiday's winner (or Wii-ner, as it were), but this line of thought invariably winds up with two people hurling calculators across the room, yelling percentages and excitedly pointing at bar graphs. Not a very exciting showdown, really.

Quite unlike this holiday's battle royale, with Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft sending out their best troops to clash for consumer cash. While Pachter believes the Xbox 360 will come out on top this month amidst the pile of price-slashed consoles, simExchange analyst Jesse Divnich reckons the Wii will continue to be the top seller from now until the end of the year. "There is no cost effective strategy that either Sony or Microsoft could implement this late in the season to change the minds of the consumers," said Divnich. "The prediction market expects the current home console trend to continue through the holiday season with the Wii leading the pack followed by the Xbox 360 and then the PS3."

Divnich also throws in a prediction regarding the impending battle of the fake bands, predicting higher review scores and higher sales for Activision's Guitar Hero III compared to EA's Rock Band. "Given the month lead Guitar Hero III has and the projected higher review scores; it would take a strong marketing campaign by EA to convince consumers to hold their purchases until Rock Band's release." Of course, the fact that Rock Band is all bundled up until 2008 may also have a deleterious effect on its chances.

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