video game consoles will still give the movie rental service a boost this year, providing over two million new subscribers thanks to the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 and the Nintendo Wii. Pachter suggests that the Xbox 360 will continue to provide 350,000 new subscribers, and the PS3 and the Wii will each turn in around 800,000 new subscribers this year.
But Pachter also says that future growth is limited -- the PS3 doesn't have quite the install base that the Xbox does and, while there are a lot of Wiis out there, Pachter's firm believes that most of those consoles aren't even connected to the Internet ("we estimate fewer than 35%," he writes). So the total new subscribers estimated for 2011 drops down to 900K to 1.2 million. That's still a lot of MST3K downloads -- because come on, if you're watching anything but that on Netflix, you're crazy -- but not enough to keep Netflix's estimated growth from being called "unsustainable."