Andy Zaty of the Bullish Cross blog has done some interesting analysis on the AAPL stock price around Apple's keynote events, and he found that for next week's event, the pattern seems to have fallen apart. During the past four iPhone releases, Apple's stock price has risen in the rumor-filled run up to the unveiling, as investors are taken in by the excitement and interest surrounding the possibility of a new iPhone. Then, once the event happens, the stock usually falls off a bit (though obviously in general, it's risen over time). This time, however, the stock price has fallen, almost 17% from where it was at a few weeks ago.
Why is that? Hard to say -- it could be that most Apple events are pretty mysterious, but on this one, rumors about the iPhone 4S or the iPhone 5 have been flying around for a while already. It's also true, according to the research, that Apple's events don't have as big an effect on the stock price as they used to. As big as AAPL has gotten, more and more investors are somewhat savvy about the whole process, knowing that Apple's fate doesn't really depend on what it announces at any big event.
Still, it'll be interesting to see what happens with the stock price, both over the next week in the lead up and after the event. I don't actually give out financial advice (and this post shouldn't be considered as such, obviously), but I suspect we won't see too big a jump or fall over this keynote -- all indications are that besides a new iPhone announcement, this event will likely be business as usual.