iPad sees first full year decline, is definitely (maybe) doomed

According to a new report from analytics firm IDC, 2014 will mark the first time since its launch that the iPad will see a year-over-year decline in sales. Apple's tablet offerings are expected to show a -12.7% growth figure for 2014. Assuming nothing absurd happens in the last few weeks of the year -- like a half-off sale or some other incentive to get people to take up iPads faster than they ever have before -- that sounds about right, especially if you've been keeping an eye on Apple's quarterly reports which have shown sluggish iPad sales for months now.

Over the same window, Android and Windows tablets are expected to show 16% and 67% growth rates, respectively. Of course, the iPad's Android competitors have the benefit of budget pricing options and, in the case of Windows, the fact that Microsoft has sold so few in years past makes it easy to post a positive growth figure.

So what's the deal with the iPad? We've had Wall Street claiming the iPad needs a life raft for a while now, and while it's certainly true that negative growth numbers aren't ideal, it's important to consider where the dollars that have been spent on iPads in years past have been going in 2014. Spoiler: It's not being spent on an Android or Windows tablet.

This year, the iPhone grew up. The iPhone 6 Plus is one of the best (I'd personally say the best, but for the sake of argument I'll hold back) phablets available, and the smaller iPhone 6 still sports impressive screen real estate at 4.7 inches. I personally know two people -- not tech journalists or gadget gurus, but "normals" as the tech world considers them -- who have upgraded their iPhones for the first time since the 4/4s days, decided on the 6 Plus, and traded in their iPads.

The 6 Plus, and perhaps even the 6 in some cases, is big enough to satisfy the craving for both a smartphone and a tablet, and I've yet to hear a single complaint from anyone in my life who owns one of these new, larger phones. Well, the U2 album thing did cause some unrest, but that's kind of a special case.

This year's iPhone launch saw record sales, and I have to imagine that I'm not unique in knowing at least a couple of people for whom the iPhone 6 makes the iPad more of a luxury than a necessity.

Let me stop you before anyone mentions "cannibalization," because I don't think that's the case here; These are people who have seen no reason to upgrade their phones beyond the iPhone 4/4s. The apps they use still work fine and the iPhone 5 size change wasn't dramatic enough to get them to open their wallets. Now, rather than buying a new iPad mini this year and spending yet another 12 months with their ancient iPhones, they're spending their money on the iPhone 6.

Then there's the Mac, which is enjoying all-time sales highs this year in the face of an overall decline in PC sales. Is the Mac really just a magic piece of hardware, or is the iPad acting as a gateway drug for people who never considered buying a Mac before? I'd guess the latter, and while some have suggested that Apple isn't doing enough to make the iPad seem like a viable PC alternative, I'd argue that if iPad owners decided to buy a MacBook this year instead of upgrading their iPad, Apple won anyway.

So is the iPad "doomed?" If you consider the inevitable wearing off of novelty and eventual desire of iPad owners to invest further in the Apple ecosystem to be a bad thing, then yes. The iPad is definitely doomed.

[Photo credit: bbaunach]