Apple’s first Mac with its own ARM processor will be the 13.3-inch MacBook Pro, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo (via iMore). He believes that production of that model will start in Q4 of 2020, with an A-series powered MacBook Air arriving shortly afterwards either in Q4 2020 or early 2021. Apple will also release 14- and 16-inch versions of the MacBook Pro with its own silicon that will enter production in Q2 or Q3 of 2021.
Apple already said that it would ship its first ARM-powered Macs by the end of 2020, but the big mystery was which model would arrive first. It was logical to expect a more lightly powered, lower-stakes productivity PC like a 12-inch MacBook or MacBook Air. With a MacBook Pro, however, folks will reasonably expect to do heavier chores like photo and video editing.
According to Kuo, the new chips could reduce the cost of Macs and allow Apple to sell them at a lower price. Under that scenario, he predicted Apple could ship 18 to 20 million Macs in 2021, compared to 14.5 to15.5-million units in 2019. Of course, all of this assumes that Kuo is accurate with his predictions and while he often is, he’s not infallible either.