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Gartner analyst says the mouse will be on the outs within five years
As you may have noticed, we're not ones to put much stock in analysts' predictions, especially when they involve the demise of something as entrenched as the mouse in as little as five years. Still, that's the limb Gartner analyst Steve Prentice has walked out on, sort of. While he first qualifies things a bit by saying that the mouse "works fine in the desktop environment but for home entertainment or working on a notebook it's over," he later seems to get considerably more definitive in stating that "the idea of a keyboard with a mouse as a control interface is the paradigm that I am talking about breaking down" (the keyboard, he says, is here to stay). In place of the mouse, Prentice sees things like facial recognition systems, multi-touch, and even devices like OCZ's mind-reading Neural Interface Actuator taking over. Now, if you'll excuse us, we're going to start practicing thinking really hard so we don't get tripped up during the transition.[Via TrustedReviews]
Worldwide PCs in use surpass 1 billion, next billion to come in 2014
So, we hear that Planet Earth is home to four billion phone lines. Now it can claim to house over one billion installed PCs -- what do those neighboring planets have on that, huh? According to research firm Gartner, the number of "installed PCs worldwide has surpassed 1 billion units," and it estimates that said figure is growing at around 12-percent annually. Should this trend continue, we'll be reporting on 2 billion sometime during 2014. It should be noted that this figure accounts for computers in use rather than units shipped, and while the current ratio remains slanted towards mature markets, Gartner expects emerging markets to (expectedly) account for a larger share as we climb to 2 billion. Unsurprisingly, the firm also suggests that around 180 million PCs will be replaced this year, with around 35 million of those hitting landfills "with little or no regard for their toxic content." Kind of puts a damper on things, wouldn't you say?[Via Reuters, image courtesy of Wikimedia]
Study says 90% of virtual worlds don't last 18 months
A study released by Gartner, a large research firm based in Connecticut, claims that 90% of all "business forays into virtual worlds" fail within 18 months.According to the study, most businesses focus too much on expensive and unnecessary technology such as powerful physics engines, and don't pay enough attention to the demands and interests of users actual or potential. This is not surprising to us; savvy MMO developers will talk your ear off about how multi-million dollar graphics are at best a red herring and at worst a harbinger of doom.On the other hand, the study also said that by 2012, 70% of all organizations will be using virtual worlds, and that those endeavors will more successful because businesses will have learned exactly what to expect and will plan development accordingly.[Via Worlds in Motion]
Gartner marketshare data shows a bushel of Apples
The numbers are preliminary, but Gartner's analysis of the US personal computer market for the 1st quarter of 2008 shows some remarkable market expansion year-over-year for Apple. With a 6.6% share of the US market (behind Dell, HP and Acer), Apple shipped over a million Macs in the quarter and had 32% growth in unit sales, far outpacing the 3% growth of the overall market and blowing past sales leader Dell's otherwise stellar 15% growth.Gartner's report notes that "Apple enjoyed strong retail sales, and there were indications that Apple showed decent growth in the professional market as well." Someone's got to be buying all those machines![via MacRumors]
Gartner acknowledges iPhone enterprise mojo in new report
CIOs and IT pros pay money -- a lot of money -- for the opinions of the Gartner Group. Since I'm not shelling out $95 to buy "Gartner Changes It's iPhone Enterprise Recommendations," even though I'm sure it would be worth a giggle or two, I'll just point you to some folks who have read the new report. Short summary: author Ken Dulaney acknowledges that the circumstances leading to Gartner's original "burn it, it's a witch!" stance on the iPhone for enterprise use have changed, and with the additional support for Exchange and ActiveSync coming in June there are far fewer reasons to take a strict stand against iPhones in corporate settings.Since Dulaney was the principal author of Gartner's first report, we commend him for sticking with the issue and setting the record straight. Now, about all those C-suite folks who already have iPhones... well, as Gartner describes the support levels required to handle idiosyncratic devices, there's "concierge," "appliance" and "platform" levels of support, with "concierge" being the most hands-on and resource-intensive (the iPhone is moving from "concierge" to "appliance" status with the June 2.0 update). How much do you want to bet that CEOs, CFOs and CIOs who go off the reservation and buy themselves iPhones and MacBook Airs are already getting, and will continue to get, "concierge"-level support from their IT departments? Yeah, that's what I thought too.
Gartner: Blu-ray to win in 2008, HD DVD price cuts are "useless resistance"
Gartner, the fat lady of research firms, is singing HD DVD's swan song this morning. Hiroyuki Shimizu, Principal Research Analyst in Japan, says in Gartner's Semiconductor DQ Monday Report that, "Gartner believes that Toshiba's price-cutting may prolong HD DVD's life a little, but the limited line-up of film titles will inflict fatal damage on the format." He goes on to call the recent price cuts "useless resistance" in avoiding the inevitable. What's that, you coyly ask? According to Shimizu, "Gartner expects that, by the end of 2008, Blu-ray will be the winning format in the consumer market, and the war will be over." With 5 of the 7 major studios now backing Blu-ray exclusively, Gartner's certainty on the subject doesn't appear to be much of a stretch.
More thoughts for the future in Second Life and beyond
It being the end of the year, people are prognosticating like mad. Analysts for Second Life and virtual worlds are no exception. This time it's Gartner again, but with a "future of education" slant. There is also a "future of virtual world economics" post, which highlights the future of education in virtual worlds, so next year will be the year of the virtual teacher. (With my teaching in Second Life hat on, I might argue it's the year of the Johnny-come-lately virtual teacher, there is a lot of education already happening in Second Life.)In summary, the pieces on Virtual Worlds News suggest: Education will be big next year Second Life, World of Warcraft and Habbo Hotel (amongst others) will continue to grow The usage by children/tweens will be a big growth area Challenges are: Ease of use and induction Spreading platforms that can access virtual worlds Interoperability Globalisation Please, go read both articles and add your comments here or there!
Big business analysts looking more kindly on Second Life once again.
It seems like only yesterday, but I guess it was about 6 months ago, that a lot of big business analysts were saying, in rather more business like language, "OMG what's all the fuss about Second Life?" This isn't from the point of view of the casual player, this was stories such as "a responsible IT manager should block access to Second Life because it is a risk to your data security" and "No one can make a decent return on investment in Second Life."Over the last few days I've started to see, directly or indirectly, articles changing this advice: Erica Driver asks does it matter if Second Life appears empty in places for the Forrester Information and Knowledge Management blog; Peter Abrahams, for IT Director, suggests that Second Life is now too important not to be accessible - and whilst he concentrates on disabled accesshe has the underlying assumption that businesses are increasingly using Second Life productively and this will continue to increase in importance; Pham Neutra in his Otherland Blog points out an article from Gartner saying that by 2010, 20% of tier 1 global retailers will have a marketing presence in virtual worlds and online games. That's in 2 years time remember! We are starting to see more and more people working out how to use Second Life - and as Pham comments in his blog, they are starting to learn how to define useful metrics for success in this brave new world.
Financial bigwig says virtual worlds leading digital currency charge
Andy Kyte, vice president of Gartner, Inc., told Gartner Symposium attendees last week that virtual worlds such as Second Life are "contributing to the drive to use electronic currencies." This comes from a ZDNet report on Kyte's talk about the potential of electronic currencies to reduce overhead costs for pretty much every one. He said Singapore has already introduced an electronic currency and that the rest of the world is watching what happens there.He also said, though, that online currencies like Second Life's Linden Dollar carry with them security issues that create "phenomenal opportunities for money laundering and tax evasion." Those issues would have to be resolved before online currencies similar to the L$ or EVE Online's ISK can be used with confidence in the real world.[Via Worlds in Motion]
Lies, damn lies, and marketshare statistics
There are two conflicting reports on US marketshare out from Gartner and IDC. While both agree that Apple has moved solidly into the #3 slot in US marketshare (behind Dell and HP), they disagree about the actual numbers. Gartner gives Apple 8.1% of the US market with an estimate of 1.3 million Macs shipped, while IDC has our favorite fruit company at 6.3% with 1.1 million Macs shipped. Whatever the exact numbers it's clear that Apple is on the move and Dell is falling. With the Leopard launch right around the corner you've got to think that the bean counters in Cupertino are anticipating fourth quarter sales with glee.[via electronista]
Mac shipments in US up 30% from last year
There's a movement afoot, and it arrives in nice white boxes. Gartner Research is reporting that preliminary data on Apple's 2007 first quarter shows a 30% year-over-year increase in computer shipments. Interestingly, the last quarter of 2006 showed the same increase. With the most recent data, Apple's estimated US market share rises a full point to 5%.This growth in sales (against industry-wide unit growth of 2.6%) is the best indication of the escape-velocity pace of the Mac market's expansion. Woo hoo![via Fake Steve/Mac 2.0/MacDailyNews]
Apple's US market share still falling and rising with the tides
Yesterday's prelim 4th quarter report was great news for Apple's health as a manufacturer of personal computers - they shipped over 1.6 million Macs, the most ever in a quarter and 30% more than the previous quarter. Today's news of a rise to 6.1 percent market share in the U.S. from Gartner, however, has the Mac web doing the market share dance all over again, as just a year ago this month it was the NPD Group reporting that Apple's U.S. market share - excluding online sales - had risen to 6.6 percent. The confusion ensues when considering MacNN's conflicting report from Gartner claiming Apple's U.S. share just rose to 6.1 percent. Of course where and how these different groups are getting their numbers is unbeknownst to this blogger, but methinks something might have been lost in translation between all these analysts.Still, while market share numbers might be getting a little fuzzy as of late, we can at least trust Apple's announcement of selling the most.Macs.evar in a quarter, and that's alright with me.
Apple's market share falls/rises, depending on who you ask
AppleInsider writes about a new Gartner report that states overall Mac market share has decreased in the first quarter of this year compared to the same quarter last year. However these findings conflict with an earlier news article by ZDNet based on earlier research by Gartner which suggested that worldwide Mac market share had actually increased slightly. MacRumors.com puts the numbers together:U.S. Mac Market Share 1Q 2005: 3.8% 1Q 2006 (ZDNet): 3.5% 1Q 2006 (AI): 3.6% Worldwide Mac Market Share 1Q 2005: 2.2% 1Q 2006 (ZDNet): 2.3% 1Q 2006 (AI): 2.0%So depending on which report you believe, Apple could have gained or lost overall marketshare across the world. Both articles state that Apple has lost market share in the U.S. The only thing that's really clear is that Mac sales have obviously been lackluster in the first quarter when compared to the rest of the industry.That's not entirely surprising considering that only Intel Mac that was available throughout the first quarter was the Intel iMac. The MacBook Pro didn't ship until mid-February, the Intel Mac mini wasn't released until late February and the MacBook was released just under three weeks ago. It's remarkable that the Mac market share has managed to stay as high as it is considering that half the Apple line-up hadn't made the transisition to Intel CPUs for much of the quarter. We've got to ask though, where did that 6.6% U.S. Mac marketshare that was reported last year go?
Windows Vista to be delayed yet again?
Given Microsoft's recent woes -- the company seems to be under attack by everyone from Wall Street analysts to Google -- the last thing the company needs is a rumor that Windows Vista won't be available by its recently revised January launch date. But that's what Redmond is getting hit with today, in the form of a research note from Gartner, which predicts a delay until at least June for the consumer version of the program. According to Gartner, the new OS is "too complex" to be ready by January. Microsoft has responded by saying that Vista is on target to make the launch. Gartner also says that a delay until the spring is "nowhere as bad" as the slip from fall to January, which will result in a Vista-free holiday season. Somehow, we suspect that beleaguered PC makers hoping for a sales bump from Vista upgrades might have a little trouble taking solace from that argument.
