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Microsoft needs your help to predict the future accurately
Apparently, Microsoft Research is working on a forecasting methodology based on data and not on the fevered dreams of precogs or Nostradamus-wannabes. In the past few months, the project's researchers have been relying on the data they've collected (such as outcomes from past events) to accurately predict several political races and game matches. But now Redmond wants the help of humans to improve its predictive powers, so it has launched a new website called Prediction Lab, where anyone can register and vote on various topics such as who'd win a congressional seat or an NFL match. Unlike ordinary polls, users can vote repeatedly, though they'd have to back up their choices by betting virtual points. This apparently leads to more accurate votes, since people have something at stake, and that could improve the accuracy of Microsoft's algorithms.
