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Wedbush thinks Grand Theft Auto 5 will launch in October
With this morning's announcement that BioShock Infinite will now launch in February 2013, publisher Take-Two Interactive altered more than a game's launch date. Take-Two is a publicly traded company, and one fewer gigantic product launch during the holiday season – arguably Take-Two's only holiday product launch, unless you count fall launches of Borderlands 2 and XCOM: Enemy Unknown as "holiday" – means that shareholders will want to know what's up. That worry is reflected in Take-Two's stock price, which took a five percent hit since the market opened this morning.But when Infinite got pushed out of the holiday season, it opened the slot up for another high-profile Take-Two-published title: Grand Theft Auto 5. "In our view, the delay opens the window for Grand Theft Auto V to be released in October 2012," Michael Pachter of Webush Securities wrote in an email this morning, echoing a release window leak from earlier this year.In his eyes, Infinite wasn't just delayed to make it "something even more extraordinary," as Ken Levine put it, but because the folks at Rockstar, "notified Take-Two that GTA V would be ready for October." He believes this resulted in Take-Two offering Irrational Games an extra few months to prepare BioShock Infinite. His logic? "The studio [Rockstar Games] has scheduled every prior GTA release during that month (with GTA IV delayed to April 2008, due to bugs in the PS3 version)."Furthermore, Pachter and co. speculate we could hear more about GTA 5's launch date "as early as May 22" during a scheduled quarterly investor call, or perhaps in a few more weeks at E3 2012. We've yet to hear back from Irrational, Rockstar, or Take-Two on the subject.
GameStop reveals 2010 capital allocation program
We know, we know -- you've been sitting around all day worried sick about GameStop. Ever since the recent announcement of a cut profit forecast and the resultant drop in share prices, we've been in exactly the same boat. Good thing then that the company has announced plans to repurchase $300 million in stock from investors as part of its 2010 "Capital Allocation Strategy," with intentions to increase earnings per share by 10 percent. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter sees the announcement as "positive," echoing the company's statement of continued financial growth in 2010. "We believe that industry sales will rebound in 2010 and that GameStop is well-positioned to gain share the first half of the year. The company has high exposure to the hardcore software releases, which we expect to drive market growth in 2010, and comparatively low exposure to hardware, which we expect to decline," he says. It certainly doesn't hurt that GameStop plans to open 400 new stores over the course of the year -- the financials even leave $100 million on the side, reserved for "acquisition activity." It would appear that, at least for now, we can all can stop worrying. Finally.
Sources: Red Dead Redemption development in trouble [update]
When we recently spoke with our trusted sources from Rockstar San Diego, in addition to yesterday's information regarding the Midnight Club franchise, we were also told about the allegedly troubled state of Red Dead Redemption. One source said that the game "was a complete disaster for most of 2009 and previous ... it has since turned around a little bit, but there are huge problems with it still." Unsurprisingly, the issues with the game are repeatedly claimed to be the result of mismanagement -- along the same lines as what was mentioned in the recent "Rockstar spouse" letter. "Red Dead [Redemption] has been in production for six years (mainly because of horrible management/lack of direction due to fear of disrespecting Rockstar NY) and it will never get the money back in sales it cost to create for those six years," claimed another source. We asked Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter to estimate how many copies he thinks Red Dead Redemption needs to sell to make back its development costs and, more importantly for Take-Two, to be profitable. "I'd say realistically, if everybody [at Rockstar San Diego] was working on it this whole time -- so let's assume it's four years to be fair [Red Dead Revolver was released in March 2004], that's $40 million (about $10 million a year to run the studio) -- to make that back and just break even you need at least $80 million in sales; 1.75 million units. For profit: $160 million/3.5 million units." Pachter added that "it's got a shot" and that, from what he's seen of the game, "it looks phenomenal." Our sources are less hopeful, unfortunately: "The functional team that was Midnight Club was shattered. All the people who didn't quit or get fired were thrown onto Red Dead Redemption, many of them being demoted. The completely disfunctional team that is RDR was put to top priority. The people who had floundered on that project or outright screwed it up were promoted and are now in complete control of the studio, and they're running it into the ground." We'll have to see when the game arrives in stores this April -- if it does. We contacted Rockstar for comment on this story and have yet to hear back as of publishing. Update: We were contacted regarding this story by one Rockstar source, who told us: "It will take 5 million 4 million sales at full price to recoup the development costs of Red Dead. The good news is they [Rockstar] are not expecting to make money with Red Dead Redemption. At this point, that project is just supposed to prove that the San Diego studio can make a great quality AAA title." If you'd like to contact us regarding this or other stories surrounding the "Rockstar spouse" letter, we'd love to hear from you.
