Phillip Swan, president of TVPredictions
, makes more TV-related lists
than Mark Burnett makes reality shows. All kidding aside, "Swanni's"
lists are entertaining and remarkably accurate. Today, he made
ten predictions for HDTV in 2006
Turns out I like lists too, so I'm going to give my
on Swanni's predictions. I'll put a percentage to indicate how accurate
I think his prediction is: 0% means "What was Swanni smokin' when made
" while 100% says "That Swanni sees the whole 1080p picture.
He's dead on!
" The doors are open for your comments on my comments on
his predictions. I predict that sentence will confuse more than a few...
says: "DirecTV will emerge as the HDTV leader."Kevin
says: "25% chance. Watch out for Dish as they add 11 or more VOOM HD channels, and don't count out Verizon FiOS for HD."
says: "Several more HDTV networks will launch."Kevin
"85% accurate. As we begin the final push in our DTV transition,
smaller and independent networks will realize that they must provide HD
says: "New HDTV DVD players will be the buzz of the industry."Kevin
"50% correct. The media is already buzzing, but format wars and high
prices will push HDTV DVD adoption well beyond 2006. Bigger buzz will
be around HDTV PVR units for timeshifting and the first HDTV
placeshifting devices via broadband."
says: "HDTV sales will jump in the first two months of 2006."
"35% chance. Sales continue to increase and typically jump before the
Super Bowl. However, continued competition and falling prices will
drive HDTV sales even higher through the year."
says: "The Multicasting movement will be slowed in 2006."
"95% accurate. Congress won't want to dictate what channels cable and
satellite providers must carry. Startups like USDTV will alleviate
signal issues for consumers in rural areas and reduce the need for
says: "HDTVs in hotel rooms will encourage more people to buy sets for their homes."Kevin
"10% correct. Hotel chains won't have enough of the HDTV sets in-house
for any major sales impact in 2006. Watch for this in 2007
says: "The PDP-LCD-DLP flat-screen TV war will spur more interest in HDTV."Kevin
"30% accurate. Swanni does note that this also confuses the consumer,
which is correct. Additionally, better and additional HDTV programming
will create more buzz in 2006."
says: "PDP EDTV prices will hit $1,000 by the 2006 holidays, with PDP HDTVs falling below $1,500."Kevin
"95% confidence in this one. Watch for retailers like Target and
Wal-Mart to help drive this via store-brand sets. Additional LCD price
drops will cause PDPs to decline through the year as well."
says: "RPTV sales will suffer in 2006 and beyond."
"100% true. The trend has already begun as flat screen technologies
mature with better contrast ratios and lower prices. Watch for SED
flat-screen introduction add pressure in late 2006."
says: "The networks will more frequently promote HDTV as a reason to watch a primetime show."
"75% true. This has already started with brief mentions of shows
available in HD. Look for prominent ads about HDTV programming
availability and even some HDTV-only features that won't be available
Well, there you have it. I've generally agreed with half of Swanni's ten predictions. I'll let you
decide whose predictions you
agree with more in our comments. We'll have to wait almost a year to
see how Swanni (and yours truly) did!