Pachter believes that the sales will happen early on, driven by bundles of early MotionPlus compatible software: "I think around 20 percent of Wii owners in the US and Europe will have bought Wii Sports Resort, Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 or EA Sports Grand Slam Tennis," Pachter told Edge, "so that's around eight million." He added, "I think another two million will buy MotionPlus with new consoles."
Divnich thinks three million units will sell through this holiday season, but it will take an additional year to achieve the ten-million-plus level of sales. "For the Wii MotionPlus, we currently expect the install base to reach over 11 million units by the end of Nintendo's next fiscal year in March 2011, a 15 percent penetration."
Both analysts think Red Steel 2 is a risk that could pay off for Ubisoft. "Red Steel 2 may come along at precisely the right time, around when people are ready for another [MotionPlus] game," Pachter said. "The risk is really more a function of competition, compounded by the risk that Ubisoft could make a bad game." Both analysts believe that Red Steel 2 will be bundled with a MotionPlus.