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EEDAR: Game sales slowdown turned around in September
2009 hasn't been the best year for the games industry. Month after month, we hear reports of reduced sales figures, company closures, and layoffs. Things may be turning around, though, as EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes software sales during September 2009 have actually gone up from 2008, the first time in seven months thanks to strong sales of Halo 3: ODST, Wii Sports Resort, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2, Madden NFL 10 and Batman: Arkham Asylum. All in all, software sales should come in at $715 million, a 16% increase over last year.The music genre may be slowing down, but Divnich notes that "both Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band have performed at levels ahead of retail expectations," with sales predicted at 800k and 1 million units respectively. The same analyst at EEDAR previously predicted that Guitar Hero 5 would outsell The Beatles 2:1. With NPD sales results dropping next week, we'll soon see how accurate Divnich's latest analysis is.
EEDAR expects PS3 to be top selling console in Sept.
Three years and $300 worth of price cuts later, PS3 may finally hit the top of the hardware sales charts in America. EEDAR's analyst Jesse Divnich predicts 400,000 PS3s were sold in September, edging out both Wii and Xbox 360 sales (375k and 370k units respectively).It's far from a landslide victory for Sony, but it may be the start of a turnaround for the long-beleaguered platform. If the hardware maintains momentum, the next issue Sony will have to tackle is software. While EEDAR's hardware numbers peg PS3 at the top, its software charts only show one PS3 game in the top 10: Batman: Arkham Asylum. With the remainder of the chart dominated by 360 and Wii games, it's clear Sony still has a long way to go in the console wars.
EEDAR: 37% of Wii games went unreviewed in early 2009
In his latest "debriefing" on IndustryGamers, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich suggets that the average score for Wii games may be improving because a significant portion of titles aren't being reviewed. Strictly comparing January to June, in both 2008 and 2009, the analyst group graphed the total number of titles released for the three major platforms and the percentages of those titles that were not reviewed (see above). The number at the bottom of each bar represents the number of titles released for the platform in the stated time period; while the percentage at the top corresponds to the quantity of those titles that was not reviewed.Divnich recognizes that "while the Wii has experienced a rise in average review scores (from 60 to 66 in one year), this has come at the benefit of critics ignoring some titles that could have possibly dragged down the Wii's average." However, it's possible that such reviews could have also raised the average score -- we know, that's unlikey, but still. Additionally, the report notes that the unreviewed Wii games weren't "core-targeted titles," which also holds true for unreviewed games on Xbox 360 and PS3.Divnich maintains that Wii games are getting better, but he concludes, "It is just coming at the cost of not reviewing the increase in casual and low-budget titles." He believes that a similar issue could appear occur with respect to PS3 and Xbox 360 as the consoles' casual demographics increase in conjunction with the continued growth of their install bases.
Analyst: Madden 10 Wii didn't sell because of ... Madden 09 Wii
Yesterday, Electronic Arts CEO John Ricitiello pointed to a downward turn in game sales this summer as a prime culprit in what he called a "discouraging" August kickoff for one of the "highest-rated and best-marketed Madden titles in years." Still, that didn't explain the 42 percent decline in sales for the franchise on Nintendo's console. So, we spoke with Jesse Divnich, games market analyst at EEDAR, to get his thoughts on the fairly "oh, wow"-worthy revelation.More than anything, Divnich believes that gamers' experience with last year's game on Wii influenced their decision to not give the franchise a second shot on the system. "I believe many diehard Madden fans, who transitioned from the PS2 to the Wii, made their yearly Madden purchase in 2008 and realized that the Wii could not offer the same experience they have grown accustom to (online play, realistic graphics, in-depth team management)," he told Joystiq.The game's motion control gameplay features -- versus the familiar DualShock 2 -- might also have been a turn-off, Divnich said, likening it to the slow acceptance of console controllers for use in first-person shooters. "Anyone introduced to the FPS category through the keyboard/mouse combination even still today refuses to accept the analog controllers as a legitimate FPS controller," he remarked.Ultimately, though, Divnich came back to the PS2-to-Wii user's experience with last year's Madden. "Avid Madden fans have the curse of knowledge ... and they know that Madden cannot offer the same experience on the Wii as it did for the PS2."
EEDAR: Guitar Hero 5 will outsell The Beatles: Rock Band by nearly 2-to-1
EEDAR analyst Jessie Divnich has been quoted in a newly-published Bloomberg article, stating that the research group sees The Beatles: Rock Band facing a tough fight against the latest Guitar Hero in a genre that has, as he believes, "peaked." We got in touch with Divnich to talk about his assertion in the same article that Guitar Hero 5 will likely outsell Harmonix's Beatles game this year by a ratio of nearly two-to-one.Divnich says he expects Activison to ring up sales in the order of 3 million GH5 units across all platforms, compared to a projected 1.7 million for The Beatles: Rock Band. "I believe that at the end of the day, it comes down to marketing muscle, and Activision has proven in numerous showdowns that they can out advertise and out promote their competitor," he tells Joystiq. "If Activision relaxes on the marketing spend, while MTV Games kicks it up a notch, there's certainly a chance that I could be wrong."There's another scenario in which this year's Rock Band could prove more of a contender. "The only concern I have with my Guitar Hero vs. Rock Band analysis is that Activision may focus less on marketing Guitar Hero 5 and divert funding to DJ Hero, a new brand in their Guitar Hero line-up," EEDAR's chief number man admits. "That would certainly change the game."No matter what, Divnich doesn't see a very-worst-case scenario playing out for MTV Games and Harmonix, assuring us that "[The Beatles: Rock Band] will outsell Rock Band 2 this holiday season."
EEDAR: PS3's $299 price to become 'new standard' for next year
Microsoft isn't likely to take today's unsurprising (but welcomed!) PS3 price drop to $299 lying down. EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes Microsoft will follow suit with their own announcement next week, officially killing the $299 Pro SKU and replacing it with a price-dropped $299 Elite model. Divnich says Sony's price cut "will close the sales gap between the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360," but doesn't offer a clear "winner" this holiday season. While he says the PS3 is a "superior hardware product," he also draws attention to Xbox 360's "deeper software library and superior online services." Without a disparity in pricing, it should prove interesting to see what mainstream consumers choose this holiday: hardware or software? Looking forward, Divnich notes that $299 is likely to remain the "new standard" price for the two consoles for the next year. One or both may drop down to $249, but he believes that's the lowest prices can go in the next two years. Instead of continued price drops, Divnich believes both Microsoft and Sony may pursue including Natal and the PlayStation Motion Controller as standard attachments in the future. Is it just us, or does the "console war" seem like it's only just beginning? [Image Source]
Take-Two not expecting profitability for fiscal '09
Take-Two held a conference call, following the disappointing news of BioShock 2's delay, to update investors on its current financial situation. With BioShock's absence, Take-Two's holiday sales will rely on Borderlands, Grand Theft Auto: The Ballad of Gay Tony and the PSP version of Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars. While all are arguably high-profile titles, none are expected to generate the kind of revenue as a brand new BioShock title -- and that's going to hurt Take-Two's bottom line.Like many other publishers suffering from the economic depression, Take-Two has confirmed the company will not be able to achieve profitability for the fiscal 09 year. While specific figures were not released during the call, the company once again reiterated that its outlook for fiscal '10 is far more positive, expecting profit "without a new multiplatform Grand Theft Auto release."Touting a lineup that includes Max Payne 3, BioShock 2 and a number of "unannounced titles" for release in late 2010, analyst Jesse Divnich of EEDAR agrees. "The news of BioShock 2 being delayed into fiscal 2010 has drastically changed my view on the Take-Two. I originally anticipated that Take-Two would outperform the industry in fiscal 2010. Now, I expect them to dominate fiscal 2010."
EEDAR analyst apologizes for his report supporting the Q4 wallet drain
The latest report from research company EEDAR reveals that, despite complaints from gamers that publishers are overloading the fourth quarter every year, well-reviewed titles typically perform 15-20 percent better than games with high Metacritic released in the "off season." Don't worry, though, we expressed our discontent by calling EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich and yelling, "What are you doing!? You're ruining everything!" Divnich apologized and said he uses GameFly to mitigate his own personal financial damage during the holidays. He wishes the numbers would show something different and recognizes a core gamer would need to increase their gaming budget by 200% during the holidays to keep up.Divnich also wanted us to note that, despite it being widely reported that his research states the PS3's library has the highest percentage of titles with an 85 or higher Metacritic score, the Xbox 360 has a larger quantity of such titles overall. Whatever, we've found a scapegoat for our empty wallets during the holidays. Divnich is the first phone call we're making to hit up for cash.
EEDAR predicts slower April sales, success for Rhythm Heaven
EEDAR's Jesse Divnich released a Retail Sales Preview for April, containing predictions for hardware and software sales results for last month. It starts on a down note, unfortunately, with a projected decline in software sales of 17%. "We believe the weak retail environment is to blame for the year-over-year decrease in [average selling prices]."Music and rhythm games got somewhat of a boost in April, according to Divnich, but only because of heavy discounts. "The biggest sales occurred at Wal-Mart.com with certain Guitar Hero World Tour SKUs being discounted by as much as $90 and Best Buy with a sale that gave away Guitar Hero: Aerosmith for free with the purchase of Guitar Hero: Metallica."The two success stories this month are both DS-related. Hardware sales went up over last year, but only because of a new DS launch -- The DS is predicted to be up 129% year-over-year thanks to the DSi. "Without the DSi, hardware sales would have likely been down by over 27%."In software, Rhythm Heaven's "sales performance has been nothing short of amazing," according to Divnich, with sales of around 154,000 copies. The reason? "Nintendo's ability to leverage an effective marketing campaign using a celebrity (Beyonce)." Hopefully some of the people who bought it because they saw Beyonce playing it will then play it themselves. They might like it!
EEDAR: DLC to drive AAA title revenue up 10 percent by 2010
DLC can expand a game in many ways. Not only can it expand the experience offered by a title, but it can also expand your wallet, take out your money, and place it in the hands of publishers and developers. And, by 2010, EEDAR predicts that "the average AAA title should be able to earn an additional 10% in revenue by releasing additional content through digital distribution."It's not a hard pill to swallow; DLC packs such as The Lost and Damned and Call of Duty: World at War's Map Pack 1 have been selling like virtual hotcakes, and Sony has been milking LittleBigPlanet in all the appropriate ways. Also, let's not forget about Criterion Games, the company that has been adding value consistently to its Burnout Paradise game. Of course, gamers have been complaining about paid DLC just as consistently.
Edge analyzes Wii, PS3 review scores
Following up its work with EEDAR on Xbox 360 review scores, Edge has now compiled similar data for both the PS3 and Wii. The idea is simple: Look at every game on each console and find out how many games scored either above 85 or below 65 on EEDAR's review scale. What results is a basic snapshot of the overall quality of games on each platform.According to Edge and EEDAR's numbers, 17 percent of PS3 games have scored 85 or higher, while 30 percent are rated below 65. This compares favorably with the Xbox 360, which saw 13 percent of its titles above 85. The Wii sees only 4 percent of its titles rated 85 or higher, while a full 54 percent fell at or below 65. Those who follow the industry can probably guess why Wii seems to attract a disproportionately large number of poorly reviewed games. Edge cites the low entry barrier for Wii developers, allowing more bad games to hit the market hoping to ride the Wii cash wave -- or, if you prefer not to mince words: shovelware. The report also points to developer difficulty in grasping the intricacies of Wii's control interface. Furthermore, the article posits that review scores don't really matter to the system's primarily casual audience.Of course, the critical caveat concerning the analysis is that review scores are subjective. After all, one gamer's must-have is another's don't-bother. Just look at Fatal Frame IV.Source - Games At-a-Glance: PS3 QualitySource - Games At-a-Glance: Wii Quality
OTX planning box office-style tracking of games market
One more sign we're moving towards a world where marketing for all media is intrinsically tied together? OTX Research today announced plans for video game market tracking, firing a warning shot over the bows of GameSpot's Trax service and IGN's GamerMetrics, not to mention NPD and EEDAR. Rather than offering various metrics based on target audiences (in the case of IGN and GameSpot) or retail sales numbers which exclude a variety of alternate purchasing options (in the case of NPD and EEDAR), OTX plans to track online retailers and has brokered a deal with GameFly and AERS (eBay data handler). "We range from people who spend three hours a week on Yahoo Games to people who spend 50 hours a week on Xbox Live," OTX's director of gaming Nick Williams told The Cut Scene, referencing the company's data gathering methods. OTX has been interviewing large sections of folks that play games, mirroring the model used by the film and television industry. OTX also says it's looking to move into other media, combining the research found in games with film and television to predict sales trends across multiple entertainment mediums. "You can look at that model and say, 'Don't launch game X when movie Y is opening.' Because all these things are interconnected now." Or at least they will be, Mr. Williams. These things do take time, after all, so you'll excuse us if we don't hold our breath.
Sony expects 10-15% sales rise for PSP/PS3 this year
At least that's what John Koller, head of marketing for Sony Computer Entertainment of America, told VG247 earlier this week. "We had our largest sales year ever last year, and we'd look to go about 10-15 percent north of that this year," Koller said of the PSP, citing the upcoming software packs and software lineup as reason for his confidence. Continuing, Koller noted, "We also had our best sales year for PS3 last year and we'll look to go north of that by a similar percentage," again citing upcoming software bundles and lineup as driving the increased numbers. So we put the numbers for Sony's PS3 in 2008 against those of the previous year and found it sold just like Koller said (as seen in the graph above), with PS3 sales increasing by 40 percent. In fact, we spoke with Jesse Divnich, director of analyst services at EEDAR, who said Koller's numbers are modest, with EEDAR company predicting a 25 percent increase in PlayStation 3 sales this year and a 16 percent increase for PSP sales. Even averaged together, that's still an over 20 percent increase predicted for this year. So, maybe 2008 was the year of the PS3 after all?
Analysts: PS2 sales to increase 30% after price drop, others question effect on software
Analyst Jesse Divnich of EEDAR believes that the PS2 price drop to a Franklin will boost US sales of the console by 30 percent. Divnich's report also estimates that PS2 software will maintain an 18 percent market share, rather than drop down to 16 percent had there not been a cut.Gamasutra also spoke with analyst Matt Matthews, who points out that any consumer waiting for the PS2 to reach $100 is "cost-conscious" enough to buy games from the used bin at GameStop, meaning those consumers aren't likely to help new software sales. Apparently, Sony's Jack Tretton agreed with this notion last summer in an Edge interview, when he asked, "If that $30 was the difference between buying a console and not buying a console, how many games are you going to sell to that person?"At the time, he questioned how strategically important that consumer really is. Apparently, nine months and a fiscal crisis at the company is enough to change some minds.
'Amazon is of little threat to GameStop's core business' says EEDAR
Citing an Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR) report released in the past week, GamesIndustry.biz is reporting today that, while the announcement of Amazon.com entering the used game trade triggered a 13% drop in GameStop stock, "Amazon is of little threat to GameStop's core business." According to EEDAR, this doesn't mean Amazon is doomed to fail, but that "Amazon and GameStop can co-exist peacefully," which sounds awfully nice to us on the consumer side of things.How did they arrive at these rather broad conclusions, you ask? "EEDAR conducted a survey and recorded the trade-in value, used price, and new price of 79 game SKUs (57 that applied to the survey) at Amazon and GameStop." After doing so, they arrived at this, possibly shocking, revelation: "On average, GameStop offers a better value on trade-ins by over 3%." Seriously?To round out the EEDAR report, we'll leave you with this one, astonishing truth: "Amazon's entry into the used gaming market will expand the used market into new territories and make available to new consumers rather than steal share away from GameStop's core business." So, what's the lesson here? Competition: good for consumers, (apparently) okay for retailers.
Edge asks 'How good are Xbox games, really?'
It's the moment we all dread: Opening a carefully wrapped video game gift from a non-gaming relative. The chances that you'll need to hang onto that gift receipt? Astronomically high -- unless they are given explicit buying instructions. Wishing to put a number to the above hypothesis, Edge and Electronic Entertainment Design and Research have teamed up to graph the Xbox 360 library based on Metacritic scores. According to the research, 13% (48 titles) of all Xbox 360 software released in North America between 2005 and 2008 have received an average score of 85 or higher while 38% (136 titles) scored a 65 or lower. Of course, this stylish graph only means anything if you take stock in review scores -- and if you follow our WRUP posts, you know we don't. PS3 users don't fret -- EDGE and EEDAR are tackling the big black (on the outside, blu on the inside) box next week.
Analyst: PS3 price cut won't help Sony in short term
Despite the rallying of software publishers, EEDAR Analyst Jesse Divnich thinks a PS3 price cut won't be that beneficial to Sony in the short term. In his retail sales preview for February 2009, Divnich calls the hypothetical, analyst-expected June price drop "unlikely to propel sales ahead of last [fiscal] year for the first half of 2009." Even though he says the PS3 has "an impressive holiday 09 line-up," he claims Microsoft's successful campaign to position itself as the "core console of choice" won't give Sony much wiggle room. Currently, the PS3 is in last place for this gen, but Divnich has high hopes for PS3 in the long term. He expects Sony's system to pick up steam by "2011 through 2017," when Blu-ray becomes dirt cheap. It's not a very optimistic outlook.
EEDAR predicts February NPD sales decline, Wii sales explosion
The industry analysts at Electronic Entertainment Design and Research recently cast their assortment of oracle bones over some spreadsheets in an attempt to foretell NPD sales figures for the month of February. The firm's prediction is a tad on the grim side -- according to EEDAR, February software sales reached $659 million, a 2 percent decrease from last year's sales. They foresee a year-on-year decline for Spring 2009 sales as a whole, largely due to last year's glut of blockbuster Q1 releases, such as Super Smash Bros. Brawl and GTA IV.EEDAR's hardware sales estimates are similarly un-rosy -- they predict year-on-year February sales for the PSP, DS and PS3 to fall over 10 percent. However, the firm does predict an 18 percent increase for the 360, and a whopping 68 percent jump for the Wii. With Wii Fit standing atop EEDAR's software sales chart, and with Wii Play presumably surpassing 10 million LTD sales as of last month, it seems Nintendo's license to print money is far from expiring.
Analyst: Lost and Damned earned $18 million online, $3 million at retail
Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR) analyst Jesse Divnich's crystal ball predicts brick-and-mortar retail sales of GTA IV's expansion, The Lost and Damned, to be less than $3 million. He believes current global sales from customers who purchased it across Xbox Live to be around $18 million. This latest bit of analyst prognostication comes following Pachter's missive (translated from an Illuminati memo) that GTA's biker expansion could sell upwards of two million units by year's end.Although the 6-to-1 online vs. retail ratio seems dramatic, is it really surprising when The Lost and Damned was promoted as a DLC pack anyway? In this case, retail was just a middle man, as those who purchased the "game" at their local bodega received a card with a code to download the expansion. All we really know at this point is that the game is selling very well.%Gallery-37692%
Nielsen: $823 million spent on game marketing in '08
Market research firm Nielsen estimates that $823 million was spent on video game promotion in the US during 2008. Not bad, considering the region brought in $21.3 billion in sales.Edge reports the numbers come with news that Nielsen is teaming up with EEDAR to more efficiently track advertising dollars and give better ideas of where to spend cash in the troubling economic time. [Image]
