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EEDAR predicts January hardware sales up 58% over last year
Electronic Entertainment Design and Research has released its 'preview' of January game hardware and software sales -- basically, what it expects the January NPD results to be, based on market analysis. Overall, EEDAR expects hardware sales to be up 58% for January 2009 over January 2008. This jump in sales is mostly accounted for by their prediction of 740,000 Wiis sold in January, versus 274,000 in January 2008. EEDAR expects all of the current systems to reflect increased sales except the PS3, which they estimate will drop 21.93% versus last January. In terms of software, the big winner is predicted to be Wii Fit, whose predicted sales of 700,000 units would be a record for January sales of a single game.These numbers are basically the group's best guess, and analyst Jesse Divnich made note of the fact that it has exceptional difficulty accurately estimating Wii sales: "The Nintendo Wii simply doesn't comply with the EEDAR's sales projection systems. The total amount of Nintendo Wiis sold every month has a direct correlation to the supply available in the channel."
Analyst: median Wii game price dropped to $40 in 2008
In case you hadn't noticed (we're imagining Rich Uncle Pennybags types who just keep handing cashiers wads of cash until they look satisfied), game prices have been moving upward in this console generation. $59.99 is the new base price for console games, and limited editions drive the prices up further -- except on the Wii.EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich made statements in the group's February "Expose" document that support the conclusions of Signal Hill's Todd Greenwald -- that the "average MSRP could flatten or fall in 2009." According to his estimates, the median MSRP for Wii games at release has already fallen: from $49.99 in 2007 to $39.99 in 2008. The proliferation of budget shovelware certainly has a lot to do with this trend, but cheap shovelware is a lot less obnoxious than expensive shovelware. Plus, the widespread lowering of initial prices should lead to a similar trend among non-shovelware publishers, as well.[Via GoNintendo]
December Wii sales held back by supply shortages
While moving 2.15 million units in a single month is nothing to jeer at, analysts are expressing their disappointment in the December sales figures of the Nintendo Wii. Jesse Divnich from the Electronic Entertainment Design and Research firm calculates that over 4 million Wiis could have found themselves placed beneath trees or crudely tucked into stockings -- had "supply and demand been in equilibrium." He also praises Nintendo for almost singlehandedly protecting the industry from the full brunt of the recession at the end of the year -- a victory we usually credit to our soul-crushing addiction to video games.
Analyst predicts double digit percentage decline in sale of PSP/PS3 hardware
November won't be a good month for Sony, if the analysts at EEDAR are to be believed. According to Jesse Divinich, Sony can expect double digit percentage declines from the successful sales of November '07. PSP sales will have plummeted 25% from last year, while PS3 sales will have dropped almost 20%. The softening economy and fierce competition from Microsoft and Nintendo will certainly affect Sony's install base.At the very least, Sony can take comfort in knowing that PS3 software sales will be up from previous years. However, due to the incredible drought of PSP software, Sony's handheld will be the only platform which will show a decline in software sales.
Report: 'Guitar Hero reaching its peak'
See what happens when you play too much Guitar Hero? You don't need Joystiq to tell you that the game -- heck, the entire genre has reached its peak! But how about a professional analyst?Bullet point numero six on Electronic Entertainment Design and Research's "November 2008 Retail Sales Preview" report says it all: "Guitar Hero reaching its peak." The firm predicts a sales decline greater than 50 percent series-over-series (from Guitar Hero 3 to World Tour) this month, following a decline of 60 percent in October. "It is pretty clear that the series has already reached its peak among the mass-market audience," reflected EEDAR director of analyst services Jesse Divnich, who, in a separate correspondence, was quick to add, "I don't believe this is the end to Guitar Hero or Rock Band. They are the premium brands in the genre and even if the genre experiences some exhaustion, Guitar Hero and Rock Band are here to stay." EEDAR expects the two franchises to continue to spawn for the next 10 years.
Wii games drop in price faster than competition
The research bods at EEDAR have got their abacuses out and calculated that Wii games are more prone to "price protection" than titles on rival machines.What's price protection? Price protection occurs when a publisher of a game that isn't selling offers its game to retailers for a lower price, allowing stores to get rid of excess stock quickly. If this happens too soon (EEDAR defines "too soon" as "when a title's third month average selling price has decreased by 20% or more from its original average selling price"), it is known as "early price protection."Anyway, EEDAR found that 15.1% of all Wii software goes through this process, compared to 7.5% on Xbox 360 and 9.09% on PS3. What does this disparity say about Wii software? EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich thinks it backs up the theory that third-parties struggle on the Wii because they and retailers have "overly aggressive expectations" for Wii games, and that it proves "quality is one of the most impactful features for a video game."Or, in a nutshell, Wii has waaaay too much half-assed shovelware.
PSP experiences 17% decrease in sales, software in last place
Things are not looking for Sony's handheld. After what appeared to be a successful resurrection with the redesigned PSP-2000, things have slowed down significantly for the system. EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich noted that sales of PSP have dropped quite a bit from its previous highs. In fact, it sold 17% less systems in May 2008 as it did in May 2007. Momentum is significantly dropping.The outlook for PSP is going to be much worse before it gets any better. According to Divnich, "this trend will likely continue, as we do not see any significant PSP titles in the short-term pipeline that could drive hardware sales in Sony's favor." The PSP software drought certainly isn't going to help.For one reason or another, PSP software sales are also significantly lower than on any other platform. Divnich noted. "Furthermore, PSP software has consistently been last in software unit sales among the next-generation consoles and handhelds. Additionally, the PSP was the only console not to have a title in the top 10 of unit sales, even the PS2 managed to creep into the top ten with sales from Iron Man." So long as PSP software continues to flop, publishers and developers will have no need to create new content for the system.
PS3 exclusives sell 45% better than multiplatform releases
PS3 fanboys don't like to share, it seems. According to EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich, PS3 owners prefer exclusives on their systems. In fact, a title that is exclusive to PS3 will sell 45% better on the system than a multiplatform title. Exclusives on both the Wii and Xbox 360, according to the analyst, only have a "small increase" over multiplatform titles.June NPDs are almost guaranteed to belong to Sony, and Microsoft may respond to two consecutive months of PS3 victories through a price cut announced at E3. How will this affect the price of the PS3? "If there is a hardware price cut, it is not known if Sony will follow suit right way, but it would be safe to assume that Sony would execute some type of plan within a 2 month window of any hardware price cut from the Xbox 360."The console war looks to be heating up. It'll be interesting to see where it goes in the coming months.
Study: M rated games have higher scores, better sales
Two mothers are talking over a cup a tea. "I think my Billy is going to be well off," she said. "He's got the heart of a teenager. Doesn't swear or advocate violence or engage in promiscuous sex or any of that! He's going far in life."The second mother shakes her head. "Sue Ellen, that's just not how the world works nowadays. My son John is a foul-mouthed bully who dreams about rivers of napalm and who picks fights with the local church group. In this zany world, John will be richer and more well-respected than that wuss you bore."If that conversation makes no sense, replace the mothers with game publishers and the tea with, well, hot coffee. A recent study by the Electronic Entertainment Design and Research firm concluded that games rated Mature by the ESRB, despite being only one-tenth of the titles examined, "have both the highest average Metacritic scores and the highest average gross sales in the United States."What does this say about the average video game consumer? It's hard to say, but we're thinking the industry is learning to grow up with its audience.
