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Ask Massively: No idea what's coming edition
I don't know what's going to happen next in the MMO industry. I have my guesses, sure, but unless I'm fairly certain, I just don't feel right putting them up here. I certainly would not have ever imagined a world where APB: Reloaded was successful, or one where Lineage II goes free-to-play, and until it was announced, I wouldn't dare dream of WildStar. Heck, half the time I'm not sure I understand what's going on at any given moment, much less several months down the line. This week's Ask Massively received several questions that require me to be more confident about my predictions than I actually am, but it does contain a question about the future of Aion and a question on the past, present, and future of cheating. If you've got a question you'd like to see answered in a future installment of the column, leave it in the comments below or send it along to ask@massively.com. Questions may be edited slightly for clarity and/or brevity.
TUAW TV Live at 5 PM ET: What's ahead for 2012?
With this episode of TUAW TV Live, the show goes into its third full year of production. As with every new year, there's a lot of speculation on what new trends and products we'll see from our friends in Cupertino. Today on TUAW TV Live, I may or may not have a co-host (he hasn't responded yet), but I'll certainly have opinions about what to expect in 2012. As usual, I'll be starting the show at 5 PM EDT (2 PM PDT / 10 PM BST) sharp, and we'll take a few minutes to chat before the demos start. To join in on the chat and watch the live streaming video, drop by TUAW about five minutes before the start time to get your instructions on how to participate. If you're unable to join us for the show, remember that you can always subscribe to the video podcast and watch the show at your leisure in iTunes or any other favorite podcatching app. The past shows are also available on the TUAW YouTube channel. The chat is now available as well on IRC: join us on server chat1.ustream.tv, chat room #tuaw-tv.
Hyperspace Beacon: Sensing the future
I like making predictions. When it comes to Star Wars: The Old Republic, I've been spot on about several things, but I've missed the boat on some too. "Careful you must be when sensing the future, Anakin. The fear of loss is a path to the dark side," Yoda warned the young Jedi Knight in Revenge of the Sith. It's a good thing I don't have anything to lose by guessing what I think will happen in the future for this game. In 2011, we saw TOR launch with astronomical numbers, and all you have to do is look at our front page to realize how much people have been talking about this game. Hopefully, the future of the game is just as bright. Thankfully, developers at BioWare have been very talkative about what's coming in the future. Let's combine what players have said with the plans developers have spoken about to predict the future of the game. After the break, I'll mix the news with my Force powers to see in the the future... the future... the future... echo... echo...
The Daily Grind: Want to make an inaccurate prediction?
Today is the first day of 2012, and that means there's a whole new year awaiting us, a year during which no doubt a lot of things will happen in the MMO space. But while we've already made our staff predictions, we're sure that our readers have their own... both the kind that seem likely and the sort that seem like they'll never happen, the sort of crazy pie-in-the-sky stuff that you usually file in the back of your head and forget about. Well, not today. Today, we want you to dust off those theories about the next year that have a 1% chance of happening at best. If you're wrong, hey, odds are low. But if you're right about your guess that World of Warcraft will go free-to-play or that Guild Wars 2 will announce a subscription fee of $30 per month, you said it here first, right? So go nuts with your crazy predictions in the comments! Every morning, the Massively bloggers probe the minds of their readers with deep, thought-provoking questions about that most serious of topics: massively online gaming. We crave your opinions, so grab your caffeinated beverage of choice and chime in on today's Daily Grind!
The Mog Log: The 2012 forecast
As we enter the twilight of 2011, I can say with absolute certainty that my predictions for Final Fantasy XI and Final Fantasy XIV were wrong, which is fine, since when I made them last year I seem to recall saying to myself that I was predicting more on the basis of "should happen" than "will likely happen." I was overly optimistic about several things, overly pessimistic about a couple of others, and going in a completely different direction from the design team on the rest -- which is fine by me, actually. That having been said, whether proving that I'm not afraid of failure or that I don't know when to quit, I'm coming back for another round of predictions for this coming year. But there's one major variable in the equation that's horrible to try and account for, and that's Final Fantasy XI. I can easily see the game going one of two ways, and while I think one's a bit more likely, there seem to be more divergent futures for it than for Final Fantasy XIV.
Massively's MMO predictions for 2012
2010 will be the year to change it all! No wait, I mean 2011 will be the year to change it all! Darnit. OK, 2012, help us! You're our only hope. While picking stocks or guessing baseball playoff scores is probably more lucrative, in our little corner of the world, we enjoy nothing more than predicting the rocky future for our favorite hobby. But between studio closures, surprise indie hits, and million-dollar investments, nothing is certain in entertainment trends, which is why we have so much fun throwing out educated guesses. Which game will topple World of Warcraft? Which studio will be shunned and ridiculed for a stupid decision? So this year, a few members of the Massively team got together to make their predictions for 2012. Follow along below for more on what each writer thinks 2012 will bring to the MMO space. Beau Hindman | Bree Royce | Brendan Drain | Eliot Lefebvre | Jef Reahard | Jeremy Stratton | Justin Olivetti | Shawn Schuster
The Soapbox: Tunnel vision
Disclaimer: The Soapbox column is entirely the opinion of this week's writer and does not necessarily reflect the views of Massively as a whole. If you're afraid of opinions other than your own, you might want to skip this column. As everyone knows, social gaming is doomed to failure. Mindless, repetitive drivel like FarmVille is just an enormous waste of time and clicking with no actual gameplay aspects involved, and there's no real depth to keep someone hooked. It's not even remotely close to an MMO, and obviously pretty much everyone will get bored with it and stop giving Zynga money in a couple of months. The only thing that stands in the way of that clearly correct opinion is the piles of money it continues to make. Of course, the above is what several gamers have been stating ever since the first seemingly innocent Facebook game came around. I'm restating it here not because I'm talking about social games but because it's a symptom of a larger problem. As gamers, we love to predict which MMOs will work and which ones won't, but we're also suffering from a terrible sense of tunnel vision that makes us really awful at that.
Analyst downgrades Blizzard stock in anticipation of SWTOR launch
Zomg, the sky is falling in Azeroth! OK, not really, but World of Warcraft is heading for troubled waters if you believe an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets. According to a report at Gamespot, Atul Bagga downgraded Activision-Blizzard's stock from "buy" to "neutral" due to the results of a recent online survey that pointed to restlessness among a certain subset of WoW players. Whether the perceived wanderlust has to do with the game's age (it turns seven this month) or the deafening hype bandwagon that is gathering steam due to next month's Star Wars: The Old Republic debut, the numbers indicated a possible loss of between 900,000 and 1.6 million WoW players following TOR's launch.
Analysts predict big iPhone sales as press event nears
Apple will reveal its new iPhone tomorrow and analysts are already predicting a buying frenzy. These are predictions, of course, but there's no denying the anticipation felt by many Apple fans. The first comes from Janney Capital Markets analyst Bill Choi, who brandishes a huge number about. He suggests that Apple will sell as many as 107 million iPhones in 2012. Bill cites the potential of yet untapped providers and the audiences they would bring. "There are still a handful of major carriers worldwide that have yet to carry the iPhone. Potential deals with Sprint (52.1M subscribers), T-mobile (33.6M subscribers), China Mobile (628M subscribers) and other large international carriers pose a catalyst to fuel iPhone sales," he told All Things D. Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White is also enthusiastic about sales potential, identifying the fall release date as a contributing factor. White suggests that "pent up demand" experienced by those who expected a June or July release could break Apple's single-day sales record of 1.7 million iPhones. We'll know soon enough, and we'll cover tomorrow's press event for you. See you then!
Single-player games will be dead in three years, says industry analyst
So game development studios desperately want to move the entirety of our hobby online in order to mimic the recurring revenue model of MMORPGs. That's not exactly news, but it is news when an industry analyst makes an eyebrow-raising claim regarding the immediate future of the genre. To that effect, Eurogamer recently attended a "closed-door, Sony-organized panel discussion on the future of video games," which featured an analyst predicting the end of single-player titles by 2014. Mark Cerny, a "veteran video game consultant," used the 2009 single-player RPG Demon's Souls as an example, saying that its mixture of traditional offline gameplay and social connectivity to other gamers experiencing the same title is the wave of the future. "The funny thing here is, we don't even know what to call this. Is it single-player or is it multiplayer? We don't even have the words. It's kind of Orwellian. If you don't have any word for freedom you can't have a revolution," Cerny said. What exactly is that revolution, and will it be good for gamers? Check back in 2014 to find out.
Cambridge researchers tout new location-based method to predict friends on social networks
Friend suggestions on social networks may already be a little too eerily accurate for some, but a team of researchers from Cambridge University now say they can do one better. They've devised a method that doesn't simply rely the usual friends-of-friends approach, but on where those people tend to hang out. According to researcher Salvatore Scellato, "it turns out that the properties of the places we interact can determine how likely we are to develop social ties," and that places like offices and gyms are better indications of potential friends than football stadiums or airports. That notion was borne out in their research (conducted over a period of four months using Gowalla), which found that "about 30 percent of all new social links appear among users that check-in to the same places." With the two prediction methods combined, the researchers say they're able to account for 66 percent of all new social ties. No word if they've moved onto predicting crimes next. [Image credit: Gowalla]
Blizzard's Titan a 'casual' MMO
In case you were worried about a lack of new and accessible MMOs coming down the pike over the next couple of years, the king of casual is riding to the rescue. At least, that's what an analyst at Sterne Agee hinted at on Gamasutra recently. Arvind Bhatia is quoted on the game industry website as saying that Blizzard's product pipeline includes "expansion packs for StarCraft and World of Warcraft, a new Diablo game, [and] a new casual MMO." That casual MMO is of course Titan, the secretive WoW followup that has reportedly gobbled up Blizzard's most experienced designers. While no one outside of Blizzard has any inkling as to Titan's setting, mechanics, or target audience, Bhatia's prediction makes a certain amount of sense given the realities of the MMO marketplace and the costs inherent in developing and marketing AAA titles. Head to Gamasutra for the full report.
EVE Evolved: Predictions for DUST 514
When CCP first announced development on its upcoming free-to-play PlayStation 3 MMOFPS DUST 514, speculation ran wild as we thought of exactly how the game could be integrated with EVE Online. The plan to link the two games through EVE's sovereignty system seemed almost too ambitious, but the gaming world waited for more information with a quiet optimism. Most of us cautiously imagined the most basic of interactions between the two games, almost afraid to get our hopes up or express optimism for the project; after all, this is something that has never been done before. I think most EVE players imagined a vague web-based communication between EVE pilots and DUST mercenaries and little or no control over the outcome of a fight. We justly worried that our system sovereignty would be decided by the outcome of random matchmaking-style FPS battles or that DUST would only affect worthless planet-based industrial networks. At this year's E3, even our most optimistic expectations were completely blown away. DUST will be fully integrated into the EVE servers, with DUST players able to join EVE corporations and EVE players able to supply ground troops with equipment. We'll deliver decisive air strikes in realtime from ships in orbit, and DUST players will even be able to fire back. In this week's EVE Evolved, I re-examine the link between EVE Online and DUST 514 in light of the new information from E3 to make some predictions about what the battle for a planet might be like.
The MMO Report: Predictions of E3
This week's MMO Report is coming to viewers live from E3! Well, in theory, anyway. See, at the moment, our host Casey Schreiner is nowhere near the studio, being at E3 himself, which means that this week's installment is not about what's going on at E3. Rather, it's what Casey predicted would be going on today at E3. So you can amuse yourself where the predictions were entirely wrong and see if any of the wild guesses turned out right after all. Needless to say, predictions regarding Star Wars: The Old Republic run rampant, as does speculation about Guild Wars 2, TERA, and The Secret World. Of course, you've no doubt been following our E3 coverage here religiously, so when you click on past the break you can see for yourself what was on the money and what went completely off the rails, along with a completely true prediction about the next big hit in the MMO world.
TUAW predictions for WWDC 2011
With Steve Jobs' WWDC 2011 keynote just a few hours away, we already know a lot more about the content of this year's WWDC keynote than in years past. But, it's always fun to dust off the old crystal ball and see what WWDC will bring us this week. Without further ado, here's what some of our TUAW bloggers predict today will bring: Mike Rose End-of-life for the classic iPod A new Time Capsule with cloud storage tied in One more thing: A new MacBook Air
HP thinks the TouchPad will be 'better than number one,' if that's even possible
HP's expectations for its new TouchPad tablet are running pretty high -- so high, in fact, that they can only be expressed with a make-believe number. During a recent press conference in Cannes, HP's Eric Cador boldly declared that his company's new slate won't just be the best on the market, it'll be the bestest. Cador explained: "In the PC world, with fewer ways of differentiating HP's products from our competitors, we became number one; in the tablet world we're going to become better than number one. We call it number one plus." A spokesman later confirmed that the device will launch in the UK with apps from the Guardian, Sky and Last.fm, but promised that "thousands" of other apps are on the way. The metrics might sound a bit optimistic, but the message is clear: HP thinks the TouchPad will annihilate the iPad and blow our minds to smithereens. We'll just have to wait and see whether it's as explosive as advertised.
Newspaper thinktank predicted the iPad in 1994
It's not often (well, ever) that I consider the possibility someone might be from the future, but maybe Roger Fidler was. In 2007 the Paleofuture blog pointed to the video below, where Fidler and his team at Knight-Ridder describe an electronic newspaper running on what might as well be an iPad... except that the video was made way back in 1994. Most futurists are off the mark, or make forecasts for technologies that are so far off in the future, you'll never know if they are right, but the Knight-Ridder team's predictions for the "electronic tablet" were just eerie. Granted, they forecast it for the turn of the century -- and in their version of the future, people still wore collarless denim shirts -- but it's otherwise freakishly accurate. "We may still use computers to create information, but we will use the tablet to interact with print, video and other information," the video explains. It also goes on to describe personal "profile pages," "interactive maps" and sharing links with friends. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. It even seems like Fidler is channeling Steve Jobs at some points, saying "Nobody needs a manual for their daily newspaper" and that tablet newspapers need to be kept simple. Amazingly, he even seems to describe iAds. Of course, the Knight-Ridder tablet wasn't the first futurist's take on a pad-shaped newsreader, but at least this one doesn't also come with a neurotic killer computer in space. If you were watching this video in 1994, you were watching 13 minutes of the future. Read on to see the clip. Bonus points to Fidler & co. for the classic PowerBook Duo, Newton and other Apple history in the background. [via The Inquisitr; hat tip to Bronwen Clune]
Michael Dell: Android tablets will overtake iPad
Michael Dell is bullish on Android tablets [registration required]. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published today, the founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Dell Inc. predicted Android tablets would one day overtake Apple's iPad as the leading platform in the tablet market. Dell cited Android's success in the smartphone market to support his theory. "If you look at 18 months ago, Android phones were like, 'What is that?' And now there are more Android phones than iPhones," Dell said. "I don't see any reason why the same won't occur with Android tablets." At the moment, Android faces the Herculean task of catching up to the device that defined a new class of consumer electronic. Unlike the iPhone, which entered an already healthy mobile phone marketplace with well-established rivals, the iPad set the benchmark for tablet computing. A recent report from IDC suggests the iPad represents 83 percent of the rapidly growing tablet market. IDC expects Apple to continue its dominance by winning up to 80 percent of tablet sales in 2011. The iPad's most well-reviewed rival, the Motorola Xoom, has done little to sink Apple's staggering dominance despite its flashy marketing campaign and tablet-specific flavor of Android. One estimate from Deutsche Bank suggests Motorola has sold only 100,000 units of its flagship tablet. Similarly, Samsung has been disappointed with sales of its Galaxy Tab and its sales of about 2 million units. Dell, of course, offers its own family of tablets called the Streak. The 5- and 7-inch tablets, powered by Android, were met with generally negative reviews and are widely considered flops. Dell is expected to release its 10-inch Streak Pro, in both Windows and Android varieties, later this year. Although Dell claims to be doubling down on Android, the CEO, who also expressed being surprised by the sudden rise of the iPad, may also be hedging his bets by releasing tablets on two competing software platforms. [via CNET]
Elon Musk says SpaceX will send a man to space in three years, Mars within the next two decades
Elon Musk has never been one to shy from making bold predictions, which is why we're not surprised to hear that he has high hopes for the future of space travel. In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, the SpaceX founder said his company will "probably" put a man in space within the next three years, in the hopes of sending passengers to Mars within the next ten to 20 years. Earlier this month, Musk's company unveiled plans for the "world's most powerful rocket," the Falcon Heavy, just a few weeks before receiving $75 million from NASA to help spur the development of its commercial spaceflight projects. Musk, it seems, is approaching these projects with an almost sacred sense of duty. "A future where humanity is out there exploring stars is an incredibly exciting future, and inspiring," he explained, "and that's what we're trying to help make happen." Head on past the break to see the full interview (space talk begins around the 13:00 mark).
Two years after Fred Wilson dumped AAPL...
We all make predictions that don't turn out as planned. For example, this morning I said I'd have a few beers, enjoy a barbeque in the sun with friends and perhaps go to the cinema tonight. Turns out I have two daughters under the age of 3, so there went my day. But at least I'm not kicking myself like Fred Wilson must be. Wilson is the venture capitalist managing partner of Union Square Ventures who, two years ago, famously announced that he was selling all his shares in Apple because he didn't believe the company was "being straight with investors" over Steve Jobs's health. "My average price on my entire position in Apple is US$96, so I'll take a small loss on this and a small gain on the stock I bought during the meltdown last fall." He sold at $91.36 -- and at close yesterday, Apple shares were at $338.08, up $246.72 or 270 percent. He sold Google at the same time but announced a short time later he was buying back into the search giant. See the chart above for how that one worked out for him. Maybe he only had one share in Apple (although $246.72 would go nearly halfway towards a new iPad 2). Maybe he's happy with that 50 percent-plus gain in Google's value. Or maybe he's still kicking himself now. Me, I think we'll have that barbeque tomorrow. [Via Daring Fireball]
