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Analyst: PS3 continues to set records, Wii and software sales down
Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia says that Sony is in for a good 2010 -- he expects the PlayStation 3 to experience its largest year-over-year growth from last month's sales among all consoles, and for Sony to beat its own record from the month before for the console's best sales ever. The PS3 appears to be on a roll, and January sales are expected to continue the trend. Bhatia also says that the Wii's sales are being hurt by "meaningful shortages," and points out that just 28% of the stores NPD checked in January had Nintendo's console in stock. Bhatia also suggests that Xbox 360 sales would be up slightly, due to a big GameStop promotion, and that software sales would be down in general. Not unexpected, given that January almost never matches up to the frenzy of the holiday season, but 2010 has already started off with a bang in terms of quality releases. NPD's official info, released soon, will let us know if there were sales to match.
Post-keynote TUAW prediction scorecard: How did we do?
Yesterday we pooled our predictions together to try and predict what would happen at the iPad presentation today. How did we all do? Sang Tang: Sang was the closest in terms of the iPad's screen size -- 9.6" prediction vs. 9.7" actual size. However, the iPad has neither wireless HDMI nor a front-facing camera (or, indeed, a camera of any kind). Score: 1/3. Erica Sadun: Erica was off on screen size, but was correct in predicting that the iPad would look and function much like an iPod touch. However, by all appearances the iPad doesn't add any new revolutionary gestures, and without a camera of any kind, any augmented reality applications are going to be very limited in scope. She was correct in saying there'd be no "mind-blowing new tech onboard" and optional nationwide wireless with a monthly fee. Score: 3/5. David Winograd: David was also off on screen size (though just barely), cameras, and new gestures. He was correct in predicting a keyboard dock and an optional data plan, but wrong about iPhone tethering and iPhone OS 4.0. Score: 2/7. More scores and the TUAW total after the break!
Will Blizzard show their next MMO at BlizzCon 2010?
WoW.com's Zach Yonzon takes a speculative look at BlizzCon 2010 and all the possibilities that lie ahead. The article predicts that Blizzard will officially announce their sophomore MMO effort this year, which seems likely given StarCraft II's impending release and Diablo III being a known quantity. To top it off, the developer probably wouldn't mind stifling some of the substantial buzz building up around Star Wars: The Old Republic. We'd love to see the cyberpunk MMO described in the article, but who wouldn't want a sci-fi MMO that's like Diablo's dark fantasy to Warcraft's light-heartedness? Nobody (well, except for Blizzard) really knows what the future holds, although for now you can read about it and share your thoughts if that helps out -- at least, it helps us feel slightly less helpless when pondering our MMO gaming future.
Speculating on BlizzCon 2010
It's a new year and that means another opportunity to play oracle and figure out what Blizzard's plans are for 2010. BlizzPlanet has gone ahead and tossed out some of their ideas on what will happen for BlizzCon this year, laying out their predictions and even speculating on the event date. As you might know, there was a bit of confusion stemming from supposed leaked information that pointed to BlizzCon 2010 happening in Las Vegas in July. That didn't go down so well with Blizzard, and the Las Vegas convention center later retracted its statements. BlizzPlanet points out, quite logically, that Blizzard probably wasn't too thrilled with that. Even if they had planned to do it in Las Vegas, that kind of public relations misstep is a deal breaker. Besides, Eldorian from BlizzPlanet applies simple, sound logic to his sleuthing work and explains that examining the Anaheim Convention Center's Calendar of Events reveals an odd, blank date on the weekend of August 20-21, yet almost all the weekends of the venue are already booked. With Blizzard being the secretive bunch that they are, he figures those blank dates actually correspond with this year's BlizzCon event. It's a pretty cool theory. Read the rest of their predictions as well as a few of our own guesses after the jump.
Apple ten years on
This is a pretty wandering post over at the NZ Herald (it starts out with a screening of Avatar, and drops a few local actor names before getting down to business), but it eventually gets to an interesting premise: what will Apple's hardware look like not in 2010, when we're all breathlessly awaiting the tablet, but in 2020, ten years from now? Of course we're talking about complete speculation here -- not even Apple knows what they'll be doing in ten years. But it's not like we haven't done it before: Apple's devices are smaller, faster, and more powerful than ever. What will they be like ten years down the line? More gesturing and intuitive human interfaces seem like a good guess -- with the iPhone, the accelerometer has been used in all sorts of interesting ways, and it's probably not far until Apple figures out a way to track movement in 3D space, either by moving an iPhone or a controller around, or as the piece suggests, by tracking our body in some way. Slimmer display screens and extra battery life will be in the future as well. And the article mentions solid state storage, but if our predictions for this year are any indication, Apple will try to move off the hard drive as much as possible, and start placing data for multimedia and other files in a cloud server, accessible via Internet whenever they're needed. Like I said, interesting thought experiment. What do you think Apple will be like ten years from now?
Year-end reflections and predictions roundup
All our prognostications, anticipations, best-of lists and year-end reflections -- in one handy place. Our favorite iPhone games of 2009 The first full year of the App Store is coming to a close, and so let's take a look back at our favorite games of 2009. Note that these aren't best-selling, most important, or even the best games... TUAW bloggers post their Apple predictions for 2010 It's the end of another calendar year, which can mean only two things. First, every blog is going to be posting lists of 2009 retrospectives, and second, there are going to be a lot of posts... Our Favorite Apps: Stuff that stayed on our phones in 2009 As the year draws to a close, we thought we'd shine a spotlight on some of the favorite apps we used this year. These are the "sticky" apps, the ones that lingered on our iPhones after we gave... Also of interest: Apple nabs four of Engadget's 10 gadgets of the decade January 1 reflections on my favorite things How early iPhone predictions fared in the face of reality Two broken promises from AT&T and Apple as 2009 comes to a close
Predictions for 2010?
2010... a year we've been waiting for since at least the mid-80's. It's finally here guys -- so what happens next? Every year we take the 1st of January to try and figure that out. Normally we would consult the sage-like wisdom of Engadgetdamus, but this year is special, and we thought it needed the kind of time-twisting-artificial-intelligence-color-cycling-weird-baby-monolith-Roy-Scheider-starring-space-adventure that only the above image (and book, and movie) could evoke. Below are the predictions from the staff of ye olde Engadget -- what say you, good reader? Chris: In an unprecedented cash and stock deal valued at over $1.7 billion, Comcast acquires your '89 Festiva. Thomas: Steve Jobs will announce a pair of tablets, then smash them to bits on account of Android idolatry. Laura: Jeff Bezos will continue to predict the "death of the book." The book will continue to exist merely to spite Bezos. Don: The world breathes a sigh of relief that the Large Hadron Collider will never create a black hole... after it is destroyed by zombies. Dan: Apple's stock will plummet when a TUAW investigative report reveals that Steve Jobs actually died in 2002, and has since been portrayed by talk show host cum surreal performance artist, Arsenio Hall. Nilay: Google finally flips the switch and creates Skynet. Joanna: The OLPC XO-3 gets an early release date - in the form of the Apple Tablet. Ends world hunger, illiteracy and violence. Saves the world. Ben: Microsoft agrees that CableCARD is a failure and Media Center along with it and introduces Zune Center. Josh F: Adult entertainment will kick-start yet another media market, this time in the form of 3D Blu-ray porn. Richard Lai: Tamagotchi resurrects with 3D monochrome screen, and then dies. Darren: Intel considers making an Atom that's actually fast, but its bottom line delays the launch until December 31, 2012. Vlad: Sony Ericsson delivers an Xperia handset on time... nah, just kidding. Richard Lawler: Nintendo surprises everyone and releases the Wii 3D. Josh T: Google upends the landscape of the mobile phone market when Eric Schmidt says Apple can "have one of these unsubsidized" while emphatically pointing to his crotch.
Massively's predictions for 2010
With 2009 wrapping up today and 2010 lurking creepily around the corner, we're eager to release our predictions on what the next year may bring to the MMO scene. Even though we try to keep our news relatively neutral, it's the editorials and opinion pieces that garner the most reaction from the readers. Positive or negative, we appreciate that. So for this last day of 2009, we honor it by giving our own opinions (both positive and negative) about how 2010 looks to us. Follow along after the jump for a few paragraphs from Kyle Horner, Eliot Lefebvre, Seraphina Brennan and me. In addition to our ramblings, we'd love to hear from you as well. So drop us a comment to let us know what you predict for 2010.
Pachter predicts another Xbox 360 price cut in 2010
If you read the first installment in the latest installment of "Pachter Predixx," you already know that the analyst's new report praises the PS3 for its resilience during these troubled times. According to the report, the PS3 saw an 85-percent year-over-year sales increase in November, while the Wii and Xbox 360 suffered sales declines. This reversal in fortune leads Pachter and his Wedbush associates to a surprising conclusion: "We think that the PS3 will again outsell the Xbox 360 in November and December, prompting a price cut some time early next year." Pachter adds that while Microsoft "has the ability to lower price yet again," it probably won't do so until "it begins to lose significant market share to Sony." As with all conjecture -- even when delivered by professional conjecture conjurers -- we suggest considering Pachter's educated guess as just that: a guess.
IDC's crystal ball says Apple tablet, 300,000 App Store apps in 2010
One fun thing about being a tech research firm is that sometimes you can state the obvious and everybody still gets excited. That's what will happen today when technology research company IDC releases their forecast for the next year, and in anticipation of the big news, the New York Times recently had a chat with Frank Gens, IDC's chief analyst. Among the predictions the company will announce today is the expectation of an Apple-branded touchscreen tablet computer. Wow, we've never heard that before! Gens thinks that it will be a general-purpose device instead of just an ebook reader, and "could deliver a real kick in Kindle's butt." IDC is also assuming that the recent trend of cranky developers dropping iPhone development won't continue; they're stating that the number of apps in the App Store will climb to 300,000 by the end of 2010 and that the competing Android platform will see up to 75,000 apps by that time. Gens pointed out that there are about 10,000 apps listed on Microsoft's Windows 7 compatibility site, and notes that "The market follows the applications. That's a message for the software industry, particularly for the PC industry." I'm interpreting this comment as meaning that the most compelling and innovative software is not being developed for the big operating system on the block -- instead, the mobile space is the recipient of most of the attention right now, and that could end up being a huge factor in the success of an Apple tablet. [via Mac Rumors]
Psystar's predictions... they're a bit off
More and more information is coming out about Psystar and their legal issues with Apple. Some new documents have been leaked with some numbers and predictions from Psystar themselves. According to these documents, the company planned on selling 1.45 million Mac clone computers by 2011. The actual number sold so far: 768. What's even better is that these numbers are their "conservative" estimates. If you take a look at their more aggressive numbers, Psystar plans to sell 12 million by the end of 2012. Yes, you read that correctly: 12 million. With the legal issues still ramping up, we can only expect to see even more (comical) news coming from the failed Mac clone company. Psystar even has gone so far as to say the battle is only helping them, keeping other clone makers from entering the market to "avoid the mess." [via Gizmodo]
Contest lets EVE Online players get their name in print in E-ON magazine
While Massively's own EVE Online contest is off to a great start this week, we also want to point out something of interest happening on our friend CrazyKinux's site. Have you ever wanted to see your name in print in E-ON, the official EVE Online magazine? Well now is your chance. CrazyKinux is running a contest where EVE players can make their predictions about how the game will change in 2010 or what will happen in New Eden in the next year. If your prediction lands in the top 10 entries, your submission will make it into print in E-ON magazine in January -- plus you'll also receive a free contributor copy of that issue. The contest is called "The Oracle of EVE" and will run through November 30th. It'll be judged by CrazyKinux and E-ON editor Richie Shoemaker (aka Zapatero). Check out the announcement post over at CrazyKinux's Musing which explains in greater detail how you can take part. Obviously they're looking for submissions that are well-written and entertaining, but also concise. Entering is quite simple -- just write your 2010 prediction on your own blog and link to it in the comments below "The Oracle of EVE" announcement post. Good luck to any Massively readers that decide to take a shot at this.
After Game 1, MLB 09's World Series predictions look good
At first, we doubted MLB 09's simulation of the World Series between the NY Yankees and the Philadelphia ... Phillies (a bit redundant, no?). However, the Phillies' dominant performance in Game 1 of the series made us reconsider our position.According to the San Diego Studio-developed baseball game, the World Series will last all seven games this year, with Philadelphia ultimately the victor. So far, MLB has correctly predicted the victor of Game 1.This may be upsetting to New York fans, especially as the Yankees are the heavily favored team in this match-up. However, video game AI has had a pretty successful track record so far. Look at Madden, which has managed to correctly predict the winner of 6 out of the last 7 Super Bowl games. We'll find out soon enough if MLB has the same accuracy.
EEDAR: Game sales slowdown turned around in September
2009 hasn't been the best year for the games industry. Month after month, we hear reports of reduced sales figures, company closures, and layoffs. Things may be turning around, though, as EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes software sales during September 2009 have actually gone up from 2008, the first time in seven months thanks to strong sales of Halo 3: ODST, Wii Sports Resort, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2, Madden NFL 10 and Batman: Arkham Asylum. All in all, software sales should come in at $715 million, a 16% increase over last year.The music genre may be slowing down, but Divnich notes that "both Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band have performed at levels ahead of retail expectations," with sales predicted at 800k and 1 million units respectively. The same analyst at EEDAR previously predicted that Guitar Hero 5 would outsell The Beatles 2:1. With NPD sales results dropping next week, we'll soon see how accurate Divnich's latest analysis is.
New iMacs and MacBooks coming soon?
Maybe so, if you believe the predictions of some analysts at Wedge Partners. They proclaim in their neverending analyst-y wisdom that in the next few weeks, Apple will again refresh its lines of iMacs and MacBooks, including a slimmer iMac and an only slightly updated MacBook. Why would Apple announce such a thing, especially so soon after the recent June revamp? Windows 7 is apparently the answer -- Apple wants to distract from Microsoft's big release, according to the analysts Personally, it all sounds kind of hokey to us -- Apple's already got their back-to-school lineup all set, and while there probably is room for one more update before the holiday season, it's hard to believe they're going to announce some extremely minor updates in a desperate grab against Windows 7. And not even the analysts will guess at a netbook or tablet release -- they say neither one of those is coming up for an announcement any time soon. You have to think that if Apple is doing one more update before the holidays, it really will come up in the next few weeks, so by the time Halloween candy starts dropping in pillowcases, we should know for sure. [via PC World]
Pachter predicts 'game-enabled' Apple TV by 2013
Wedbush Morgan analyst -- and video game prognosticator -- Michael Pachter is back with more predictions for the future! Speaking with IndustryGamers, "The Pacht" said he believes it's only a matter of time (three to four years) before Apple takes a stab at console gaming by way of a "game-enabled" version of the Apple TV. "Apple TV is the device that they can turn into a console, and they have essentially the same goals as Microsoft -- to turn Apple TV into an entertainment and Internet hub," he proposed. The game industry Nostradamus figures that "If [Apple] can get enough iPod users to download games, it's a natural that they can ultimately convince a large number of these users to buy a game-enabled Apple TV," for which he believes "a 2012 or 2013 launch" would be most likely.Pachter feels that Apple will start off conservatively with regard to the scope of these "console" games, but eventually aim to take on the best its competitors have to offer. "We'd get cool stuff like World of Goo or Geometry Wars," he predicts, "But probably not super cool stuff like Gears of War until they bought a few developers." Of course, Apple could just fulfill another long-running prophecy and buy Electronic Arts.
3.1 hitting this week? Wryxian drops some hints
EU Blue Wryxian is once again patrolling the forums, dropping hints that patch 3.1 "is coming ... soo ... er ... promptly."Through crystal-ball gazing, the application of logic and, in some cases, sheer desperation, the general consensus has been that the Secrets of Ulduar patch will be dropping this week. Europe's favourite Blue appeared on the forums this morning and left a carefully worded comment:"The patch is definitely coming ... shortly."The 'severe lack of info' might simply be because we announced it, gave further details about it, put it up on the PTR for testing and now we are basically on the verge of releasing it."We certainly haven't been quiet about it. It is coming. And it is coming ... soo ... er ... promptly."Regardless, we should know one way or another in less than twenty four hours. So cross your fingers (and toes) for some extended downtime tomorrow!
Guessing on the patch 3.1 release
bridges_squares wants to know, and we're getting really, really close, so let's finally go out on that limb, shaky as it may be: when's the patch coming out? Turpster predicted it would be this past Tuesday on the WoW Insider Show last week (since Noblegarden and the equipment manager got delayed, he figured they wanted to hurry for a release), but obviously no dice on that one. And on the other end of things, April 26th is the date we're told Noblegarden will start, so it's a pretty good guess we'll see the patch by then.If you follow that line of reasoning, that just leaves the next two Tuesdays, April 14th and 21st. And since we had rolling restarts last week, it seems like maintenance this week will bring us the patch on Tuesday, the 14th. But of course there are other factors in here: the PTR should go down before the patch comes up, and since the PTR it still up, we be waiting until the 21st. Also, just because Blizzard said Noblegarden on the 26th doesn't mean they won't delay it again, so we may still see the patch on the 28th or after that. And Tuesdays are usually when the live realms get patched (Fridays are usually when the patch the PTR, in my experience), but technically they could do it anytime, right?So let's do a poll. I'm going to go with Tuesday the 21st (since there's no sign of the PTR going down yet), but when do you think patch 3.1 will drop? And no, "when it's ready" is not an option -- we'll just assume (hopefully correctly) Blizzard will make sure of that anyway.%Poll-28913%
TUAW Macworld 2009 Keynote Predictions
Even though Steve Jobs has opted out of giving the keynote at this year's Macworld Expo in San Francisco, and Apple will not be attending another Macworld after this one, there will still be a keynote presentation -- it will just be given by Phil Schiller instead. Of course, since the keynote must go on, even without Mr. Jobs, there will also be speculation and predictions as to what Apple will announce during the keynote. We at TUAW are not immune to this phenomenon and even though we will be liveblogging the keynote to provide you with the news as soon as it's actually announced, that won't stop us from engaging in a favorite pastime of the tech press: Macworld Expo keynote predictions. Of course, when considering this event and the impending announcements, especially in light of this being the last time Apple will take part, these questions, and many others, come to mind. Will Phil be as entertaining as Steve? How long will Phil talk about the success of iTunes and the iPod before moving on to the other more exciting announcements? Who will be the musical guest? Will Phil be wearing a black turtleneck and jeans or will he try to start a new fashion trend of his own? Will Phil and Apple do anything "special" to commemorate the last keynote? What will be the "one more thing"? And, most importantly, will Phil talk about where Steve Jobs is and why he isn't doing the keynote? Your intrepid TUAW writers have considered those very questions, and many more, through long days and nights of deliberation, discussion and discourse. In so doing, we have come up with some interesting, perhaps even controversial, prognostications, pre-visualizations and predictions of what new products and services will be announced at this this year's keynote. Read on for all our (at least partly serious) expectations. For full Macworld Expo coverage, bookmark the TUAW Macworld Expo 2009 landing page.
Ten predictions for the HD realm in 2009
It's always fun to look back and see which predictions were spot on and which were utter failures, so it's with that same fervor and excitement that we present our top ten predictions for the HD arena in 2009. We'll go ahead and warn you that some of these aren't entirely -- how do you say? -- serious, but surely your deductive reasoning skills aren't that badly hampered after last night's romp. 1) Blu-ray player prices will reach $79 before the year's end. 2) First medium-to-large OLED TV will ship to consumers. 3) SED will still be spinning its wheels. 4) HTPCs will become all but forgotten as media streamers and BD decks gain functionality. 5) Wireless HD will still remain insignificant to the general populace. 6) A consumer-level 2K flat-panel will see development. 7) Mayhem will ensue on or around February 17, 2009. 8) 3D HDTVs will reach critical mass at the consumer level, material will still be tough to acquire. 9) 720p video recording will appear on several cellphones. 10) Blu-ray players will be able to effectively replace HD streamers / HTPCs by having access to networked media, Hulu, Netflix Watch Instantly and the entire world of internet-based content.We can't possibly explain how difficult it was to narrow this down to ten, so do us a favor and mention the predictions we couldn't in comments below. Here's hoping '09 is a banner year for high-def.
