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Engadget's WWDC 2008 predictions
Yes, it's almost that time -- WWDC 2008. By now you're well acquainted with the rumors circling Apple's next big event. Will the 3G iPhone make an appearance? Will Jobsy bust out a multitouch Newton tablet? Will Snow Leopard come in from the cold? It's anyone's guess, but the editors here at Engadget have a few hunches that you can pretty much bank on. Of course, you can see the real thing happen during our live coverage of the keynote set to start at 10:00AM PT / 1:00 PM ET.Josh T: "Hillary Clinton named president... of AppleCare division. Finally, Universal AppleCare."Ryan: "Apple announces acquisition of Sharper Image's remaining assets; rebadges flagship product line iOnic Breeze."Thomas: "iPods, iMacs renamed EeePods and EeeMacs; iPhone launched which is somehow both bigger and smaller than the current model."Chris: "iPhone Capsule is introduced to thunderous applause, allowing consumers to effortlessly go 'back in time' to retrieve their obsoleted iPhone models."Josh F: "In a surprise move, Steve Jobs says 'But wait: There's more!' instead of his signature 'Just one more thing,' then proceeds to throw in a Shamwow and two Infinity Razors if you order in the next 30 minutes."Paul: "Jobs in a white wife-beater tucked into Levi's 501 cutoffs."[Okay, that last one is more a wish from Paul than a prediction.]
TUAW predicts WWDC '08
With WWDC right around the corner, the bloggers at TUAW have compiled a list of predictions for WWDC '08. While we are not sure what will be released, this is a fun list of what we think might be coming, or things that we really want. Be sure to voice your predictions in the comments, and by taking part in our poll. Steve SandeI'll take ".Mac rebranding and expansion to iPhone and Windows, 3G iPhone, iTablet, and Mac nano" for $500, Alex!Robert PalmerI think we might find out what the next "big cat name" will be for 10.6. [We're pretty sure we know what that'll be.] I think we'll start to see a development toolset for bringing all of Apple's devices together. Imagine a novice user being able to create a small app that runs on the iPhone, as a Dashboard widget, and maybe as a widget for some future Apple TV in one build. To do that, we need the next generation of Apple development tools. That's what we might begin to see at WWDC. Joshua EllisFlash on the iPhone, 3G, and I'd really love to see that iTablet and Mac nano action.Mike SchrammWe'll see 3G and new .Mac for sure, and I think we'll see some more official iPhone apps from Apple, in addition to everything else from the App Store. I don't think we'll see any other new hardware (a redesigned MBP may be in the cards, but an iTablet or Mac Nano is a no), but I do think we'll see a years-off glimpse of 10.6 -- with Leopard out and updated, Apple needs to start up some more OS hype.Chris UllrichiPhone 2.0 with 3G and video shooting capability. .Mac rebranding with new features similar to Google Apps and accessability to Windows users. iPhone 2.0 applications and some details on the next version of OSX code named "insert name of big cat here."Cory BohonWe'll definitely see some .Mac rebranding going on, some new "mystery hardware," and a sneak peak at what's beneath the hood of Mac OS X 10.6. I don't think we will see the iPhone 2.0 firmware hitting the streets just yet, and I think that Mac OS X 10.5.4 might be right around the corner.Brett TerpstraEnterprise solutions on the iPhone (I know, generic prediction). MBP update. Announcement that Apple was actually serious about using me.com, followed by a Keynote presentation with focus group study data indicating that it's actually a really, really good name.Michael RoseCan't wait for the over-the-air sync of .Mac/MobileMe, and I don't even own an iPhone! I think we'll get a launch date for the App Store and an on-sale date for iPhone 2, but neither of them will be during the show. I think we'll see a 10.6 seed preview and the Mac Nano... and maybe, just maybe, the iPhoneBig.Scott McNultyI'm with the crowd on the .Mac rebranding, and the 10.6 dog and pony show. We'll see (I think) iPhone 2.0, but what I'm really hoping for is a redesigned MacBook Pro. I'm about ready to replace mine, and I'd love to get one with a keyboard like the MacBook's.Now, it's your turn.%Poll-15011%
Analysts predict console war outcome, fanboys riot in streets
Over at GameDaily, analyst group DFC Intelligence has made a few observations regarding recent trends in the video game industry, and has a prediction for the result of the current-generation "console wars." According to DFC, the Nintendo Wii will ultimately secure its first place position, with the PS3 overtaking the Xbox 360 in 2009 for a strong second-place showing.In terms of longevity, DFC believes that by 2012 the Playstation 3 will surpass the Wii in terms of software sales (no doubt assuming a staying power similar to the console's little brother, the PS2). They also predict that the slowed economy in North America will actually benefit video game sales, as high gas prices encourage consumers to stay home and play games, rather than going out. Several other interesting tidbits and predictions can be found in their full report.
Study says 90% of virtual worlds don't last 18 months
A study released by Gartner, a large research firm based in Connecticut, claims that 90% of all "business forays into virtual worlds" fail within 18 months.According to the study, most businesses focus too much on expensive and unnecessary technology such as powerful physics engines, and don't pay enough attention to the demands and interests of users actual or potential. This is not surprising to us; savvy MMO developers will talk your ear off about how multi-million dollar graphics are at best a red herring and at worst a harbinger of doom.On the other hand, the study also said that by 2012, 70% of all organizations will be using virtual worlds, and that those endeavors will more successful because businesses will have learned exactly what to expect and will plan development accordingly.[Via Worlds in Motion]
3G iPhone Predictions
Now that it's more or less a given that a 3G model is on its way -- very shortly if rumors are to believed -- let's have a little fun speccing the thing out. Sure there's absolutely no data so let your imagination guide you. What's the price of this baby going to be? How much memory will be onboard and what will its battery life work out to? Better onboard camera? With Video? And how about "Back to My Mac"/"Back to My iPhone" features? What are you willing to pay per month for the glory of all that is new, shiny and iPhone? Let us know in the comments about your dream 3G iPhone.
Multiverse co-founder describes new virtual world order
Multiverse's Corey Bridges spoke at the SXSW conference about the effects digital distribution and the democratization of advanced development tools will have on the industries of gaming, social networks, and virtual worlds.Gamasutra put together a great summary of the talk. The thesis: just as they are stripping the entrenched establishments of the music and film industries of much of their oligarchical power, new technologies will transform online gaming and virtual worlds. According to Bridges, virtual worlds are just getting started. "WoW is not a fad," he said, "it's a harbinger." Furthermore, the virtual worlds will be in the hands of indies, not the major conglomerates, and they'll be synergized with social networks.Bridges also touched on the notion of a more splintered industry made up of smaller projects catering to lots of niche tastes, as opposed to the huge Hollywood-budget productions we see today. A while back someone said that it would take at least a $1 billion super project to take on World of Warcraft. But maybe, as it was with the Roman Empire, the wolves at Blizzard's gate will be countless smaller tribes made up of the so-called unwashed hordes.
Anaylst: Wii owners will want to move to PS3
iSuppli (makers of iAnalyze) has determined PS3 to be the victor of the current "console war." There are millions of Wii owners right now, and many will likely want to upgrade to a new system in a few years time. 2008 is already being hailed as the PS3's big turnaround; Wii owners will look to it as their second console of choice.This is in part due to their assumption that Sony will slash the price of the PS3 again this year to entice the Wii audience. Blu-ray dominance also plays a part in this, they say. Mix in some AAA titles as well as the variety of pick up and play titles on the PSN, we'd say that there will be a big jump in PS3 sales, too. But whether or not it's due to the Wii audience seeking a more powerful console is anyone's guess. We'll just say it's because the PS3 will rock this entire year.[Via GameDaily]
Forbes.com writer looks into the future for Warcraft
Tipster Felwrathe forwarded an article to us the other day by Forbes.com writer Michael Noer entitled "The Future of Video Games." He puts Warcraft in this category as well - despite the fact that some would still call it a Computer game rather than a video game (or the more elegant term, vidcon). And while he does manage not to take potshots at the game as others have, he still makes a few somewhat surprising predictions about what the future holds.
Reminder: Guess when Patch 2.4 goes live, win free WoW
Don't forget that we're asking for your guesses on when patch 2.4 will hit the live realms. To enter our contest, just head over to the original post (don't leave a comment on this post, because you can't) and leave a comment with your guess of when the patch will go live using the XX/XX date format (as in, 03/12 for a guess of March 12th).Personally, I think it will be during March, but later, so Adam's mathematical guess of March 25th is pretty good. Then again, I always predict things to come later than they do, so knowing Blizzard, they might drop it earlier in March. But your actual guess is up to you, of course.Enter your comment on that post (not this one) before March 3rd, and be a US resident and 18 years of age or older to enter to win a game card if you pick the correct date (or are closest, or are one of four random people who picked the date, if there are more than four). Good luck everybody, and we'll find out the winner when Blizzard finally drops the new content patch!
How accurate are your favorite video game analysts?
Man, being a video game analyst must be a sweet job. You can put out all sorts of crazy predictions and no one will ever call you on it if you end up being wrong, right? Well, yes, right, until today, because today Kotaku has completed a massive project to rank the truthiness of predictions from some of the most prominent video game industry analysts out there.The results show that even the best prognosticators out there aren't all that infallible -- Michael Pachter, Jeetil Patel and Mitshuhiro Osawa all top out the scale at 60% correct. That might not sound so good, but it looks absolutely glowing when compared to Billy Pidgeon's dismal 10% truthfulness rating (with 20% still to be determined). Want to avoid his ignominious fate? Just be like Piers Harding-Rolls and predict stuff so far into the future no one can tell how accurate your calls are until you've moved on to used car sales or something.The full piece takes an interesting look behind the scenes in analyst-land and provides some good reasons to be cautious of all those stories with headlines that start with "Analyst predicts ..." Do yourself a favor, take a few minutes and give it a read.
Blood Sport: Predictions for the Year of the Rat
Every week, V'Ming - who thinks that gnome warlocks are travesties of nature and need to be KOSed - shares thoughts and ideas on becoming deadlier at the Arenas. He also dabbles in the dark arts in Blood Pact.The year of the Rat is upon us and while this column usually relies on cold hard numbers and shies away from wild speculation and baseless assertions, I shall indulge my Lunar New Year festive mood to venture into some strictly amateur crystal ball gazing for the classes. As with any prediction - astrology, fortune cookies or otherwise - read this with a large pinch of deeprock salt, and understand that a positive attitude is always a good way to overcome defeats and disappointments.This year is the beginning of a new 12-year cycle of the Chinese zodiac and is a better year than the last. However, many changes are still afoot, especially with Wrath of the Lich King on the horizon. The Rat's resourcefulness and enterprising nature gives rise to many opportunities along the way, and you'll have to be as nimble and smart as the Rat to take full advantage of them. Mobility and haste ratings become differentiating factors in winning Arena matches, as Resilience becomes increasingly ubiquitous when more and more players get their Arena gear.Unfortunately, the Rat's intelligence has a dark side and manipulating the system for individual gain is certainly not above the Rat. Good examples are players selling entire Arena teams and other manipulation of the ladder system. There will also be more betrayals and confrontations - also known as drama, whether at the guild or Arena team level - as people grow increasingly restless during this period leading up to the expansion.Let's look at what the year of the Rat means for the various classes in the Arenas, in no particular order.
Predicting patch 2.4
So it's time for WoW Insider to do you all a favor. It seems like whenever we attempt to predict the timing of a certain patch, Blizzard ignores whatever we say, and drops it right away. With patch 2.2, we predicted in early September that it would take "weeks" longer, maybe even last November, and instead they had it out within the month. And with patch 2.3, we guessed that Blizzard wouldn't drop it before Thanksgiving, and just hours later they proved us wrong, and released it before the holiday.So here you go: with everything we've seen on the forums lately, including the CMs a little giddy with excitement, and all of the news that dropped last week, we're going to officially predict that patch 2.4 will drop on the PTRs this coming Tuesday, and that it will hit the live realms sometime in early March (probably before Noblegarden, which starts on March 23rd).There. Now, Blizzard has plenty of chances to prove us wrong by releasing the PTR sometime this week, and getting the patch out to live realms before March 1st. That's our favor to you-- if Blizzard follows their past pattern, they'll make us completely wrong again, and get you on the PTR and in the patch even sooner than we thought.
Prediction Report Card
We came. We predicted. Steve keynoted. (Veni, vidi, keynoti.) So how did we do? Speaking as someone whose predictions were almost uniformly wrong, I'd just like to say thank goodness for Scott McNulty who did worse. He was our worst predictor with his expectations for iTunes 8.0, a revamped Airport Express, and new displays. I was right down there with my iPhone game sales, ubiquitous computing and Bill-Gates-alike retirement scenario. So who rocked the keynote? Who was right on the mark? Mike Schramm was "Teh Man"(TM). He called iTunes 7.6, subnotebook with delayed sales, movie rentals, and the Apple TV update. In second place, Nik called a lot of the same stuff that Mike did but unwisely added Cinema Display updates and Office 2008. Other than that, he practically tied with Mike. So how did you do? Did you guess the keynote? Let us know in the comments.
Ten Ton drops the Hammer on 2008
Almost all gaming sites this time of year weigh in with their predictions for what the new year will bring, but I particularly like what TenTonHammer has seen in their crystal ball. Plus, I just like saying "Ten Ton drops the Hammer." It's fun. Try it.A few of their eight predictions hit close to home with me. In particular, their first prophecy regarding Jumpgate Evolution. I was a huge fan of NetDevil's now defunct MMO, Auto Assault. Not because their shop is only an hour north of me here in Colorado, or that I seemingly enjoy virtually everything NCsoft puts out, but because it was as close to a Mad Max movie as there was. I'm a post apocalyptic junkie. Sadly... it went the way of the Cuban Missile Crisis and died enigmatically. So I can't wait to see how they update their cult sci-fi game, and... well, see how it jumps out of the gate! Oy. Next up, they forecast that Cryptic Studios will at long last release some information about Marvel Universe Online. If I was a gambler I might bet against this, but stranger things have happened. As an obsessed City of Heroes player (and confirmed alt-aholic), my love of the game grew from my passion for comic books. In particular, Marvel comic books. I want to see what the creators of my favorite spandex covered game can do with yet another spandex covered game that's different from the first one, and how are they going to get me to play that one just as much as this one. Confused? So is Britney, but she's doing fine. Sort of.Anyway, be sure to check out Hammer's other prognostications and let us know what you think 2008 holds for this oh so massive industry!
Our 2008 Tabula Rasa wish list: it's sci-fi-tastic!
The past year was a big one for Tabula Rasa and all who call it a virtual home. While most players only had a scant two months to enjoy the worlds that Richard Garriott and company created, the news came thick, and the time was exceedingly well spent. And Massively has been there from the beginning. From the end of beta event to the 24 hours of Tabula Rasa contests, from our visit to the NCsoft office to Richard Garriott's lecture at George Washington University, we've been all over Tabula Rasa like white on rice, and we plan to keep it that way.Having said that, we have a few things we're looking forward to from the Destination Games crew for the year 2008, from the more mundane to the potentially fantastic. As much as we enjoy blasting the Bane in the game's current state, if we had our way, this wish list would be on the public test realm tomorrow.
Predictions for the format war in 2008
Considering that we've already asked you for general tech predictions in 2008, as well as taken the time to peer into your mind about the most anticipated HD innovations, it seems only fair to dedicate a prediction post to the still-raging format war. Of course, if you listen to the analysts, you'll find an incredibly varied selection of responses, but we suppose that follows logic -- you know, considering that we're all really in the dark here. Nevertheless, we figure there's no better way to kick off 2008 (and CES) than to toss out a few outlandish (and we mean outlandish) guesses as to where the format war will be this time next year (if it's still around by then, that is). 1) Warner will indeed go Blu-ray only at CES, sending the HD DVD camp into horrific fits of panic. 2) Warner will throw us all a curveball, confess its unending love for HD DVD and bid adieu to Blu.3) Combo players will experience an unexpected and completely welcome drop in prices, both formats maintain their edge.4) DVD forms a militia, overthrows both high-definition formats.5) Blu-ray finally undercuts HD DVD in the hardware price department, red withers away.6) Online 1080p movie rentals become the norm, sales of both formats sink.7) HD DVD woos a major BD studio (or two), steals away Blu market share.8) A major television manufacturer begins mass marketing sets with either HD DVD / Blu-ray drives within, the excluded format loses ground.9) Blu-ray figureheads offer Toshiba a grotesquely large sum of money to bow out, BDA celebrates for weeks.10) Despite incessant rambling from fanboys the world over, sales remain fairly steady throughout 2008 -- we find ourselves in this very spot as 2009 commences.That's it for our surmising, now let's hear what you all think. You know the drill, drop in your wildest speculation below -- but don't be afraid to mix in a little intelligence, okay?[Thanks for the idea, Tom!]
What will happen to Second Life in 2008?
I generally speaking suck at predictions, but there are some for Second Life that it will be interesting to see what comes through. I'm going to divide them into the technical, the social, competition and the external "big users" categories, basically because that is how they occurred to me.This is obviously going to be quite long, so read on under the fold.
Pachter states the obvious: strong sales in early '08
Oh, that Michael Pachter. Even when he's running off at the mouth, he manages to at least keep us entertained. Now he's back with some terribly obvious predictions on industry sales for the early months of 2008. Pachter's latest revelation? Due to the strong upcoming release schedule, gaming sales will continue to stretch for the heights. Now, we understand that Pachter is an expert and we are but peons here, but, really -- wasn't that a little ... predictable? In keeping with the spirit of prediction here, we have one of our own: we anticipate that the Wii and DS will continue to be snapped up whenever and wherever they appear on shelves for a few months, due to all the people who couldn't get their hands on one during the holidays.
Predicting the MMO landscape in 2008
It's that time of year again-- before 2008 starts, everyone and their brother is going to throw out some predictions about what will happen with MMOs this year. So here's a Massively roundup, and a little meta-analysis of what might happen in this Year of the Potato. Let's start with our own Zenke-- he says Wrath won't make it out in 2008, The Agency and Warhammer will hit big, and Dark Age of Camelot and Vanguard are on their way out. He's also got Tabula Rasa sticking it out for the year, and claims that a major MMO (Age of Conan?) will be delayed past 2008. Ancient Gaming Noob is next: he also says Wrath is shipping late, but goes against popular notions to say that Star Trek Online will be released to cheers from fans on all sides. He also says the biggest story of the year will be Age of Conan's "titties," and that will throw a scare into the "adult" MMO market. He also says, tongue firmly planted in cheek, that Bioware is not actually making an MMO, and the announcement of that will "only spur greater excitement and speculation as to what kind of MMO BioWare is making." Funny. Keen of Keen and Graev expects Warhammer to go gangbusters, but also says Funcom will have trouble with the nudity in AoC, causing them to patch it out. He has Wrath "bombing," but at least he thinks it'll make it out. Lots more predictions for 2008 (including our own) after the jump.
5 PS3 predictions for 2008
Disclaimer: None of these predictions were made by Miss Cleo.Every year, PSP Fanboy made predictions on what will happen in the year ahead. So far, they've been quite successful with many of their visions of the future coming true. Now, we'll have some fun with the PS3. Here's what we're seeing in our crystal ball ...PS3 Prediction #1: Warner Bros. will go Blu-ray exclusive.Rumors have been quite persistent about this major movie studio's upcoming HD plans. With Blu-ray consistently outpacing HD DVD sales, we believe that Warner Bros. will finally feel the need to choose one format over the other. Of course, Toshiba's more than willing to get its moneybags ready for HD DVD. The war will still continue through 2008.PS3 Prediction #2: A new color for PS3 will be introduced.Expect some sexy new colors for PS3, many of which won't appear in the US. Our European and Japanese friends will get special skinned systems for high profile games, like Metal Gear Solid. America may introduce a new premium bundle in White that includes an even larger hard drive and a hotly anticipated game.
