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5 PSP predictions for 2008
An annual tradition for PSP Fanboy continues. We're going to make five predictions for the upcoming year. Will we continue our track record so far?PSP Prediction #1: New limited edition PSP bundles with high-profile games and peripherals.SCEA will release a special gold PSP-2000 system that includes God of War: Chains of Olympus and a Memory Stick for $200. Maybe it'll look something like the fan-made system? We hope so. Also, we're hopeful that Square Enix will release a limited edition bundle with Crisis Core, just as they did in Japan. Finally, Sony will release a PSP system bundled with GPS in the US.PSP Prediction #2: The PSP Store will debut a huge franchise exclusively for download.The PSP Store will get a major game exclusively for download. Don't be surprised if we see either a new LocoRoco or Metal Gear Solid game that'll be available on the Store only. We expect announcements at GDC and E3 later this year.
Predictions for 2008?
Engadgetdamus bids you greetings. With MMVII in the can, we can only direct our ponderations to what fantastical gadgets and events await in the new year. We beseech you, foretell the year's events and present your predictions. Will Android be an out of the gate success, or a slow starter? Will Microsoft without Bill Gates be worse (or better) off? Will Vonage see Jan. 1, 2009? And will we all have multi-touch DisplayPort monitors by then? Will consumers turn on Apple? Will Palm give up the ghost? Can we finally dump our spinning-disk drives in favor of SSDs? Only your latent Engadgetdamus knows what will transpire in MMVIII -- let him speak.See also predictions for 2005, 2006, and 2007.
How accurate were PSP Fanboy's 2007 predictions?
As 2006 came to a close, we took a look into our crystal ball and dared to make a few predictions about what would happen in 2007. How did we fare? Let's take a look ...PSP Prediction #1: Sony will introduce a new portable addition to the PlayStation brand.We thought Sony would focus much more on the media features of the PSP by adding a new XMB-compatible portable. "It'll be smaller than a PSP, feature a video-out, and will be compatible with a revamped PlayStation Store." Looks like the PSP-2000 did exactly that ... but unlike what we predicted, the system didn't include a hard drive.PSP Prediction #2: Revamped PlayStation store features movies and music.We were right about the new PC-enabled PSP Store, and we correctly predicted that Sony would totally snub Mac users. We were also right that Sony would can the failing Connect service. "The PlayStation Store will expand to the PC (but not the Mac), and will offer games, movies, and music for all of Sony's gaming and non-gaming platforms." Unfortunately, we were wrong about movies and music. Looks like Sony's been slow on delivering a multimedia delivery service for the PSP. However, we're glad we were right about downloadable games.
Professor Ondrejka
Linden Lab's departed CTO and co-founder will be spending the (USA) Spring as a visiting professor at USC Annenberg, according to New World Notes, and Ondrejka's new personal blog Collapsing Geography. According to Ondrejka, "I'm now consulting, writing, and speaking about the economic and technological impact of virtual worlds; the interrelation between innovation and learning; and, the requirements of product development across geographically dispersed teams," at least until he figures out what he's going to do next.
The future for virtual worlds
In late October there was a meeting in London called the Virtual Worlds Forum. Although a lot of what they talked about was, perhaps inevitably, Second Life they also had discussions about coming trends, events, and worlds.I'm not sure I want to imagine the forum, but one person's top 20 things for 2008, can be found in Tech Digest. For those of you who don't like reading about Second Life - the good news is that Second Life won't be the only virtual world we're talking about - the bad news is that there will more for us to talk about in a range of worlds!The top three predictions, in case you don't want to see the whole list are: There will be loads of new worlds launched next year; Teen worlds are huge and will continue to be so; Big brand names still need to learn how to handle virtual worlds. The whole article is well worth a read though.
Forbes guesses wildly at Macworld
Forbes is playing it safe with the Macworld predictions this year. Everything you've ever heard rumored about Apple in the last five years? Yeah, it's all here in their Macworld speculation guide. From the sub-notebook, to the iTablet, all the way to the Beatles, an Apple car, and even the old Apple gaming device, they cover pretty much all the bases.In a way, it's good, because at least it means that Forbes has exactly no idea what's coming at the big event. Don't get me wrong-- I'm sure we'll still see it leaked a few days ahead of time by the Washington Post or the New York Times. But at least now, before the holidays, they're as clueless as everybody else.So what is coming to Macworld? At this point, I would be surprised not to see the sub-notebook, and as we said in last week's Talkcast, it would be nice to see an update to the mini and/or the Apple TV. But let's face it: we won't know what Steve is going to talk about until he actually stands on stage and talks about it.
Blizzard was only expecting 1 million WoW subscribers
Former Blizzard producer Bill Roper described the early days of World of Warcraft's development to CVG, saying, "we were hoping we'd be able to sell a million copies of the game." He pointed out that at the time, EverQuest was the gold standard for MMOs, and it only had 500,000 subscribers. "It would have been impossible to predict that World of Warcraft would take off as a cultural phenomenon as it did," he said.He's right; people knew World of Warcraft would be a comparatively big deal, but how could they have predicted 9.3 million players? Throughout the history of persistent world online games, we've been surprised again and again at just how large the market for them can be. There are studios out there who think they can take it even further -- BioWare, for instance. Or maybe the industry will fragment into niche games now. The point is, you can't always predict this stuff. That's what makes it so exciting.In case you were wondering what Roper is up to now, his company Flagship Studios recently released Hellgate: London -- more of a niche title than a mainstream record-buster. Flagship is also working on Mythos, a Diablo-esque-dungeon-crawler.
Due diligence on the Asus/Apple tablet rumor
We should probably have some due diligence on the latest rumors streaming around the Apple blogosphere, so here you go: CNET is claiming that Asus is helping Apple build a sweet new Tablet PC. This is just the latest in a long line of rumors about an ultraportable, and we've heard this so much by now that even if it isn't true, there are probably engineers at Apple right now working on how to make it a reality anyway.I tend to agree with Macenstein: what do we need an Apple Tablet for, anyway? The whole ultraportable idea seems to be based on the fact that people want to see it made, not necessarily that anyone is walking around with an iPhone and a MacBook and still asking for yet another computer to carry around. Don't get me wrong-- if anyone can find a hidden niche for beautiful, usable products, Apple can, but I just don't see where an iTablet would fit in the hierarchy.Now, the last time I speculated on Apple releases (I said we wouldn't see new MacBooks for a while), Apple decided to release MacBook updates just hours later, so for everyone out there hoping to see a new Apple Tablet, try this on: my guess is that Apple won't release an iTablet in January. Now, when I'm dead wrong (as usual), I'll just be able to claim that I predicted the opposite of what I thought so we'd get the product we wanted.
DFC predicts bright future for games, dim one for Xbox 360
Another day, another extremely long-range analysis of the video game market's future. This time the prediction comes from DFC Intelligence through a press release stating the total worldwide market for video games could grow to a staggering $47 billion by 2009 (from $33 billion in 2006). DFC foresees the strongest growth coming from the PC market (driven by online game revenue) and the portable market (driven by the Nintendo DS, which "could eventually become the best selling game system ever in five years" according to DFC's David Cole).That's nice about the industry growth and all, but the real red meat for the fanboys comes later in the release, when DFC reveals they've lowered their forecast for the performance of the Xbox 360. The currently-hot system "will need to build a strong base outside North America to avoid being in a fairly distant third," Cole said in a statement sure to rile up the Microsoft Defense Forces. As for the battle for first, Cole thinks the Wii will dominate through 2008 with the PS3 coming on strong in 2009, possibly leading to an odd long-term situation where Nintendo has sold more hardware but Sony generates more software revenue.We at Joystiq think this all this prognosticating is a bit shortsighted. After all, it doesn't take into account how the surging interest in the Dreamcast will lead to Sega's triumphant return to the hardware market and eventual domination of the same by 2023. Hey, if analysts can make wild, long-term predictions, then so can we!
Analysts: PS3 will overtake Xbox 360 by 2009
One of our favorite aspects of covering the video game industry are analyst predictions. Oftentimes, they're entirely off base, but every now and then, they get things right. Hopefully, DFC Intelligence's new report will be spot on. The company released several reports predicting the PlayStation 3 will overtake the Xbox 360 in overall console sales due to a massive surge in the gaming industry in 2009.While the research group doesn't believe the PS3 will move ahead of the Wii in total hardware numbers, it predicts the PS3 will generate more software revenue than Nintendo's console by 2012. "We could have a situation where the Wii sells more hardware units, but by 2012 the PlayStation 3 is generating more software revenue," said David Cole, a DFC analyst.However, this isn't the first time a research group has predicted Sony's dominance early next decade. With so many analysts coming together saying the same thing, one of them is bound to be right ... right? Let's just hope they're not all looking at the same report![Via IGN]
More analysts predict PS3 ahead of Xbox in July
Pachter ain't the only analyst predicting the July NPD numbers will show the PS3 has finally outsold the Xbox 360. Turns out Lazard's Colin Sebastian predicts the same thing, saying the PS3 price cut gave the console its expected sales bump for July, while the Xbox 360 hardware issues finally coming to light will cause sales to lag. The Wii and DS will keep doing what they do and make Nintendo gobs of cash.Yes, you can all release your collective "duh" now, but it's still Sebastian's job to say it. He says Activision should see a 200% growth in July, based on Guitar Hero and Transformer sales, whereas EA should expect a 10% decline (remember, this doesn't involve Madden '08 money). Well, whatever the stars tell the analysts, all will be revealed this Thursday by the NPD numbers.
DS Daily: Your E3 predictions
We've been laying down some predictions -- albeit ridiculous, silly predictions -- for quite a while now, and while we may just get serious later ('cause E3 is serious business), we thought it might be a good time to take a break and ask you what you think will happen at the new show. Got any hot predictions for DS announcements? Maybe a redesign (god, why?) or a price drop (if only)? Spill 'em!
TUAW Predictions Roundup for WWDC '07
It's that time of season again, oh dear TUAW readers: the time just before a major Apple event when we TUAW bloggers look deep into our crystal balls to make both wild and sensible predictions as to what WWDC 07 might bring us next week. This time around we have a fairly rich selection of rumored products (like iMac updates) and updates we all thought we would see at Macworld 07 (iLife 07 anyone?). Without further ado, and without any of that silly 'insider knowledge' tainting the perspective of our crystal balls, here are the predictions of some of our TUAW bloggers (in no particular order) for what WWDC 07 might bring us next week.
Obvious Macworld predictions
And from out in left field we have: theflanneleffect! I have no idea who flannel is, but their blog has the snark turned up to about a 12... Calling John Gruber names isn't their only claim to fame though, they have Macworld predictions! Yes, I know, so does my dog. But a big shout out to this very blog (tuaw, you're soaking in it) goes a long way in these anxiety-filled last few hours before the keynote. So flannel, here's hoping your very obvious predictions come true beyond your wildest dreams. Because as we all know, it's about time they did that![thanks Chris!]
5 PSP predictions for 2007
Now that 2007 has started, there's a whole lot of potential for the PSP. In similar fashion to last year, I'll give you five PSP predictions, but be warned: these are far more daring than last year's incredibly accurate predictions. Feel free to disagree with me, or give your own predictions in the comments section.PSP Prediction #1: Sony will introduce a new portable addition to the PlayStation brand.And it won't be a PSP redesign. In many ways, it will be exactly the same as the PSP: it will feature an upgradeable XMB that features Photos, Music and Videos. It will even be compatible with PSP accessories, such as the headset, GPS, and camera. Heck, it'll even play UMD movies. However, there's one thing it won't do: play games. The device will be set as a competitor to the iPod and will feature a portable hard drive. It'll be smaller than a PSP, feature a video-out, and will be compatible with a revamped PlayStation Store (see prediction #2).PSP Prediction #2: Revamped PlayStation store features movies and music.The Connect brand will be abandoned as Sony moves its digital distribution ambitions to the PlayStation Store. PS3 owners will be able to download HD movies directly to their systems. The 1080P downloads will also include free access to PSP-formatted versions of the film as an added value. The PlayStation Store will expand to the PC (but not the Mac), and will offer games, movies, and music for all of Sony's gaming and non-gaming platforms. With unrestricted access to Columbia Pictures, and a large audience of media-hungry PS3 and PSP owners, the PlayStation Store will be successful (a very distant second next to Apple's iTunes Store).PSP Prediction #3: A popular Microsoft franchise will appear on PSP.Although there are rumors that Microsoft plans to transform Zune into a gaming device, I think Microsoft will skip this generation's battle and support the PSP with one title from its library (which includes franchises like Halo, Gears of War, MechAssault). They've already allowed Majesco and THQ to publish multiple DS & GBA games, such as Age of Empires.PSP Prediction #4: A future firmware upgrade will boost PSP speed to 333MHz.Sony will finally unlock the PSP's full technical potential by allowing developers to use all 333HMz of PSP's processing power (the system currently is limited to 222MHz). Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas Stories will be among the first games released to take advantage of the upgrade.PSP Prediction #5: Expect tons of established franchises & far less original IPs.Okay, I wanted at least one sure-thing on this list. The PSP hasn't launched too many original IPs in its two-year life span. Publishers will look at sales and will continue to bring ports, remakes, and sequels to their established franchises. We'll see some of these announced or released throughout the year: Soul Calibur, Resident Evil, and yes, another Metal Gear Solid.[Update 1: Corrected some info in prediction #3.]
TUAW predictions for Macworld 07
It's the new year boys and girls, which means (amongst other things) that Macworld will soon be upon us. As such, it is only fitting that we dust off TUAW's crystal ball to envision what we think will be unveiled both on and off stage. Now we don't have any insider information - this is all simply logical deduction sprinkled with some wishful thinking, so don't bet the bank on any of this. That said, we present you TUAW's predictions for Macworld 07, in order of blogger's last name:Victor Agreda Jr. Google integration (iTV + YouTube) API's for iTV (for El Gato, in particular). Maybe that's a wish; I really, truly doubt Apple and El Gato will play in the same sandbox HD content on iTunes ('07 is the true year of HD) A gold nano - for Steve, as he announces retiring in 2008 Some sort of Spreadsheet addition to iWork 07 .Mac will "somehow get better" David Chartier I agree with everyone else: iLife and iWork 07 are a sure thing No Apple iPhone - mostly because, if true, it could possibly go down in history as one of the most hyped yet never announced fanaticware products of all time I've been hoping for a video update to the AirPort Express, but it seems like the iTV more or less kills that idea; I predict it ships at Macworld On Leopard: I again agree with everyone else on a ship date being announced Laurie A. Duncan The Mac mini will get a Core 2 Duo upgrade - although not necessarily across the line. I wouldn't put it past them to keep the sub-$600 model a single Core Duo A major iTunes-related content announcement Hopefully a new stand-alone iSight camera because as much as I dig the convenience of having one built in to my iMac and MacBook, it's not terribly convenient for scanning my many shelves of books into Delicious Library, for instance (I still have my old FW iSight for such occassions, but a shiny new one would be nice) I am fairly certain we'll get to hear what the "iTV" will actually be called, along with a ship date and I'm pretty sure we'll hear a Leopard ship date I'm not seeing an iPhone(y) (aka iVox in the pretend world where I am in charge of such things) in my crystal ball, although I suspect there will be a number of jokes about it Mat Lu Leopard released earlier than expected iTV finalized revised iPods no iPhone CS3 released earlier than expected Dan Lurie Release date and complete feature set for Leopard iLife/Work '07 iTV release date and complete feature set. iPhone (You have no idea how much I want this one to be right) Scott McNulty iLife and iWork 07 Refreshed Cinema Displays Leopard ship date announced Michael Rose Likewise on Leopard release date Minimum of three additional studios for iTunes movie store "iTV" official announcement, integration with Elgato products for capture Major digital asset management product announcement for pro video space, stemming from Proximity acquisition One more thing: 8-core Mac Pro One MORE more thing: iPod Phone - multi-service chat presence included Erica Sadun iLife and iWork 07 iTV ships Leopard ship date iPhone announcement iDogCow - because every good prediction should have an absolutely wrong item in it. Viva Clarus. Moof! There you have it - we'll just have to see next week which of our crystal balls is the clearest. What do y'all think? Are we off the mark, or did we miss anything you're betting the house on? Gambling habits aside, feel free to share your own predictions in the comments.
Predictions for 2007?
Engadgetdamus bids you greetings; in the wake of 2006, many questions from this time last year still remain unanswered. Which console will come out on top? And how will that weigh in on the next-gen optical war between Blu-ray and HD DVD? When will we just start downloading everything -- from games to TV shows -- so we can be done with all these messy physical formats? Will we finally get the Optimus keyboard? Will Apple get it over with and finally release a wireless widescreen video iPod and/or cellphone? We want as much as anyone to know what 2007 will bode for technology, but only you can channel your inner Engadgetdamus. Indulge yourself and lay down your best predictions for MMVII. See also: predictions for 2005 and 2006.
Better than Nostradamus: PSP Fanboy's totally accurate 2006 predictions
This might creep you out. Or not. Back in January, Ed wrote up a list of five predictions he had for the PSP for the year 2006. How many did he get right? You may be surprised. Let's take a look:PSP Prediction #1: The UMD movie market will collapse. "It will continue to be priced too high and include the bare minimum in terms of value add (we should have predicted this for 2005)... Inventories will rise, prices will plummet and new content being delivered on the format will level off to something more sustainable by the market."Andrew comments: Ed hit this right on the head. UMDs were never priced the way they should've, and consumers responded. UMD continues Sony's line of producing unsuccessful media formats. Is Blu-Ray next?PSP Prediction #2: The PSP will take on some very specific colors. "Count on at least two new colors, including a hot-rod red and a camo green, possibly marketed with or around the likes of, oh, let's say Gran Turismo 4 and Metal Gear Solid."Andrew comments: While the US market continues to be ignored, Sony has released a number of colors in international markets. Scarily, like the camo green PSP... for Metal Gear Solid. However, to think Gran Turismo 4 would ever come out was silly!PSP Prediction #3: The PSP will allow you to access your PS3 from anywhere. "You'll be able to access PSP content content that is stored on your PS3's HDD (media, game saves, whatever) by accessing it via the PSP over a wifi Internet connection... You won't be streaming PS3 games or anything like that, but who needs memory sticks now?"Andrew comments: Wow. Great job predicting a feature months before its ever announced. Remote Play support does allow you to access your PS3's hard drive in almost the exact same way Ed mentioned. However, you won't be able to access it "from anywhere" until next year.PSP Prediction #4: The PSP will get a price drop and then some. "Yeah, this one is a bit of a no-brainer, but we wanted to get at least 1 out of 5 right. The PSP will certainly see a price drop this year (likely sometime in the Fall, but possibly at E3). We expect the drop to be in the $50 dollar range."Andrew comments: The "no-brainer" proves to be the only prediction to not come true. Sony shed $50 by going Core, but that isn't a price drop, persay. Ed predicted free goodies to be given away with every system, but Sony proves with its Entertainment Pack that it wants you to pay for bad pack-in UMD movies.PSP Prediction #5: Sony will completely botch PSP advertising in 06.Andrew comments: Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding!How will PSP Fanboy fare with our 2007 predictions? You'll have to come back in a few weeks when we unveil them!
This week's "Why next-gen DVDs are already dead" article
Let's start off the week with an article on Slate about why both Blu-ray and HD DVD are already dead: Downloads, hard drives, and the cost of equipment make up a few reasons why some are saying next-gen DVD is already done before it's even gone mainstream. We're not so sure though, and here are some counterpoints to the article: The Internet: Alright, so you can already download movies and HD content online. But it takes forever (think 30 to 50 gigs, or more layers aplenty), and is usually bundled with more annoying DRM than AACS provides. Want to move it between devices? Sorry. Want to play it eight, or ten, or 100 days after you bought it? Perhaps not. On Demand: The studios would love it if everything you consumed was on-demand. Then you'd never own anything, and they could control when and where you watch it. Oh, but what about in your car on a road trip, or on the train in your video player? And there are plenty of consumers -- count us in on that! -- who like owning physical media, being able to look at album art and boxes and liner notes. Even if distribution is figured out, there's something about having a physical copy of your content that's reassuring. Equipment: We can see the argument against buying yet another piece of hardware that may or may not work out of the box, or have firmware issues, or upscale your standard-def media well, but with existing DVD players at less than $50, and next-gen players sure to hit that mark eventually, it's not exactly preventing anyone from buying in the long run. Media should similarly drop as time goes by, with Blu-ray and HD DVD discs selling for minor margins above standard DVDs. Finally, people are paying thousands for PS3s and Wiis these days, why not pay $199 for an HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360? Hard Drives: Sure, hard drives are cheap and hold a lot of data, but with dual-layer discs holding 30 to 50 gigs, and up to 100 or more planned, they aren't exactly slacking. Also, discs are more portable, and more resistant to drops and shocks. So, what does everyone else think? Is the next-gen media done before its time? Or is it ahead of its time? Will media stick around for a while longer, or are you ready for the on-demand, downloadable-only future?[ Via Slashdot ]
Wii tops PC World's holiday list
Check it out -- the Wii is once again tops on a retail predictions list. Since PC World is a European retailer, it may not be much of a surprise that they've anointed Nintendo in the console wars for this holiday season (as there's no PS3 in store), but they've also picked the console as the hottest must-have when it comes to electronics.The Wii took the top spot of their ten predictions for the hottest movers and shakers of the season. Unlike many other lists, however, the Wii is nowhere near the most expensive item on this wishlist. Check after the jump for the full rundown. PC World was one of the early outlets to offer preorders for the Wii in the UK ... looks like they've taken off!
