predictions
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High-def DVDs critical for future growth, says analyst group
If you've been reading our fine site for any length of time now, you might want to sit down while you're reading this because Kagan Research has released the Eleventh Edition of their State of Home Video report, and it says that high-definition DVDs are the future. Pretty shocking stuff for our regular readers and listeners of the podcast. Now, we all knew that despite the many heated battles we've had between the two formats, that this wasn't going to happen overnight, and the Kagan analysts have some numbers to go with their predictions. For the time being, high-def will be a speck in the distance for home video sales, with less and a half of a percent (a mere 100 million or so) of the $16.9 billion to be had in one year. By 2009, they predict VHS will be all but gone -- as if it weren't now?? -- and HD will be $2.6 billion, up to around 15% of the total. That's still not exactly a huge amount, and it will take up to 2015 for it to be the majority at $18.3 billion.Of course, for video in general, the boom times are already on the way out, as consumers simply can't buy any more videos than they already are, so the rapid growth we've been seeing for the past five years will slow to a more manageable 1 - 2% a year. A slowing of rental revenues will also contribute, as customers begin to get more content through video on demand and streaming than renting at the local store or via Netflix. Online revenues have also grown 67% faster than physical store sales since 1997. Another number to note is that 491 titles were released on DVD in 2005, with 158 so far this year in high definition. Give a few more releases for the remainder of the year, and we can give a decent prediction of 238 by January, which means almost half of the number released on standard DVD. Not terrible for the launch year of two brand new formats, and considering the percentage of sales expected.
TUAW "It's Showtime!" predictions
It's that time ladies and gentlemen: the pre-event post where the TUAW team put it all on the line and offer up their predictions on what we'll be throwing down our credit cards for after tomorrow's It's Showtime special event. In all actuality, there isn't much on the line for us, but it's still fun to see how close we can come to predicting Apple's product roadmap. Without further adieu, here are our predictions, in no particular order:Scott McNulty plays it safe with predictions that echo the rest of the Apple-anxious internets: New iPod Movies in the iTunes Music Store iTunes 7 Dan Pourhadi is as excited for iPods as the rest of us, but is also hoping for something new along the lines of other video devices, including even some sort of an Apple TV: Movie download service Video streaming device (and possibly TVs to go with it) Some kind of new iPod (leaning towards metal nano) Dave Caolo is keeping it conservative as well: Movies in iTunes Updated iPod David Chartier (yours truly) - I don't feel the need to echo what's already been said, but I am also tossing my bet in with Dan Pourhadi on a video streaming device in the specific form of an updated AirPort Express, as it is probably the Apple product of all the potential new gadgets tomorrow that hasn't been touched, updated or so much as sneezed at for the longest time. Also, along with Scott's prediction of iTunes 7, I think the new version will usher in a new name for the store.I'll also take the liberty to throw down some non-predictions: I don't think tomorrow will have anything to do with Macs whatsoever, including these new rumors of a sub-Mac Pro tower and new chips in MacBook Pros. I think tomorrow is all about the entertainment, iPods and any related gadgets, baby!But don't take our word for it - we'll find out in about 16 hours whether we're one step closer to gaining 'magic 8-ball' status. Stay tuned!
WWDC Predictions from TUAW
It's prognostication time again. Before every major Apple Event, TUAW bloggers offer their predictions on what, if anything, Apple will release or announce. Sometimes we're right; sometimes we're wrong. With WWDC less than one week away, it's time to dust off our psychic hats and offer up what we see coming from Apple:Conrad Quilty-HarperPretty certain- Mac minis move to 1.66 Core Solo/1.86 Core Duo (with lower price points?)- New Intel Xserves- New Cinema Displays- Mac Pro- 10.5 demo, beta disks to developers, new naming scheme (big cats are old)Not so certain- Core 2 Duo iMacs- 6G iPods? Smaller, cheaper shuffles? Bigger capacity nanos? OLED displays- New hardware all feature Nvidia cards/Intel integrated, no more ATIDamien BarrettThe safe money is on the Mac Pro as a replacement for the G5 PowerMacs, utilizing the new Intel Core 2 Duo processors. Probably a new case design with a smaller footprint.A longer shot, but still likely, is the release or announcment of Apple's iPhone. The new iPod software appears to include references to phone-related functions and other industry people have been talking openly about Apple's foray into this market.Unlikely, but I just can't let a prediction cycle pass without wishing for it: an iTablet. Work bought me a Dell Axim X51 and it's nice, but using it is just as clunky as using Windows. I want the elegance of OS X but in a largish PDA or tablet form factor. If anyone can do it, Apple can.Dave CaoloI'm keeping it simple. Mac Pro, 10.5 ship date (and demo, of course).Dan LurieI'm sticking with Dave in that I'm only predicting 10.5 ship date and Mac Pro's as a certainty. Less certain but still possible is the iPhone, which analysts are expecting. They know a lot more than we do. David Chartier- Mac Pro with Core 2 Duo - those chips will be reserved for these machines, not the consumer line- Shiny new Cinemas to go with said Mac Pro- iPod nano bump (they haven't been touched since their introduction, hey? Besides the 1 GB of course. But going down in size doesn't count)- 10.5 preview with a really close launch date of Oct/Nov at latest. Probably Sept. Just in time for the holidays!- Jobs will be wearing Nikes again. All hail Nike. Also: finally a public apology for letting the Finder suck so bad for so long (hah).Scott McNultyAs for predictions, I'm just going with a Leopard ship date and that's it.Victor Agreda, Jr.Quad Core Xserves, Brainwave-controlled 6G iPods, Leopard will ditch Finder for an OpenDoc-esque system based on Spotlight, and Nanos in Tiger fur...Oh, and clearly the Cinema displays with built-in iSights are a lock.
Develop: Everything you know about MMOs is wrong - apparently
Thomas Bidaux of NCsoft Europe didn't pull any punches with his presentation at the UK's Develop conference. Instead, the MMO giant's director of product development outlined four major ways in which the MMO world will be turned on its head. Or, rather, the 'online' world -- rather than limit himself to MMOs, Thomas talked about online games as a whole.
Rumor: Get a Wii for free
A tipster sent in some information on what he believes Nintendo's Wii pricing will look like to Infendo yesterday evening. The tip says that the prospective Wii customer would essentially get their Wii for free if they succeeded to purchase either 4 games for the console or 3 games for the console and an extra controller with the nunchuck attachment. Obviously, without official backup we have to assume this is all lies, but it would be an interesting way to "sell" the console and the proposed cost of $199.99 falls in line with current predictions of pricing.
Pitchford predicts PS360?
A few weeks ago I was all set to link to a random editorial predicting that Microsoft and Sony would eventually join forces. My editors nixed the piece as rabid fanboy crap, but apparently they never talked to Gearbox Prez Randy Pitchford:I still hold onto my prediction from a couple years back that, eventually, Sony will be licensing the video game operating system software from Microsoft. Perhaps Sony’s experiences with their new online initiative will actually make that difficult-to-imagine step a little easier… If Microsoft can ever figure out how to gain traction and trust as a gaming platform in Japan, I believe that the two companies will rapidly desire to become partners instead of competitors. It sounds counter to expectations at first because we are so caught up in the competition, but I assure you that I could explain why the concept of an eventual partnership between Sony and Microsoft has merit.Actually, the rabid fanboy went a little further and said MS would buy out Sony's video game business all together (Like I said, he was rabid). Fortunately for Sony, Kutaragi has sworn he will literally enter the Fourth Dimension and reverse time if this occurs, preventing what surely must be considered console war Armegeddon. Pitchford's comments are part of Next-Gen.biz Q&A that talks to various industry bigshots about the PS3, Blu-Ray and Sony's online strategy. Definitely worth a read.
Apple Store grand opening predictions
Apple has confirmed 25 new Apple Stores for this summer, but there are another 21 unconfirmed openings out there, just teasing us. When will they debut? The folks at ifoAppleStore have made their best guess based on previous construction, opening and hiring schedules. They've taken this information and produced a chart that represents their predictions for all 46 locations. Consider it a Farmer's Almanac for Apple Stores.
Prediction: One virtual world to rule them all
This Wired piece by technology thinker Steven Johnson is a neat summary of a prediction about virtual worlds that's becoming increasingly common. If you take a step back from the MMOs and other online pursuits of today, you see a lot of standalone bubbles of activity with one common factor--you. However, you can't cross the boundaries between worlds, taking your Halo 2 friends list and reputation into EverQuest or sending your Animal Crossing characters messages from your mobile.The prediction is that, relatively soon in the future, this won't be the case. As in The Matrix, as in Neal Stephenson's Snow Crash, one virtual world (or metaverse, if you prefer) will connect everything together:Within a decade, then, the notion of separate game worlds will probably seem like a quaint artifact of the frontier days of virtual reality. You'll still be able to engage in radically different experiences - from slaying orcs to cybersex - but they'll occur within a common architecture.The heterogeneous environment of home computing in the 1980s underwent a similar transformation; now it's virtual worlds' turn. Whether a proprietary product like Second Life (which resembles a fledgling metaverse) will come to the fore, or whether it will (like the Internet itself) evolve out of open standards and protocols, only time will tell--either way, in ten years' time people will look back on this post, from their virtual homes in a virtual reality, and laugh.[Via Terra Nova]See also: Wharton Dean: virtual worlds are the future of MBA education Virtual crucifixion punishes bad behaviour onlineIs online gaming antisocial?
Warren Spector: Will the real future please stand up?
Back in November, Warren Spector caused something of a stir with his comments about the state of the games industry, including an aside slamming Grand Theft Auto. What Spector was really on about was the use of clichéd violence in mainstream gaming, and The Escapist has given him a soapbox to follow up on his speech from last year and elaborate.He asks an important question: what's in store for the future of gaming? "Depending on how you look at things, you can paint a picture of gaming's bright future of growing profits and importance, or one of doom and gloom - of irrelevance and stagnation. Either could be true. Which future is our real future? Will we go mainstream or marginal?"Gaming seems bound for the mainstream one way or another, but Spector addresses an overlooked possibility--that it will lose its mainstream appeal, and go back to the sidelines like so many media fads of the past have done. He outlines that gaming is at a crossroads at the moment, and the demands of a mainstream audience will cause game developers (and the industry as a whole) to make a series of crucial decisions in years to come. Gaming won't die, but it's easy to agree with this point: It's just that it's relatively easy for me to imagine scenarios where mainstream audiences get sick of us, sick of the product we offer them, sick of repetitive, seemingly-but-not-really interactive, emotion-free, slam-bang, U.S.-centric, urban, hip hop action games and alien invasion scenarios.Cliché-slamming and thought-provoking--it'll be interesting to see Spector's followup articles in future Escapist issues.
Single player gaming doomed, say execs [UPDATE 1]
At the Churchill Club in California yesterday, Peter Moore wasn't the only one gazing into his crystal ball. Raph Koster of Sony Online Entertainment and Lars Butler, formerly of EA, were cheerfully predicting the downfall of single-player gaming, with Koster going so far as to say that the last 21 years of gaming history are an aberration.Drawing from the fundamental principle that "people play games together", Koster and Butler predict a huge shift in the games industry as the impact of online gaming starts to really hit home. Butler's claim that "linear entertainment in single-player is to media what masturbation is to sex" is eerily similar to David Jaffe's comparison between games and porn. Experiences are enriched by the presence of other people, and perhaps the depth of multiplayer gaming and the online social interaction embodied in these games can provide the emotional content that Jaffe finds so lacking.[Via Raph's Weblog][Update: Raph has written a much more detailed explanation behind his statement.]
DICE: Garriotts predict MMO industry's future
Brothers Robert and Richard Garriott outlined their visions of the MMO industry's future at DICE today. Richard, aka Lord British, sees a shake-up on the cards: he predicts that within three to five years, many of the startups will drop out of the market, leaving only five companies playing the MMO game.It's an interesting vision to have, and presumably the Garriotts are hoping that NCsoft will be one of the five. However, with the recent growth of some niche MMOs, it seems there is a place for smaller companies and startups; as players become bored of the more popular titles, they may seek out similar experiences elsewhere, boosting the popularity of titles that may not have the international resources of Sony Online Entertainment or NCsoft.
Joystiq predicts 2006: the predictioning
It's that time of year again, when sagacious video game pundits scratch their scholarly heads and stroke their scholarly beards while gazing into their crystal balls to forecast, often with uncanny accuracy and insight, the resolution of industry occurrences, and suggest corollaries thereof. Unfortunately, none of these savants were available, or even existed, for us to use, so we took it upon ourselves to fill the role as best we could. In collaboration with the standing (and as yet, still valid!) predictions of PSP Fanboy, DS Fanboy, and Xbox 360 Fanboy, we present... drum roll, please: Joystiq's predicts 2006: the predictioning.
Cringley's crystal ball
Robert X. Cringely wraps each year with a set of tech predictions for the year ahead. Last year he was a bit off his game, but that hasn't stopped him from taking a stab at what lies ahead for a variety of tech players in 2006. His top three predictions involve Apple and are intriguing to say the least. For instance, he sees a Terabyte of download capacity for .Mac users (for real this time), iMacs sporting huge plasma displays for screens, and major inroads against Microsoft and in the internet video arena. Check out The Pulpit for a full run down and chime in below with a few of your own predictions!
TUAW predictions roundup for Macworld 06 keynote
Alright everyone, we're on the home stretch for tomorrow's keynote, and we thought it would be fun to round up predictions (hopes?) from some of the TUAW bloggers of what will be introduced. Some of these predictions might be honing in on rumors, others could simply be baseless hope for a particular product. The main point of this post is to spark some conversation about what we could see tomorrow to help pass the time and keep the shakes from setting in. So without further ado, here are TUAW's predictions for the Macworld 06 keynote: C.K. - black Intel iBooks running on flash memory Damien Barrett - a Mac mini media center with iLife '06, programmable remote Dave Caolo - iLife '06 including FrontRow David Chartier - a nearly-finished preview of 10.5 Leopard, with a release scheduled before Vista (like that's hard to do) Laurie A. Duncan - iWork 06 gets a major update, finally offering a viable alternative to Office for OS X Scott McNulty - Sell your songs on iTunes, publish your blog on .Mac, get your vlog streaming from Apple's servers Victor Agreda Jr - AirPort Express update that includes video streaming So there you have our hopes and predictions for what we'll see on stage tomorrow. I think we all agreed that we won't see any new iPods, as some of these potential new products (like a Mac mini media center) could really carry the line they have out now. Time will only tell, so until then, feel free to discuss.
