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Gartner says Microsoft will surpass Apple in mobile by 2015
That's the prediction from analysts at Gartner today. In a new report, Gartner's experts say the Microsoft-Nokia partnership will give Windows the number 2 spot in 2015, with a 20 percent market share after the Android OS grabs 48.8 percent of the smartphone market. Gartner predicts Apple will have a 17.2 percent share by 2015, just behind Microsoft, but will remain a solid number 2 in the worldwide market through 2014. IDC had a similar prediction last month. Gartner bases its Apple predictions on a belief that Apple will be more interested in maintaining margins rather than market share. Perhaps. Somehow, the gurus at Gartner missed the fact that Apple is maintaining leadership in the tablet space with some of the lowest prices and feature-rich products available. Like most research firms, Gartner is pretty good at predicting the near future, which, frankly, is pretty easy, but not so good at looking out into the distance. Gartner was raving about netbooks a few years ago, and sales of netbooks have all but collapsed after the launch of the iPad last year. Gartner has rather consistently missed the rise of Android until lately, but hardly anyone saw that juggernaut coming. The truth is, predicting the future accurately is pretty tough. Take a look at the 1939 World's Fair movie that predicted the 1960s. Hmmmm. Not so good. [Via BusinessInsider]
Up to 20% of iPad owners expected to upgrade
Mike Abramsky, a technology analyst for RBC Capital Markets, predicts up to 20% of the original iPad's buyers will upgrade to the iPad 2 over the next 12 months. But Abramsky suggests the number of customers upgrading to iPad 2 will be eclipsed by buyers new to the platform. With over 15 million units sold since launching last April, the original iPad is considered to be one of the most successful technology product launches in history. Abramsky, like many analysts, expects the iPad 2 to outperform its predecessor from day one. His predictions indicate Apple will sell at least 500,000 units of the iPad 2 this weekend and 28 million units before the end of 2011. These numbers suggest Apple will welcome at least 25 million new iPad customers in the coming months. Customers bought approximately 300,000 iPads on its first day of availability in April, 2010, and analysts are expecting almost twice as many to sell over the next few days.
iPad 2: Our last second guesses
At TUAW, we love predictions, especially when we have few solid facts to rely on and rumors galore to work with. Here's what we're predicting for today's announcement. As always, we'll revisit our guesses after the fact and score our team for accuracy. Dana Franklin: I expect to see the iPad sequel of my dreams. A drool-worthy device that's sleeker, thinner, and lighter than the original and offers dual cameras with support for FaceTime. With GDC this week, today's announcement will definitely highlight the entertainment value of the iPad: perhaps offering bigger speakers and new peripheral support. The event will almost definitely showcase a parade of developers expressing their love for the platform or announcing new or upcoming software titles for the iPad. We may even see a sneak peek of iOS 5, featuring a more robust suite of could computing technologies integrated with MobileMe. Dave Caolo: Thinner, camera, more RAM, faster processor. Rich Gaywood: I predict for today: 1) a relatively modest iPad 2 upgrade 2) millions of blogs about how Apple disappoints 3) huge sales 4) profit!. Thinner, bigger speaker. Modest changes. More RAM would be the most visible user change, I think. more CPU and GPU don't matter much because developers won't target it aggressively as they'd leave too many sales on the table. Plus apart from games, I don't think I've used anything that feels like it's pushing the CPU. However, I am not going to drop £300+ upgrading just to increase the RAM.
When it comes to forecasting Apple's earnings, amateurs are better than the pros
The Challenge: predict seven key metrics of Apple's fiscal success over the past quarter -- such as sales numbers, profit margins, and gross revenue -- with the highest accuracy. The Competitors: In the blue corner, a bunch of amateur finance bloggers, and in the red corner, a cabal of professional analysts making mad dough at banks and trading houses. The Conclusion: whatever you're paying for your "expert" advice on the future financial wellbeing of Apple, or any other tech stock for that matter, stop. Just... stop.
Talkcast tonight, 7 PM PT/10 PM ET: Crystal Ball Edition!
It is time! This week we have plenty to discuss, including the Mac App Store's debut and the white Verizon iPhone confirmation. As such, this calls for a freshly-baked batch of random speculation, so tonight I'll be hosting live from my House Of Crackpot Theories. We might even have a few developers along to give us some actual insight and bring balance to the conversation. Your calls and questions help us make the show the best it can be, otherwise I'm just talking to myself! To participate on TalkShoe, you can use the browser-only client, the embedded Facebook app, or the classic TalkShoe Pro Java client; however, for maximum fun, you should call in. For the web UI, just click the "TalkShoe Web" button on our profile page at 4 HI/7 PDT/10 PM EDT Sunday. To call in on regular phone or VoIP lines (yay for free cell phone weekend minutes!): dial (724) 444-7444 and enter our talkcast ID, 45077 -- during the call, you can request to talk by keying in *8. If you've got a headset or microphone handy on your Mac, you can connect via the free Gizmo or X-Lite SIP clients; basic instructions are here. Talk with you then!
Hyperspace Beacon: Always in motion is the future
Boot your navi-computer, angle your deflector shields, and prepare for the jump to lightspeed. This year will be the greatest year in the history of MMO gaming. I don't mean because Star Wars Galaxies is shutting down, because it's not, and that would be a sad year. I mean that the most anticipated game in the history of MMOs will be released this year. Star Wars: The Old Republic will make its way to our doors and our hearts this spring. (I cross my fingers, hoping for no delay, but I know it's probably inevitable.) As the release nears, we will certainly see a plethora of updates and secret reveals. We had our share of SWTOR news last year, and as with every game, the hype-machine presses on with a fevered fervor towards its zenith. There is so much we know about this game already, yet at the same time, we know very little. We are really like a Miraluka on a Vong ship. (You get 500 fanboy points if you understand that reference.) We keep bumping into walls, but we don't really see the whole picture. Honestly, I question whether I want to know the whole picture before the game is released. Let's tap into our Force foresight a bit today to see whether we can muster a few visions. Maybe we'll see a city in the clouds; maybe we'll see our friends being tortured. Maybe we'll find out we are really Revan! What will be revealed in 2011? Follow me after the break to find out!
Citibank: Apple could pull in $2 billion in App Store revenues in 2011
Right before the year switched over, Citibank released its "US Internet Stock 2011 Playbook," and in there was an interesting prediction about the App Store. Despite what seems like constantly falling prices and the rise of "freemium" apps, Citibank expects Apple to pull in $2 billion in gross app revenue in 2011 alone. That's comparable to gross revenue for the entire online video advertising market, according to TechCrunch. And presumably this is just the iOS App Store -- later this week we'll be seeing the first fruits of the Mac App Store arrive, and it's likely that market will pull in a nice chunk of change for Apple as well. Smartphone software in general is also set to grow -- Citibank says that by 2013, the app market should be worth around $27 billion (that includes, of course, Android and any other platforms that should emerge in the next few years). Demand is strong for smartphone hardware, but I don't think the exponential growth of apps will continue for years into the future. Then again, who can tell? This is a market that barely existed just a few years ago, so where it's headed from here is anyone's guess. [via Loop Insight]
GamersFirst's predictions for the video games industry in 2011
While end-of-the-year predictions are quite commonplace amongst game industry bloggers and journalists, it's a bit rarer to see prognostications coming from game-makers and executives. GamersFirst bucks that trend with a press release outlining its forecast for online gaming in 2011. Unsurprisingly, the free-to-play publisher sees its preferred business model "taking over the video game market," as well as a massive shift to mobile gaming and digital distribution. Closer to home, GamersFirst senior vice president Rahul Sandil says that 2011 will be a banner year for the company that recently acquired 9Dragons and APB. "We are poised to make noteworthy contributions to the future of F2P online games. We look forward to expanding client-based and web browser F2P MMOs throughout Turkey, Europe, South and North America," he says. Check out the full list of GamersFirst industry predictions after the break.
TUAW TV Live: The end-of-year panel discussion
The holidays are still here. You're at home, stuck with the relatives for the next few days, and you'd like to do something fun. Why not join a group of TUAW bloggers for an hour of discussion and laughs? Every Wednesday afternoon I host TUAW TV Live, which (as the name implies) is a live one-hour streaming video show discussing the week's Apple news, demonstrating new software, providing the occasional giveaway and more. You can participate in the show through the Ustream chat tool that appears on the next page. Today's show is going to be a bit of a first for TUAW TV Live, as I'll be hosting a group of my fellow bloggers in a free-for-all discussion of Apple in 2010 and what we expect to see in the next year. If the gods of technology are with us today, there should be several of us chatting together over Skype. How can you join in on the fun? From your Mac or PC, go to the next page by clicking the Read More link at the bottom of this post, and you'll find a livestream viewer and a chat tool. The chat tool allows you to participate by asking questions or making comments. If you're driving somewhere and would like to watch TUAW TV Live while you're stuck in traffic, please don't -- keep your eyes on the road! However, if someone else is doing the driving, you can watch the show on your iPhone and join the chat by downloading the free Ustream Viewing Application. If you're on an iPad, you should be able to use the Skyfire Browser to watch the stream, although you will not be able to participate in the chat. We'll start at about 5 PM ET, so if you're seeing a prerecorded show, be sure to refresh your browser until you get the live stream.
Blood Sport: Season 9 arena gameplay predictions
Every week, WoW Insider brings you Blood Sport for arena enthusiasts and The Art of War(craft) for fans of battlegrounds and world PvP. Want to crush your enemies, see them driven before you and hear the lamentation of their women? C. Christian Moore, multiple rank 1 gladiator, examines the latest arena strategy, trends, compositions and more. Listening Music: Bush with Glycerine. I had a hard time picking a Bush song, so I went with a tried and true. I just got done searching for a past article I apparently never wrote. I could have sworn I predicted something about how Season 8 would pan out, but apparently, I just talked about it with my teammates instead of putting my thoughts into internet words. Oh well. I guess I get to make some fun predictions about Season 9 and then recap them later when Season 10 rolls around. That's the plan, anyway.
The cracked crystal ball -- how the TUAW blogger predictions fared
Shortly before the Back to the Mac event on Wednesday, TUAW blogger Michael Grothaus compiled a list of predictions from the rest of the blogging staff. I thought it would be fun to go through the predictions and score our ability to foresee the future, giving each correct prediction a +1 score and every wrong prediction a -1 score. I gave the bloggers a zero if they suggested something, and then followed it up with a "not likely." How well did our predictions match reality? Check out the scoring on the next page -- just click or tap "Read More" to see who the true fortune-tellers were for the Apple event.
The Daily Grind: What will MMOs be like 10 years from now?
Brain Trust, assemble! I've called you all here today to put on your prognosticating caps and cast your vision into the future -- the future of 10 years from now, that is. Consider this: It is the year 2020, and I am 44 years old, practically ready for the video games old folks home. Also consider: MMOs are still around, and we're all still playing them fervently. So we need you, the Massively Brain Trust, to tell us what these MMOs will be like. Will they be mind-controlled, like that goofy 1991 episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation in which everyone's addicted to a lame addictive frisbee game? Will these MMOs be huge, revolutionary leaps forward, or will they merely be a series of small, progressive steps to better graphics, better immersion, and larger exclamation points above NPCs' heads? Will we be playing the MMOs of today in 2020, much like how gamers still enjoy EverQuest and Ultima Online? What do you think MMOs will be like 10 years from now? We'll record the responses for posterity, and then in 2020 we'll pull them out to see who was right and who was completely ridiculous.
iPads complement primary computers, threaten secondary ones
Here's a bit of news that you might have already figured out for yourself. Your primary computer doesn't need to feel threatened by your iPad. Sure, your Mac (or PC) probably felt a little uneasy when you brought that slim, trim, shiny, and lets not forget - magical - little number into your home, but it knew, oh yes it did, that you would come crawling back sooner or later. And you did, didn't you? In fact, you came crawling back straight away because you needed your primary computer to get your iPad up and running, didn't you? As noted by Macsimum News, according to market research firm Technology Business Research (TBR), the iPad will displace many consumers' secondary computers, but not their primary ones, creating a third category for personal computing and connectivity (laptop, smartphone, and tablet). TBR's study points to Apple's success with the iPad, noting that consumers want quick, easy access to their email and the Web in a device that's more portable than a laptop while providing instant-on and more usability than a smartphone. In light of this, TBR believes the market will support all three device styles with only some ground lost by laptops to tablets. To illustrate this point, Macsimum News reports that analyst Shaw Wu of Kaufman Bros. has informed clients that the iPad is "slightly cannibalizing" the entry level MacBook, but otherwise Mac sales for the September quarter could hit a record 3.8 million. So, there's no sign of Mac sales slowing down despite the introduction of the iPad. And, for now, your primary computer can hold onto its rightful place in your digital life / family. Photo by mapgoblin. Flickr : cc
Analyst: iPad to sell 28m in 2011, impacting PC market
Both All Things D and AppleInsider report that, according to the analyst Maynard Um at UBS Investment research, the iPad is having a negative impact on the PC market. In a note to his clients, the analyst Um says, "Sales of traditional notebooks appear to be feeling pressure from the iPad, causing a scramble by vendors to launch iPad-like tablets. We believe that a majority of this impact is occurring on the lower end of PC sales as the iPad is priced close enough to this range that it becomes attractive to consumers looking to make purchases within this segment." Um goes on to say, "We are not sold that the iPad is purely cannibalizing PC sales, as the functionality of the iPad cannot yet deliver the functionality of notebook PCs. However, consumers who purchase iPads may be more willing to delay purchases and upgrades of existing PCs." As a result of this, Um points to a "conservative" projection that Apple will sell 28 million iPads in 2011, and raises his target price for AAPL stock from $340 to $350. Um also pointed out that there is no evidence to say that the iPad is cannibalizing Mac sales. However, in contrast, V3.co.uk reports that 28 million is "a bit high," according to analyst Tin Couling at analyst firm Canalyst. Canalyst predicts that Apple will have sold 12.5 million iPads by the end of this year, but shipments of the iPad will only reach 20 million in 2011 as new tablets flood the market, competing with Apple's iPad. V3.co.uk notes that Samsung's Galaxy Tab is going to be one of the first major competitors to the iPad, but analyst firm Canalyst showed concern over its £650 price tag, sighting that it could make the entry level iPad, at £429, look reasonable (we're inclined to agree with that). And still, only a few short days ago , analyst Katy Huberty from Morgan Stanley predicted that Apple is aiming to build as many as 3 million iPads a month by the end of the year. Meaning that Apple could make up to 36 million iPads next year, well above what both other analyst predict Apple will sell. Apple announced in June that iPad sales had reached three million in its first 80 days. We'll have to wait and see where it goes from there, but analysts seem to agree that Apple's iPad will likely dominate the tablet market well into 2011.
TUAWxperts: September event predictions
With the September 2010 Apple media event just days away, here's a quick team round-up of our takes on the likely product introductions. Victor Agreda: I'm betting on an iPod nano with touchscreen (because flicking is the new scrolling), and an iPod touch with a camera and retina screen. As for the "One More Thing?" How about a digital shelf in iTunes for your music for MobileMe subscribers? I'm expecting a new iTunes supporting this feature (and more) later this year. Megan Lavey: I'm with the crowd on the iPod nano and iPod touch rumors, but I think if the smaller-form nano is true then the shuffle will be quietly retired. I will go out on a limb and say that if there is no iTV/Apple TV mention this time, it'll be there in January. I think "One More Thing" will be a cloud-based subscription to iTunes, of which the seeds are already there. Erica Sadun: My money rests on a 4th generation iPod touch and a new nano. I'm expecting the touch to introduce a camera (with FaceTime), retina display, and A4 chip. I'd also like to see iTunes get updated, possibly centered around features arising from the Lala streaming music acquisition. My outlier is an iPad refresh, shipping around November with device options that leverage a newly seeded 4.2 iOS beta.
Free for All: Three games to keep an eye on
There is so much to be excited about in the MMORPG world that I am always perplexed when someone claims lack of innovation in the market. I tend to think that this comes from an inability to play more than one game, or to support more than one idea in gaming, rather than from the actual state of the market. The fact is that there is so much happening in the world of gaming, and specifically free-to-play gaming, a player should feel almost overwhelmed. I wanted to point out three games now in development (or very close to release) that I believe will do very well. Think of this as a list of predictions -- in fact I am going to have some fun with it and predict just how well these games will do. I have always enjoyed testing my gut. Concerning these three games, my gut is very, very excited. So, let's get right to the list.
Bill Gates expects the web to be the best single source of education within 5 years
Bill Gates just might be the world's most famous college dropout (sorry, Kanye), but lest you think he's changed his mind about the educational establishment, he's got a few words of reassurance for you. As the closing speaker of the Techonomy 2010 conference, Bill dished out his vision of how learning will evolve over the next few years, stating his belief that no single university will be able to match the internet when it comes to providing the learning resources a student needs. Describing traditional studies as "place-based" and inefficient, he forecasts that university education will become five times less important within five years, with online lecture sources picking up the reins of enlightening our youth. In other news, Bill's pen-based tablet PC idea is going great!
Last-minute predictions: Share your WWDC best guesses
The banners are hung by Moscone with care, in hopes that new iPhones will soon be shown there... yes, it's only a few short hours until Steve Jobs takes the stage at WWDC 2010. What will we see, and what will we hear? The revitalization of Apple TV? A ship date for iPhone OS 4? New Mac mini, new iPhone carriers, or something completely unexpected? As you bide your time checking out these delightful images of the keynote line and the conference setting (photos courtesy Glasshouse Apps and Adam Jackson), take a moment to tell us what you think will be revealed. In the comments below, make your best guess; we'll read them all (timestamped, of course, no cheating) and acknowledge the sharpest prognosticator. Also, if you happen to be at WWDC and feel like sharing your images or videos, shoot us a note or a tweet, or simply tag your Flickr images 'tuaw'; we'll track them down. %Gallery-94550%
Munster: Apple developing a search engine
The great prognosticator Gene Munster (who spends his days working as an analyst at Piper Jaffray) has another guess at Apple's future for us: a search engine. He says there's a 70% chance that Apple will create its own search engine within the next five years -- right after that HDTV that he predicted a little while back. Obviously, putting together a search engine is a big undertaking, and once again, it seems unlikely that Apple would want to put one little toe into such a crowded pool. However, Munster's got that covered; he says that, instead of building from scratch, Apple might use some of its huge pool of cash to buy an existing database like Cuil. While that seems unlikely as well, it does make a little bit of sense. If Apple and Google really are on the rocks (sit-down between Jobs and Schmidt notwithstanding), Apple is probably looking at strategies to extricate itself from Google's search grip.
Madden predicts Saints win Super Bowl XLIV
If the "Madden Curse" is the unflapping revenge exacted by the fowl spirit of the Great Turducken, its devoured body unceremoniously carved up by the bare hands of John Madden on national television those many years ago (seriously, go wikipedia that joint), then the annual "Madden NFL Super Bowl Simulation" is just ... plain math. In the latest case of crunching the numbers, Madden 10 has predicted the New Orleans Saints to be winners of this Sunday's Super Bowl XLIV over the Indianapolis Colts. It was a real nail biter, EA recalls: "with minutes left in the game the duo of Joseph Addai and Peyton Manning put the Colts back on top with a go-ahead touchdown pass. With the game hanging in the balance, Drew Brees hits David Thomas for an 11-yard touchdown and the game winning score." The final: 35-31. But more intriguing than the projected outcome of a mere sporting event is EA Sports' coveted simulation formula, which has become scary good. Not only did it correctly predict the winners of the conference championship games a few Sundays ago within a three-point margin of error, according to EA Sports, the formula accurately played out last year's Super Bowl down to the final score and individual player stats, which begs the question: What can't it predict? We'd like to put a request in to EA to simulate next week's retail showdown: BioShock 2 vs. Dante's Inferno. Place your bets now! %Gallery-84606%
