drop-rates
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Some remarks on drop rates
I'm going to keep this relatively short, because a full discussion of probability could fill several college semesters. However, there is one misconception that some WoW players have that has been bugging me lately. Let's say you read that Shattered Sun Supplies have a 10% chance to contain a Badge of Justice, and, excited, you go out and do enough dailies get 10 Shattered Sun Supplies. You open them all and find not a single Badge, or you find five badges. Do either of these outcomes mean the 10% drop rate is wrong? No! They do not! All a 10% drop rate means is that for each Supplies, there is a 10% chance that it contains a Badge. Random events have no memory, so no matter how many badges you get in the first nine Supplies, your chance to get a Badge in the tenth Supplies is still 10%. The traditional analogy is that if you flip a coin nine times and get heads each time, the chance of getting heads on the next flip is still 50%. Now it is true that you will probably get a Badge in ten Supplies if the drop rate is 10%. If you're interested in how likely it is, here's the calculation to do. The chance of not getting a Badge in one Supplies is (100% - 10%) = 90%, or 0.9. Raise that to the tenth power, for your ten independent Supplies-opening events, and you get the chance of, ten times out of ten, not getting a Badge: 0.9^10 = 0.349, about 35%. So in fact, out of ten Supplies, you will get a badge (100% - 35%) = 65% of the time, about two thirds. TL;DR version: A drop rate is a probability, not a guarantee.
Drop rates surface on 2.4 items and substances
Patch 2.4 has been upon as for almost a week now, and that's long enough for Wowhead to have collected reliable data on some of the interesting new things in the patch. Here's what I've noticed, leading off with what is (to my mind) the most interesting piece of information: Shattered Sun Supplies have a 10% chance to contain a Badge of Justice Wretched Fiends and Wretched Devourers each have a 30% chance to drop Mana Remnants for "Arm the Wards." Though this is probably reduced a bit by players who kill the Wretched without having the quest, I think 30% is close to the true drop rate (based on my own observation). I guess that's it, really; the numbers on Bash'ir Phasing Device, Nether Residue, and Sunfury Attack Plans are hopelessly diluted by old and non-quest data, so we may never know true drop rates for those. Still, I'm glad to know about that 10% chance for a Badge. It's lower than I'd thought it would be, but I can understand why they would want to make it take a while for solo-only players to earn awesome epics.For comparison, I checked WOWDB and Thottbot. WOWDB gave 9.2% for the Badge, which is similar, and 98% (!) on the Mana Remnants, which is clearly wrong. Thottbot says 9% on the Badge, and 27% on the Remnants.
Insider Trader: Guide to farming cloth
Cloth is like the gathering profession for everyone. You don't have to pay to pick it up, and there are no skills to level. Because of the sheer number of tailors, the amount of cloth tailoring eats up (not to mention first aid), cloth gathering can be a lucrative pass-time. Failing that, it can provide for your own cloth needs without having to hit the auction house. This week's Insider Trader will be going in-depth into the world of farming for cloth, and tackling the following issues: The best areas to farm the cloth you need. How to alleviate some of the boredom. Ways to make the most out of your farming stints. We will also be covering cloth that can be obtained by even level ones, and not just level 70s, as well as information about what it is used for, and who is going to want it. Linen cloth. (lvl 1-15) Wool cloth. (lvl 14-30) Silk cloth. (lvl 28-40) Mageweave cloth. (lvl 38-50) Runecloth. (lvl 50-62) Netherweave cloth. (lvl 58-70+) Felcloth. (lvl 50-60). Whether your career hinges on stacks of cloth or you're looking to finance your other exploits, you won't want to miss this week's guide.
Forum post of the day: Really bad quests
Most of us have at least a couple of alt projects that we're working on. Once you've leveled to seventy you get a feeling for which quests are a breeze and which ones are painful. Arross of Thorium brotherhood started a thread entitled Really bad quests where players listed their least favorite quests. Some honorable mentions include: Arross of Thorium. "I have to say so far the worst quest I have ever had was Super Sticky in Un'goro Crater. The drop rate isn't bad, it's horrible." Shrosarias of Burning Blade, "Any quests having to do with murloc. Murlocs = evil." Ashcroft of Smolderthorn, "Zeth'Gor Must Burn! had me tearing my hair out by the roots. It was so very demoralizing to go from BG-topper to single-quest-dyer in one fell swoop." Arteree of Rivendare, "Almost every quest in Westfall." Etamalgren, "imo, any escort quests are the worst quests overall, except for the skettis daily and the nagrand escort."
Turbine apologizes for downtime with gifts
We reported yesterday that Turbine's login servers for The Lord of the Rings Online, Dungeons & Dragons Online, and Asheron's Call were down all day. They've since come back online, and Turbine has apologized to the subscribers to those games by giving them some small gifts.Players of all three games will have their subscriptions extended by one day, essentially making yesterday free. Additionally, players will receive in-game items. DDO players will each receive one Candy Cane with 30 charges of Moderate Heal. LotRO players will receive five Hope-boosting Scented Candles. And AC players will get increased drop rates (that's the superior gift, we think).Listen, Turbine; you can't buy our love!Wait, increased drop rates? Okay, never mind, maybe you can.
The Truth About Drop Rates
If you've ever participated in a raid, you've heard countless theories about what rules over loot drops. Perhaps the drops are decided by the class of the first player who enters the instance? Or the raid leader? Well, every time such rumors are posted around the forums, Blizzard denies that there's any system to it, saying that loot drops are completely random. Kylindra of Cenarion Circle server has put together a good write-up on drop rates and explains that "random" drops and fair drops aren't always the same thing.
