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Pachter: Nintendo is like McDonald's
The man with his own Joystiq tag, Michael Pachter, is at it again, this time talking about Nintendo and the Wii. In likening Nintendo's success with the Wii to that of McDonald's success in slowly killing you, Pachter says a lot of what worked for the food chain is working for Nintendo right now. Does that make Mario a Big Mac? "They buy the Wii games that they buy for the same reason that people go to McDonald's," Pachter said on consumers. Further elaborating on his comparison of the two companies, he said, "McDonald's doesn't win a lot of restaurant critic awards but they are approachable, they're consistent, and you know what they're going to serve you." He says that if the "concept is right," the "recognition factor" is there, and if "you can 'get it' from what's on the box," then "sometimes the game doesn't even have to be that good in order for it to sell." He must have skipped lunch today, because Pachter also brought Nintendo's competition into the food comparison mix, saying, "Nintendo has become the fast food machine. Sony is very much the high-end restaurant. And Microsoft is somewhere in between." So, basically, the Wii is like a #4 on the value menu, the Xbox 360 is like lunch at Applebee's, and the PS3 is like getting a reservation at Dorcia on a Friday night. Got it.
Pachter: Riccitiello is the right man to save EA
With all of the bombshells EA dropped last night, some might be questioning whether John Riccitiello is the right man to guide EA into a profitable future. Video game analyst Michael Pachter isn't one of those, however. Pachter thinks that's the kind of person that needs to be in charge at EA and describes Riccitiello as "a bright guy with a ton of experience" and being "sufficiently conscientious to lead the company." It wasn't all sunshine and lollipops from Pachter's end, however, as he criticizes Riccitiello's past strategies for EA and his "desire to balance between future growth and current success." The past strategies Pachter refers to are likely the company's gamble on new IPs, Mirror's Edge and Dead Space. As for us, we like the more gutsy EA. But we also want Mass Effect 2 ...
Pachter predicts PS3 price drop to $299 in April
We were so hopeful that PS3 would get a price drop this year. But no. Michael Pachter, analyst at Wedbush Morgan, had to "predict" a PS3 drop in April. Drats, we were looking forward to this one too. Unfortunately, with Pachter's track record, it's pretty good to bet that he'll be wrong."Once the PS3 is at a more affordable price point (we expect a cut to $299 in April), we think that sales of that device will once again begin to grow," he states. However, don't expect Microsoft to take that sitting down. "We expect another cut in price for the Xbox 360, with the feature-laden Pro model likely to come down in price to $249 at or before this year's E3 show in June." Nintendo, however, has no reason to lower its price and will unlikely drop the price of the bestselling Wii.Pachter is right once in a while, so we're optimistic that a price drop will happen. Perhaps it won't be as significant as $100 off, or perhaps it won't happen in April. It'll be interesting to see what Sony chooses in '09: their bottom line, or making a more aggressive attack in the console wars.
Pachter talks Wii supply, forecasts August earnings
We all know Michael Pachter has no problem tossing his two pennies around, and his estimations for the month of August might surprise some of you. When it comes to sales, the Wedbush Morgan analyst sees Nintendo making around $100 million on software. As for hardware, it's a different story, as a decline is expected."Because the U.S. has received only around 1/3 of total Wii production to-date, instead of a more normal 40 percent, there has been a severe shortage of Wii supply here that has yet to let up," says Pachter. He thinks that the supposed production increase won't take effect in North America until September.See also: GameStop CEO sees no 'end in sight' for Wii shortages
Pachter raises year-end software sales expectation
Michael Pachter, analyst extraordinaire at Wedbush Morgan, recently shaved his Predict-o-Matic Monkey® as punishment for inaccurately guessing the industry's software sales growth this year. Turns out that instead of a mere 19% jump in US sales for 2008, the monkey's dart should have hit the index card marked with "32%" against the wall. Pachter also tweaked his numbers for Europe, increasing the expectation from 20% to 40% growth. Wedbush Morgan now has a combined expectation of software sales growth in Europe and the US of 36% over 2007's record-breaking figures. Pachter is currently reviewing Predict-o-Matic's return policy.
Pachter: Nintendo financial earnings greater than expected
Michael Pachter is of the mind that Nintendo made a whole ton of money during the second quarter. Nintendo is supposed to release figures on the 30th, but that hasn't stopped Pachter and Wedbush Morgan from coming up with some figures of their own. Pachter says the company will report earnings of ¥421 billion ($3.91 billion) and raise their yearly estimate to ¥1,907 billion ($17.7 billion)."Nintendo's recent financial performance has been spectacular and we expect this to continue in FY:09," Pachter commented, going on further to state that "Nintendo's Wii and DS appear to be selling even better in FY:09 than in FY:08, and we believe the momentum will last through the end of FY:09." This is likely due to some smart advertising campaigns, which had female celebs showing off how awesome the handheld is. Plus, you know, the handheld has tons of amazing games.
Pachter expects 2008 to be 'significantly better' for Midway
In the wake of yesterday's Q1 earnings announcement from Midway, financial prognosticator Michael Pachter has come forth with his predictions for the company, stating that despite suffering considerable losses during the quarter, the analyst expects the company to perform "significantly better" over the course of year compared to 2007.According to Pachter, his firm, Wedbush Morgan, continues to advise investors to hold onto any shares of Midway stock that they may have collecting dust in their portfolios, adding belief that Midway "can generate sustainable profits if it can deliver revenues above the $300 million annual level." While possible, Pachter himself lowered his 2008 revenue estimates for the company to $265 million from $300 million based on what he called Midway's "weak first half results," as well as lowered his expectations for 2009. The analyst noted belief that Midway hit rock bottom "quite a while ago," and thus it seems like there is nowhere to go but up. We're just not sure that you can get to the top by clinging to Batman's cape.[Via press release]
Pachter foresees Wii coup in 2008
2007 was the year of the Wii. So, which console's cuisine will reign supreme in 2008? According to super-analyst Michael Pachter, that would be the PS3.In the latest issue of EGM, Pachter predicts that the Wii will fall to the PS3 this year. The thing that will bring about this fall is not software (well, that too), but price. That's right, Pachter predicts that the price will soon be right for the PS3. The Wedbush Morgan analyst stated, "I think the Wii momentum will last until the Playstation 3 is under $300, so another year."Perhaps Pachter is making too many assumptions: Will the PS3 drop to under $300? And if so, does that necessarily mean that Nintendo won't cut the price of the Wii to compete? If Nintendo doesn't price drop, will people even care (check eBay, for example)? Of course, it's his job to make assumptions, so we suppose we can't fault him for that.[Via NeoGAF]
Pachter insists Mass Effect coming to PS3
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter is all but certain the Mass Effect trilogy is going multiplatform. In the latest episode of GameTrailers' Bonus Round (start about three-fourths of the way into the video), Pachter notes that, given the financial expectations Electronic Arts has with its recently-acquired developer, Mass Effect 2 "has to, has to" come to the PlayStation 3 in addition to the Xbox 360.More interesting is what Pachter says after his ME2 assertion. "I wouldn't be shocked if Mass Effect One came to the PS3," he said. We aren't sure the exact details of EA's acquisition, but we do know the original Mass Effect was published by Microsoft Games Studio, leading us to assume it was a safely exclusive title. Could EA port and publish the game on Sony's console? We doubt Microsoft would be willing to let that platinum-selling title go without a fight.
Want a Wii? Wait until April.
It's been more then a year since launch, and demand is still heavily outweighing supply for the Wii. According to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, the two won't manage find balance in the U.S. until April. That means that people won't be able to walk into a store and find a healthy supply of Wiis for another four months. Pachter also estimates that the Wii will sell 1.7 million units this December, beating out the Xbox 360 and PS3 despite its limited supply.Need we really bring up the printing money meme again?
Pachter: PlayStation 3 will win next-gen war because of Blu-Ray
The most recent Wedbush Morgan report has been released and in it, Michael Pachter states that he believes that Blu-Ray may actually be the deciding factor in the console wars. At the end of the PS3/Wii/360 generation, he expects Sony to 'win' with a 36% market share, largely due to the strong movie industry support of Blu-Ray.Interestingly though, he also states that this console cycle will essentially be "a dead heat, and each manufacturer will have sufficient market share to generate significant profits." This is great news for videogame fans everywhere, since an evenly divided market will mean that each of the consoles will have a chance to grow and mature as they age. This may be PS3 Fanboy, but I really don't want any of the current consoles to pull a Dreamcast.
Sony will never catch up, but that doesn't matter
Chris Kohler's Game | Life blog has a great Q&A session with Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter. When the analyst was asked about the widening gap between DS and PSP, he had this to say: "I don't think Sony will close the gap, and don't think it is important that they do so. Nintendo has over 20 million loyal GBA owners, and we should expect them to dominate the category that they invented. Sony is late to the handheld game, has tried to approach the market from an older demographic, and is just now trying to beef up more kid-friendly content to appeal to 13-17 year olds. I don't think that the gap matters at all, so long as Sony makes money. I also believe that price elasticity of demand dictates that the lower priced product will sell more units. That's why there are more Fords than Maseratis."While Sony will most likely never be number one this generation, they've gone a long way in changing the handheld marketplace. As long as people continue to buy the system and continue to buy the games, the platform will remain more than viable.[Via AMN]
Wedbush Morgan predicts Wii launch lineup and sales
Wedbush Morgan recently released its list of anticipated launch titles and sales figures for both the PS3 and Wii. The sales figures they present are very selective and they do not predict figures for every title, but we take what we can get. Their entire proposed lineup and sales figures, which we must say is not a confirmed list by Nintendo in any shape or form, is included after the break.
Analyst becomes less bullish for Sony
Wedbush Morgan is one of those places where people sit around in a dark room, pondering the future. They make up numbers that predict future sales, shoot lightning out their hands, and they have three heads. Michael Pachter is one of those men. While he was optimistic for Sony's handheld at the beginning of the year, he seems to be reconsidering his position: "We are lowering ... our forecast for PSP sales from 8.5 million to 7.4 million, and increasing our expectation for DS sales from 6.5 million to 8 million."This isn't really too bad: even if PSP isn't number one in sales, it still has done much better than any non-Nintendo gaming handheld in the past. Regardless, the analyst had tons of good things to say about Nintendo, and not so much about Sony: he decreased his 2006 PS3 hardware sales estimate by 1 million units (to 3 million) and increased his 2006 Wii hardware sales by 500,000 to (4 million). Of course, it's not just the analyst that sees good things for Nintendo: the shareholders do as well.[News via Gamespot][Sales chart for US. DS has a few weeks extra data due to an earlier launch. Via VG Charts]
GTA:LCS PS2 coming 6/6/06 for $20
Just as we reported, Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories for the PS2 has been delayed. Apparently the game will debut on June 6th at a RRP of US$19.99/€29.99/£19.99. The game was originally scheduled to be released on April 24th at $29.99.On the surface the reduced price looks like an attempt to appease impatient gamers. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter thinks that it goes deeper than that: "we believe that the lower than expected price point for GTA LCS implies that the game is a straight port from the PSP, with few (if any) enhancements to graphics or game play" and that "although we believe that the game will sell a greater number of units at a higher [sic] (we think he meant lower) price point, we think that overall sales may suffer if the game is not sufficiently different from the PSP version." As it is, Wedbush Morgan thinks that Take Two could sell "3 million units at $16 (for total revenues of $48 million) instead of 1.9 million at $28 in our model (total revenues of $53 million)", which mean the delay might cost Take Two $5 million. Ouch.Of course, there's still the possibility that Morgan is underestimating the game's sale figures: they predicted that T2 would sell 900,000 copies of Elder Scrolls in the time immediately after its release, when in fact Take Two recently announced that they've sold 1.7 million units.
