console war
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Are we winning the war?
These days, it seems like the answer is a resounding yes, we are winning thus far in the console war. According to the Toronto Star, analysts are certain of it, and we know how reliable those analysts are! It's still news whenever any retailer gets a shipment, and people are still plotting, shifty-eyed, their shopping strategies. And it's not just because of a low number of consoles in circulation; we haven't seen a deluge of fresh PS3s roll off the factory belts, and yet they sometimes languish in stores for a day or two before someone takes them home. To make matters worse, we've all heard about the PS3s that get returned because the buyer only wanted to resell it, but couldn't. But let's not count our chickens just yet. We're still in launch times, and it's a bit early to be calling the race. But expect to see a lot of articles like the one in the Toronto Star, articles filled with heart-warming Wii stories and sad Sony fans trying to rally their cause. It's okay to feel a momentary glimmer of pride -- that's our baby, out there in the trenches! -- but let's see how things shape up over the next six months.[Image via Aeropause]
Designer: Xbox 360 may take third-place
In his Designer's Notebook column, Ernest Adams compares the ways developers approach game design between the Wii and PS3. While well-argued, his analysis breaks down to input innovation (read: Wii) versus output innovation (read: PS3) that many writers have already considered. But in addition to that background, Adams tackles the question about how many -- and which -- consoles can succeed simultaneously. His tentative prediction: Wii and PS3 over the Xbox 360.Adams thinks that the videogame market can support two consoles fighting for first place in addition to a distant third-place console. Nintendo has filled the third-place role since the N64, but because of the buzz and potential of the Nintendo's latest, Adams thinks that the Wii and the PS3 will lead the market. Why the snub for the Xbox 360? Its early launch may have hurt it more than anything, as techies will see the PS3 as the latest hardware, and casual gamers will like the variety and price-point of the Wii.What about the games? The Microsoft lead has given its developers more time to take advantage of its hardware; the upcoming crop of Xbox 360 titles includes several standouts. Is that development time an important piece in selling hardware?
eBay hypes up game system auctions
Visitors to the eBay home page today were greeted with a bevy of quick links to auctions for next generation video game systems. EBay's list of the ten most popular items lists the Sony Playstation 3 at No. 1 with nearly 15,000 active auctions and the Xbox 360 at No. 5 with 1250 auctions. The PS3 also tops eBay's list of Top Tech Toys and ranks No. 2 on the gifts for kids list. The Wii doesn't make any of the lists, but is featured as eBay's promotional "it of the day," a position that had featured the PS3 as recently as last week.Interestingly, Atari systems rank No. 2 on the classic eBay list, proving that not everyone needs the latest and greatest this holiday season.
High attach rate equals bad news for 360?
The 360's high attach rate has been a big boasting point for Microsoft for some time now. After all, it's only natural to claim success when everyone who buys your console also buys an average of 5 games. It all sounds rosy, but according to the Susquehanna Financial Group, the 360's high attach rate may be indicative of its ultimate failure. "How the hell does that make sense?" you ask, and with good reason. The Susquehanna Financial Group believes that the high attach rate could indicate that the 360 attracts more "hardcore" gamers and fewer "casual" gamers. Again, this sounds like a good thing, because hardcore gamers buy more games. However, if the 360 isn't attracting casual gamers (who far outnumber hardcore gamers), then its overall installed base will never grow. From a publisher's perspective, it's always better to have more potential customers. As the analysts at SIG put it, "a console with an attach rate of 8 and an installed base of 50 million is superior to a console with an attach rate of 12 with an installed base of 20 [million]." In other words, attach rates are less meaningful if the installed base isn't large enough to back it up.Still, it may be a little early to declare that the 360 is the next Dreamcast, a failed machine with a dedicated following. The 360 is still young, and many people have been waiting for the Wii and PS3 to arrive before they made their decision. If anything, the new console war is only just beginning.[Via Joystiq]
Layered disc to stop next-gen format war?
Console makers and movie studios both have a lot riding on the success of the competing DVD formats, but a new patent recently filed by Warner Bros. engineers may help calm the battle. The patent details the creation of a disc that holds HD-DVD, Blu-ray and standard DVD data on the same disc by using three different layers of information. The discs would cost more to produce, but the cost might be worth it if movie consumers could be sure that the disc will work on whatever HD player they may end up with.Could the technology lead to layered game discs that work in all three next-gen systems? Unlikely, since getting all the various publishers and console makers to agree on packaging and technical details would likely be impossible. Also, The Wii and Xbox 360 versions of a game would have to share room on the standard DVD layer, which might be a tight squeeze for some larger games. Still, it's nice to dream...
PS3 cut in half, delay in Europe: Our take
Covering PS3 news is anathema to some of our readers, but we must comment on Sony's surprise announcements today. In case you haven't heard, Sony set us up the bomb today that they will ship a worldwide total of 500,000 PS3s at launch, and only in the US and Japan at that. Given these numbers, Sony also readjusted their end of the year sales estimate to 2 million units (down from 4 million). Even more perplexing, Japan will only see 100,000 of the first shipment. Even more perplexing than that, Europe will see a grand total of zero (zed) PS3 units at launch. Which of course means that the PS3 won't actually be launching at all in Europe, at least, not this year. Our sad crumpet munching friends will have to wait until March of 2007 to snag a PS3. At least you have Dead Rising now. What, if anything, does this mean for the 360? Read on for our take.
Publisher predicts Wii to double GC sales
Japanese publishing company Enterbrain has tossed their hat into the analyst ring with a new set of longterm predictions on the outcome of the console war in Japan. President Hirokazu Hamamura predicts that the Wii will sell for about 20,000 yen and $170 in the U.S., and that over the next five years, the Wii will move 10 million units in Japan. This far outstrips the 4 million GameCubes the article lists as having sold in Japan so far. Hamamura also puts the PS3 at similar numbers, predicting a draw between Sony and Nintendo in systems sold over the next five years. The Xbox 360, they said, doesn't really have a chance for success in Japan. Ouch. These predictions are far different from those made for the U.S., which reflects the vast difference in market -- at least so far as Japanese underdog Microsoft is concerned.
Community: key to the console wars?
There is an interesting editorial up at the N-Sider which takes the position that the winner of the console war won't be the system with the best graphics, the most third party developers, or the most innovation. No, says Glen Bayer, the key to next-gen will be community. He points to the popularity of MySpace and YouTube as the basis for his position. Bayer said, "...people yearn to feel as though they're part of a community ... with services such as Xbox Live and WiiConnect24, we can finally facilitate this community. The idea is to let players share their user-created maps, user-created items, and even user-created games."If nothing else, it's a fresh take on the situation. Considering how much time we gamers tend to spend on forums and online communities, Bayer may be right. But the stalkeriffic tracking tools on Xbox Live seem less geared toward community than they are toward showing off, and the community aspects -- media sharing and more -- seem underused, which could mean Bayer is wrong. Do you think Bayer's editorial hits the nail on its proverbial head, and if so, how do you think Nintendo's WiiConnect24 will fare?
