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iPad mini rumors resurface like so many leftovers, have production start in September
There have been rumors of a shrunken iPad since time immemorial, so you'll have to forgive us if we look at most fresh claims with a jaded eye. Still, when both Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal hear that Apple is close to producing a tablet with an 8-inch or smaller screen, there might be some fire to go with the smoke. What details that exist are unsurprisingly thin outside of the dimensions, although Bloomberg understands that there won't be a Retina display like in the current 9.7-inch slab. That's not a shock given the size and likely cost concerns -- we're more interested in the talk of nearing production plans with an uncanny level of synchronicity. The Wall Street Journal has caught murmurs that volume production ramps up in September, while its business paper rival Bloomberg thinks that an announcement could come "by October." We still won't be shocked if these are just wild misinterpretations of an upsized iPod touch or become nothing but vapor. Should they pan out, however, our good friend the Nexus 7 could feel some heat this fall.
Rumor Roundup, Episode 5: New MacBook Pros steal the spotlight
A truly titanic hash of dumb Apple rumors permeated the blogosphere this week, including the usual suspects of the "iPad mini" and the Apple HDTV. But mixed with the mire were multiple reports from actual, reputable news organizations like the Wall Street Journal and Reuters regarding the next generation of MacBook Pros. Unfortunately those same usually reputable organizations also fell into the trap of drawing their information from the most notoriously unreliable of sources when discussing the next-gen iPhone, so it's hard to know what to believe. It can be difficult to separate the plausible stories from the B.S. even during the slowest weeks. This past week was not a slow week, with an explosion of at least 20 rumors wafting across the Internet and stinking up the place. Fortunately, there are some telltale signs to separate the rumors worth paying attention to from the ones that are only good for laughs. How do you know, with almost 100 percent certainty, not to take a rumor seriously? 1. Source is an Asian newspaper or "sources in the Asian supply chain" These so-called "sources" are about as reliable as a guy in a trenchcoat trying to sell you wholesale donor organs from a back alley. "I take lungs now, you get gills next week." Since hardly anyone from Cupertino has loose lips these days, a high percentage of rumors get sourced from Asia instead, where some guy who knows a guy who overheard another guy in a cafe says the next iPhone might be gold plated, or it might hunt down and devour your parakeet. Or both. We've got plenty of examples from this week alone. 'Huge' orders for Samsung's flexible OLEDs spark rumors of Apple interest (AppleInsider) Korea Times says the "iPhone Yoga" (not kidding) could have an OLED display. In spite of the fact that Apple has shown zero interest in including this technology in its products. 9to5 Mac, now (rather ironically) trying to rebrand itself as an anti-rumor watchdog, takes pain to pour water on this theory. Rumor: LCD suppliers for 7.85-inch iPad Mini certified with production ready to ramp up (9to5 Mac) Taiwan-based Liberty Times says production of LCD displays for the long-rumored but never seen "iPad mini" is ramping up. The target shipping for this completely imaginary device is supposedly 6 million units. Which is totally coming this year guys. Promise. Even though it failed to surface in 2010 or 2011, 2012 will be the year of the iPad mini! Unless it launches in 2013. Or 20-never. [Note: The sources I've spoken to seem very confident that we'll see a smaller, cheaper iPad this year. We'll see. - Ed.] Apple readies iPhone with bigger screen: sources (Reuters) Oh boy, if Reuters says it, it's a done deal. Right?! Well, maybe it would be, if the organization had better sources than "people familiar with the situation" and "suppliers in Japan and South Korea." But wait! The Wall Street Journal said the same thing! NEW IPHONE RUMOR L@@K!!! Apple Moves Toward Larger iPhone Screens (WSJ) That alleged bastion of "real" news, the Wall Street Journal, says the same thing as Reuters: the next iPhone will have a bigger, 4-inch screen to counter the complete non-threat that Samsung's gargantuan "phablets" represent to Apple's never-ending money stream. So if both the Journal and Reuters are saying the same thing, it must be true, right? Because this 3.5-inch screen is totally holding me back, man. Small problem: Reuters and the Journal are essentially drawing from the same sources. "People familiar with the situation" and suppliers in East Asia. Bloomberg jumped on the bandwagon too, citing three "people with knowledge of the plans." The fact that three big names in business news are reporting the next iPhone will have a 4-inch screen can mean only two things: either the iPhone actually will have a bigger screen, or these big news outlets are simply getting hosed by bad sources... just like they did last year. Of course, simply because these three outlets are big names in the news scene, they get trusted more than others. Even TUAW itself fell for the WSJ's charms on this 4-inch iPhone foofaraw, to which I can only say, "What are you guys paying me for if not to jump on grenades as stupid as this one?" Rumor: Apple in talks to build Russian R&D facility (AppleInsider) Yet another sketchily-sourced story from Russian news outlet Izvestia claimed Apple and several other household-name tech companies were looking to build R&D facilities in Russia. No less than 24 hours after this "story" broke, it was revealed this was a mistranslation, and nobody from Silicon Valley was buying those cool fur hats or stocking up on vodka after all. Collective B.S. detector reading: 9/10. As soon as you find out a story comes from "sources in the Asian supply chain," flip a coin. If it comes up heads, the story is complete nonsense, and you can go about your business. If it comes up tails, the story is still complete nonsense, but this time you have to drink margaritas until you believe it with all your heart. Sources in the Mexican supply chain tell me tequila stocks are running dangerously low because Reuters and the Wall Street Journal's coin tosses both came up tails. 2. Source is DigiTimes I went over this last week, as did Harry McCracken of Time Techland: DigiTimes is as reliable as a Bulgarian subcompact automobile powered entirely by Old English malt liquor. Which is to say, not very reliable at all. In fact, DigiTimes' record is worse than you'd expect to see from random chance. Seriously, I bet I can source more accurate Apple rumors from a Kalahari bushman who's never even heard of an iPhone. Despite that, some "news" outlets still source information from DigiTimes. Please join me in the shaming and shunning. 'iPad mini' to be ultra-thin thanks to new touch technology (BGR) Nonexistent product, ill-defined "new technology," and DigiTimes as the source. The instant I saw the word "DigiTimes" in this story, I wanted to find BGR's server room and set it on fire. Suppliers gearing up for launch of Apple's new MacBooks in June - report (AppleInsider) See, I even kind of believe that the MacBook Pro will get a long-awaited refresh around WWDC, though it might be more because I want to believe because I want a new Mac. But because DigiTimes is telling me exactly what I want to hear, now I have to consign it to the same rubbish bin as all those letters I used to get from Publisher's Clearing House saying I may already be a millionaire. Collective B.S. detector reading: Infinity. Any Apple "news" site that still cites DigiTimes should add at least four paragraphs of disclaimers about how the site has only been right three times in three years. DigiTimes is now doing measurable, real damage to companies other than Apple. Samsung's market value plummeted by almost $10 billion on news that Apple was planning on sourcing components from another supplier. The source for this "report" was DigiTimes. Apparently Samsung's investors haven't learned what the rest of us already know: DigiTimes is more full of crap than the New York City sewer system. 3. Source is an "analyst" I'm kind of curious how one finds employment as an analyst. They seem to do essentially the same job as novelists, but they get paid more and do less research. They also don't seem to fall under the umbrella of the James Frey Effect; when readers find out a novelist fabricated events he claimed to be true, they grab pitchforks and torches. When analysts make up whatever nonsensical B.S. popped into their head after the three-martini breakfast ended, nothing at all happens to them when their predictions inevitably fail to come true. Check these guys out, for instance. iPhone orders 'significantly' reduced as Apple begins prepping for next-gen model (AppleInsider) "Analyst" Shaw Wu says his checks with the Asian supply chain suggest Apple has pared back its orders for the iPhone 4S in anticipation of reduced demand in the quarter preceding the next-gen iPhone's debut. This rumor is a two-for-one: an analyst sourced his story from the Asian supply chain, which means you'll find about as much truth in this rumor as in your cousin's story of that one time he totally saw Sasquatch. Analyst expects MacBook refresh by June, next-gen iPhone by October (AppleInsider) Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, once upon a time worthy of his own TUAW meme, has steadily lost credibility over the past couple years with his repeated tilting at the windmill of the still-unrealized Apple HDTV. Munster expects refreshes to the MacBook line in June and an iPhone refresh in October. Both of those ideas made perfect sense -- at least until I found out that Gene Munster had the same idea. Now I'm thinking the odds of either update happening dropped significantly just because Munster said they would. Collective B.S. detector reading: 6/10. No matter how seemingly reasonable the claim, any time a story has an "analyst" at its heart it's automatically worthy of nothing more than derision. Over the past several years, analysts have proven only two things: they have no idea how Apple actually works, and their supposed "inside knowledge" of what Apple will do next is worse than worthless. They can't even present a unified front on some topics, such as... Analysts back away from Apple's 'iTV' (BGR) A truly rare breed of analyst in possession of a triple-digit IQ restated what others (including me) have been saying for years: Apple probably won't make much (if any) money off an HDTV, which significantly reduces the chances the company will sell one. Many analysts noted that content providers aren't likely to play nice if Apple introduces its own TV set, and at least one echoed a sentiment I've said several times: HDTVs are big, bulky, and not particularly profitable compared to tiny profit piles like iPhones and iPads. If Apple builds an HDTV, I'll buy one. I'm practically required to at this point. But my disbelief in this product actually existing is so profound that I essentially won't fully buy into its existence until it's actually sitting on top of my entertainment center and blasting 2001: A Space Odyssey into my living room. 4. Headline makes bold assertion, article has no reputable source Declarative sentences in headlines regarding Apple rumors are pretty amusing. Here are some examples. Here's How The New Apple TV Will Work With The iPad (Business Insider) New MacBook Pros will get Samsung's fast 830 series SSD too (9to5 Mac) What a Tall 'iPhone 5' with 4-Inch Display Looks Like (MacRumors) In all three cases we have a bold assertion in the headline with only scant evidence in the actual article. Business Insider claims the Apple HDTV will have an interface similar to TiVo, which is hilarious by itself, but it also says each "major channel" will have its own app. Its source: "an industry source who has spoken with someone who used Apple's TV remote control software on the iPad." In other words, "a guy who knows a guy." 9to5 Mac deduces the next MacBook Pros will have fast SSDs sourced from Samsung, but doesn't offer a shred of evidence in favor of that assertion. I guess we're supposed to just take the site's word for it. MacRumors apparently didn't learn its lesson last year when its expensive-looking Photoshop mockups wound up looking nothing like the iPhone 4S, so the site commissioned yet another set of mockups to show what a 4-inch "iPhone 5" might look like. If you fell into a coma around this time last year, please be assured that a full year has actually passed. You wouldn't know it by the current spate of endlessly repeated rumors like this one, but this is actually the middle of 2012 and not 2011. Collective B.S. detector reading: 10/10. You need better evidence for claims like these than "because we said so" or "we know a guy." The biggest happenstance in the rumor scene this week was the explosion of "details" regarding the next MacBook Pro. As usual, 9to5 Mac is on the scene to claim credit for "confirmation" of months worth of rumors about the upcoming refresh. The rumors all say these next MacBook Pros will be moderately thinner, ditching the internal optical drive in the process, and the next Macs will all feature so-called "Retina Displays" featuring double the resolution of current Macs. In other words, the exact same rumors we've been hearing since late last year. Nothing new, and nothing particularly implausible. B.S. detector reading: A surprisingly low 2/10. Nothing that's been said about these MacBook Pro updates seems particularly outlandish. Apple usually doesn't jealously guard its Mac-related secrets with the same fervour it reserves for the iPhone and iPad, so as long as a rumor isn't sourced from the Asian supply chain, DigiTimes, an "analyst," or some blogger's fever dreams, it's got a halfway decent chance of being true. In this case, I hope it's true. My current Mac is getting a bit long in the tooth. By this time next week, I may well be incarcerated for arson, because the next time I see DigiTimes cited as a reputable source I'm likely to commit some serious acts of pyrotechnic vandalism.* Just in case that doesn't happen, I'll be back again next Monday to throw ice-cold water on the rumor scene once again. *Just kidding, FBI. Please do not fly to New Zealand and arrest me. The weather is too cold for handcuffs right now.
Rumor Roundup, Episode 4: 'Sometimes reliable' DigiTimes (Updated)
See Editor's Note at the bottom of this post. This past week saw appearances from all the usual suspects populating the Apple rumor mill: So-called "analysts" claiming to be able to predict Apple's fortunes a full three years in the future. Booming proclamations from sites claiming to have inside info on unreleased (and probably nonexistent) products. And everyone's favorite source of utterly inaccurate Apple "news": the Asian newspaper DigiTimes. Much more on them later. Apple stock seen hitting $2,000 by the end of 2015 (AppleInsider) Some analyst throws a dart at a wall full of numbers and claims Apple's stock price will nearly quadruple in three and a half years. B.S. detector reading: 10/10. Forecasting the fortunes of a company like Apple more than 40 months into the future is a fool's game, whether you're predicting unprecedented growth or unparalleled DOOOOOOOM. And besides, prevailing "wisdom" among all the other analysts says Apple will be out of business by the end of 2013 anyway, right? Because Apple's "free ride" is over, and either Microsoft or Google is going to take back the keys to the tech kingdom for reasons never adequately, logically, or even sanely explained? GOOGLE AIN'T PLAYING: Will Clone A Key iPhone Feature (Business Insider) GOOGLE'S GOING TO COPY IOS GAME CENTER, at least according to Business Insider. The feature would improve the gaming experience for all seven games available on the Android platform. B.S. detector reading: 3/10. And the only reason it's even that high is because this is coming from Business Insider. From any other source, this would merit a 0/10 reading, because honestly, anyone who points to a feature in iOS and says "Google will copy that" is going to be right eventually, assuming Samsung doesn't beat them to it. (Cue the Android loyalists grousing about Notification Center in iOS 5 "ripping off" the notifications in Google's mobile OS.) Our Source Has Seen The Apple HDTV, Here's What It Looks Like (Cult of Mac) "Sources" claim to have seen the HDTV of myths and legends in person, then go on to parrot every single rumor we've heard about the device over the past year, bringing essentially nothing new to the table. But hey, Cult of Mac has some Photoshopped mockups to go with it, so it must be true! B.S. detector reading: 8/10. Even if Apple is making an HDTV -- something that is a matter of ongoing discussion amongst the TUAW team, but that I personally rate as only slightly more likely than the Earth spontaneously exploding when I type the end of this sentence -- the handful of Apple employees who actually would have seen a prototype aren't all that likely to be leaking those impressions to their blogger buddies. Maybe someone saw something that looked like a new Cinema Display... and maybe what they saw actually was a new Cinema Display. Foxconn plans renewed shift into distribution (China Daily) At the end of a yawn-inducing article about Foxconn's business plans, included almost as an afterthought, are three brief paragraphs claiming Foxconn's chief spilled the beans on the supposedly forthcoming Apple HDTV. He allegedly confirmed that Foxconn is preparing to build the as-yet still mythical device. B.S. detector reading: 10/10. Yeah, I'm sure that a company that's already on thin ice with Apple is going to go blabbing to the public about unreleased and unannounced products. That's exactly how you retain a business relationship with a company possessed of a legendary obsession with secrecy. Why not risk losing a manufacturing contract worth billions of dollars in order to give a BREAKING EXCLUSIVE RUMOR to China Daily. Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt does a good job of dissecting this one, calling it a "soufflé" of a story -- meaning you kick it once or twice and it collapses in on itself. Apple rumored to be in talks to acquire German HDTV maker Loewe (AppleInsider) "Sources" claimed Apple was going to buy a German TV company. Only one thing that could mean, right? Right?! B.S. detector reading: 9/10. Loewe itself said there was "absolutely nothing to" the rumor. Looks like AppleInsider got punk'd. You had to figure something like this would happen once Ashton Kutcher started dressing up like Steve Jobs. Extra credit to you-can't-spell-B.S.-without Business Insider, which managed to wring three or four items out of the Loewe buyout rumor before it was denied and demolished. Unreleased 2012 MacBook Pro and iMac Models Showing Up in Benchmarks (MacRumors) For a change of pace, MacRumors sources from somewhere other than DigiTimes. This time, benchmarks popping up on Geekbench show numbers coming in from unreleased, presumably forthcoming MacBook Pros and iMacs. MR also points this morning to a 9to5Mac story citing Retina displays, USB 3.0, no Ethernet port and a sleeker but not quite Air-esque design for the anticipated pro laptop refresh. Among the presented evidence are strings referencing USB 3 in the recent 10.7.4 update and in betas of 10.8 Mountain Lion; the inclusion of USB 3 (which is natively supported in Intel's Ivy Bridge architecture) means that an external Ethernet dongle could support gigabit speeds rather than the 100 mbit limit of the current MacBook Air Ethernet adapter. B.S. detector reading: 3/10 on average. These kind of "leaks" have happened before, and not just with Macs; unreleased iPhones and iPads have popped up on Geekbench before, too. While MacRumors itself notes these results are easy to fake, they're also consistent with the performance gains expected from Intel's Ivy Bridge architecture. The 9to5 report includes a lot of speculation around the industrial design of the next laptop line, but most of the onboard features mentioned are of a piece with the direction Apple has been heading with the Pro line. Reported AppleCare training points to June Mountain Lion launch (AppleInsider) "Unnamed sources familiar with the matter" claim AppleCare's Europe, Middle East, and Africa division is hiring and training new people. Somehow, for some reason, that apparently means the next version of OS X will launch in June. B.S. detector reading: 8/10. Even assuming the source is correct and AppleCare EMEA is hiring new people, that could mean just about anything. And no reputable source I know of has pointed to a Mountain Lion launch any earlier than July, probably even later than that. iPhone 5 design still not finalized, still no big screen, still no metal back, still on track for October release (iMore) iMore contradicts every other site out there by saying pretty much every rumor about the iPhone is complete bunk. No 4-inch screen, no metal backside, no booze, no women, and absolutely No Stairway. Denied. B.S. detector reading: 7/10. iMore and its sources seem to be leaning toward a theory I've had for awhile: Despite a mountain of increasingly disreputable rumors to the contrary, the next iPhone probably isn't going to look significantly different from the iPhone 4S. That having been said, even if I agree with iMore that doesn't mean I trust the site's unnamed source, particularly over the claim that the iPhone's design hasn't been finalized yet. If the device will indeed launch in October, it seems very unlikely that the hardware design is still in flux. 'iPhone 5' Headphone Jack and Earpiece Component Surfaces (MacRumors) The same source that gave us classic hits like "slightly different Home button" and "barely changed micro-SIM tray" brings us its latest chart-topping iPhone part: weirdly altered headphone jack cable. B.S. detector reading: 7/10. At this point, three different parts leaks from the same source is looking like a simplistic con to draw attention to the site's parts reselling business. This newest "leak" is a bit on the outlandish side, as the supposed new cable looks like an absolute mess next to the cable in the iPhone 4S. 7-inch iPad on track for October 2012 release, $200 to $250 price (iMore) The 7-inch iPad will supposedly launch in October, featuring a screen the same 2048 x 1536 resolution as the current iPad (3). It'll have an 8 GB capacity and start at $200 -- the same price as the current 8 GB iPod touch. B.S. detector reading: 10/10* (or 5/10 -- See note below). A product that's been rumored but never seen for almost two years, the "iPad mini" would serve no other purpose than to cannibalise the existing iPad line. Even if you assume that making a 2048 x 1536 7-inch screen is technically feasible, saying Apple could sell such a device for the current asking price of the iPod touch is downright laughable. The iPad mini already exists. It's called an iPod touch. Those who claim Apple wants to address the mid-sized market the Kindle Fire took by storm in late 2011 seem to be conveniently ignoring the fact that Kindle Fire sales went down the tubes in early 2012. As for a lower-priced option to address budget-minded consumers, that already exists too. It's called an iPad 2. Maybe you've heard of it. It's just like the new iPad, only it's $100 cheaper and its screen looks like it's been smeared with Vaseline when you put it next to the new iPad. *Editor's Note: After some consideration I'm disagreeing with Chris on this one and saying there's some chance of a 7-inch iPad. Why? The Nook/Kindle form factor has proven it has a market, and if Apple had a product in-between the touch and the iPad, it would obliterate Android in that category not unlike how the iPod soared to the top of the MP3 market. As an entry-level "halo effect" device on the cheap, such a tablet need not be called an iPad, even. - Victor Agreda, Jr. Report Claims 7-Inch iPad in August, New iPhone in September, New 10-Inch iPad by End of Year (MacRumors) DigiTimes claims blah blah blah yadda yadda. I'd tell you more, but I immediately stopped reading when I saw the word "DigiTimes." B.S. detector reading: Off-scale high due to use of DigiTimes as a source. On the subject of the 7-inch iPad itself, I remember the first time I heard of this still-fictitious device: an August 2010 "report" from iLounge, complete with Photoshop mockup of course. Let's look at the claims from that long-ago report: New iPod nano, new iPod touch, 1.7" touchscreen replacement for iPod shuffle, and a shrunken 3" touchscreen for the iPod touch. Partial credit for predicting a new iPod nano, but credit taken away for not realizing it was the same thing as the touchscreen "replacement" for the shuffle (which still lives on). Partial credit for predicting a new iPod touch, but credit taken away for the spurious shrunken screen rumor. Total points awarded: 0. A 7" iPad in late 2010 or early 2011. Nope. Didn't happen. Fifth-generation iPhone release bumped up to early 2011. Nope. Silicone-only iPhone bumpers. Nope. So, the first time we heard of the 7" iPad, it was included in a rumor blitz from iLounge where the vast majority of the rumored items never came true. In nearly two years since then, the "iPad mini" is still nowhere to be found, and most of the subsequent rumors about it have come from either from DigiTimes or "analysts" with no more clue about Apple's plans than my cat. I'm sure Apple has been technologically capable of making an iPad mini for years. All the company lacks is the poor business sense to actually release one. Rumor: Apple planning to launch $799 MacBook Air in Q3 2012 (AppleInsider) Apple plans to "aggressively combat" ultrabooks -- that special category of notebook that PC makers dreamed up specifically so they could try to copy the MacBook Air -- by, um... selling a budget-priced MacBook Air. Because as anyone who's followed Apple for the past 15 years knows, that is totally something Apple would do. (ALERT: Sarcasm approaching critical mass!) And the source of this report is, of course, "sometimes reliable DigiTimes." Those are AppleInsider's words, not mine. I've tried to find a more appropriate adjective for DigiTimes than "sometimes reliable," but so far all I've come up with is "standup philosophers DigiTimes." (Video NSFW if your boss is uncomfortable with one of the Golden Girls repeatedly saying something that rhymes with bullspit.) B.S. detector reading: Once again, off-scale high due to use of DigiTimes as a source. Apple rumor sites, it's time for an intervention. Or, at the very least, a scorecard. DigiTimes is the scourge of the Apple rumor scene. It's been funny to watch sites like MacRumors, AppleInsider, BGR, and 9to5 Mac take DigiTimes less and less seriously over the years as the site's record has gotten worse and worse. These sites still breathlessly report every last bit of information effluent that drips out of DigiTimes' rumor sewers, but the way they refer to DigiTimes has shifted over time. It started with "DigiTimes has given reliable information before," then shifted to "DigiTimes has been reliable in the past." Then it became "DigiTimes has been hit-or-miss lately," then "occasionally reliable." Now we've reached the point of "sometimes reliable DigiTimes." What's next? "Archaeologically reliable" DigiTimes? "Fossil records indicate DigiTimes provided reliable information during the Cretaceous, prior to the asteroid impact that wiped out the dinosaurs and the site's legitimacy." I decided to find out just how "reliable" DigiTimes has been. My study was thoroughly unscientific, though still performed with far more rigor than anything that's come from that site. I simply did a "site:www.macrumors.com digitimes" search on Google and went through the first 7 or 8 pages of articles I found. MacRumors posts a story pretty much every time someone at DigiTimes mutters something that vaguely sounds like "Apple," so this seemed like a good way to get some traction. I didn't rate rumors produced in the past two months -- I figure I'll give DigiTimes more time to be wrong -- so I started with rumors in early March of 2012, then worked backward. Here's a rundown of the true or at least partially true reports MacRumors has printed in the past few years with DigiTimes as a source. iPad 3 Display Supply Constraints to Result in Early Shortages? (March 2012: 100% true) Display Panel Shipment Plans Suggest Apple Will Offer iPad 2 Alongside iPad 3 (January 2012: 100% true) iPad 3 Display Shipments Nearing 3 Million Units with Assembly Set for January Start (November 2011: Mostly true, but mentions B.S. about a 7-inch iPad) Apple LTE-enabled iPhone Due in 2012, iPhone 4S Preparations for September 2011 (May 2011: Mostly true, and remarkably, one of the first sites to correctly refer to it as the iPhone 4S rather than iPhone 5) iMac and MacBook Pro Upgrades in First Half of 2011? (December 2010: 100% true, but talk about your all-time easy calls) Cortex A9-Based iPads, Verizon iPhone, iOS-Based Apple TV Set for 1Q 2011 Launch? (August 2010: 2/3 true. They got the CPU and launch date for the Apple TV wrong, and mentioned some 7-inch iPad B.S.) DigiTimes Claims Display Improvements in Next-Gen iPhone (May 2010: 100% true, but multiple sources were claiming the same thing) Next-Generation iPhone Set to Carry 5-Megapixel Camera? (December 2009: 100% true) So that's roughly 7 2/3 stories in the past few years. Not a bad record... until you look at all the things DigiTimes has said over the years that have been, as the kids in the UK say, utter bollocks. And this is far from a comprehensive list. I only made it through the first several pages of a Google search before I had to step away from my Mac and find a martini to chase the stupid away. 8 GB iPad 2 Coming Alongside 16 GB and 32 GB iPad 3 Next Week? (February 2012) Intel Delaying Mass Availability of Ivy Bridge Processors Until 'After June'? (February 2012) 'iPad 4' Headed for October Launch with iPad 3 as Interim Upgrade? (January 2012) Pegatron to Become Apple's Primary iPad Manufacturing Partner? (January 2012) Apple to Use IGZO Displays to Achieve a Thinner Lower-Power iPad 3? (December 2011) Mid-Range and High-End iPad 3 Launching at iWorld Seems Unlikely (December 2011) Thunderbolt Coming to PCs in April 2012 (December 2011) Rumors of a 7.85-Inch 'iPad Mini' Revived (Again) for Late 2012 (December 2011) Suppliers to Begin Preparing 32" and 37" Apple Television Sets in Early 2012? ((December 2011) Updated MacBook Air Line with New 15-Inch Model Coming in 1Q 2012? (November 2011) Apple Cutting Fourth Quarter iPhone Component Orders? (November 2011) Apple's 15" Ultra-Thin Notebook Due in March 2012 (November 2011) Next iPad Coming March, But "Real iPad 3" Not Until Q3 2012? (November 2011) iPhone 5 with Metal Chassis and Less Than 4" Screen? (August 2011) Apple Increasing iPhone Production with iPhone 5 Ramp-Up (August 2011: This one is especially laughable, as DigiTimes' predicted iPhone sales figures were off by more than ten million units) Apple Orders 15 Million iPhone 5s, Shipping Begins in September (July 2011) iPhone 5 to Have a Dual LED Flash? (June 2011) Apple Ramping Up New MacBook Air Production in July (June 2011: DigiTimes's claim of 8 million MacBook Air units was only off by, oh, 5 or 6 million) iPhone 5 to Use a 4-Inch Screen? (February 2011) 5.6-Inch and 7-Inch OLED iPad Models Coming in Q4 2010? (July 2010) Touch Panels for Apple Netbook Ordered? (July 2009) And one from the vaults: DigiTimes Reports PowerBook G5 and iBook G5 Contracts (January 2005) For every one report DigiTimes gets right, you get almost three more that are complete garbage. "Reliable" and "DigiTimes" are essentially antonyms at this point, and any site that still regularly relies on them as a source has absolutely no credibility. That's it for this week's rumors. Next week, we'll find out the 7-inch iPad mini was actually released long ago... it was inside our hearts all along. Editor's Note: Just as this post went live, we spotted Harry McCracken's thorough processing of DigiTimes's track record on rumors. Chris's deep dive into the past outcomes of DigiTimes reporting at the end of this post is similar by coincidence, not by design.
Rumor Roundup, Episode 1: 'iPhone 5' Home button and more nonsense
Welcome to the inaugural session of TUAW's weekly Rumor Roundup. Anyone who follows Apple-related news long enough soon discovers that an entire cottage industry of "analysts" has sprung up in the company's wake. These guys come out of nowhere claiming to have inside information on what's soon coming out of the secret underground labs beneath Cupertino -- and their predictions are almost invariably wrong. Sometimes laughably so. Over the years we've swung between reporting these rumors with a straight face, just like many other sites, or not reporting on them at all. The first road leads to embarrassment; I'll never forgive myself for taking DigiTimes seriously on anything, ever. The second road leads to dozens of emails every week from readers confused about why we haven't reported on something that's all over the other sites they read. That's what this Rumor Roundup is all about. These are the stories we might have let slip through the cracks before, simply because we considered them so packed solid with B.S. that they just weren't worth the effort. Most of the stories that show up in the Rumor Roundup still aren't good for much other than pointing at them and laughing -- and there will be lots of that sort of thing. On to the rumors. Fire up your B.S. detectors, because this past week has been chock full of the usual mythical suspects (none of which, it must be stressed, have ever come within five time zones of being confirmed to exist): the Apple HDTV, iPad mini, iPhone nano, and the super-thin Liquidmetal T-1000 iPhone Grande with 4-inch holographic Tupac screen. If you've been paying attention, these are the same nonexistent products that dominated the rumor scene for all of 2011. Here we are in mid-2012, still with no indication that any of these products exist at all. And does it strike anyone else as supremely unimaginative that most of these rumors revolve around size? A smaller iPhone -- no wait, a bigger one! And a smaller iPad! And a great big TV! Yawn. Rumors of an iPad mini swirl in China (Kotaku) I love the "swirl" reference in the headline, because it reminds me of a commode -- which is probably where this rumor came from. A Chinese site I guarantee you've never heard of claims that the long-rumored iPad mini will launch in the third quarter of this year, with prices ranging from US$249 to $299. B.S. detector reading: 9/10. "Leaks" like this from Asian sites are almost always wrong, and this one is made even more unbelievable by the fact that those prices are in the neighborhood of what Apple charges for the mid- and high-end iPod touch models. As for the iPad mini itself, we've heard so many conflicting rumors about this thing that by now the only source you should believe is Tim Cook's hands holding one onstage. Release of 'iPad mini' from Apple viewed as 'question of when, not if' (AppleInsider) This has all the hallmarks of a terrible and ultimately worthless rumor. Some analyst you've never heard of from some firm you've also never heard of makes a bold claim without a shred of evidence, and it's one he can easily back out of if it never comes true. Which it won't. B.S. detector reading: 10/10. This is a classic example of a rumor that manages to say absolutely nothing, but in the most excited tones possible. "Apple might do this! Maybe! Or it might not! I dunno, but either way I get paid, suckers." Apple job opening hints at continued 3D technology in iOS (9to5 Mac) A job posting on Apple's site could point to integration of 3D features in a future iPhone. Or not, as 9to5 Mac itself points out. B.S. detector reading: 6/10. Apple is obviously looking for someone knowledgable in 3D tech, but extrapolating what that means for future products is pretty much impossible. And can't the 3D fad just die already? Please? Apple working on new power management technology for future Macs (AppleInsider) Another story sourced from an Apple job posting. This one makes the bold claim that Apple is investigating ways of improving power management and battery life in its Macs. B.S. detector reading: 0/10. I mean, come on -- imagine the exact opposite scenario. "Apple poaches Flash Player engineers, investigates ways to make its laptops run batteries flat in five minutes." Apple plots wireless server hubs at Genius Bars for users to temporarily store, sync content for iOS device replacements (9to5 Mac) According to "sources," Apple is testing ways of mirroring iOS device backups from iCloud onto in-store servers to streamline the process of exchanging faulty devices at Genius Bars. The system reportedly won't go into wide deployment until late 2013. B.S. detector reading: 5/10. While this does sound like something Apple could plausibly want to implement, the fact that this unnamed source supposedly leaked info from within Apple's strictly guarded citadel is a red flag. So is the deployment date, which is so far off that we could easily forget all about it if this never actually happens. Apple predicted to discontinue 17-inch MacBook Pro (Mac Rumors) Some analyst says the 17-inch MacBook Pro isn't selling very well, so Apple's going to give it the axe. Of course, Apple doesn't break down its sales numbers by individual models, so this "analysis" is at best an educated guess. At worst, it's exactly like hundreds of other analyst predictions regarding Apple: completely uneducated, wild-ass speculation. B.S. detector reading: 10/10. The Apple of the past 10 years only discontinues product lines under two circumstances: when it has something better as a replacement (iPod mini --> iPod nano), or when sales are just tanking hard (Xserve). With product margins as high as those Apple gets from its Macs, sales have to get pretty freaking low before Apple stops making money on them; the Mac Pro is still hanging around even though Apple sells more iPhones in one day than the number of Mac Pros it'll sell in a year. Apple's 'iTV' to dominate high-end TV market while other vendors are in 'crisis mode' (BGR) A nonexistent product will dominate an industry Apple's shown no sign of taking seriously? Tell me more! What's your source? A consumer survey and some analysts? Never mind. Move along, nothing to see here, no matter what brand of TV it's on. B.S. detector reading: 8/10. When even 9to5 Mac is starting to disbelieve the Apple HDTV fairy tale, things aren't looking good for this perennial and worn-out rumor. Redesigned Liquidmetal iPhone may debut at WWDC in June (BGR) Another Asian source claims the next iPhone will be redesigned with a Liquidmetal case. If that rumor sounds familiar, it should, because like most of the rumors on this list, it's a re-run. B.S. detector reading: 8/10. This is a malodorous combination of a sketchy source from South Korea and a rehashed rumor that's already failed to materialize. Apple's next iPhone launch could be most important in smartphone history (BGR) An analyst who apparently has no recollection of the year 2007 claims the next iPhone launch will be the most important launch ever. His evidence? Well, he doesn't really have any. B.S. detector reading: Off scale high. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence; when you don't provide any evidence whatsoever, your credibility deserves an old-fashioned boot to the bum. And that headline might have been the most hyperbolic in smartphone headline history. Next-Generation iPhone to Use Thinner In-Cell Technology for Multi-Touch Display? (Mac Rumors) This rumor has it all. Analysts, Asian supply chains, and "occasionally-reliable Digitimes" (sic). If by "occasionally reliable" you mean "hasn't said one accurate thing since early 2011," then sure. Otherwise, the (sic) stands. B.S. detector reading: Off scale high due to inclusion of Digitimes as a source. Regardless of whether Apple is planning on using this technology or not, the perfect storm of terrible sources makes this story about as easy to swallow as Jurassic fruitcake. Entry-level 'iPhone nano' again rumored to launch this year (BGR) China Times cites unnamed sources within the Asian supply chain claiming the long-rumored so-called "iPhone nano" is in production. "No really. This time for sure. We promise." B.S. detector reading: 10/10. No one has ever come up with a credible form factor or compelling reason why Apple should bother creating this imaginary product. Also, any report citing "unnamed sources within the Asian supply chain" is about as well-sourced as me just asking my greyhound what Apple's up to. "What's that, girl? Apple's building an iPhone shuffle now? Okay, I'll run with it, but if you're wrong again, no steak for a week." More mockups make the case for a 4-inch iPhone (9to5 Mac) Reader-supplied mockups "make the case" for Apple changing the iPhone's screen size. Note that we made mockups of our own over a year ago, yet the iPhone's screen is still 3.5 inches. Odd. It's almost like one of the world's best industrial designers isn't paying attention to the Internet and is sticking with his own ideas instead. B.S. detector reading: 6/10. As we said 14 months ago, Apple may well change the size of the iPhone's display someday. But doing so comes with so many potential pitfalls and disadvantages that the company needs a more compelling reason than "Gee, if only our real-world product looked even half as terrible as all these hastily-Photoshopped mockups." Chip delays point to next-gen iPhone launch around October (Ars Technica) Ars Technica is almost always on the more credible end of the Apple news spectrum, and the site doesn't disappoint this time. Citing a report from Qualcomm, a big-name component supplier whose products are actually fully relevant to the iPhone, Ars Technica claims the next iPhone probably won't launch before October due to shortages of Qualcomm's cellular baseband chips. Those are kind of important, because without them there's no Phone in iPhone. B.S. detector reading: 0/10. I don't doubt Ars' source or the veracity of its report, and the site helpfully notes that Apple was probably aiming for an October launch in the first place. No credible reports have arisen pointing to a midsummer iPhone refresh this year, so a "delay" to October shouldn't surprise anyone. Rumor: iPhone 5 Home Buttons Appear for Sale (AppleBitch) In what must constitute the least exciting parts leak all year, subtly different Home buttons have appeared on a Chinese supplier site. Rather than two small tabs jutting out from the central circle, these new Home buttons have a big, rounded rectangle flange around them. Excited yet? No? What if I told you it's for the iPhone 5?!? Still no? Eh, I tried. B.S. detector reading: 5/10. Who knows what product these buttons are destined for? More to the point, who cares? The only rise this particular rumor got out of me was, "Maybe this is finally the end of those stupid 'Next iPhone won't have a Home button' rumors." Apple CEO Tim Cook spotted at video game designer Valve's headquarters (AppleInsider) Supposedly Tim Cook showed up at Valve earlier this week, and that set off a storm of speculation across the Internet. What could it mean? What could it mean?! B.S. detector reading: 10/10. After hearing the Apple CEO was on their turf, Valve co-founder Gabe Newell and several other employees emailed back and forth trying to figure out who met with Tim Cook. It turns out no one did, because Tim Cook was never at Valve. I don't know who fed that particular line to AppleInsider, but I hope the site now realizes that the Cook is a lie. That's a full week's worth of the Apple blogosphere's rumor offal. Come back next Monday for more exciting tales of imaginary and often nonsensical products, brought to you from the finest, drunkest analysts that money can buy.
8 GB iPad 2 headed to enterprises? Why this makes no sense
When DigiTimes reports Apple rumors, I usually ignore them. Today's rumor that Apple will produce a cheaper 8 GB iPad 2 aimed at enterprise usage was just too silly to ignore. According to DigiTimes, "In addition to iPad 3, Apple is also expected to unveil an 8GB iPad 2, allowing the tablet PC series to cover different segments and to defend against Windows 8-based tablet PCs, the sources noted." Apple has never been obsessed about market share, and why the company would suddenly want to go for a bargain-priced low-end 8 GB model to compete with an emerging product (Windows 8) or existing cheap tablets (Kindle Fire) is absurd. Sure, the price of the 16 and 32 GB "iPad 3s" will most likely be in the same range as the existing iPad 2s, but both private enterprise and government have been snapping those models up in huge numbers -- even in a stagnant economy. This rumor is also completely at odds with another DigiTimes rumor -- that Apple is planning to come out with a 7.85" iPad that would come with a lower price tag to compete with Amazon's Kindle Fire, the Barnes & Noble Nook Color, and other Android-based tablets. If, as DigiTimes seems to be asserting, Apple is looking for a less expensive iPad to sell to enterprises, why wouldn't they just produce and sell the fictitious mini-iPad? Next, unless most enterprises only have a handful of apps that they wish to run on their iPads, wouldn't more storage be a requirement instead of less? From my years working in industry, I recall that we always aimed high in our hardware requirements, since we could get more years out of hardware purchases by spending a bit more and we always found that our in-house applications needed more storage and RAM than originally planned. DigiTimes also thinks that Apple will forego production of a 64 GB model of the iPad 3. Apparently they haven't been keeping up with power users, who are constantly clamoring for more storage for video and music. There is a slight bit of logic in this assumption, since Apple is making a push towards more storage in the iCloud and that would make onboard storage less of a requirement. Still, there are iPad users for whom iCloud and iTunes Match are not a solution, and who would quickly pony up for an expensive 128 GB model. What do you think about an 8 GB iPad 2 entry-level model? Does it make more sense than a smaller form-factor iPad? (For the record, I think it does...) Your comments are welcomed below. [via ZDNet]
