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Commercial success dependent on 'more than just quality,' Divnich suggests
Pictured: A successful commercial Speaking during a presentation at the recent Montreal International Game Summit (as covered by Edge), EEDAR Director of Analyst Services Jesse Divnich highlighted a tenuous connection between game review scores and commercial success. In the case of Nintendo's DS, Divnich is quoted as saying "scores don't matter." But do they matter among a more dedicated gaming audience? "When we did compare Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 only games, we did, to no surprise, find that review scores highly correlated to sales," Divnich told Joystiq. "However, marketing correlation was still just a tad bit more." According to EEDAR's research, marketing has played the "more crucial role" with DS games and, to some degree, Wii games (a point Nintendo's Reggie Fils-Aime seems to agree on). While emphasizing that his aim was not to dismiss the value of critical evaluation, Divnich suggested that marketing plays a more persuasive role in what has become a burgeoning industry. "Video games are now a mass marketed product, it is a product that targets all major demographics, very similar to television or movies or any other sector within the entertainment division." While Joystiq readers may lock out the din of marketing as they tap the F5 key and anxiously wait for review embargoes to lift, the industry has grown to encompass people who aren't as exposed to the likes of Metacritic. It seems that being informed takes precedence over being entertained -- at least until you start playing the game. "Quality does matter," concluded Divnich, "but marketing matters just a little bit more."
EEDAR: Blame low industry sales on casual gamers
EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich recently told Industry Gamers that the low sales reported by NPD in October can be attributed mainly to casual gamers. Specifically, he placed the blame on "non-traditional and casual gamers who have failed to make follow-up purchases." Conversely, Divnich said that core game sales have been "quite healthy" throughout 2009. So, what can drive casual gamers back to the cash register? "it will take the introduction of some new style of gameplay or peripheral before we see a resurgence in the casual and non-traditional markets," said Divnich, noting that his company expects a new DS to arrive in 2010 (presumably a next generation model, not another redesign). In addition, Divnich believes that Microsoft's Project Natal could reinvigorate interest in motion-controlled gaming among both core and casual gamers. Divnich also reiterated his belief that the Wii will remain on top for the rest of the year. He also thinks the PS3 could outsell the Xbox 360 over the holidays. He did note, however, that PS3 sales are "declining much faster post-price drop than the Xbx 360," suggesting that it's too early to claim any definite winners in the long run.
EEDAR predicts Nintendo dominance, weak GTA and Brutal Legend performance in October sales
EEDAR has released its predictions for October sales charts in North America. Analyst Jesse Divnich expects year-over-year declines for every console except the PS3 -- but also expects the Wii to regain its place at the lead, with an estimated 600,000 units sold. Divnich predicts that the Wii will remain at the top for the rest of the year -- based partly on New Super Mario Bros. Wii. Divnich expects the title to lose initially to Modern Warfare 2 in November, but pick up sales in the holidays and become the best-selling game of the year. Other games expected to pick up in the holidays include Grand Theft Auto: Episodes from Liberty City and Brutal Legend. Divnich expects both games to underperform in October (coming in at under 100,000 and 300,000 units, respectively), but to receive significant boosts in the holidays. Demon's Souls, however, may exceed expectations. Divnich estimates that Atlus's punishing RPG sold 100,000 copies in October.
Analyst: 'Sony was saved by the success of the Wii'
If you haven't heard, the PlayStation Wii is so successful, it pretty much prints money. Wait, Sony didn't make the Wii? Then how did the market analysts of DFC Intelligence come to the conclusion that "Sony was saved by the success of the Wii?" According to DFC, the Wii's mainstream appeal forced Microsoft into a successful, but not entirely dominant position. "The main danger Sony faced was that the Xbox 360 would become embedded as the system of choice. Instead consumers flocked to the Nintendo Wii. The Xbox 360 had solid sales, but they have not been enough to give Microsoft anywhere near a breakout market position," the report explains. Should enthusiasm for the Wii wane this holiday season, the recent price drop, coupled with with impending release of God of War III, finally positions the PS3 as a viable choice for mainstream consumers, the report notes. EEDAR's Jesse Divnich agrees, pointing out that Sony can finally utilize its leverage from the previous generation. "People who purchase a PS2 are more likely to purchase a PS3 in the future. Consumers, believe it or not, are pretty loyal." Three years after the launch of the PS3, Blu-ray is also finally becoming a marketable feature for mainstream consumers, the report argues. "This holiday season Blu-ray movies are finally getting a major focus at retail ... Blu-ray clearly now becomes a strong selling point for the PlayStation 3." Undoubtedly, SCEA will create an ad that focuses on this aspect of the system that "only does everything." While DFC's report comes off as incredibly bullish, it's understandable to see why there's some doubt over Sony's ability to capitalize on the moment. Let's not forget, this is a company that managed to fall from first to last place in the course of a year. "The cards are in Sony's favor and now is the time to make the most of them ... Now is the time for Sony to shine ... or else." [Via CVG] Source - Is it Time for the PlayStation 3 to Shine? Source - How the venerable PlayStation 2 made it to 9 years old
EEDAR: Game sales slowdown turned around in September
2009 hasn't been the best year for the games industry. Month after month, we hear reports of reduced sales figures, company closures, and layoffs. Things may be turning around, though, as EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes software sales during September 2009 have actually gone up from 2008, the first time in seven months thanks to strong sales of Halo 3: ODST, Wii Sports Resort, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2, Madden NFL 10 and Batman: Arkham Asylum. All in all, software sales should come in at $715 million, a 16% increase over last year.The music genre may be slowing down, but Divnich notes that "both Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band have performed at levels ahead of retail expectations," with sales predicted at 800k and 1 million units respectively. The same analyst at EEDAR previously predicted that Guitar Hero 5 would outsell The Beatles 2:1. With NPD sales results dropping next week, we'll soon see how accurate Divnich's latest analysis is.
EEDAR expects PS3 to be top selling console in Sept.
Three years and $300 worth of price cuts later, PS3 may finally hit the top of the hardware sales charts in America. EEDAR's analyst Jesse Divnich predicts 400,000 PS3s were sold in September, edging out both Wii and Xbox 360 sales (375k and 370k units respectively).It's far from a landslide victory for Sony, but it may be the start of a turnaround for the long-beleaguered platform. If the hardware maintains momentum, the next issue Sony will have to tackle is software. While EEDAR's hardware numbers peg PS3 at the top, its software charts only show one PS3 game in the top 10: Batman: Arkham Asylum. With the remainder of the chart dominated by 360 and Wii games, it's clear Sony still has a long way to go in the console wars.
EEDAR: PS3's $299 price to become 'new standard' for next year
Microsoft isn't likely to take today's unsurprising (but welcomed!) PS3 price drop to $299 lying down. EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes Microsoft will follow suit with their own announcement next week, officially killing the $299 Pro SKU and replacing it with a price-dropped $299 Elite model. Divnich says Sony's price cut "will close the sales gap between the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360," but doesn't offer a clear "winner" this holiday season. While he says the PS3 is a "superior hardware product," he also draws attention to Xbox 360's "deeper software library and superior online services." Without a disparity in pricing, it should prove interesting to see what mainstream consumers choose this holiday: hardware or software? Looking forward, Divnich notes that $299 is likely to remain the "new standard" price for the two consoles for the next year. One or both may drop down to $249, but he believes that's the lowest prices can go in the next two years. Instead of continued price drops, Divnich believes both Microsoft and Sony may pursue including Natal and the PlayStation Motion Controller as standard attachments in the future. Is it just us, or does the "console war" seem like it's only just beginning? [Image Source]
Take-Two not expecting profitability for fiscal '09
Take-Two held a conference call, following the disappointing news of BioShock 2's delay, to update investors on its current financial situation. With BioShock's absence, Take-Two's holiday sales will rely on Borderlands, Grand Theft Auto: The Ballad of Gay Tony and the PSP version of Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars. While all are arguably high-profile titles, none are expected to generate the kind of revenue as a brand new BioShock title -- and that's going to hurt Take-Two's bottom line.Like many other publishers suffering from the economic depression, Take-Two has confirmed the company will not be able to achieve profitability for the fiscal 09 year. While specific figures were not released during the call, the company once again reiterated that its outlook for fiscal '10 is far more positive, expecting profit "without a new multiplatform Grand Theft Auto release."Touting a lineup that includes Max Payne 3, BioShock 2 and a number of "unannounced titles" for release in late 2010, analyst Jesse Divnich of EEDAR agrees. "The news of BioShock 2 being delayed into fiscal 2010 has drastically changed my view on the Take-Two. I originally anticipated that Take-Two would outperform the industry in fiscal 2010. Now, I expect them to dominate fiscal 2010."
Divnich: High profile DLC can hurt lesser retail titles
In a column on IndustryGamers, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich lays down his case for premium downloadable content and its effect on the retail scene. According to Divnich, whenever a high profile game receives premium DLC, it can actually hurt the sales of lower profile games in the same genre. He notes that a blockbuster game normally has a blackout period of a few weeks, meaning that when a new game comes out -- he uses Halo 4 as an example -- there's a period before and after its release when gamers are less likely to buy a similar game. Whenever that same game gets DLC, players are once again less liable to purchase a similar game for a certain period before and after the release of the DLC. After all, why would you pick up Call of Duty: The Next One, if you're still playing that fancy new Halo DLC?The long and short of it, says Divnich, is that DLC has nothing but a negative impact on retail. It's actually a double impact, as DLC both prevents gamers from buying a new game and from selling their current games back to used game retailers like GameStop. According to Divnich, digital sales are going to seriously impact retail sooner than believed.
EEDAR analyst apologizes for his report supporting the Q4 wallet drain
The latest report from research company EEDAR reveals that, despite complaints from gamers that publishers are overloading the fourth quarter every year, well-reviewed titles typically perform 15-20 percent better than games with high Metacritic released in the "off season." Don't worry, though, we expressed our discontent by calling EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich and yelling, "What are you doing!? You're ruining everything!" Divnich apologized and said he uses GameFly to mitigate his own personal financial damage during the holidays. He wishes the numbers would show something different and recognizes a core gamer would need to increase their gaming budget by 200% during the holidays to keep up.Divnich also wanted us to note that, despite it being widely reported that his research states the PS3's library has the highest percentage of titles with an 85 or higher Metacritic score, the Xbox 360 has a larger quantity of such titles overall. Whatever, we've found a scapegoat for our empty wallets during the holidays. Divnich is the first phone call we're making to hit up for cash.
Analysts predict over ten million sales for MotionPlus
Both Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter and EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich expect the Wii MotionPlus peripheral to achieve sales of around ten million units in the US and Europe. The two just disagree on how long it will take. Pachter believes that the sales will happen early on, driven by bundles of early MotionPlus compatible software: "I think around 20 percent of Wii owners in the US and Europe will have bought Wii Sports Resort, Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 or EA Sports Grand Slam Tennis," Pachter told Edge, "so that's around eight million." He added, "I think another two million will buy MotionPlus with new consoles."Divnich thinks three million units will sell through this holiday season, but it will take an additional year to achieve the ten-million-plus level of sales. "For the Wii MotionPlus, we currently expect the install base to reach over 11 million units by the end of Nintendo's next fiscal year in March 2011, a 15 percent penetration."Both analysts think Red Steel 2 is a risk that could pay off for Ubisoft. "Red Steel 2 may come along at precisely the right time, around when people are ready for another [MotionPlus] game," Pachter said. "The risk is really more a function of competition, compounded by the risk that Ubisoft could make a bad game." Both analysts believe that Red Steel 2 will be bundled with a MotionPlus.
Sony expects 10-15% sales rise for PSP/PS3 this year
At least that's what John Koller, head of marketing for Sony Computer Entertainment of America, told VG247 earlier this week. "We had our largest sales year ever last year, and we'd look to go about 10-15 percent north of that this year," Koller said of the PSP, citing the upcoming software packs and software lineup as reason for his confidence. Continuing, Koller noted, "We also had our best sales year for PS3 last year and we'll look to go north of that by a similar percentage," again citing upcoming software bundles and lineup as driving the increased numbers. So we put the numbers for Sony's PS3 in 2008 against those of the previous year and found it sold just like Koller said (as seen in the graph above), with PS3 sales increasing by 40 percent. In fact, we spoke with Jesse Divnich, director of analyst services at EEDAR, who said Koller's numbers are modest, with EEDAR company predicting a 25 percent increase in PlayStation 3 sales this year and a 16 percent increase for PSP sales. Even averaged together, that's still an over 20 percent increase predicted for this year. So, maybe 2008 was the year of the PS3 after all?
Analysts: PS2 sales to increase 30% after price drop, others question effect on software
Analyst Jesse Divnich of EEDAR believes that the PS2 price drop to a Franklin will boost US sales of the console by 30 percent. Divnich's report also estimates that PS2 software will maintain an 18 percent market share, rather than drop down to 16 percent had there not been a cut.Gamasutra also spoke with analyst Matt Matthews, who points out that any consumer waiting for the PS2 to reach $100 is "cost-conscious" enough to buy games from the used bin at GameStop, meaning those consumers aren't likely to help new software sales. Apparently, Sony's Jack Tretton agreed with this notion last summer in an Edge interview, when he asked, "If that $30 was the difference between buying a console and not buying a console, how many games are you going to sell to that person?"At the time, he questioned how strategically important that consumer really is. Apparently, nine months and a fiscal crisis at the company is enough to change some minds.
Analyst: PS3 price cut won't help Sony in short term
Despite the rallying of software publishers, EEDAR Analyst Jesse Divnich thinks a PS3 price cut won't be that beneficial to Sony in the short term. In his retail sales preview for February 2009, Divnich calls the hypothetical, analyst-expected June price drop "unlikely to propel sales ahead of last [fiscal] year for the first half of 2009." Even though he says the PS3 has "an impressive holiday 09 line-up," he claims Microsoft's successful campaign to position itself as the "core console of choice" won't give Sony much wiggle room. Currently, the PS3 is in last place for this gen, but Divnich has high hopes for PS3 in the long term. He expects Sony's system to pick up steam by "2011 through 2017," when Blu-ray becomes dirt cheap. It's not a very optimistic outlook.
Analyst: Lost and Damned earned $18 million online, $3 million at retail
Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR) analyst Jesse Divnich's crystal ball predicts brick-and-mortar retail sales of GTA IV's expansion, The Lost and Damned, to be less than $3 million. He believes current global sales from customers who purchased it across Xbox Live to be around $18 million. This latest bit of analyst prognostication comes following Pachter's missive (translated from an Illuminati memo) that GTA's biker expansion could sell upwards of two million units by year's end.Although the 6-to-1 online vs. retail ratio seems dramatic, is it really surprising when The Lost and Damned was promoted as a DLC pack anyway? In this case, retail was just a middle man, as those who purchased the "game" at their local bodega received a card with a code to download the expansion. All we really know at this point is that the game is selling very well.%Gallery-37692%
Analyst: median Wii game price dropped to $40 in 2008
In case you hadn't noticed (we're imagining Rich Uncle Pennybags types who just keep handing cashiers wads of cash until they look satisfied), game prices have been moving upward in this console generation. $59.99 is the new base price for console games, and limited editions drive the prices up further -- except on the Wii.EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich made statements in the group's February "Expose" document that support the conclusions of Signal Hill's Todd Greenwald -- that the "average MSRP could flatten or fall in 2009." According to his estimates, the median MSRP for Wii games at release has already fallen: from $49.99 in 2007 to $39.99 in 2008. The proliferation of budget shovelware certainly has a lot to do with this trend, but cheap shovelware is a lot less obnoxious than expensive shovelware. Plus, the widespread lowering of initial prices should lead to a similar trend among non-shovelware publishers, as well.[Via GoNintendo]
Hardware shortages blamed for Wii's underwhelming December
Let's make this clear: Wii sold a helluva lot of units in North America during December. 2.15 million consoles in a single month is a number Sony and Microsoft can only dream about right now, but there's no doubt that the figures weren't as grand as expected. He who is Pachter predicted the console would clear the 3 million mark, only for the platform to fall short by 850,000 units.Why the lower-than-expected sales? As usual, analysts reckon they have the answer: more of those accursed hardware shortages. EEDAR's Jesse Divnich and Deutsche Bank analyst Jeetil Patel both believe demand outweighed supply for the third December running, with Divnich stating the Wii would have sold "north of 4 million units" if more consoles had been produced in time.Phew, panic over! Wii's not the next N-Gage or anything![Via Joystiq]
Analysts say 360 price cut should have Sony worried
If you haven't heard, the Xbox 360 has received yet another price cut. Effective today, the Xbox 360 Arcade model is available for only $199 -- that's $200 less than the cheapest PS3 model. While the PS3 is arguably a better deal, with the inclusion of a Blu-ray drive, integrated wireless and free online play, penny-pinching casual gamers may not see the value proposition of a system that costs twice as much as its competition. "Given the weaker consumer spending environment, the Xbox 360 should also now be in closer reach of more price-sensitive consumers," analyst Colin Sebastian said.However, with Sony focused on profitability this year, a competitive price drop does not appear to be on the radar for the PS3. Instead, Sony has opted to create larger hard drives and more attractive bundle options, such as the 160GB Uncharted bundle. "I suspect that the reason why Sony has been so adamant about maintaining its current price point is because it has not reached a more efficient scale in its manufacturing of the PS3," said analyst Jesse Divnich.Divinich also tells Edge that "Sony should be the most concerned [about the 360's price cut] ... Going into this holiday season, the PS3 will not only have the highest price point, but also the smallest software library, weaker line-up of exclusive titles (compared to Xbox 360's Gears of War 2 and Fable 2), and a less popular online network." Apparantly, he forgot about Resistance 2, SOCOM, LittleBigPlanet and a number of other PS3-exclusive titles for this holiday season. However, will the lure of these titles make up for the increasing price gap between these two rival consoles?
Growing Wii supply to guarantee less stressful holiday season
Even as holiday seasons go, the previous two were pretty damn horrible if you were a parent trying to find a Wii for your offspring. You could spot a harried, stressed parent almost everywhere you turned on the high street, their wide, panicked eyes and expressions of fear and uncertainty giving them away in game emporiums up and down the land.But it doesn't have to be the same this year! This year, lil' Timmy will be opening a fresh new Wii come Christmas Day -- as long as you buy early enough. And if not, at least now we have somebody to blame: EEDAR's director of analytical services Jesse Divnich. Writing on Gamasutra, Divnich suggests that falling prices on the Wii's gray market mean that supply and demand are now close to being equal. "Given the trend," reasons the analyst, "it is likely that supply will finally outpace demand before the holiday season."Don't just rest on your laurels, however, for Divnich thinks that demand may outpace supply again during November and December. The best solution? Buy one now and hide it until the time for gift-giving has arrived.Hide it well, though -- or at least, hide it better than this blogger's parents hid Virtua Racing during the Christmas 1994 season. I must have had a solid four weeks with that game before I was required to act surprised on Christmas Day morning.
Rumors: Xbox 360 at E3 - new 60GB model, pricecut, both?
What a way to kick of a Monday. After last night's torrent of marketing leaks, we woke up to these two fresh rumors concerning the Xbox 360 and Microsoft's E3 showing next month. At the current rate, we're statistically likely to discover every single surprise Microsoft had in store for E3 (and maybe a couple E3s down the road) but let's start here.TrustedReviews is following up on their earlier rumor of a new 60GB Xbox 360 model claiming that, after some evident equivocation, Microsoft is finally ready to announce it at E3 and release it as early as this August (pre-10th says their source). No information on how the larger hard drive would affect other SKUs – would the Arcade get a hard drive or would the Elite get bumped up? – but that's the way these things are.Second rumor regards a possible pricedrop to be delivered at E3 this year. Following last week's NPD data showing a slight dip in monthly 360 sales, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich said, "With E3 around the corner, we can expect Microsoft to make some type of announcement regarding a hardware price cut, the introductory of a new hardware SKU with new features, or both." Both sounds best here. How about a new, cheaper 60GB model?[Via Engadget]Source – 60GB Xbox 360 To Launch At E3Source – Microsoft to cut US Xbox 360 price at E3, says analyst
