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55 people think the iPad is more valuable than the Galaxy Tab (updated)
If you read tech news today, expect to see a story making the rounds concerning a "consumer poll" rating the iPad versus the Galaxy Tab. According to the report, an "overwhelming majority" of consumers prefer Apple's tablet over its nearest Android competitor -- a whopping 85 percent of those queried felt the iPad had a higher perceived value than the Tab. Sounds shocking, right? Except there's one small problem. The "survey" (and really, you have to use the term loosely here) consisted of 65 people. Let's just say that again: 65 respondents. That's problem number one. Problem number two is that the survey was conducted by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who is not only using a bizarre and somewhat useless metric like "perceived value" to judge these devices, but is also known for wildly miscalculating sales numbers and expectations for Apple products. In fact, Gene Munster should probably be close to the top of the most wanted list for irresponsible analysts. Some of his famous misses? Take the wildly speculative report that Apple would sell 5.6m iPads in 2010 (a baseless prediction which he quickly reassessed to more reasonable digits... the day after the device's launch), or the prediction that Apple would build its own search engine (so far so good!), and of course, Gene's news that Apple will have an HDTV on the market by 2011. Did we mention the $1,000 AAPL stock price call? No? Okay. So this latest report, in which Gene apparently just polled the families living on his block, seems beyond disingenuous. The margin of error on a group of 65 people is so high that it makes the results of the iPad vs. Galaxy Tab study all but meaningless, and further demonstrates the insidious, dangerous power of some analysts and their fantasy football stock manipulations. The moral of the story? Next time you see the names Gene and Munster in the same sentence, don't just take the news with a grain of salt -- use the whole shaker. Update: Piper Jaffray analyst Andrew Murphy (one of the other researchers on this report) got in touch and gave us some background on the sourcing and methodology for finding respondents. In his words: The respondents were chosen randomly on their way in/out of a large national retail chain. After spending time with each device, they were asked which they'd prefer and what a reasonable price for each would be. It's worth noting that that information is found nowhere in the report itself, nor is any other detail provided (type of store, geographic location, age / socioeconomic background, etc.), though this charming section is included: Research Disclosures Piper Jaffray was making a market in the securities of Apple, Inc. at the time this research report was published. Piper Jaffray will buy and sell Apple, Inc. securities on a principal basis.
Gene Munster: Apple could sell 6.2 million iPads in 2010
Right after the iPad's announcement, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimated the device would sell between three and four million units in 2010. Now that two million iPads have been sold in less than 60 days, Munster has revised his estimates upward. He now believes Apple will sell 6.2 million iPads in 2010. It's unlikely sales will exceed this number, but only because Apple can't seem to crank iPads out of the factory fast enough to keep up with demand. According to Munster's study, 74% of US Apple Stores were sold out of the iPad on May 21. International stores are expected to follow the same trend: strong early sales followed by limited availability of stock. For some perspective on the iPad's sales so far, it's worth looking at a Munster sales estimate from December of last year, about a month before the iPad's announcement. Munster then believed the iPad would sell 1.4 million iPads in 2010, at a rate of about 162,000 units per month. Instead, the iPad has far exceeded that 2010 sales estimate after only two months, and Apple has been selling an average of 34,000 iPads per day since its launch. Love it or hate it, there's no denying that the iPad has been a phenomenal success.
Industry analyst -- iPad outselling the Mac
Industry analyst Mike Abramsky of RBC Capital Markets is bullish on the iPad, noting that at this early date, Apple is selling more than 200,000 a week of the new device. By comparison, US sales of Macs are hovering at about 110,000 per week and sales of the iPhone 3GS are at about 246,000 per week based on first quarter 2010 sales figures. Now, remember that this is all based on the iPad selling in one country -- the United States. The official international launch of the iPad is coming up at the end of next week, which prompted Abramsky to raise his estimate of global iPad sales during 2010 from 5 million to a whopping 8 million. Some may be thinking that iPad sales are cannibalizing sales of Macs, but Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster shot that theory down earlier in the week, noting that it's more likely that iPod sales will suffer. UBS analyst Maynard Um ran a small survey which showed that most iPad buyers don't see the device as a replacement for their more traditional computers, including Macs. Many analysts are of the opinion that the iPad, like the iPhone before it, will generate a "halo effect" that will drive sales of other Apple products as well. [Digital Daily, via The Loop]
Mac sales going strong, but iPod sales down
Immediately after the iPad's introduction, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster predicted that the iPad would have a minimal effect on sales of the Mac. "The gadget is a premium mobile device, not a computer," Munster said. "Consumers looking for an affordable portable computer will likely stick with the MacBook lineup." The latest NPD data has proven Munster's prediction correct. US Mac sales were up 39 percent year-over-year in April, and Munster believes Mac sales will continue to grow from 19-23% over 2009 sales. At that rate, Apple may sell as many as 3.2 million Macs during the current quarter. Part of that sales increase can be attributed to recent updates to the MacBook Pro, with forthcoming updates for the MacBook and MacBook Air also expected any day now. Sales data for the iPod is less encouraging, but this is also in line with Munster's January prediction that the iPad would likely cannibalize sales of Apple's lower-priced media players. iPod sales are down by 17% year-over-year, which is an even worse dropoff than what Munster predicted. However, there's an upshot to the decline in iPod sales: according to the data, many people deciding against buying an iPod are buying an iPad instead, leading to increased revenue for Apple. With an average price four times that of the average iPod, Munster calls iPad cannibalization of iPod sales "a net positive for Apple's business." There's no indication from NPD of what effect, if any, the iPad is having on the iPhone's sales. However, it seems unlikely that the iPad is significantly affecting the iPhone's sales compared to other factors. Numerous media leaks have pretty much cemented the notion that iPhone updates are due soon, with coverage so widespread and mainstream that even average consumers must be well aware that it's a good idea (for them) to hold off on buying an iPhone until the likely update next month. Apple reportedly told police that Gizmodo's leak was "immensely damaging" to Apple for that very reason; we'll probably have to wait until Apple's next earnings release sometime in July before we know just how immense the damage has been.
Piper Jaffray estimates a big boost in Mac sales
In a report issued today (cited by Apple 2.0 and SAI), Piper Jaffray's leading light on all things AAPL gazed into his crystal ball and served up some notes on NPD retail sales data. Gene Munster's numbers are especially interesting as we head into tomorrow's earnings report. The lowdown: Munster is looking for a Mac sales number between 2.8 and 2.9 million machines, based off of NPD's retail data showing a 25% year over year boost in Mac sales for the quarter. He's also looking for iPod sales between 9 and 10 million, and 7.5 million iPhone sales. What's weird is that NPD data showed Mac sales up 39% for January and February... perhaps there was a March slowdown as anticipation built for new laptop models. Considering that Q2 2009 was a record quarter for both revenue and earnings for Apple -- 2.22 million Macs sold, 11 million iPods and 3.79 million iPhones -- it will be interesting to see where this year's numbers end up, with a rebounding economy and more outlets for the iPhone 3GS. This is the second quarter of Apple's new revenue recognition scheme for iPhone and Apple TV, meaning every single sale of an iPhone hits the bottom line in full force (not to mention the 1/8th share of iPhone sale prices from previous quarters). Apple 2.0 has its quarterly rundown of analyst predictions at the ready, with a consensus earnings number close to 12 billion. I'll get out my dartboard and make my predictions here: Revenues of $12.79B, 3.25 million Macs sold, 7.75m iPhones sold. Disclaimer: I hold a small long-term position in AAPL.
Piper Jaffray: Apple sold 600-700 thousand iPads the first day
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster issued a research note this morning that Apple likely sold 600-700 thousand iPads on Saturday. That's a far cry from the 200-300 thousand he originally predicted. His numbers included online pre-orders that started on March 12. It's unclear what information Munster is using for his analysis, but he does note one interesting statistic: the NYC Fifth Avenue Apple Store had 730 people in line for the iPad launch, compared to 350 for the iPhone 3GS and 540 for the iPhone 3G. Let's assume if pre-orders hadn't been available, everyone that ordered one would have shown up on day one to buy an iPad. If Munster's high-end numbers are correct, 700,000 iPads in one day is a phenomenal launch considering it's a brand new device in a brand new category. The iPhone 3G and 3GS sold one million units in three days and the first iPhone sold one million units in 74 days. The iPhone wasn't in an entirely new category, however -- after all, many buyers had previously owned a mobile phone or smartphone before. Selling 700,000 units of a new device in a new consumer electronics category in one day is incredible. It will be interesting to see if the iPad can break the one million mark by the end of its third day of availability on Tuesday (as many retail stores were closed for Easter this Sunday). With the 3G-enabled version of the iPad slated to launch later this month, there's likely to be another spike in sales for Apple's latest creation. Even though sales for the iPad will inevitably trail off after the launch day fervor, considering the strong sales numbers already reached, the iPad is definitely on track to beat the first iPhone's sales. [Via MacRumors] Thanks to Chris R. for his contributions to this post.
Munster: Apple developing a search engine
The great prognosticator Gene Munster (who spends his days working as an analyst at Piper Jaffray) has another guess at Apple's future for us: a search engine. He says there's a 70% chance that Apple will create its own search engine within the next five years -- right after that HDTV that he predicted a little while back. Obviously, putting together a search engine is a big undertaking, and once again, it seems unlikely that Apple would want to put one little toe into such a crowded pool. However, Munster's got that covered; he says that, instead of building from scratch, Apple might use some of its huge pool of cash to buy an existing database like Cuil. While that seems unlikely as well, it does make a little bit of sense. If Apple and Google really are on the rocks (sit-down between Jobs and Schmidt notwithstanding), Apple is probably looking at strategies to extricate itself from Google's search grip.
First iPad sales estimates: four million this year, double that in 2011
Even though the device won't be released for another two months, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has been quick to revise his sales estimates for the iPad. His former estimate of 1.9 million units sold in the first 12 months was based on an estimated average price tag of $600; now that we know the iPad is priced much lower than that, Munster has revised his estimate accordingly. With the official pricing revealed, Munster now projects iPad sales of 3-4 million units in the first twelve months and double that amount in 2011, which would generate $4.6 billion in revenue for Apple next year. Munster doesn't think the iPad will cannibalize Mac sales, however. "The gadget is a premium mobile device, not a computer," Munster believes, and goes on to say that "consumers looking for an affordable portable computer will likely stick with the MacBook lineup." Munster thinks it far more likely that the iPad will cannibalize sales of the iPod touch, and has revised his sales estimate of that device downward by 1.8 million units for 2010. I can tell you at least one person who won't be part of that 3-4 million sales for the iPad: me. When we at TUAW posted about our dreams for the then-unnamed tablet last August, I said, "In order for me to get really excited about an iTablet, it would have to be more than a gap-filler between the iPhone and the MacBook. It would have to be revolutionary, a device that does something neither existing product is able to do." Based on what I've seen about the iPad so far, though, the device seems to be something targeted toward people who don't already have that particular setup and are missing either an iPhone/iPod touch or a MacBook. That might be exactly what 3-4 million people are looking for this year, and maybe 8 million more next year, but it's not something that suits my own computing needs in any way. What do you think? Are you planning on getting an iPad and joining Munster's legions? Let us know in the comments.
Munster: Apple will sell more than 36 million iPhones worldwide in 2010
The wizard of tech on Wall Street, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, is bullish on AAPL. Not only does the senior research analyst (who looks nothing like our artistic portrait at right) project that the company will sell 36 million iPhones in 2010, but he believes that the number is conservative for international sales and doesn't take into account any expansion to other U.S. cell carriers -- Verizon, for instance. Munster's prognostications were published in a note to investors this morning, where he noted that this will be the first full year of sales with new carriers in the U.K., Canada, and France, and also the first full year of sales in China. Munster also believes that a new iPhone model will arrive around the usual June - July time frame, and that will drive sales as well. While the estimates seem rather optimistic, Munster says that his models are actually quite conservative, particularly when international sales are taken into account. For example, the Piper Jaffray models show that AT&T alone will sell 15.8 million iPhones to their customer base of 82.5 million customers, while a composite figure for three Russian carriers shows 1.8 million iPhones being sold to a combined base of 160 million subscribers. Looking ahead for calendar year 2011, Munster sees a worldwide total sales figure of 48.5 million iPhones, once again based on a model that he considers conservative. [via AppleInsider]
If AT&T loses iPhone exclusivity, Apple will gain
Is AT&T holding back the iPhone's sales potential? That's the conclusion of analysts at Piper Jaffray. In a report issued today, the firm says Apple is likely to go with multiple carriers, as the company is already doing in other world markets like France and the U.K. To make the point, the report cites iPhone sales in France, where Apple's share of the smartphone market zoomed to 40% from 15% since Orange lost the exclusive there. What does that mean for AT&T? If Apple finds additional partners, AT&T could lose a hefty chunk of customers who haven't been too thrilled with the way the communications giant has performed with the iPhone. There is still no tethering, MMS took a long time to roll out, and there is a continuing complaint of dropped calls from every corner of the country. One wonders what is going on inside Verizon. The best-regarded US cell carrier for coverage & network quality is the subject of many rumors about the iPhone being offered, and others rumors of the mythical Apple tablet coming to Verizon. It's all especially interesting as Verizon has been bashing the iPhone in a series of TV ads hyping the upcoming Droid from Motorola and Google. Doesn't seem like Verizon is warming up the relationship. It will be an interesting next few months as competition increases; partners may or may nor change, and Apple will be looking to increase market share for one of the hottest phones on the market. [via Business Week]
Munster: Apple to sell 500,000 units of iPhone 3G S this weekend
Everyone's favorite Apple analyst, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, is positively bullish on Apple and the iPhone. In a forecast released today and reported in AppleInsider, Munster says he expects Apple to sell a half-million units of the iPhone 3G S this weekend. This is much more than the 270,000 first-generation iPhones sold in the first weekend in 2007, but pales in comparison to the 1 million mark set last year with the release of the iPhone 3G. The difference this year? When the iPhone 3G was released in 2008, the new equipment was also accompanied by a drop in price and availability in 21 countries. For new users, the 3G S is the same price as the 3G, and the release of the 3G S tomorrow will only happen in 8 key market countries.Munster's other prognostications include a total of 3 million iPhones sold in June for a quarterly total of 5 million, and an estimate of 7 million sold in the upcoming September quarter. He continues to rate AAPL as a buy, and has a $180 target share price for Apple.
Munster: Apple suppliers negotiating parts deals for sub-$700 tablet
In a research note to clients, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster suggested that Apple is developing a 7-to-10-inch tablet priced at $500 to $700, perhaps ready for the public in 2010. According to AppleInsider, Munster's contacts in the supply chain haven't seen a prototype of the device, but are in discussions with Apple to supply components for something at that size and price point. Munster believes that Apple could adjust the iPhone SDK to allow for multiple display resolutions. Apps like Safari and Mail, he says, would benefit from the additional screen real estate. He also mentions that with the larger screen, more than one traditional iPhone app could be run at once. As for timing, Munster suggests that the device could be ready next year, and possibly be subsidized by a wireless carrier. As with most analysis of this kind, this is two parts hearsay, one part "interpretation of conference call statements," and seven parts wishful thinking. In providing technical details about a product that may not exist, Munster is writing checks that Apple might not be able to cash. Is this something you'd buy? Is it even going to happen? Sound off in comments.
Analyst Roundup: Morgan Stanley pooh-poohs, iPhone sales looking bright
Morgan Stanley analysts yesterday cut AAPL's price target to $95, mostly citing the weak economy. They said that despite price cuts, extreme interest in the iPhone, Mac users' high satisfaction, and marketshare momentum for Mac sales, the quarter will be slow for Apple. Blog Notable Calls said it wouldn't have been surprised if AAPL slipped by five points yesterday, but instead the stock gained 34 cents a share before the closing bell. On a brighter note, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu sees promise in iPhone gift cards, according to Fortune's Apple 2.0 blog. As with any gift card, Apple collects revenue from the customer up front. However, Apple can't report the revenue until the phone is activated, which will likely be during the first quarter of next year. Wu anticipates Apple will sell 6 million iPhone handsets during the company's fiscal Q1 2009, which includes October, November and December 2008. Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty thinks Apple will sell only 4 million that same quarter. In the same Apple 2.0 story, Philip Elmer-DeWitt notes that Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster looked at how many units Walmart might sell, after pricing details leaked on Monday. He conjectures that each Walmart store could sell 1,284 iPhones in 2009, accounting for nearly 10 percent of Apple's worldwide iPhone sales. AAPL was up by $2.50 or so in midday trading.
Munster: Apple overestimated Q3 margin impacts
Gene Munster is skeptical that Apple's guidance of lower margins for the rest of the year in its Q3 conference call back in July, and expects the company to continue to outperform expectations. The Piper Jaffray analyst said that lower prices for NAND flash memory will offset any reductions in price for new iPods introduced last month. Munster speculates that even with an introduction of a sub-$1,000 MacBook before the end of the year, Apple's margins will remain healthy. Yes, it will have an impact, but not to the degree that Apple execs hinted in their phone call: Munster thinks margins would only fall to around 30 percent. In fact, Munster says "investors would see the lack of redesigned, lower-priced Macs as a more significant negative than they would a 30 percent GM guide in the December quarter." (Emphasis mine.) He reiterated his "buy" rating. Munster's price target for AAPL is still higher than many others (at least recently), at $250 per share. [Via Ars and AppleInsider.]
Apple expected to beat the Street in September quarter
We recently reported on Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster's expectations of phenomenal iPhone sales over the next year, and now he's back with more happy Apple news!As reported on Macsimum News, Munster looked at preliminary July sales results from NPD Group, did some extrapolation, and came up with numbers showing that both iPod and Mac sales could beat Wall Street's expectations for the quarter ending September 30, 2008.Munster's prognostications show Apple selling 2.7 - 2.9 million Macs, which is up 28% year-over-year from the same period in 2007 and beating Wall Street's expectations of 2.65 million units. He also expects iPod sales to hit 10.7 - 11.2 million units, which is slightly above Wall Street's 10.8 million unit guesstimate on the high end. If Apple happens to hit the high end of these estimates (2.9 million Macs, 11.2 million iPods, 4.1 million iPhones, and a 32% gross margin), Munster calculates that Apple could post earnings per share in the range of $1.19, much better than the Street estimate of $1.11.TUAW will definitely be following this monster news during the earnings call in October. [via Macsimum News]
Analyst: 45M iPhones in 2009
Despite issues with the iPhone 3G -- less-than-stellar battery life, dropped calls, crashes, etc. -- stock market analysts are very bullish on Apple's product.BusinessWeek reported that Piper Jaffray tech analyst Gene Munster is forecasting sales of 13 million iPhone 3Gs in 2008, and a whopping 45 million on 2009. That's considerably higher than what other analysts are proposing, which is in the range of 11 million in 2008 and "only" 26 million in 2009. The BusinessWeek article also mentioned Apple's new production goals point to 40 to 45 million handsets between now and August of 2009, which fits into Munster's forecast nicely. Of course, supply is only half of the picture. Demand for the 3G depends on Apple and carriers fixing issues quickly, decent rate plans from carriers, and killer apps in the App Store.As Apple rolls into large and previously untouched markets such as Russia and China, forges deals with other retailers such as Best Buy, and works with developers to bring hot applications to the App Store, we'll see how the forecasts compare with reality.How accurate do you think the projections are? Share your opinion in a comment.
Analyst: 10 percent of September iPhone sales were unlocked, resold
Unlocked iPhones continue to be a hot commodity around the world -- carrier locking and limited regional availability will tend to do that to a popular handset, don't cha' know -- but it still might come as some surprise just how hot we're talking about here. Analysts at Piper Jaffray report that folks buying the per-customer limit of 5 iPhones were a common sight in twelve hours of research it undertook during September, suggesting that as many as 10 percent of all new iPhones sold during the month went on to become unlocked and resold. Of course, with the possibility (if not likelihood) that future firmware updates will continue to temporarily brick, relock, or otherwise cripple unlocked devices in the field, the street value of these things likely fluctuates by the minute. You know what they say: buy low, sell high.
How much are you worth to Apple?
Think you're worth 3 bucks a month? Or even 11 bucks a month? Those are the figures being bandied around today over at Seeking Alpha regarding the secret details of AT&T's revenue sharing with Apple. The post suggests that AT&T may be paying Apple $3/month for AT&T customers who switch to the iPhone and $11/month for iPhone customers who have switched carriers to AT&T. They cite a recent Piper Jaffray research note authored by analyst Gene Munster. That sounds like a lot of money to me (especially for the switching customers) heading off to Apple along with the revenues on the physical iPhone sales.
500,000 iPhones sold so far -- but can Apple keep up?
No matter how you slice it, moving 500,000 units of any product during its inaugural weekend launch is big. According to Gene Munster, analyst at Piper Jaffray, that's exactly what Apple's iPhone managed to pull off. After originally expecting Apple to sell "only" 200,000 iPhones on Friday and Saturday, he's now estimating that Apple sold a half-million iPhones from start of sales at 6pm on Friday until close of business on Sunday even with supply issues at AT&T store. According to their survey, 95% of buyers purchased the 8GB model with 50% of all buyers making the switch from another carrier to AT&T. Great news right? Maybe, but in a potentially worrying trend, Apple is showing a marked decrease in iPhone availability at their retail locations this morning. While stores showed a 100% iPhone availability (they don't break it down by 4GB and 8GB models) on Saturday which dropped to 84% on Sunday, Apple's retail channel is showing a further decline in availability for Monday across Apple's brick and mortar retail business. In particular, Californians not living in San Francisco will have a tough time locating the device with 34 of 36 stores bleeding red on Apple's retail locator site -- a potential supply problem especially if AT&T shops remain void of product. Sure, you can still order on-line albeit with that same 2-4 week delivery delay we've seen since day 1.Update: Global Equities Research claims 525,000 iPhones were sold through Sunday. A quick calculation shows that only 61% of Apple's 164 stores are stocked with iPhones for today or 23% fewer than yesterday.
Apple TV analysis from Piper Jaffray
While you're waiting for the Apple TV to ship any day now, MacNN has some interesting snippets of analysis on the device from Piper Jaffray's senior analyst, Gene Munster. Of note, there are a surprising estimate of 118 million 'active' iTunes users compared to Windows Media Center's 12 million users. That's one heck of a lead Apple has, especially for technically being later to the 'media center' game. Still, while some may view the Apple TV as an expensive piece of the Apple entertainment pie, Munster's analysis brings an interesting perspective to the table that's certainly worth a read if you're still on the fence.
