prognostication
Latest
Storyboard: Prophetic
Not every game is well suited to prophecies. Star Trek Online doesn't lend itself to vague pronouncements regarding the future, for example. Other games, such as The Secret World, seem to sustain themselves almost entirely upon prophetic vagueness, whether that's regarding mystical secrets or your bank statement for the month. And in a world filled with prophecy, it's tempting to have characters start joining in on the fun and prognosticate the future themselves. It works in books, movies, and games, after all. Of course, the thing is that a book, movie, or game is written before the fact. You can easily write a prophecy that lines up perfectly with something far down the road because you know what happens far down the road. Roleplaying, on the other hand, is not happening with a script, which means that your guesses about the future feel less like prophecy and more like someone randomly stabbing in the dark and hoping to hit something. (So more like actual prognostication.) So how do you make prophecies that don't fall apart when life happens? Here are some tips, naturally.
The Mog Log: 2013 for Final Fantasy XI and XIV
I'd like to say that 2012 started out with a lot of promise, but it really didn't. Looking back at my predictions for Final Fantasy XI and Final Fantasy XIV a year ago, I see they weren't perfectly accurate, but they certainly fit well within the margin of error. Very little happened over in Final Fantasy XI's development, and Final Fantasy XIV managed to continue not wowing anyone, albeit partly because of the several delays to version 2.0 that now have it releasing around the middle of this year. If you haven't noticed a theme yet, here it is: I'm worried that by the time it does launch, no one will care any longer. But I'm getting ahead of myself. While I've split things up between recaps and forecasts in the past, in this case it's virtually impossible to do so. A lot of what has been done this year is banking entirely on the strength of what will be happening next, so Square was selling 2013 in the midst of 2012. So let's look at the past year for both games and the year to come, with an extra helping of hope and speculation for 2013.
The Mog Log: Distinct linked games
By early next year, the environment will be an interesting one for both Final Fantasy XI and Final Fantasy XIV. Both games will have a major update out, whether that update is a large-scale revamp or a trim new expansion. (Speculation on that last one, yes; munch on a grain of salt as we proceed.) They'll both be poised for players to enjoy, each with its own distinct flavor... possibly. See, there's a definite problem with all of the coming updates in the online Final Fantasy space. Both games need a distinct identity, and yet they're also both overlapping in several core areas. Square-Enix clearly wants players to be able to enjoy Final Fantasy XI and Final Fantasy XIV as two different experiences, but is that really possible? I'd like to think it is. I think that both games can deliver a rich experience for players of all stripes without becoming mirrors of one another, even disregarding superficial elements like jumping. I think both games also need to come together on certain points of common ground, so players of either can enjoy certain shared features that would otherwise be taken for granted.
Ask Massively: I would like to play WildStar now please OK edition
At Massively, we all have our pet games, games that we follow with interest and that we want to do well. Some of mine are quite obvious, but if you weren't aware that WildStar is on that list, well, now you know. Come on, it's like Walt Disney's Firefly as an MMO and man everything I see about it just makes me want to start playing yesterday. This is kind of related to the fact that we had two separate interviews about it this week, if you hadn't guessed. It's also somewhat related to this week's Ask Massively questions, seeing as how one of those questions is about the games that we hate. Yes, I know, I did a topical introduction; I'm very ashamed of myself. I also answer a question about fantasy worlds in the distant future. If you've got a question you'd like to see in a future installment of the column, send it along to ask@massively.com or leave it in the comments below. Questions may be edited slightly for clarity and/or brevity.
TUAW TV Live at 5 PM ET: What's ahead for 2012?
With this episode of TUAW TV Live, the show goes into its third full year of production. As with every new year, there's a lot of speculation on what new trends and products we'll see from our friends in Cupertino. Today on TUAW TV Live, I may or may not have a co-host (he hasn't responded yet), but I'll certainly have opinions about what to expect in 2012. As usual, I'll be starting the show at 5 PM EDT (2 PM PDT / 10 PM BST) sharp, and we'll take a few minutes to chat before the demos start. To join in on the chat and watch the live streaming video, drop by TUAW about five minutes before the start time to get your instructions on how to participate. If you're unable to join us for the show, remember that you can always subscribe to the video podcast and watch the show at your leisure in iTunes or any other favorite podcatching app. The past shows are also available on the TUAW YouTube channel. The chat is now available as well on IRC: join us on server chat1.ustream.tv, chat room #tuaw-tv.
A Mild-Mannered Reporter: The future freaks me out
I'm hoping that the "splitting the anniversary column into two parts" thing doesn't become a yearly tradition, but we took a look into the future last year, and we're going to do it again. We're also once again referencing a song with no relevance to the proceedings beyond the title, because when you establish a tradition, you darn well stick with it. The future does indeed freak me out a little bit, because just like it does every year, City of Heroes is facing a bunch of challenges. This coming year, City of Heroes is going to be facing an interesting field if for no other reason than the simple fact that not much is happening. Unlike the past few years, which saw major superheroic MMOs launching left and right, this year seems to be in the clear. DC Universe Online has launched, Champions Online is still working to fit into its free-to-play niche, and by and large it seems like the field once again belongs to the City as it always has. And that runs a bit counter to my predictions from last year, doesn't it?
HP Android tablet coming later than you think, or not at all
Although nothing official has come from HP on this front, we got some pretty solid word back in April that the American giant was mulling an Android tablet. As it turns out, what with the WebOS acquisition that followed and HP's dogged commitment to Windows 7, that Googly project has apparently slipped out of the limelight in HP HQ. Word from All Things Digital is that there'll be nothing forthcoming this year (as was tentatively expected) and if an HP Android tablet is to materialize, it'll have to come in 2011. The company seems to be in the midst of reallocating resources to its higher priority projects, and who knows, should that rumored Hurricane tablet blow us all away, Android might never gets its chance to shine at all.
Gartner: Symbian is 're-arranging the deck chairs,' losing buoyancy fast
We all know that Symbian is still holding the fort as the globe's most widely used mobile OS, but anyone interested in criticizing it nowadays will have to get into a queue. Nick Jones from Gartner is latest to launch a broadside against the apparently complacent market leader, opining that its user experience has been surpassed by iOS and Android, and arguing that future iterations do not promise enough innovation to make the platform stand out. He underpins these observations with his firm's latest estimates, which indicate Symbian's decline in share is accelerating, before positing the idea that the Foundation sets aside some talent for skunkworks projects in order to give itself fallback options should Symbian^4 not be blindingly marvelous. Nick might be going a little overboard with the bleakness of his outlook, but there's no questioning his "Android iceberg" analogy -- if Symbian doesn't find the right course soon, Google might well end up collecting a big chunk of its exasperated users.
The Daily Grind: Half down, half to go
The start of July means that we're just about halfway through the year, and it also means some of the most major pieces of news have already come to light. We've had release dates announced, E3 has come and gone, and there's little else to do other than sit and watch as the next six months roll on. Of course, there's always the chance for a surprise announcement later -- but by and large, we've seen the shape of things, and we're just rounding out the dates now. So how have you been feeling about MMOs over the past six months? Has there been a game such as TERA or Final Fantasy XIV that captured your attention for this year or the next? Have you been disappointed with the news and new releases for the past several months? Or has it all felt like business as usual? And if you're feeling brave enough to predict the future, what do you think the next six months will bring? (We're betting on World of Warcraft: Cataclysm selling like hotcakes. Going out on a limb there.)
Adobe expects Flash on 250 million smartphones by end of 2012
While in the midst of fixing a unicorn-sized hole in the security of its desktop software, Adobe has been talking about its future in the mobile space. According to its rose-tinted forecasts, Flash Player will be featured in a quarter billion handsets by the end of 2012, including 53 percent of all smartphones shipped that year. Those are pretty strident words for a company that has yet to ship Flash Player 10.1 in even one new handset, but we're reminded that Android 2.2's leading position on the issue will be swiftly followed by BlackBerry OS, Symbian, webOS, and Windows Phone 7 supporting the full fat Flash experience. Whether all that momentum will be enough to produce an install base of 250 million, we don't know. What we do know, however, is that people want the blasted thing and Adobe had better start doing a bit more work on its mobile player and a little less talking about it -- that's what we're here for.
