Designer: Xbox 360 may take third-place

In his Designer's Notebook column, Ernest Adams compares the ways developers approach game design between the Wii and PS3. While well-argued, his analysis breaks down to input innovation (read: Wii) versus output innovation (read: PS3) that many writers have already considered. But in addition to that background, Adams tackles the question about how many -- and which -- consoles can succeed simultaneously. His tentative prediction: Wii and PS3 over the Xbox 360.

Adams thinks that the videogame market can support two consoles fighting for first place in addition to a distant third-place console. Nintendo has filled the third-place role since the N64, but because of the buzz and potential of the Nintendo's latest, Adams thinks that the Wii and the PS3 will lead the market. Why the snub for the Xbox 360? Its early launch may have hurt it more than anything, as techies will see the PS3 as the latest hardware, and casual gamers will like the variety and price-point of the Wii.

What about the games? The Microsoft lead has given its developers more time to take advantage of its hardware; the upcoming crop of Xbox 360 titles includes several standouts. Is that development time an important piece in selling hardware?

This article was originally published on Joystiq.