iPhone betting conundrum: you decide

Hapless tipster James bet his brother $150 last March that the Apple iPhone "would come out before March of 2007." He's apparently been talking the trash, especially with all the recent Macworld rumorings, but was dealt a low blow by Steve's announcement yesterday of a June availability. Now his bro wants him to pay up like the sucker he is, but James wants a second opinion. Does an announcement count for "out," or does James need to have one in his hands? Since we're still a little bleary eyed from Macworld and CES coverage, we've decided to pass the question on to you, oh insightful readers.