Entelligence: Netbooks, R.I.P.
by Michael Gartenberg 
posted Jun 23rd 2009 at 3:02PM
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide.
It's one of the hottest selling items in the consumer electronics market today. At a time when vendors are struggling to sell PCs, it's the one category that has been selling consistently in Amazon's top ten list of technology purchases. Apple and Sony have both dismissed the category, even as other vendors bring more models to market. Yes, I'm talking about the phenomenon called the netbook. Here's why I think it's going to be pretty short lived as a category.
"What's in a name?" Shakespeare asked, adding "a rose by any other name would smell as sweet." While some perceive the netbook as a new product category -- a class of device that's never existed -- I would have to beg to differ. A netbook is merely a laptop with the pivotal axis based on price first and foremost. In other words, "how much computer can I build for $300-500?" (which is about the average selling price of most netbooks). When Apple or Sony designs products, they look at what materials they want in a device. If it costs too much to deliver, it gets scrapped. If the materials are too shoddy to deliver at a price point, it gets scrapped. That's why we don't see netbooks from either vendor. At least... not yet.
Sure, my price-oriented definition might sound heretical to those who view the netbook as an ode to cloud computing, ubiquitous usage scenarios, and freedom from Microsoft OS tyranny, but that's not how the market has shaped out.
Let's look at history. At the end of 2007 a netbook (or laptop you could build for about $300-$500) had about a 7-inch screen, a tiny keyboard, about 4GB of storage, half a gig of RAM and no Windows OS (that Windows thing adds to price). Purists argued that the max screen size for a netbook was 7-inches. Fast forward to today: that same price point will deliver you a 10-inch screen or so, a gig of RAM and perhaps 160GB of storage. It also gets you a copy of Windows for the most part. By year's end, we'll see vendors offering 12-inch screens, full keyboards, and 300GB of storage. And they'll be called netbooks. But that doesn't matter, does it? Because that rose still smells the same -- no matter what we call it.
Sure, there are some folks who adopted netbooks as an additional PC or even a primary machine -- but the driver has consistently been price. Tiny, underpowered laptops have been around for more than a decade, but few people bought them because there was a premium price associated with them. As prices came down, capabilities
increased and more folks bought them. But not as netbooks -- rather as laptop replacements. The proof? Look at the sales and return rates of Linux netbooks vs. Windows-based ones. The vast majority of folks want Windows. The reason? It's their laptop replacement. No one carries a netbook and a laptop.
The cellphone and laptop represent the core part of a user's mobile experience. With most consumers willing to carry two devices total, there's not a lot of room for 'tweener devices. That's one reason vendors have worked so hard to increase netbook capabilities. The more they increase, the more they can displace the laptop for more users. Of course there's a downside. Netbooks use less horsepower than many other laptops. They ship with Windows XP (at least for now) instead of the more expensive Vista. That's why Intel and Microsoft are working hard to constrain the specifications of whatever's called a netbook. Of course, that won't work: technology moves at its own pace and no vendor can control it. That's why when I can get a nice 12-inch screen, with a full keyboard, a few hundred gigs of storage and a lot of RAM for $300-400 I won't care if it's called a netbook or a laptop. I'll just call it Moore's law in action.
Michael Gartenberg is vice president of strategy and analysis at Interpret, LLC. His weblog can be found at gartenblog.net. Contact him at Gartenberg@gmail.com Views expressed here are his own.
"What's in a name?" Shakespeare asked, adding "a rose by any other name would smell as sweet." While some perceive the netbook as a new product category -- a class of device that's never existed -- I would have to beg to differ. A netbook is merely a laptop with the pivotal axis based on price first and foremost. In other words, "how much computer can I build for $300-500?" (which is about the average selling price of most netbooks). When Apple or Sony designs products, they look at what materials they want in a device. If it costs too much to deliver, it gets scrapped. If the materials are too shoddy to deliver at a price point, it gets scrapped. That's why we don't see netbooks from either vendor. At least... not yet.
Sure, my price-oriented definition might sound heretical to those who view the netbook as an ode to cloud computing, ubiquitous usage scenarios, and freedom from Microsoft OS tyranny, but that's not how the market has shaped out.
Let's look at history. At the end of 2007 a netbook (or laptop you could build for about $300-$500) had about a 7-inch screen, a tiny keyboard, about 4GB of storage, half a gig of RAM and no Windows OS (that Windows thing adds to price). Purists argued that the max screen size for a netbook was 7-inches. Fast forward to today: that same price point will deliver you a 10-inch screen or so, a gig of RAM and perhaps 160GB of storage. It also gets you a copy of Windows for the most part. By year's end, we'll see vendors offering 12-inch screens, full keyboards, and 300GB of storage. And they'll be called netbooks. But that doesn't matter, does it? Because that rose still smells the same -- no matter what we call it.
Sure, there are some folks who adopted netbooks as an additional PC or even a primary machine -- but the driver has consistently been price. Tiny, underpowered laptops have been around for more than a decade, but few people bought them because there was a premium price associated with them. As prices came down, capabilities
"Tiny, underpowered laptops have been around for more than a decade, but few people bought them because there was a premium price associated with them." |
The cellphone and laptop represent the core part of a user's mobile experience. With most consumers willing to carry two devices total, there's not a lot of room for 'tweener devices. That's one reason vendors have worked so hard to increase netbook capabilities. The more they increase, the more they can displace the laptop for more users. Of course there's a downside. Netbooks use less horsepower than many other laptops. They ship with Windows XP (at least for now) instead of the more expensive Vista. That's why Intel and Microsoft are working hard to constrain the specifications of whatever's called a netbook. Of course, that won't work: technology moves at its own pace and no vendor can control it. That's why when I can get a nice 12-inch screen, with a full keyboard, a few hundred gigs of storage and a lot of RAM for $300-400 I won't care if it's called a netbook or a laptop. I'll just call it Moore's law in action.
Michael Gartenberg is vice president of strategy and analysis at Interpret, LLC. His weblog can be found at gartenblog.net. Contact him at Gartenberg@gmail.com Views expressed here are his own.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
Shenanigans @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:14PM
I suspect none of them care what YOU think.
Matthew @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:29PM
The thing I like most about netbooks is it makes my Macbook Pro look amazing after spending time on them.
Steve @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:12PM
"Apple and Sony have both dismissed the category..."
What are you talking about? Sony has a netbook. They have that little computer that fits in a large pocket that runs a full OS.
nvidiagtx @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:13PM
That's an MID honey..
Brdystyls @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:17PM
They do not call it a netbook, first off. Secondly it way above the $500 price point.
Sven Johannsen @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:34PM
Oh no, the P series is not a MID. A MID conjurs up significantly less capability than even a 'netbook' delivers. A Nokia N810 is a MID. The P series delivers more, with Vista standard (though that decision might be questionable) twice the normal RAM standard, higher res screen, BT, GPS, N wireless standard, and the ever-impeccable SONY quality. And it costs twice as much as a 'netbook'. That's why I think SONY doesn't sell 'netbooks'. Would Lexus build a small fuel efficient vehicle and call it a compact economy car? They couldn't sell it with that nomenclature at a Lexus price.
I respectfully disagree with the article premise. I think 'netbooks' are an attempt to make a device that can do what most people want to do, and is really portable to boot. Price is secondary. No, they aren't going to build one out of titanium and carbon fiber to get the weight done and charge $3K for it, but the idea is light, at a palatable price. We have been able to get $400-$500 15 laptops for some time, with more features (DVD, PCMCIA), but they are boat anchors. Ask anyone who regularly drags one back and forth to work, or is a road warrior, air or auto. I think they are here to stay, but I expect they will gradually increase in basic power, and start offering docking solutions like the old SONY R505 or Dell X200 where the dock becomes an integral part of the unit if you want it along.
allannguyen @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:46PM
Sven, I think he meant the UX
GRAMMAR POLICE @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:48PM
"They do not call it a netbook"
Oh, well, then it must not be one!
ScottishDan @ Jun 23rd 2009 6:30PM
@Sven Johannsen:
'Would Lexus build a small fuel efficient vehicle and call it a compact economy car?'
They already do, they call them Toyota's
rv @ Jun 23rd 2009 8:04PM
Sven: I carry a 15 Inch notebook around every day( hp dv5t). It is not a problem for me. In fact, I am very happy with the portability. I dont see how someone can be so inconvenienced with a full laptop. If you carry a briefcase or backpack, the laptop fits right in, which is probably the same way you would carry a netbook.
Simon @ Jun 24th 2009 3:47AM
"Sven: I carry a 15 Inch notebook around every day( hp dv5t). It is not a problem for me. In fact, I am very happy with the portability. I dont see how someone can be so inconvenienced with a full laptop. If you carry a briefcase or backpack, the laptop fits right in, which is probably the same way you would carry a netbook."
As someone who used to own a 15.4" Acer Aspire, is currently typing from a 10" EeePC, and is waiting for his new 15.4" Thinkpad in the mail right now, I can safely say that a 15.4" laptop is a _huge_ hassle in terms of weight and size, especially if you travel with public transportation.
Oh, and did I mention the battery life? The EeePC (even this old one) gets 7 hours with low screen brightness and wifi on the _standard_ battery. The Thinkpad I just ordered will be lucky to get 5 with the _extended_ 9-cell battery...
Brian @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:12PM
So basically, netbooks are going to become cheap laptops. Then we'll start making even cheaper and even smaller laptops and before you know it, we'll all be carrying around either a UMPC or a smartphone.
Markarian @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:43PM
I have to express my concerns about the whole netbook thing. One thing this article completely failed to take into account was the issue of size. I was drawn to netbooks not just because of their price, but because of their size. Until the Asus EEE came along, a sub-notebook of that same size cost close to $2000. Now that I see most netbooks shipping with 10-12" screens, I feel disappointed, because I think my 9" netbook is wonderfully small. It fits in my bag and I use it every day. I just hope they'll keep making cheap, tiny laptops.
GadgetGeek @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:59PM
Why on earth would I listen to a person who is obviously NOT well versed in technology. I've been supporting PC's for over a decade and I will tell you right now it's NOT all about the price point. Yes, the $300-$500 price point mentioned does add to the lure of the netbook, but it's truly the "SIZE", and BATTERY life and then the price point that put's this in a category by itself. Notebooks can and will go over the $500 range (i.e. adding GPS, 3G, Touch Screen etc...). I can almost guarantee if some manufacturer added all three said components to a "NetBook" for a premium price, it would still fly of the shelves! This article was written by a tech 'enthusiast' not someone in the tech sector.
Chuckles McGee @ Jun 23rd 2009 4:06PM
@Mark
No. As the author mentions, netbook sized units with comparable battery life have been around for a long time. It's only when the price reached this point did the netbook take off.
Clyde Berry @ Jun 23rd 2009 4:27PM
"before you know it, we'll all be carrying around either a UMPC or a smartphone."
And they'll still argue over what it should be called. A cell-top? A lap-phone? A net-lap-cell-phone-book-top?
GadgetGeek @ Jun 23rd 2009 4:52PM
@Chuckles
Sorry but you can buy laptops that cost under $500 and I don't see them flying off the shelves. Yes smaller systems have been around for a long time but were either way to slow for normal use, or way to overpriced for the average Joe(Sorry but I haven't seen many systems back then that could handle a 10 hour battery life...). Consumers want a balance of form, function, and price point. Something we haven't seen since the dawn of the term Netbook. Period.
@ Clyde
I've had smartphones in the past and sorry but they are horrible at surfing the web. UMPC's are just too small to do anything with.
OneLove @ Jun 23rd 2009 5:17PM
I don't care what you call it! A netbook is still a laptop, computer, notebook, pc to me.
Just make sure its compact, light, 100GB+ storage, wifi, bluetooth+edr, 2+ usb, hdmi, speakers, mic, multi-touch, bright 10.1 screen, 2 GB memory, webcam, card reader, good CPU, 6+ hour battery and plays HD content...
...$400 and i will buy it and put windows 7 on it.
Yuki @ Jun 23rd 2009 7:08PM
Many people are replacing their laptops with netbooks.
Back in december my main laptop died and i decided that I didnt need gaming, so opted for a netbook.
The problem is that many consumers have not clue what a netbook is. They think its a small computer that they can play hd movies on and graphic intense games on.
But thats not true so they buy it thinking they can do all these thigns when they can't.
It was a good price but its not a full netbook.
This is were ion base netbooks will pick up there markets from.
Confused consumers will see an ion netbook and wont know it from an non-ion based one.
So more confusion.
to me a netbook is whatever the hell you want it to be.
They can ever sport a 17in screen.
Good day
Here come the attacks.
nikster @ Jun 23rd 2009 9:05PM
Nah, "netbooks" are currently growing in size, not shrinking. The first netbook was a revelation because previous iterations cost $2000+
The fact of the matter is that there will be a range of laptops available, with screen sizes from 9" - 17", which use the cheapest available Intel or AMD processor and chipset and cost $300 - $400. It seems like we have arrived at the sweet spot where the OS does all that most users need, and that OS is Windows XP and it runs fine on those cheapo processors. Too bad for Microsoft and Intel who want to sell you more expensive operating systems/processors.
Whether you call 'em cheap laptops or netbooks doesn't matter at all.
Apple and Sony will have to get on the bandwagon. The times when a mainstream laptop cost $1500 are officially over. And I am saying that typing on a very nice $3000 MacBook Pro unibody.
notwithnucleararms @ Jun 24th 2009 1:06AM
If I may say so, this was probably the worst article I've ever read on Engadget. This guy sounds like a some how less in touch Wal Mossberg. I've been reading this site since I was in high school. Don't start bringing in second rate journalists with zippy headlines that don't back it up with shit.
Wii60 @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:12PM
Everyone has their own need for a netbook. I use mine in auditoriums where there isn't enough space for a full on laptop, and I used to use it as an in car navigator/pc. That's worth the price of admission for me, and there are other specific needs a netbook addresses. However, I think the primary reason people buy them is novelty, and later they collect dust.
What they really need to do is go back to the original goal of the eee pc and make a sub-200 dollar netbook. That will drive the novelty sales again.
Mike Cerm @ Jun 23rd 2009 6:55PM
They still make and sell the EeePC 900 and 901, and I've seen them on sale as a few places recently for $150-200.
Lance S @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:14PM
Wrong. It's about not weighing 20 lbs, and having an all day battery life.
GadgetGeek @ Jun 23rd 2009 4:03PM
agreed
Juaquin @ Jun 23rd 2009 4:44PM
I see what he's saying about netbooks starting to blur the lines between cheap laptop and true netbook, but the fact is that a good 9-10" netbook will always remain, and it will always be a true netbook.
I also disagree that netbooks are being used to replace primary laptops. Netbooks are used for when a real laptop would be overkill - for instance, you want to go out for the day and might want to do some light browsing and email while traveling around. You need something light with a battery that will last all day and doesn't need a lot of horsepower. Leave your macbook behind and take the netbook. Netbooks are secondary laptops - and why not, at their price?
I sincerely doubt anyone is trying to replace their real laptop with a netbook, and if so, it probably isn't working out well for them.
Cy Starkman @ Jun 23rd 2009 6:56PM
@juaquin
but if u are right and it's about light web and email. Why a netbook? I used my motorola v6 and nokia 6120 for this and neither were even "smart phones", now I use an iPhone. Try and suggest a phone over a netbook in these forums and see what happens to you. People seem quite clear about being able to edit/create work on their 9" screens.
Clearly a replacement for their laptop and even desktop. Though it says a lot about the user and their "work"
Mike Cerm @ Jun 23rd 2009 7:16PM
I replaced my real laptop with a netbook. I downgraded from a 2GHz Core 2 Duo with 2GB of RAM, to an Atom N270 with 1GB. I did that because EVERYTHING that I want to do on a laptop can be done on a netbook. When I need to do real work (mostly to do with audio or video), I have a desktop PC for that. I only really want a netbook/laptop for browsing, email, and light-use, and so I can VNC-into my desktop when I need something from there.
I expect that most people don't really use laptops for anything that requires the power of most full-sized laptops. Normal people need a laptop to browse Facebook and YouTube, and maybe play a Flash game or two. That's pretty much it. If normal people have any complaint about a netbook, it's not the speed, it's "How do I play a DVD?", or it's, "How can you see anything on such a small screen?"
bebop @ Jun 23rd 2009 8:49PM
I choose my netbook over my notebook 95% of the time. For the size and weight, and because the netbook is "good enough" to do what I need it to. The exception is when I really need all the screen size/resolution I can get, and there's no external monitor to plug a netbook into, that's about the only time these days I'm forced to lug around my Thinkpad T60.
Guest @ Jun 23rd 2009 10:59PM
I agree that netbooks are good for surfing, emailing/IM'ing, and the occasional word processing document, but not all people use their notebooks for just those purposes. I needed a machine that could do really heavy movie editing and extremely graphics-intensive things, but I needed to carry it everywhere as well. As I cannot afford a tiny netbook AND a desktop I chose to settle on a 13" laptop and beefed up all the specs to make it a portable desktop replacement. Netbooks won't really go away because there is still a need by a good percentage of people for just those tasks. There is good reasoning in making them, because kids and seniors do not need a $4000 MacBook Pro 17" with a 3.06 GHz processor, 8GB RAM, and a 500GB HD to use Facebook and watch Youtube. They would be the ones at which the netbook is targeted. For the students and businesspeople who use every ounce of processor power, every byte of RAM, and every GB of their hard drive for their job, the netbook would not be a practical idea. However, the percentage of the "ideal netbook market" as described above would be enough that they will continue to sell millions of those tiny little computers to that market.
jbodar @ Jun 23rd 2009 11:27PM
Right. It's the Atom CPU that made netbooks happen. Previously, low-priced notebooks either had gimp Celerons or were just older models with last gen parts (Core Duo, anyone?). Atom has enough horsepower for what people want to do, yet is easy on the battery and the wallet. Combine that with low RAM prices, and it's the perfect storm for a low-priced, decently-endowed netbook. Buying a low-priced notebook isn't really "settling for low-end" as it had been before.
Jon Briggs @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:16PM
Could not agree more. As someone who 3 sitting here we have tried these as the owner of my company. 2 thing... either they could have done it on their smart phone or it took a more powerful laptop to do it. Either way it did not justify the cost. I watch these netbooks bought all the time at Bestbuy and i hear them saying that this is going to do what a laptop does. Buyers remorse is the name of the game here. Apple and Sony are right.
justit @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:20PM
What's wrong is "saying that this is going to do what a laptop does"
.... long live netbooks, and owners that know how to use them.
NOCknock @ Jun 23rd 2009 5:26PM
No, Apple and Sony are not right. They are two companies that overcharge for products that you can get of equal value elsewhere for less. Asus and the like have already cornered the market on netbooks and Sony and Apple won't get into the business of producing something that they can't charge you out of the ass for such as a $300 netbook.
Justin @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:15PM
What a meh article.
webmastir @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:29PM
AGREED. Pointless IMO.
loocas @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:27PM
I actually thought it was a very well written and mainly well thought off cogitation.
Alan Strangis @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:38PM
Yeah, pretty weak overall, since he totally ignored the reasons why netbook users pick them over full blown laptops.
Never trust a person who wants a New York bagel when they can have a Montreal bagel. Infinitely better. :)
Skeezle @ Jun 23rd 2009 4:01PM
Forget the bagel stuff, never trust a person who was a 'Microsoft Evangelist'
http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/02/15/microsoft-hires-michael-gartenberg-as-new-evangelist/
Funny that so many people here think Engadget has an Apple bias, yet they have this guy on the payroll!
Alan Strangis @ Jun 23rd 2009 4:38PM
Forget the bagel stuff? Never! :)
Aaron @ Jun 23rd 2009 5:06PM
Agreed. I have both a full-power laptop (MacBook Pro) and a netbook (Dell Mini 9 running Ubuntu). They both have uses with me.
I love the full-power laptop when I need to do video editing work, graphics work, burning DVDs, etc. I love the netbook when I travel to countries where it's more likely that my computer will get stolen or damaged, but I still need the power of a true computer.
big teeth @ Jun 23rd 2009 5:23PM
Eh.. this is almost certainly MS FUD being seeded before Windows 7 comes out. They are probably going to mount a campaign to deflect criticism of the crapped on version of that OS for netbooks..
Josh @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:15PM
what's the vaio p again? a mid?
Jon Briggs @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:19PM
very good point. That little runt is a netbook!
Brdystyls @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:18PM
They class it as a laptop.
CreepinJesus @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:25PM
Well you do use it from your lap...
Joshh @ Jun 23rd 2009 3:32PM
but it can go on the net!
Podaman @ Jun 23rd 2009 4:34PM
and it's about the size of a book!
Monkey with glasses @ Jun 23rd 2009 5:01PM
Than it's a netlap, settle?
Now onto more important posts...as long it's not an apple product.
Ruben @ Jun 23rd 2009 7:15PM
Considering its as wide as a pamphlet is long, I christen it a Netphlet.