Entelligence: iSlate or just uWish?
By Michael Gartenberg 
posted December 28th 2009 6:30PM
posted December 28th 2009 6:30PM
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide.
Harry McCracken has a great post on Technologizer reviewing the tremendous buzz around the iPhone right before it launched -- it was about three years ago at this time that rumors were swirling around Apple getting into the phone market. All sorts of predictions had been made for years, dating back to a 2002 New York Times piece in which John Markoff said "Mr. Jobs means to take Apple back to the land of the handhelds, but this time with a device that would combine elements of a cellphone and a Palm -like personal digital assistant." Of course, it took until 2007 for Apple to announce the iPhone and nearly six months longer for Apple to actually ship it.
The rumors of Apple doing a phone back then were at about the same fever pitch of the recent Apple tablet rumors. Like the iPhone, the tablet rumors aren't at all new -- in this case we can go back to 2003 for some of the earliest stories about this mythical device. Will Apple introduce a tablet in 2010, as some predict? Will there be in an introduction in January? What features might it have, and how could it be sold and positioned? I'm not going to speculate on those things for two reasons: first, if I don't know, my guess is as good as yours -- and second, if I do know, I probably couldn't tell you anything, could I? Having said that, I find it remarkable that the latest tablet buzz so closely echoes the run-up to the iPhone. Call it déjà vu all over again.
First, while many people were expecting a phone from Apple. and most folks had anticipated the iPhone name, almost all the rumored and predicted details of the phone were wrong. It's human nature: we tend to try and take the known and fit it into the unknown. That's why so many early iPhone mockups tended to look like an iPod nano with a dialer and perhaps some sort of Front Row UI to make it all work. Nothing could have been further than the truth. The tablet rumors of are similarly contradictory. Some say it's a seven-inch device, while others claim it's 10 inches. Some argue for two models. One version claims it's a traditional OS X device with a Tablet PC-like user experience; others swear it's nothing more than a 10-inch iPod touch. I'll wager that should Apple actually announce a tablet device, any and all of those things will be as correct as they are wrong -- and all at the same time.
Second, there's normally a huge amount of rumors this time of year due the proximity of Macworld Expo, where Apple traditionally introduced new products. But that's all over -- Apple pulled out of Macworld last year, and will not participate in this year's event. Even still, what's amazing is without a defined presence at Macworld, a keynote at CES, or even a date of any announcement Apple has once again already managed to overshadow all of CES with just the barest rumor of a new device in the wings.
Similarly, Apple's already garnered more mindshare about such a device than competitors who have both shipping and announced products, all without announcing anything at all. I'm not just talking the insular blogosphere, either -- in the last week alone the New York Times, The Financial Times, and the Wall Street Journal all have done stories on this mythic Apple device, all for the most part ignoring shipping or announced devices from Lenovo, Toshiba, JooJoo and Archos. One article even suggested that Microsoft has already ceded the market to Apple in terms of dominance.
I've talked in the past about the market for MIDs and other 'tweener devices and just how hard it is to bring those products to market successfully. Devices that fall between the phone and laptop have not historically done well -- not even remotely well. A larger iPod touch or a small MacBook with a touch screen is simply not the next big thing for Apple -- the goal is to appeal to 50 million customers, not 50 thousand. Perhaps that's why there's so much mystery: what we're waiting for isn't another failed 'tweener device but something as different from what came before as the iPhone was to previous mobile phones.
Perhaps Apple indeed has a different take on this space. Perhaps there is an iSlate, as the latest rumors call it, but perhaps like many other long-desired and never-seen Apple products over the years (remember the iWalk?) the iSlate may just be uWish.
Michael Gartenberg is vice president of strategy and analysis at Interpret, LLC. His weblog can be found at gartenblog.net. Contact him at gartenberg AT gmail DOT com. Views expressed here are his own.
The rumors of Apple doing a phone back then were at about the same fever pitch of the recent Apple tablet rumors. Like the iPhone, the tablet rumors aren't at all new -- in this case we can go back to 2003 for some of the earliest stories about this mythical device. Will Apple introduce a tablet in 2010, as some predict? Will there be in an introduction in January? What features might it have, and how could it be sold and positioned? I'm not going to speculate on those things for two reasons: first, if I don't know, my guess is as good as yours -- and second, if I do know, I probably couldn't tell you anything, could I? Having said that, I find it remarkable that the latest tablet buzz so closely echoes the run-up to the iPhone. Call it déjà vu all over again.
First, while many people were expecting a phone from Apple. and most folks had anticipated the iPhone name, almost all the rumored and predicted details of the phone were wrong. It's human nature: we tend to try and take the known and fit it into the unknown. That's why so many early iPhone mockups tended to look like an iPod nano with a dialer and perhaps some sort of Front Row UI to make it all work. Nothing could have been further than the truth. The tablet rumors of are similarly contradictory. Some say it's a seven-inch device, while others claim it's 10 inches. Some argue for two models. One version claims it's a traditional OS X device with a Tablet PC-like user experience; others swear it's nothing more than a 10-inch iPod touch. I'll wager that should Apple actually announce a tablet device, any and all of those things will be as correct as they are wrong -- and all at the same time.
Second, there's normally a huge amount of rumors this time of year due the proximity of Macworld Expo, where Apple traditionally introduced new products. But that's all over -- Apple pulled out of Macworld last year, and will not participate in this year's event. Even still, what's amazing is without a defined presence at Macworld, a keynote at CES, or even a date of any announcement Apple has once again already managed to overshadow all of CES with just the barest rumor of a new device in the wings.
A larger iPod touch or a small MacBook with a touch screen is simply not the next big thing for Apple -- the goal is to appeal to 50 million customers, not 50 thousand. |
Similarly, Apple's already garnered more mindshare about such a device than competitors who have both shipping and announced products, all without announcing anything at all. I'm not just talking the insular blogosphere, either -- in the last week alone the New York Times, The Financial Times, and the Wall Street Journal all have done stories on this mythic Apple device, all for the most part ignoring shipping or announced devices from Lenovo, Toshiba, JooJoo and Archos. One article even suggested that Microsoft has already ceded the market to Apple in terms of dominance.
I've talked in the past about the market for MIDs and other 'tweener devices and just how hard it is to bring those products to market successfully. Devices that fall between the phone and laptop have not historically done well -- not even remotely well. A larger iPod touch or a small MacBook with a touch screen is simply not the next big thing for Apple -- the goal is to appeal to 50 million customers, not 50 thousand. Perhaps that's why there's so much mystery: what we're waiting for isn't another failed 'tweener device but something as different from what came before as the iPhone was to previous mobile phones.
Perhaps Apple indeed has a different take on this space. Perhaps there is an iSlate, as the latest rumors call it, but perhaps like many other long-desired and never-seen Apple products over the years (remember the iWalk?) the iSlate may just be uWish.
Michael Gartenberg is vice president of strategy and analysis at Interpret, LLC. His weblog can be found at gartenblog.net. Contact him at gartenberg AT gmail DOT com. Views expressed here are his own.
All these posts about the "rumored iSlate, and not a single one about my port of the Hero Sense UI to the cliq. Was there even a mention of the cliq being rooted?
Engadget, your bias is showing :)
http://modmymoto.com/forums/showthread.php?t=526643
Check it out. Sense + Cliq = heaven.
@Kmobs damn engadget comment system... so glitchy.
@Kmobs Well, I haven't heard of that news, but there was an article of the cliq being rooted.
@Kmobs
http://www.engadget.com/2009/12/23/motorola-cliq-gets-rooted-by-the-dude?icid=sphere_blogsmith_inpage_engadget
All of these posts about the rumored "iSlate" and not a single one about the progress that is being made on the moto Cliq front.
I don't even think that the fact that it has been rooted was mentioned. Regardless, I am working on a port of Hero to the Cliq. I already have the rom up and running.
Check it out: Sense UI + the Cliq = heaven.
modmymoto.com/forums/showthread.php?t=526643
That lucky guy in the picture is holding the Apple Tablet :O
@Exbloder
He's really in love with the Unicorn. He enjoys stroking it's horn. Tom has a lot in common with Steve. They're both into theatrics.
It won't run windows 7 so I do give a flying...
*do = DON'T* comment fail. :)
What about all the rumors of new iPods? I just got an email from Buy.com with real bargains on current iPod and iPod Touch.
Also:
"Call it déjà vu all over again."
Wait a minute, wasn't that Yogi Bear's (or was that Yogi Berra's) line?
@cullenmaximus I concur, if they really is gonna be any success from this it has to be some type of show stopper. The techniques they rumored having with tactile feedback seems a bit worthwhile, but other that it's just more apple gossip of enlarged iphone.
@Rick36 What this article pointing out is simple, a prime-moving gadget – does look really futile at first (before the release) but once the users manage to harness its features.. Behold, it’ll became phenomenal.
The only caveat for iSlate a.k.a apple tablet is this: To settle that buzz like what they did to iPod/iPhone is to set a new technological-standards that the tablet industry can’t resist on following. Much like infusing a ‘minority like 3D technology’ on a tablet, more on the details about iSlate: http://bit.ly/new-apple-tablet-best-or-worst
Deja Vu indeed - Cullen, Maximus
iWill certainly not be needing this therefore I will certainly not be buying this.
But I bet a lot of people who don't need it still buy it.
@Javindo
It's early for any judgement for this device. I hope it is finally announced so the tech world can move on and look at real products. Apple make good stuff (I own some), but this amount of hype is inexplicable...
@Javindo Well, it wouldn't be an Apple product if people bought it because they needed it...
@michaelwub what do you mean it's "too early to make a judgment"?What we know is that it's going to be a tablet device, an Apple product or not - but for some people (including myself) have absolutely no need for a tablet. I have a perfectly adequate laptop and a smartphone for my portable device needs
@Javindo
It's possible that they sell 50 million iSlates
IF iTunes Book Store does for print media what iTunes Music Store has done for music (which it absolutely will, if they open it up to all devices)
IF it's thinner and sexier than any 10inch tablet in existence (which it absolutely will be, no doubt about it, though the bar isn't exactly set high right now).
IF it has an optional wireless/attachable (think magnetic) keyboard that effectively turns it into a macbook, in addition to an automatic kickstand on the device which turns it into a picture frame form factor
IF it does handwriting as well as it does finger presses
IF Apple develops a 2 handed, 10 finger multitouch QWERTY keyboard with predictive input that's smart enough for you to be able to confidently type without ever having to look down at the "keys"
IF they introduce 1080p output
IF It's offered in 3G variety for $599 on contract or less, and decreasing to $99 on contract, 2 years later (same as iPhone)
Gartenberg's right. It'll be the iPhone all over again, if they play it right. Everyone's all hung up on hard specs, when they mean the least of anything. Something new and exciting, something sexy with amazing user experience, and groundbreaking features are what sells devices, not a blah blah ghz blah blah blah.
@DarkElfa "I don't know why anyone would buy this."
Have you been to the Apple's R&D labs and played around with the tablet to know what it is and thus be so certain? That's right, you haven't. So you have no clue what this tablet is or what it can do; Apple has said zero about it so the only fool I see is you for making conclusions on something you don't know about.
@DarkElfa nah, I don't think good old Steve is that dumb. The iPhone did something different and and provided a user experience, that can't compare with other smart phones at the time.
I think he is planning the same thing. Do something extraordinarily different and fulfill the worlds starving teet. Ease of access, and overall experience, with a bump of the "Oh wow" is all they are gonna need to make huge sales.
NO matter what Jobs restricts, people won't know better, (they didn't before) because it will be flashy and so newww. :)
This is the point. If you have an iPhone and a laptop, you don't need a fucking "tablet". Just another device to manage, to sync with all your contacts, documents, and other "must-have" shit.
Apple is counting on all the idiots generating this hype to buy one of these things that they don't need, and Apple will win, and it will become another "successful Apple device", but more like another successful Apple con. They're giving people something they don't know they need yet, but will know the minute they have it in their hands.
Too bad no one with a smartphone and a laptop (read: 99% of people who would want this) will ever need this.
@yokken Ya, I have both, and I don't see the need for this...but we could all be wrong...., when it turns out the tablet...., can perform fellatio....
@yyandrew
I meant what I said. Look at the post below you for more clarification. It could be the swiss army knife of tablets or it could just be a huge flop. It could double up as an e-reader, or it could just be a larger iPod touch. Who knows? I'll wait until it's out to decide if I need one or even really want one.
@yokken Sounds familier. I remember when people said that when the iPhone came out. Who's gonna buy that but apple fanboys? Now look at it. Because of the iPhone "apple fan boys" have dramatically increased. And now the "apple fan boys" are gonna help boost this product if it ever comes out. And due to the current fan boys, it's only gonna catch on to others that arn't as of today.
iSlate is just a terrible name, but will become as synonymous as the iPod this decade.
More like who the f**k care?!
@CJ100570
Jesus.
@CJ100570 - Seriously. iPuke.
@CJ100570 seems like you cared enough to click on this article and leave a comment. Fantastic.
I find it funny how tech sites like Engadger talk about "all this buzz and hype about the iSlate" when they alone are the ones generating ALL of it. Really.. this is because its an apple product "all this buzz and hype" is being generated.
@Ioncloud9 Couldn't agree more.
@Ioncloud9
So true. Who's really waiting for iSlate? I'd go for something like Adam if I can find one in 2-3 months ... Joojoo is too expensive and inadequate (in terms of battery life, for home I have laptops and outdoors I need battery).
@Ioncloud9 amen, amen. couldn't have said it better myself
@Ioncloud9
Uh, I think after a little digging you'll find the the New York Times and Engadget are not quite on the same level.
@Wesscoast Yes but thats talking about a rumor, unlike the 20 odd posts about rumors about rumors and who is supplying what parts when, where, and why.. how many orders supposedly exist. I mean, really.. how is this thing even useful to the average consumer? Oh wait, they didnt think about that while they were talking this thing up.
@Wesscoast NYT reported on it because all the tech blogs reported on it. otherwise they wouldn't have.
@Ioncloud9
Well, yes. If Acer were rumoured to be launching a tablet there'd be very little hype. That's because Acer aren't an established design powerhouse and proven industry game changer. Apple generate hype because they've already launched one extremely disruptive device in the last 3 years. The iPhone was absolutely seismic in the Mobile industry; every manufacturer since then has tried to emulate it in one way or another. They may - or may not - be capable of doing it again and so they are worth the hype.
I don't read this column anymore, after a series of severe disappointments with the level of rational thinking and the sophistication of the arguments. I just wanted to post this comment with the hope that someone will stop this column from taking up space on the blog.
@cobaltage
I read it, but I agree that it needs to go away. It never has something new to bring to the table. I know some of the Engadget readers would do a better job with their own column.
@cobaltage
and yet, here you are commenting on it. You're either a troll or a griefer who contributes nothing to the discussion.
@(Unverified) (@Zamboni) No, I'm trying to be honest here. I spent so much time arguing against one or two previous articles in this column, that now I wince internally when I see a new one. I don't want to read them because I know I'll probably get worked up and spend 30 minutes constructing some counterargument, again. So I just wanted to post this one time and to be straightforward about the fact that I didn't read the article in particular. On the one hand, this column generates a lot of comments. On the other, many if not most of them are posted in disagreement with the article.
I understand that it seems kind of troll-like, which is why I'm only going to do this this one time. But I did want to express the view that I don't know why Engadget would devote the space to an invited author in a regular column when so many people disagree with what he has to say, whereas Engadget's regular writers don't engender that level of disagreement.
/end transmission
"I'll wager that should Apple actually announce a tablet device, any and all of those things will be as correct as they are wrong -- and all at the same time."
What? Don't write line after line just for the sake of writing, you are wasting our time. And another useless post about a rumor where you complain about useless posts about a rumor...
Holy shit, not another iTablet story. I think that all this hype is just going to begin the Apple backlash, if such a device even exists.
What happened to the hide/show replies to posts in the comments? That was a great new feature. :(
This is the computer I wanted in college, back in 1990. touch screen, soft keyboard, thin, light, networked.
I didn't know about cloud computing, and was used to a 16 Mb Dic^H^H Diskless Vax, but that didn't stop me having a genetic disposition to something like this.
If Apple doesn't do it, someone will, and if there's enough Secret Sauce, it'll change everything.
I exited Chrome and opened Mozilla just so I could use the StumbleUpon Toolbar.
"NO MORE LIKE THIS"
What does Michael Gartenberg know. I will debut the tablet when I want, and when I do the tech world will bow to me. Every tech CEO will be kicked in the balls and sent back 15 years because of the tech I am going to display.
@Steve Jobs CEO
You're so crazy, I think i wanna have your baby.
@Steve Jobs CEO
Will it have cut and paste?
@Steve Jobs CEO
ps. Other religions don't have nothing on you...
You're my only GOD \0/
@Steve Jobs CEO
Steve, nobody cares what you have to say.