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In-Stat sees Blu-ray players closing in on DVD sales in 2013
While Futuresource may still be sticking to its 2012 predictions of Blu-ray software dominance, In-Stat has taken a break from the tea leaves to mention it expects Blu-ray player sales to near 80 million by 2013. In its vision of the near-future that's not enough to overtake DVD player sales of 90 million, but with a higher average selling price Blu-ray players will own most of the dollars being spent. Naturally, Blu-ray recorders (and, we'd expect Blu-ray/VHS combos) are most popular in Japan, while Europe produces the most revenue for players. We're not ready to lay down $3,495 to find out more detailed forecasts, but we'll put a pin in the calendar and ask Jeremy Toeman to save the date for our 2013 podcast about whether or not Blu-ray sales have lived up to expectations.
Forget HDTV and 3D, when is Ultra HDTV / Super Hi-vision coming home?
Not willing to make predictions about the future of HDTV with all the other analysts, In-Stat has jumped ahead with its latest report, a peek at the future of Ultra High Definition (though the kids are calling it Super Hi-Vision these days.) We'd heard the 8K / 4K broadcasts could flip on as early as 2015, but this report pegs 2017 - 2022 as a more likely time period, with the expectation that 28.2% of European households will be sporting the 22.2-channel audio spec by 2025. Of course, if you must be first on the block with it, there's always JVC's $175k DLA-RS4000 available right now.
Survey says consumer won't pay that much extra for 3D
You know what the least accurate type of survey is? One where you ask someone what they'd pay for something, because we don't know about anyone else, but the answer is almost always, "as little as possible." So it isn't much of a shocker that when asked, only 43 percent of those interested in 3D at home, said they're willing to spend an extra $200 for a 3D capable HDTV. Of that same group who actually wants 3D, only 33 percent would be willing to spend an extra $50 on a 3D capable Blu-ray player -- no clue why these two numbers aren't the same, guess the respondents didn't think about where the 3D content would come from. Although these numbers aren't encouraging, we wonder if a similar survey was ever conducted for 1080p HDTVs. We say that because at this point most consumers wouldn't think about buying a 720p HDTV and 3D is a much bigger upgrade.
85 percent of the 14 billion videos downloaded last year were illegal
A new report from In-Stat indicates what we already suspected; because of the ridiculous DRM on digital downloads, most people are opting to obtain content illegally. Consumers will come up with just about any justification because the current offerings from Hollywood are just way too draconian to buy in to. For us that is good news and we can't wait for the video industry to follow the music's lead and give up on all of this overly complicated DRM, that really just doesn't work. Like us, In-Stat believes that watermarking will become the preferred way to control the distribution of digital content. It really is win-win because while consumers are free to use the content as they deem fit, it is very easy for Hollywood to catch up with them if they decide to share it with the whole world.
Gaming consoles lead in web-to-TV streaming
In-Stat, a market analysis group, published a report this week which takes a look at how online video-to-television streaming is putting pressure on traditional cable providers and will eventually restructure "today's video distribution ecosystem." As noted by In-Stat, gaming consoles are at the forefront of this new direction, leading in web-based video streaming and beating other devices like digital media adapters, set top boxes (Apple TV), Blu-ray players, web-connected HDTVs and even PC media-centers. Indeed, current gen consoles hold many advantages over the competition, seeing as they're relatively inexpensive and serve multiple purposes. The Xbox 360 has supported Netflix streaming since late last year, and both PS3 and Wii feature internet browsers (additionally, the PS3 allows for YouTube uploads on some software). In-Stat claims 29% of US console owners between the ages of 25 and 34 currently use their consoles to stream video to their televisions. In-Stat expects consoles to stay as the top device for at least the next five years. As long as people know they can still stream pr0n on their consoles, we're sure it will.[Via Gamespot]
802.11n to dominate the wireless HD wars, says In-Stat
Industry watchers In-Stat didn't mention which variant of WiFi based HD streaming it expects to win out, but just based on the install base 802.11n should be the leader. UWB? DOA. WHDI and WirelessHD? Too expensive, too power hungry, too new. WiFi isn't perfect however, requiring codec support on either end to work with HD video but that's not expected to hold back the 25 million TVs with wireless hardware In-Stat sees shipping by 2013, but for the rest of the details you'll need $3,495 for the research report or a time machine.[Via TG Daily]
Report: Xbox Live to generate $1B annually by 2013
A research report from In-Stat predicts Xbox Live will generate a billion dollars annually by 2013. According to Edge, Microsoft announced last July that it had reached the billion dollar mark since launching the service in 2006. The $1 billion estimate includes advertising, download revenue and subscriptions.In-Stat believes that all three current console manufacturers will continue staking out an online strategy to "generate incremental revenue and promote brand loyalty." Considering there's a growing theory that we may not have many more console generations, figuring out a stable online platform is probably best for all parties.
Are you watching TV and reading this at the same time? In-Stat survey says probably
Wonder why TV manufacturers are so happy to jam the Internet into TV sets? A recent In-Stat survey reveals that synchronizing the web and TV programming could be key going forward, since so many people (up to 50% of men and 30% of women, depending on age group) already watch TV while using a computer. They'll need to figure something out to keep customers attention, with results also indicating that around 15% of consumers plan to cut back on subscription TV, Internet and mobile services over the next year, which could trim up to $5 billion in revenue. Of course, you'll have to drop $3,495 to find out more about TV viewing habits including consumer interest in Internet TV services, so we wouldn't be surprised to see the pay TV execs that cough up for this kind of data put it to use sooner rather than later.
Research says WiMAX and LTE will live different lives, coexist
Thinking that there's only room in this town world for either WiMAX or LTE? Research firm In-Stat would love to disagree, as a new report from it asserts that both will actually live on for at least the next little while. Unsurprisingly, it's expected that mobile WiMAX will "outpace LTE over the next few years due to its head start on deployments," and potentially more importantly, the company believes that WiMAX and LTE will take "very different paths." In fact, it's stated that most WiMAX support will come from fixed network carriers looking to spruce up their existing offerings, while LTE expansion will likely be pushed solely (or mostly, anyway) by mobile operators. To us, it all boils down to support, and it only takes a quick survey of the field to see that LTE has the most of that. For better or worse, it seems the next-gen data war is but beginning, even though we already thought we were nearing the end.
HDMI saturates HDTVs, moving onto PMPs, STBs, etc.
We already heard late last year that HDMI adoption was on the rise, and now a new report from In-Stat asserts that the famed port is just about ready to take other areas of consumer electronics by storm. With HDMI adoption reaching nearly 100 percent in HDTVs, it's expected that 85 percent of IPTV set-top-boxes will have an HDMI port by 2012, while 10 percent of portable media players can say the same in just under three years. Also of note, HDMI-enabled product shipments are expected to increase overall at an annual rate of 23 percent up until 2012, while DVI-enabled shipments are forecast to decline at an annual rate of 30 percent through the same year. Ah, the unavoidable passing of the torch, so to speak.
Analyst: Game consoles are most Internet connected STB, but Blu-ray players will lead growth
Wondering about the progress of the "connected home" so effectively diagrammed above? In-Stat's got the numbers, noting that by June 2008, nearly 43% of U.S. Windows PCs were of the Media Center variety, and found 64% of respondents at least somewhat interested in streaming video from the Internet to their TV. As it is, it looks like getting your Internet video service onto a game console is the best move (you don't say?) since they're the most commonly 'net connected CE device, but thanks to BD-Live and plunging hardware prices, the analysts see Blu-ray players leading growth. We're just hoping the additional details in the $3,495 version include telling higher ups that we'd like more selection and surround sound to go with our streaming HD. Any other requests?
Asia to dominate all online life by 2013
The research firm In-Stat has released a report on the growth of online gaming in the Asia/Pacific region. Total online gaming revenue in Asia for 2007 was a healthy $5.8 billion, but In-Stat claims that market revenues in Asia will spike over the next five years -- hitting a staggering $21.1 billion in 2013. Yeah, that's in US dollars. In-Stat claims that a confluence of factors such as greater availability of broadband, ever-increasing content distributed across wider mediums, and 'the unique experience that online gaming offers' will propel demand. (Read: many of Asia's gamers surpass our notions of 'hardcore'... we don't have a word for that level of devotion yet.) They go on to claim China will become the largest market in Asia -- no real surprise there -- particularly as over 50% of the country's online games are developed locally. Given this phenomenal rate of online gaming adoption coupled with steady broadband penetration and speed boosts, it's only a matter of time before China's cities are as wired as South Korea's. If that sheer number of gamers can harness unthrottled bandwidth, China may very well become the pulsing digital heart of the online gaming world. Via PlayNoEvil
Study: for most, all-in-one phones aren't
Hey, isn't the idea of a cameraphone to have the luxury of leaving your big, fat digicam at home? With a smartphone, isn't the PDA supposed to be history? And doesn't that iPod belong in the circular file now that you've picked up that fancy musicphone? According to a newly released study by In-Stat, phones with extra goodness packed in aren't prompting their owners to leave other devices behind. In fact, over half of multimedia phone owners are still toting a dedicated MP3 player, some 75% of smartphone users lug a PDA as well, and a staggering 80% of cameraphone owners "regularly" carry their digital camera. Will the latest generation of superphones like the Nokia N95 start to change attitudes, or is the concept of a true all-in-one device nothing more than a myth?[Via ZDNet]
Mr. O'Rourke explains himself
The name might not be too familiar, but Mr. O'Rourke is the man responsible for the PSP-bashing report he created for the analyst group In-Stat. In an interview with Gamasutra, O'Rourke explains his reasoning behind Nintendo's continued success in the handheld market. Here are a few excerpts: "The DS's shipment advantage has been overstated somewhat." "The key to a successful handheld is not necessarily graphics. Several of Nintendo's challengers over the years (e.g., Atari, NEC) have had superior graphics performance. But they did not succeed. More important is strong software support, and recognizable characters, that appeal to what has been primarily a pre-teen, early teen demographic. This is what Nintendo has understood well, and has executed on." "Sony does not have the same number of breakout titles for the PSP as Nintendo has created for the DS. In addition, the PSP costs substantially more than the DS ($199 vs. $129 in the US)." "No, publishers will not move away from the PSP. Sony is selling too many of them. Publishers are not in the business of throwing away revenue opportunities." I think the man's on-the-money with his analysis. While it's clear that the DS is "winning," that's not going to stop publishers and developers from delivering games to us. And in the end, that's what we fanboys want (more than a victory in the handheld "war").
Yet another analyst spells doom for PSP, predicts price drop
More analysts are joining the Sony-bashing party. In-Stat revealed that Nintendo's recently been making DS Lites at an incredible pace of 2.2 million units a month. By infiltrating the homes of the elderly, women and children, Nintendo has been planning to launch Skynet has been maintaining a healthy lead over the PSP. According to Mr. O'Rourke, he predicts the DS will outship the PSP by 25 to 30% this year.Like many other analysts, Mr. O'Rourke predicts that Sony will cut the price to somewhere in the 150 to 170 dollar range, which is similar to other estimates. Honestly, I don't think the PSP needs a price drop, but Sony will inevitably have to slash prices (even if they don't want to), or do a redesign to get all this negative press away from them.[Via TG Daily]
HDTV service penetration on the rise
High-def service is working its way into more and more households world-wide. In-Stat is predicting that the service penetration is going to rise from 15 million homes in mid-2006 to 20.3 million by the end of this year. This comes in the wake of the World Cup spurring more and more countries to launch their first high-def broadcasts. So far, us, HD fans here in the States and those over the Pacific in Japan make up the majority of that number at 91%. Other notable countries are our friends to the north in Canada, Australia, and South Korea. Even though we make up a good amount of the statistics, it could be higher as one-third of US households with HD sets are currently receiving any type of high-def signal. Hopefully that will change, as there are more and more stations available each week. We are will to bet that the low amount of high-def stations is the reason that many people do not pay for a few more stations.
