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One million Americans have Just Danced
Ubisoft announced last month that its Wii public humiliation simulator Just Dance had sold two million copies worldwide. Now, based on data from the March NPD report, analyst Ben Schachter estimates that one million copies have been sold in the US alone between the game's November release and the end of March. That's ... a lot of people loading up a cover version of "Womanizer" on their TVs. 236,000 of those copies of Dance were purchased just last month in the US. In contrast, Ubisoft's new Wii release, Red Steel 2, moved 50,000 copies (though it was released on March 23, in all fairness). We look forward to the inevitable knockoffs from other publishers. Anyone for a round of Strictly Toe Tappin'? No? How about We Wiggle Rhythmically? Or Dance Dance Revol -- oh ... right. %Gallery-70594%
Grand Theft Auto franchise may have 'peaked,' according to analyst
While Take-Two has a number of solid properties, such as BioShock and Borderlands, Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto is unquestionably its largest and most important franchise. However, sluggish sales of recent GTA efforts, from the handheld Chinatown Wars to the 360-exclusive DLC Episodes from Liberty City, have Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter worried about the future of Take-Two's flagship brand. "Has the Grand Theft Auto franchise peaked? Given the strength of GTA IV in 2008, the question may seem misplaced, but our concern is that the very highly rated new GTA content for Xbox as well as PSP and DS did not perform up to expectations in 2009," Scahchter notes, while addressing potential criticisms to his claim. "Now, we very clearly understand that these do not represent 'true' new GTA titles. However, the fact is that these were compelling titles, attractively priced, and reasonably well-promoted, yet they fell relatively flat." Considering well over ten million people purchased GTA IV, the lackluster sales for these spin-off efforts is even more evident. Does the GTA name no longer carry the weight it once did? Or, are gamers simply waiting for a game that doesn't take place in Liberty City?
Analyst estimates seven million day-one sales of Modern Warfare 2
Analyst Ben Schachter estimates that Modern Warfare 2, that game you're playing right now, sold seven million copies worldwide in its first day on the market, almost doubling the first-day sales of Grand Theft Auto IV (3.6 million). 1.2 million copies have already been accounted for in the UK -- not coincidentally, also double that region's first-day total for GTA IV. That trend went into Schachter's estimate. "With GTA IV selling-through 6mm units worldwide in its first week," Schachter said, "that suggests week one of Modern Warfare 2 worldwide sell-through could approximate ~11.7mm. While 2x the week one tally for GTA IV may seem aggressive, the bottom line is that we believe current consensus estimates of around 12mm for the December quarter may end up being conservative." Here's an eye-opening number for context: Street Fighter II on SNES, which we think of as ubiquitous, sold 6.3 million copies worldwide. Total.
Analyst: GameStop sales safe from digital delivery until 2017
Even though GameStop seems to be accepting the inevitable digital future, one analyst says the major gaming retailer won't feel the pinch from online game delivery services until 2017. According to Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter, limited storage capacity and bandwidth limitations mean it is "unlikely" that digital services will have a "meaningful impact" on GameStop's sales within this console cycle. Schachter doesn't anticipate the next console cycle to kick off until some time in 2014 and, even if future formats are completely digital, believes it will still take a number of years for market penetration to reach a threatening level to the retail business. For an example of "proof" to his claims, Schachter points to the "very disappointing sales" of the digital download exclusive, Grand Theft Auto IV: The Lost & Damned. Confusing, considering all previous accounts have pointed to the downloadable expansion as seeing strong sales since release. "The bottom line is that retail still matters," Schachter told IndustryGamers. While some analysts are keen on throwing the brick-and-motar chain under the bus during the increasing digital age, Schachter claims Gamestop "continues to defy the naysayers." He went on to ask if we wanted to pre-order any future games industry analysis. [Image]
Analyst: July Wii hardware sales lowest since launch
According to Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter, the Wii hardware sales numbers that NPD reported yesterday were the lowest since the November 2006 launch of the system. "Although Wii Sports Resort sold well," he commented to IndustryGamers, "it appears to have offered little lift to Wii hardware sales, increasing the probability in our view that Nintendo must lower the price soon (we expect a September cut)."Of course, Schachter didn't mention the Wii's position relative to its competitors. Considering that the Wii's worst month ever meant that it plummeted into the #1 position among home consoles, and #2 overall behind the DS, it's possible that Nintendo could see this a bit differently from analysts and ... price drop enthusiasts.
Rhythm games grow industry by 32% in '08
Rhythm games have certainly been keeping the tempo up for financial growth in the industry. GameDaily notes UBS analyst Ben Schachter's report, showing "music-themed games" have made up 15% of software sales year-to-date and 32% year-over-year growth so far.The Guitar Hero franchise is already up 82% this year, with Guitar Hero: On Tour taking in $15 million in July alone. Meanwhile, Rock Band, across all platforms, took in $47 million in July ... and that doesn't even count any DLC sales. Unless the rhythm game bubble bursts in the next few months, GH: World Tour and Rock Band 2 sales -- along with their respective DLC sales -- could make up a significant portion of another record-breaking year for the industry.
Analyst: Best of E3 winners see strong domestic sales
This year's Game Critics Awards for E3 honored Fallout 3 with "Best of Show," but will that translate into sales when the game actually releases? Well, chances are, sales of the game will probably have very little to do with the title receiving the E3 award; however, according to analyst Ben Schachter of UBS, the "Best of Show" does typically go on to see an average of 2.42 million units in sales within the US.Schachter notes that every software winner over nine years has gone on to see over a million units sold (except for 2000's Jet Grind Radio). He also points out that each of the winners was either a first-party game or a console exclusive*. *Don't get nitpicky, we're way ahead of those nerdsploding and furiously typing that MGS came to the GameCube six years later.
