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Analysts predict over ten million sales for MotionPlus
Both Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter and EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich expect the Wii MotionPlus peripheral to achieve sales of around ten million units in the US and Europe. The two just disagree on how long it will take. Pachter believes that the sales will happen early on, driven by bundles of early MotionPlus compatible software: "I think around 20 percent of Wii owners in the US and Europe will have bought Wii Sports Resort, Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 or EA Sports Grand Slam Tennis," Pachter told Edge, "so that's around eight million." He added, "I think another two million will buy MotionPlus with new consoles."Divnich thinks three million units will sell through this holiday season, but it will take an additional year to achieve the ten-million-plus level of sales. "For the Wii MotionPlus, we currently expect the install base to reach over 11 million units by the end of Nintendo's next fiscal year in March 2011, a 15 percent penetration."Both analysts think Red Steel 2 is a risk that could pay off for Ubisoft. "Red Steel 2 may come along at precisely the right time, around when people are ready for another [MotionPlus] game," Pachter said. "The risk is really more a function of competition, compounded by the risk that Ubisoft could make a bad game." Both analysts believe that Red Steel 2 will be bundled with a MotionPlus.
Pachter sees potential in EA Sports Active, dismisses Spore
Wedbush Morgan diva analyst extraordinaire Michael Pachter, the man who finds the idea of Apple buying Electronic Arts "retarded," is confident about EA's gaming lineup -- particularly on the Wii -- and is raising the company's stock expectation to $27 (currently $20). Using the royal We, His Analytical Lordship was particularly impressed by EA Sports Active and Tiger Woods, which He sees becoming "blockbusters" on the Wii. Of course, Pachter can't show his love without asserting his authority with a beating. Warhammer and Spore were graciously cut with love by the soothsayer. He remains skeptical about Warhammer Online's potential, stating that with 300,000 subscribers the game is probably only making about $10 million in profit (which didn't save many staff members) and estimates the game would break even in operating cost if it dips to about 250,000 subscribers. Pachter also isn't confident about EA's attempts to turn Spore into a franchise, noting that that the game "sold about as well as a typical SpongeBob game." Yeah, that's got to sting a little. Update: Pachter let us know he writes his reports with Edward Woo. So, our loving crack about the royal We wasn't accurate. There goes our image of Pachter in full Elizabeth I garb. So sad.
Analyst sees Wii HD in 2010
Really need to know when Wii games in 720p or higher resolutions will finally be officially available? In lieu of having no idea whatsoever, let us substitute the (slightly better?) option of dates pulled out of the air estimated by noted industry analyst Michael Pachter. He doesn't see any new consoles from the already-HD camp until 2013, with the long rumored Wii HD due in 2010. We know, 480p maximum output is the only thing keeping you from a fit, balance boarded lifestyle and also hope to see a proper high definition console from Nintendo as soon as possible, check the read link for all the financial details and reasonings why next year could be the year.[Via Joystiq]
Analyst: Next console cycle isn't coming until 2013
Compared to last Spring's outlandish software sales figures (fueled by the release of Super Smash Bros. Brawl and GTA IV), this year's stats aren't inspiring much confidence in gaming industry investors. In fact, many are anxiously awaiting the launch of new hardware to provide a quick sales boost -- but according to industry analyst Michael Pachter, they shouldn't hold their breath: By his estimation, new hardware won't be hitting store shelves until at least 2013.Pachter said that publishers would be hesitant to adopt new hardware considering their investments in the current console cycle have yet to adequately pay off. There's one exception -- Pachter expects the oft-rumored high-definition Wii may appear some time in 2010.
Pachter: New GTA in 2010, Lost and Damned could sell 2m this year
Wedbush Morgan soothsayer Michael Pachter foresees the next console Grand Theft Auto releasing next year and estimates sales of DLC The Lost and Damned reaching two million units by year's end. Pachter feels Take-Two remains a "one-hit wonder" with Grand Theft Auto, that one franchise has been (putting it mildly) immensely successful.Although Take-Two has yet to announce a new GTA, Pachter believes the next installment in the crime series will pull up to retail next year and likely outsell GTA IV by 50 percent, due to the greater next-gen console install base by next year. Although there are currently no solid numbers to support Pachter's belief that The Lost and Damned DLC will sell two million units this year, we do know a lot of people got on their hogs for biker-based adventure.%Gallery-37692%
Netflix earnings call roundup: Testing Saturday shipments, 700k Blu-ray subscribers and even more streaming
All week, we've seen stats, figures and speculation based on Netflix's earnings call leaking out, and here's a few more interesting notes gathered from around the Internet for those not glued to their speakerphone Monday. Checking in to the party was always talkative analyst Michael Pachter, suggesting that the Xbox Live / Netflix combo could bring more than 1 million gamers to Netflix over the next year, with the service becoming a "gold mine" for the video rental company. At the same time, while CEO Reed Hastings touted "millions" served by Watch Instantly streams, the number of Blu-ray subs rose to 700,000, up from 500k at the beginning of December. Whether you count that as a victory for digital distribution or old school discs, those still checking their mailbox will be happy to know the company is testing Saturday shipping in certain regions...as long as the USPS keeps mailing six days a week.Read - Netflix testing weekend shippingRead - Netflix: Blu-ray adoption slow than Internet movie streaming adoptionRead - Xbox Live is proverbial gold mine for Netflix says Pachter
Pachter: Assassin's Creed 2 to assassinate retail before April '10
On the heel's of Ubisoft's release of their Q3 earning, industry analyst Michael "Pac Attack" Pachter is predicting that Assassin's Creed 2 should release prior to the end of Ubisoft's 2010 fiscal year that wraps on March 31st. Pachter goes further in his speculation, mentioning that Splinter Cell Conviction will also see a release before 2010 fiscal year's end. It's funny that Pachter mentions both Assassin's 2 and Conviction releasing during the same time frame, because we have a long standing belief that they'll be so similar, that Ubisoft will combine both games into one. A stealth assassin and an emo-stealth drunkard both in the same space could work ... nevermind.
Pachter: Wii sales surpass PS2's initial 2-year performance
In what is perhaps his softest attack on credulity yet, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has predicted that life-to-date sales of Nintendo's Wii console will overtake the PlayStation 2's two-year sales when it comes time to tally December's NPD-compiled North American sales results. In other words, Pachter believes that the Wii has flown off shelves faster than the PlayStation 2 did in its first two years of existence. The gall of that young upstart! (The Wii, not Pachter.)While Nintendo's astonishing performance in November may render Pachter's bet a safe one, trumping the massively mainstream PlayStation 2 is nonetheless what we in the business call "a big deal." If December's NPD results reinforce the analyst's claim, it may even fuel his assertion that 2009 will offer more Wii hits from third-party developers -- albeit in the form of "mainstay" fare. Still, if the Wii is to become the new PS2, maybe someone will give the system its Shadow of the Colossus.
Wii sales up 100% over Christmas, says Pachter
A dry but happy piece of business news to start your week off: Wedbush Morgan's all-seeing analyst Michael Pachter reckons Wii sales in the U.S. accelerated dramatically over the holidays, with Christmas figures "up more than 100%."According to Pachter, that translates into "around 3 million" Wiis sold during December. As we previously mentioned, the record for U.S. hardware sales in a single month is 2.7 million, a figure set by the PlayStation 2 in December 2002. When the latest NPD figures are released on January 15, it looks like we'll have a new record-holder. Nintendo obviously didn't get the "recession" memo.
Pachter: October hardware sales to indicate industry's recession resistance
Barring troglodytism or a severe case of denial, it's pretty safe to say that everyone knows the US (and, we hear, global) economy isn't doing too hot at the moment. Although the video game industry clearly isn't recession proof, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter does think that October's NPD hardware sales numbers (expected later this week) will show how recession resistant it is.Pachter believes that all three consoles are going strong into the holiday season and expects an 18% hardware sales increase over last year. If he's correct, he believes investors should take it as a sign that the video game industry will do better than the average business during the recession. If hardware sales go down in October, Pachter believes the recession would then have infected the industry ... and darkness shall sweep across the lands.
Pachter: Wii extended lead over rivals in September
Even though we're all facing FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON and will be trading berries and colored stones for drinking water this time next month, gamers are still buying consoles like they're going out of fashion.According to sultan of sales figures Michael Pachter, the Wii and DS each shifted a tidy 600,000 units in North America during September, a respectable rise on sales in August. If the analyst's crystal ball-gazing is correct, that means Wii has added another 40,000 to its lead over the Xbox 360.Pachter's estimations for Nintendo hardware are echoed by new prediction kids on the block EEDAR, who also have Wii and DS at 600k apiece; apparently people are struggling to make ends meet, but not struggling that much. We'll have the super-official NPD figures later this week. If you "support" Nintendo in the console "race," then you probably already know that the company excels at selling stuff. To catch up on just how much stuff, check out the NPD figures from August, July, June, and every other previous month here.
Pachter 'absolutely convinced' Wii HD is coming
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that Nintendo is preparing the duct tape for a new Wii that will feature high-definition visuals. Speaking in an AFP piece about Wii's bid to appeal to "hardcore" gamers, Pachter insisted that Nintendo needs to overcome the technical gulf that exists between its console and those of rivals."A Wii HD would really position Nintendo well, which is why I'm absolutely convinced there is a Wii HD coming," stated Pachter, who thinks the console needs to shed its "toy for my mom" image. Ouch. If you're currently experiencing déjà vu, that's probably because Pachter made this exact same prediction more than a year ago, when he estimated a Wii upgrade to be "two to three years" away.For the record, we non-analysts at Wii Fanboy still think that's too soon for an upgraded version of a system that continues to fly off shelves -- and developers seem to agree. [Via videogaming247]
Pachter talks Wii supply, forecasts August earnings
We all know Michael Pachter has no problem tossing his two pennies around, and his estimations for the month of August might surprise some of you. When it comes to sales, the Wedbush Morgan analyst sees Nintendo making around $100 million on software. As for hardware, it's a different story, as a decline is expected."Because the U.S. has received only around 1/3 of total Wii production to-date, instead of a more normal 40 percent, there has been a severe shortage of Wii supply here that has yet to let up," says Pachter. He thinks that the supposed production increase won't take effect in North America until September.See also: GameStop CEO sees no 'end in sight' for Wii shortages
Pachter: Majesco 'close' to turning a profit
Of course, as the saying goes, close only counts in horseshoes and things that go boom. Regardless, Wedbush Morgan's most outspoken soothsayer predicts that troubled publisher Majesco is "close to returning to profitability." Good for them, we say, though in the face of waning share prices and delisting threats, the company needs more than encouraging analyst comments to help push it to the top of Money Mountain.Pachter bases his expectations for the publisher on tweaks made to the company's sales and cost management, as well as growth that, according to the analyst, has been managed "prudently." We'll see if the company can meet the firm's expectations of $10 million in revenue for the quarter when Majesco reports its Q3 2008 earnings on Thursday.
Pachter raises year-end software sales expectation
Michael Pachter, analyst extraordinaire at Wedbush Morgan, recently shaved his Predict-o-Matic Monkey® as punishment for inaccurately guessing the industry's software sales growth this year. Turns out that instead of a mere 19% jump in US sales for 2008, the monkey's dart should have hit the index card marked with "32%" against the wall. Pachter also tweaked his numbers for Europe, increasing the expectation from 20% to 40% growth. Wedbush Morgan now has a combined expectation of software sales growth in Europe and the US of 36% over 2007's record-breaking figures. Pachter is currently reviewing Predict-o-Matic's return policy.
Analyst Pachter says 'blame Japan' for Sony's PSP mis-management
Analyst Michael Pachter doesn't see a bright future for the PSP. In fact, he believes that we're nearing the end of the syste's run, due to the paltry release lineup for the remainder of the year. The introduction of the PSP Brite is seen as a sign of weakness, suggesting the redesign will confuse and anger more than excite. "Constant tech tweaks and upgrades might work for telephones, but they're not what gamers want ... it creates confusion, and leaves many users with older models feeling inadequate," Pachter told Das Gamer.Because everyone needs someone to blame, Pachter offers this advice: "Blame Japan," he says. He believes that Sony is being much too ambitious, handling the PS2, PSP and PS3 simultaneously. "[Japan]'s instructing the US to play catch-up with Microsoft on Xbox Live, step up its online game with Home, offer movie downloads and push the Blu-ray home theater initiative just to begin with. Something had to give. The company has been spreading itself too thin."Ironically, PSP's strongest territory is Japan, where new releases continue to be announced on a regular basis. While we'd disagree that PSP is on a deathbed, it's obvious that drastic work needs to be done to change the current state of the PSP.[Thanks, Ronnie D.!]
One million Wii sales a month totally possible -- Pachter
It's NPD week, and that can mean only one thing, folks: it's Pachter time. Everybody's favorite silver-haired analyst makes a habit of estimating console sales in the U.S. on a monthly basis -- it's his job or something -- and this month is no different. For July, Pachter is predicting a sell-through of 650,000 Wii consoles, with the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 coughing up dust on 275,000 and 250,000 respectively.So what's new, right? But wait, because it gets better: the Wedbush Morgan dreamboat also reckons that Wii sales could rise dramatically during the second half of 2008, to the point where the thing is selling a million a month -- and all thanks to a stronger U.S. dollar.Whereas previously Nintendo would ship a "significant portion" of its Wii supply to Europe to take advantage of the stronger Euro (hence making sales more profitable), the dollar recently appreciated against the yen, meaning the company has a good reason to start shipping a greater number of Wiis to U.S stores. "...We expect monthly sell-through to increase by as many as 300,000 units per month, beginning in August," reckons Pachter.If you can hear quaking, that'll be the competition. If you "support" Nintendo in the console "race," then you probably already know that the company excels at selling stuff. To catch up on just how much stuff, check out the NPD figures from June, May, April, and every other previous month here.
Analysts: Xbox 360 outsold PS3 in July
Prior to the release of the official July NPD video game sales numbers that are set to come out this Thursday, the gaming industry's best analysts have released their console sales predictions and things are looking peachy for Microsoft and the Xbox 360.Analysts Michael Pachter and Jesse Divnich both agree that, after a bad June, the Xbox 360's July hardware sales will overtake the Playstation 3 thanks to the announcement of the 60GB Xbox 360 and low price of the 20GB model. Pachter is pegging the 360 to have sales in the 275K range compared to the PS3's 250K, while Divnich is a bit more 360 optimistic setting July 360 sales at 325K compared to the PS3's 275K. Whatever July's NPD numbers end up being, we have a feeling that our analyst friends will be correct and the 360 will have had a decent July. Pass the champagne!
DS Daily: Here we go again
For the last few months, we've been back and forth on the redesign issue. Will it happen? Won't it? We almost convinced ourselves that we'd hear something at E3, but Nintendo was pretty mum on the DS in general, but for a few exceptions. Now that all that's over, however, we're back in the fray, with all-new rumors of a DS redesign. Michael Pachter is the latest to throw his name into the ring of redesign predictions, and it makes sense that he's said we'll see the new DS debut in Japan, as the DS is as important an accessory there as, say, shoes. But are we ready to start believing again? Are we just setting ourselves up for all new heartbreak and despair?%Gallery-20355%
Pachter: expect a new DS in Japan this year
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter agrees with some of the other predictions we heard this year: a new DS system is on the way. According to investor notes released by the company, falling demand for the hardware in Japan will motivate Nintendo to introduce the next revision of the DS "before the end of the calendar year."Nintendo of Japan, if you're reading (and you aren't): we can solve this hardware demand problem without the need for a new console (although Pachter believes the next iteration is ready): just pack Dragon Quest IX, when it comes out, with a DS Lite. It doesn't even have to be an exclusive color.%Gallery-20355%[Via Joystiq]
