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Pachter predicts 7.5 million Guitar Hero units sold by year's end
And as Atreyu mourned the loss of Artax, the great Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter emerged from the Swamps of Sadness to dispense some relatively happy predictions for Activision stock holders. Pachter believes Guitar Hero will sell 7.5 million units this year and will begin to see declining sales next year due to Rock Band competition. He guesstimates the Guitar Hero franchise will generate $550 million for Activision this fiscal year.Pachter expects decent revenues from Spider-Man and Shrek sequels for Activision's fiscal year '09 and sees their new James Bond game generating between $100 -150 million in sales. But Guitar Hero is Activision's great source of revenue and imperative in keeping them in the #1 US publisher spot.
Pachter: Xbox 360 September victory won't last
Michael Pachter? Dude knows his stuff. Totally called Halo 3's the Xbox 360's September sales victory. But dab those tears away, because even though corks might be a-popping now at Microsoft Towers, the Wedbush Morgan man expects the victory to be a fleeting one at best. "Although sales of Halo 3 accounted for all (and then some) of the growth during the month, the game clearly drove hardware sales that will position the industry for even greater sales in November and December, when many Halo players will be ready for a new challenge," Pachter told Gamasutra.Loose translation: the Wii will soon have clambered back on its throne, bloodied yet still so very far from beaten. Now, do we all agree?
Pachter: Halo 3 drove Xbox 360 sales above Wii in September
Gaming analyst Michael Pachter is reporting that the Wii could be knocked from its comfortable, safe throne this month, as he is predicting the September NPD numbers will show the Xbox 360 on top. Apparently, some game called Halo 3 was a big deal and everyone perhaps went nutty over it. Yeah, we don't get it.Pachter explained his predictions, stating "forecasts for the Wii and the DS reflect our belief that supplies remain somewhat constrained." He added that "Our Xbox 360 forecast reflects an expected boost in hardware sales due to the introduction of Halo 3." Well, games do make the system, so we guess we understand.Oh well, what goes up, must come down, right?
Pachter: SCEA reluctant to announce 40GB due to 60GB supply
Signs are pointing to a November 2nd launch of the price (and feature) reduced 40GB PS3. However, where is the buzz? Why is there no official confirmation from SCEA? "These rolling announcements suggest to me that Sony has an inventory control problem, with too many unsold 60GB units out there, and they don't want to have to cut the price to clear them," Wedbush Morgan securities analyst Michael Pachter told GI.biz.Certainly, it appears that 60GB machines are still in ample supply in spite of Sony's proclamation that the system is no longer being manufactured. Are the systems selling at an even slower rate than anticipated? Seemingly. However, what will happen when November 2nd rolls along, and 60GB systems are still in stock? Sony will have to "accept reality and bundle [the 60GB with] a game and an extra controller for USD 499.99, giving consumers some value for their money." However, in spite of a price drop, it appears that Pachter is not confident that a price drop will significantly increase sales for Sony's system. What price must the PS3 reach for it to appeal to the masses?
Is backwards compatibility an issue? Analysts debate
So, the 40GB PS3 is losing backwards compatibility with PS2 games. Is that a big deal? You voted, but let's hear what the analysts have to say. From a business perspective, it makes sense for Sony to remove the feature. "Cost is hard to gauge, probably $30 - $50 per unit," Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter told GameDaily. A significant savings, when one considers the thousands of systems Sony must sell. Will the lack of PS2 support affect PS3 sales? "I thought lack of backward compatibility would hurt the Xbox [360], but it really didn't," Pachter noted.However, NPD analyst Anita Frazier has some data that might concern Sony. "Nearly 70 percent said that [backwards compatibility] was an important feature to them."Regardless, when it comes down to the choice between backwards compatibility and saving $100, the choice will be clear for most consumers. Colin Sebastian, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets noted: "It appears that pricing is becoming more of a priority, which makes sense given where the PS3 is selling in terms of market share. I don't believe removing backwards compatibility is a huge deal, considering that most people who want to play PS2 games will continue to do so on their PS2s."
Analyst madness: Halo 3 selling three million fast and $399 PS3 at TGS
The analysts have all come popping up from their respective holes following yesterday's NPD numbers to say a couple of words before going back in and waiting by their fax machines for the next month. The message conveyed? August's much better than expected sales were far from the norm. simExchange analyst Jesse Divnich said that slowdown is typically expected before a major release like Halo 3 -- and that totally didn't happen. It seems this holiday season could be "spectacular, spectacular" even if GTA IV decided to miss the holiday party.As for the nitty gritty, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter was very happy with the Mirror's predictions and trusted it yet again to forecast that Halo 3 will sell three million units in less than two weeks. It also suggested that Xbox 360 sales in Sept. will be over 400k. The simExchange said that Xbox will outsell PS3 2-to-1 in September, adding that Sony's system needs to be more compelling to consumers (another price drop wouldn't hurt, apparently). That's where Pachter jumps in again with rumors of a 40GB PS3 at $399 and a $99 PS2 being announced at the Tokyo Games Show next week.Other analysts chimed in too, err, chiming that the Wii third-party titles aren't selling well. Divnich said, "The market continues to imply that Wii consumers prefer Nintendo published titles for the Wii over third-party ports like Madden NFL 08 and Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08, even if the ported version includes functions that take advantage of the Wii's control system." We're not too sure yet if given the choice, consumers would take an alternate control scheme over the instant gratification of a familiar (and prettier) product.
Pachter: $399 PS3 by next April, Xbox 360 rebounding in Aug. NPD
Following the Mirror's failure last month to accurately project the NPD numbers, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has given it another chance. With the NPD numbers for August expected next Thursday, Pachter went into his secret room and asked once again, "Mirror, mirror, on the wall. In August, who's the console winner of them all -- and skip ahead, don't waste my time by saying Wii and DS!""Listen Pach, can I call you Pach?" The Mirror tried to joke, knowing it had wronged Pachter, "Anyway, sorry about last month. As for August, I see around 240,000 units of the Xbox 360 sold -- up from their 170K last month. I also see the PS3 dipping below 150,000 units, but not back to the tragic pre-June levels.""Thanks Mirror!" Pachter started walking off, satisfied that it was something he could go with. But then ..."Oh, one more thing," blurted out the Mirror, "Sony will cut the price of the PS3 to $399 by next April.""You should have quit while you were ahead, but I'll go with it," said Pachter as he went upstairs to write his own report. Pachter's report says that he still believes the 80GB will get cut to $499 before Thanksgiving (minus Motorstorm) and that another $100 will be cut in early 2008. He uses the recent Sony IPO move to back up his claim. A $399 PS3 would be very sweet, especially if the games start flowing properly by next year.
Pachter: Wii supplies being diverted to US from Japan
Japan doesn't need their Wiis like those ravenous all-consuming Americans, and Nintendo knows this according to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter. While crunching the NPD numbers for July, and trying to figure out where he went wrong, he noticed that the US Wii sales numbers were a bit confusing -- they were high. That's not confusing on the demand side of things, but the supply shouldn't have been there to sell.Pachter says, "Wii sales remain strong, with an apparent increase in supply during the quarter. This increase is inconsistent with reports that Nintendo has had difficulty in increasing its manufacturing capacity ... suggesting to us that the company has diverted supply from other areas (perhaps Japan) to the U.S." Finally, our societal lack of patience pays off! We want our Wiis and we want them now! There will be "murder, death, kill" if mothers don't get their little ones a Wii by this Christmas.
More analysts predict PS3 ahead of Xbox in July
Pachter ain't the only analyst predicting the July NPD numbers will show the PS3 has finally outsold the Xbox 360. Turns out Lazard's Colin Sebastian predicts the same thing, saying the PS3 price cut gave the console its expected sales bump for July, while the Xbox 360 hardware issues finally coming to light will cause sales to lag. The Wii and DS will keep doing what they do and make Nintendo gobs of cash.Yes, you can all release your collective "duh" now, but it's still Sebastian's job to say it. He says Activision should see a 200% growth in July, based on Guitar Hero and Transformer sales, whereas EA should expect a 10% decline (remember, this doesn't involve Madden '08 money). Well, whatever the stars tell the analysts, all will be revealed this Thursday by the NPD numbers.
PlayStation 3 outsells the 360 in July, sez Pachter
According to industry analyst Michael Pachter, the PlayStation 3 finally outsold the 360 in July due to a combination of the E3 price drop and the 360's warranty announcement. His final numbers for the new consoles in July had the Wii on top as usual with 330k, the PS3 in second place with 160k and the 360 last with 115k . This represents a roughly 2x increase in PS3 sales compared to the month before.Considering the price drop wasn't even in effect the entire month, it will be interesting to see what happens with PS3 sales in August. We're also finally starting to get games, which always helps out sales as well (though the only big title, Warhawk, is coming out at the very end of August). Of course the 360's price drop also went into effect, and their big games are starting to trickle out a little earlier so it's hard to judge what will happen. Hopefully Sony can keep the momentum up![Via Joystiq]
Pachter says PS3 outsold Xbox 360 in July
As a master of the occult, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has access to an astonishing amount of prescient items. He typically rotates them, most recently speaking to the mirror which he got at an estate sale from a Queen who apparently took a nasty fall. Pachter went up to the mirror and asked, "Mirror, mirror, on the wall. In July, who's the console winner of them all?"The Mirror replied, "Why the Nintendo Wii and DS, of course."Miffed at the information given by his impulse purchase, Pachter replies, "You better tell me something I don't already know or I'm shipping you by freight to Pidgeon!"In a moment of sheer panic the Mirror blurts out, "NPD will report the PS3 beat the Xbox 360 in sales for July."Pachter believes that for the month of July, which will be official from NPD on Aug. 23, that the DS (450,000 units) and Wii (330,000) dominated sales in North America. Although, for the first time ever, the PS3 will show sales of 160,000 units, while the Xbox 360 will have 115,000. This would also mean that the PS3 will have doubled sales since announcing their 60GB clearance sale last month. He goes on to say that the Xbox warranty issue was a speed bump for Microsoft as "as consumers struggled with the meaning of the 'three red rings of death' issue." He believes that the price cut and apparent fix of the design flaw will rebound Xbox 360 sales.
Analysts debate the effect of the Madden PS3 fps debacle
Is Madden's 30 fps performance on PS3 hurting Sony? Two analysts have very differing opinions on how EA's football game might be affecting public view of the PS3. UBS analyst Ben Schachter noted that: "given Madden's popularity and the volume of this debate, we think this is a more meaningful negative for Sony than investors might realize, as it gives gamers just one more reason not to buy a PS3 this year following the slip of GTA IV. It is a positive for MSFT." However, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter disagrees. In a statement to GameDaily BIZ, he comments: "There are obviously PS3 games that look fantastic (have you played Resistance, Motorstorm, or seen Call of Duty 4?). It's not an issue with the PS3 ... Eventually (as in next year), EA will figure it out, and nobody will care." Microsoft has been heavily promoting Madden 2008 for Xbox 360, hoping it becomes the console of choice for what is a yearly bestseller. However, Pachter is frustrated that media that calls attention to the Madden debacle hasn't focused on something he thinks is a far bigger concern: "One would think that stupid analysts would be writing about the 360 warranty issue, and how people will avoid that box until they can be assured that they won't see the 'three red rings of death.'" Those are fighting words!
All about industry analysts on Bonus Round, part deuce
Pachter and Pidgeon are back and no, it's not an original USA comedy about two bumbling analysts that can't catch a break ... though we'll be sure to call our agents and see if we can setup a pitch. No, our two favorite tellers of the future (sorry, Raven) return in part two of Bonus Rounds' episode about analysts.This time, the focus is less on what they do and more on what it is they're predicting -- "it" of course, being the console war. Do watch for a fantastic analogy from Michael Pachter. Spoiler: Xbox 360 is to Victoria's Secret as Wii is to The Gap.See also: part one
Pachter: PS2 price drop this year and another for PS3 by GTA IV
Having recently returned from the future with 4399 other people, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter revealed that he believes a PS2 price cut may be possible this year and the PS3 will get another drop in early 2008. Last year's PS2 price cut wasn't exactly what many were hoping for, but continued strong sales of the PS2 show it didn't hurt. Now Pachter believes that the PS2 might finally hit the $99 mark this year, which if you've held out on getting a PS2 this long -- seriously, it's a really amazing system for $99.As for the PS3, Pachter doesn't expect any further price cuts on the PS3 this year. He expects the next price drop to happen with the release of the delayed GTA IV and Metal Gear Solid 4 next year. We're still wondering if the 80GB will take the 60GB's spot once the clearance sale is over. We know that in a semantic argument that doesn't technically count as a price drop and is more of a "product shift," but we're very curious to know what happens after those 60GBs are gone?
PlayStation 3 responsible for GTA IV delay, surmises Pachter
With Take-Two remaining tight-lipped about what's really behind the Grand Theft Auto IV delay – they're going with the vague "almost strictly technological challenges" defense – it's up to the pundits, analysts, bloggers, and anonymous tipsters to give us the skinny on what's really going down. First up to bat is video game analyst extraordinaire, Michael Pachter who told our pals at GameDaily BIZ, "We think it is likely that the Rockstar team had difficulty in building an exceptionally complicated game for the PS3, and failed to recognize how far away from completion the game truly was until recently." Of course, he means really recently, since Take-Two did just reaffirm their plans to ship the game in October as recently as E3 (yeah, the one last month).We know what you're thinking: Why not release the game for Xbox 360 in ought seven, and ship the PS3 release whenever it's ready (everyone else seems to be taking this course of action)? Pachter further surmises "that Take-Two had a contractual commitment to Sony that it would not favor competitor Microsoft by launching the Xbox 360 version of GTA IV prior to launching the PS3 version," calling it "the only plausible explanation." Guess he doesn't think much of our theory that the targeting was too accurate and intuitive and needed to be retooled.[Update: Newsweek's N'Gai Croal takes a slightly different approach than Mr. Pachter, surmising, "We believe that Rockstar is having difficulty with both versions of the game, not just the PS3." In other words, no deals enforcing a consistent launch date across platforms, just difficulty in getting it ready on either. "It wouldn't surprise us if Rockstar and Take-Two had already all-but-delayed the PS3 version to triage the Xbox 360 version for this holiday, only to have their hands forced when, at yesterday's product review, it became clear to both sides that even the 360 version could not be completed this year to Rockstar's exacting standards."]
Midway close to being profitable
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter tells GameDaily that Midway may be only one franchise away from not playing the Atari game of financial problems anymore. Recently Midway reduced their losses to around $14 million, which sounds like a lot to us normal folk, but for a corporation, that's like owing someone $20. Apparently Lord of the Rings Online helped bolster the bottom line, but because Midway is merely the distributer, Turbine is still reaping most of the benefits.Pachter believes Stranglehold will help Midway's cash flow and he expects it to sell a million copies in its first quarter of release. He believes profitability is right around the corner for the company if any of its titles do better than expected. Let's see, the contenders are Stranglehold, Blacksite: Area 51, and Unreal Tournament III. Given the way the industry is going, there's no reason any major company shouldn't currently be profitable -- unless they've got a great excuse.
Pachter predicts HD Wii
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter thinks that, just as Nintendo eschewed the normal method of competing in the "console war"-- a console at least as powerful as its contemporaries-- so will they break the pattern of the traditional release cycle. He sees the falling costs of graphics processors and rising public demand for high definition possibly leading Nintendo to release a Wii that can output in HD in "two to three years.""Consumers may hope for improved graphics, and my guess is that Nintendo will comply," Pachter told GamePro. An HD Wii would necessarily be an all-new console, with games designed for HD graphics. Are you ready for Wii 2 in 2009? Is the general public ready for the sting of console obsolescence?
Pachter: Nintendo wins another E3
The analyst from Wedbush Morgan seems to think Nintendo walked out of the recently concluded E3 as the victor, for the second year in a row, commenting to gaming mag GamePro. He also commented that Sony would've walked away the victor, given news of their recent price drop for the PS3, but Nintendo still presented " new hardware and decent software introductions."Of course, you already have our general impressions of the keynote immediately following it, but looking at the variety of content available for Wii owners now that the show has concluded, we're happy about the future of the Wii. And the experiences it'll provide.[Via Codename Revolution]
Pachter expects $499 price to remain, even when 60GB PS3s do not
Will they? Won't they? This is worse than Ross and Rachel. Ah, the 90s. Simpler times. Since Thursday, we've been questioning whether the 80GB PS3 will drop to $499 once the 60GB version sells out. We're fairly comfortable with our prediction that it will and Michael Pachter, of Wedbush Morgan, agrees. Pachter states that "the Sony entry level price of $499 is here to stay" and that "there are presently 2 – 3 million 60Gb PS3s produced and not yet sold." This number constitutes up 75% of PS3s in the hands of consumers right now, so the idea of that many selling out before the end of the month, as Reeves suggested, is ridiculous. Pachter's reasoning for why he expects the 80GB model to drop in price is similar to most people's. The 80GB PS3 should cost Sony as much, if not less, to produce than the 60GB model thanks to removal of the Emotion Engine (which, at this point, is the PS3's equivalent of the appendix). Not to mention that Motorstorm is included in the 80GB box, so removing the game will allow the bundle to drop in price by at least $50. Pachter ends his report by saying that he expects "the $499 price point to be maintained until early next year, when the 80Gb model will likely be cut again to $399." We're not so sure about this ourselves, but we'd definitely like to see it happen.
Pachter pauses to percolate E3 thoughts, says $499 PS3 is here to stay
Wedbush-Morgan's Michael Pachter has been around the industry long enough to know that the first thing you do as an analyst the Monday after E3 is a brain dump. Bright and early this morning we received his report entitled "E3 2007 Review: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly" in which Mr. Pachter fills you in on the stocks to buy, hold on to, and sell in the relative future (Cliffs Notes version found after the break).Pachter says the theme of this E3 was "non-traditional" game software. Music games, games targeting or including female gamers and titles focused on the casual market. He also says that unlike prior E3s, access to new product offerings was relatively unrestricted -- well yeah, because everyone was there for business and barely had time to see the hangar. The key companies Pachter says to invest in are Activision, EA, THQ and Ubisoft. He also says the the big news of E3 was the Sony "price cut" and that he expects Microsoft to follow by the end of the year. But what about that 60GB not being manufactured news? Pachter thinks the $499 PS3 is here to stay and, when those 60GB units are depleted, the 80GB model will take its place.
