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Pachter: DS successor could be introduced this year
Wedbush Morgan's infamous fortune teller Michael Pachter is at it again, this time predicting that a successor to Nintendo's money-printing DS could arrive as early as this year (via Edge Online). In investor notes, Pachter said, "DS sales are solid worldwide, but are weak in Japan, leading us to expect an introduction of a new device in Japan before the end of the calendar year." Looking at the Japanese hardware sales, the PSP has overtaken the DS almost every week this year with few exceptions.The logic falls in line with recent comments from Nintendo's Satoru Iwata, who said a Wii successor would come only when the Wii itself begins to slow in sales (read: unlikely for some time). If a new Nintendo portable is to be announced, our best guess would be an announcement at October's Tokyo Game Show. That's assuming Nintendo can swim their way out of that kingdom-sized pool of cash.
Pachter: Nintendo has not abandoned the core audience
Not everyone stumbled away from Nintendo's E3 presser feeling lightheaded and sick to their stomach. Some, like Wedbush Morgan soothsayer Michael Pachter, felt that the presentation was on point, offering an "even more positive view" of the company, while adding belief that Nintendo has not yet turned its back on the 'critically important' hardcore crowd."We think that Nintendo focused upon building upon its formidable lead with the mass market," notes Pachter, "and do not consider the lack of major hard core game announcements to be an abandonment of its core." Granted, this is a man who has the ear of investors and not necessarily gamers, and given that the analyst anticipates Nintendo to report revenue of more than $3.9 billion for 2009's fiscal first quarter, with an estimated $17.7 billion expected for the year, try to at least look surprised when his world views don't align perfectly with your own.
Wii Warm Up: Do you feel abandoned?
Despite what Michael Pachter said yesterday, many actually do feel that Nintendo has forgotten their core gamers and are instead shifting the company's focus to more casual titles. But, the question is are you one of these doubters? Do you think that Nintendo doesn't care about making new Zelda and Mario games for you anymore, or are they simply too impressed with how wonderful stuff like Wii Fit does in sales? Do you think that they'll put out other installments in the franchises that we all know and love, but the games will be reworked so as to be unrecognizable when compared to previous iterations? Do you think this is all a big fuss over nothing?
Pachter: Nintendo financial earnings greater than expected
Michael Pachter is of the mind that Nintendo made a whole ton of money during the second quarter. Nintendo is supposed to release figures on the 30th, but that hasn't stopped Pachter and Wedbush Morgan from coming up with some figures of their own. Pachter says the company will report earnings of ¥421 billion ($3.91 billion) and raise their yearly estimate to ¥1,907 billion ($17.7 billion)."Nintendo's recent financial performance has been spectacular and we expect this to continue in FY:09," Pachter commented, going on further to state that "Nintendo's Wii and DS appear to be selling even better in FY:09 than in FY:08, and we believe the momentum will last through the end of FY:09." This is likely due to some smart advertising campaigns, which had female celebs showing off how awesome the handheld is. Plus, you know, the handheld has tons of amazing games.
Pachter: Nintendo hasn't abandoned core gamers
If you were disappointed with Nintendo's E3 showing, then odds are you have a lot of like-minded folks to agree with you. A majority of the industry feels that Nintendo's showing at E3 wasn't really, uh ... good. If you're not looking for real games, then you were probably happy with Wii Music.Pachter thinks that Nintendo hasn't abandoned the core gamers. He went on to say that "some hardcore gamers were critical of Nintendo's failure to announce new Mario and Zelda games at the show... we think that Nintendo focused upon building upon its formidable lead with the mass market, and do not consider the lack of major hard core game announcements to be an abandonment of its core." Interesting, but what do you all think? Did Nintendo abandon the core gamer or is the hope for a new Zelda and Mario game sometime in the future proof that they haven't forgotten about those core folk?
E3 'headed for extinction,' says Pachter
Watch out, E3! According to Wedbush Morgan analyst and man Michael Pachter, you could soon be heading the way of the Dodo, the Quagga, and decent Sonic games. In a note to investors titled "Entertainment Software: E3 2008 Review: The Bad, The Great, and the BORING!," the famously quotable analyst concluded that the latest E3 was a crushing disappointment, and described the event as "ill-timed," "boring," and "headed for extinction." Oh, Pachty, you sure know how to make a major industry event down on its luck feel special!The show, which has been criticized by other industry figures of late, isn't beyond saving itself, but Pachter thinks it should be pulled back to no later than early June, and that "the spectacle should be restored by increasing the size of the show space."To give this piece of news a Nintendo slant, we'll add that Pachter deemed Nintendo's presentation to be "just right", but did note the grumblings from core gamers that not enough announcements were made for them.
Analysts predict big jump in May game sales
Even though NPD is set to release its monthly drip of "official" North American console and game sales data later this week, some impatient people just can't sit on their hands and wait. Those people include game industry analysts, many of whom are predicting a large year-over-year jump in software revenues for the month of May.The exact size of the predicted jump ranges from a 30% increase from Lazard Capital Market's Colin Sebastian to a 43% bump from Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson. Medbush Morgan's prolific prognosticator Michael Pachter splits the difference, predicting a 39% increase in sales. Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero III and Rock Band are expected to continue their sustained strong sales, along with relative newcomers Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii and Grand Theft Auto IV.Speaking of GTA4, Pachter doesn't think the game will lead to a significant bump in system sales for either the PS3 or Xbox 360. He forecasts the Wii will again dominate monthly console sales with 750,000 units sold, compared to 250,000 Xbox 360s and 225,000 PS3s. In other news, we predict the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.
Pachter: EA will raise Take-Two bid, it'll get rejected, merger will still happen
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter expects EA will own Take-Two when this buyout saga comes to an end, but before that, there's a few more chapters to write. GameDaily reprints the analyst extraordinaire's latest commentary where he envisions EA will increase its bid by a "modest amount" and attempt a "friendly deal." Pachter surmises Take-Two will reject the offer, especially after it recently talked about working the Wall Street corner for other opportunities. Pachter expects EA wants this deal done before this holiday, but that Take-Two management has an incentive to wait until after April 1, 2009, due to some stock finagling (remember, in the end, this is all about money). When all is said and done, though, Pachter believes EA will acquire Take-Two. He expects once EA walks away from the table after the next rejection, and it proves there are no other bidders salivating for Take-Two, that all parties will meet again and work something out.
Pachter: American Wii Fit shortages due to weak dollar
Americans have been buffeted with news of our nation's pending recession and the devaluation of our dollar for months now, but in a market with such standardized prices, the American video game industry and game consumers haven't really felt the effect of our economic instability. However, according to industry analyst and prognosticator extraordinaire Michael Pachter, our pecuniary puniness is the cause for the current American Wii Fit shortage -- nearly four times as many copies of the title made their way to Europe, where the Euro, unlike the dollar, is gaining strength.In Pachter's own words, "We're seeing companies ignore their largest market simply because they can make a greater profit elsewhere." You don't need to be a revered industry analyst to notice that -- the title, which sells for $90 in the U.S., is speedily selling for the equivalent of $140 in Europe. Pachter also remarks that Americans can afford to wait for future shipments of the title, as Nintendo knows "that Americans will be just as fat a few months from now." Words hurt, Pachter. Words hurt.
Pachter: Unbalanced Wii Fit shipments due to weak dollar
Superstar game industry analyst Michael Pachter told the LA Times that Nintendo's smaller North American supply of Wii Fit units can be blamed, just like everything else that has anything to do with business, on the value of the dollar. "The shortage demonstrates one consequence of the weak dollar. We're seeing companies ignore their largest market simply because they can make a greater profit elsewhere." Then -- seemingly to make sure blogs quoted him -- Pachter added, "They know that Americans will be just as fat a few months from now." The article states that about 500,000 Wii Fits were shipped to the U.S., versus "as many as 2 million" to Europe. We think that if the disparity is indeed strategic, it has less to do with the decreasing value of the dollar, and more to do with two other trends: Nintendo of Europe's increased friendliness toward nontraditional "expanded audience" games, and European gamers' acceptance of exorbitant game prices. It's not so much that $90 is low for Wii Fit -- it's that they can get away with selling it for $140 in Europe.%Gallery-4745%
Pachter predicts PS3 beat Xbox 360 in April
Analyst Michael Pachter is sticking to his prediction that Grand Theft Auto IV provided more of a bump to the PS3 than 360 in April, predicting 290,000 in sales for Sony vs. 275,000 for Microsoft's box. It's worth noting though that Pachter also predicted PS3 would top 360 in March, days before the NPD reported an Xbox 360 win.Now, does any of this mean that either of those systems (or the sales of those systems combined) beat the Wii? No, of course not, don't be ridiculous. Pachter predicts that 600,000 Wiis flew off of shelves in April, likely aided by the release of Mario Kart Wii and the unslakable waggle thirst the general populace seems to have discovered.
Pachter expects 2008 to be 'significantly better' for Midway
In the wake of yesterday's Q1 earnings announcement from Midway, financial prognosticator Michael Pachter has come forth with his predictions for the company, stating that despite suffering considerable losses during the quarter, the analyst expects the company to perform "significantly better" over the course of year compared to 2007.According to Pachter, his firm, Wedbush Morgan, continues to advise investors to hold onto any shares of Midway stock that they may have collecting dust in their portfolios, adding belief that Midway "can generate sustainable profits if it can deliver revenues above the $300 million annual level." While possible, Pachter himself lowered his 2008 revenue estimates for the company to $265 million from $300 million based on what he called Midway's "weak first half results," as well as lowered his expectations for 2009. The analyst noted belief that Midway hit rock bottom "quite a while ago," and thus it seems like there is nowhere to go but up. We're just not sure that you can get to the top by clinging to Batman's cape.[Via press release]
Pachter expects strong Activision Q4 financial results
In advance of this Thursday's release of Activision's Q4 financial results, Wedbush Morgan analyst extraordinaire Michael Pachter expects Activision's sales were up 88% this quarter over last year, based on NPD data. GameDaily reports Activision's guidance expected revenues of about $350 million this quarter, but Pachter believes it's more like $425 million.Pachter further notes that Activision may see revenues decline this fiscal year as sales from Guitar Hero III and Call of Duty 4 wane, though the big thing for investors remains the approaching merger with Vivendi Games. Activision Blizzard should be a reality in the next few weeks and Pachter maintains a "Buy" rating on the company.
Pachter: Nintendo sales forecasts 'exceedingly conservative'
Michael Pachter, the industry analyst we all know, thinks that Nintendo isn't giving themselves enough credit and that they stand to sell far more than they realize. Nintendo, who sees themselves selling 187 million units of software for the DS (up from 185.6 million units the previous year), as well as 98.6 million units of hardware (up from 70.6 million units last year), might be pushing more product than they think. Pachter says the company is "executing flawlessly," and we're hard-pressed to find any reason to disagree with him. As for his thoughts on what Nintendo will sell, he sees the DS software sales rising past Nintendo's projections to 210 million units (wow). On the hardware side, he doesn't care to comment on an exact figure, so we'll just leave it at that.Do you expect 210 million games to be sold on the DS this year? With some big titles around the corner, which do you see selling the best on the handheld?
NY Times tackles Wii's tie-in ratio
The Wii has comfortably outsold its rivals since it first launched, but it does lag behind in at least one other respect: the number of games sold per console. The low software tie-in ratio of the Wii is hardly a new issue, but it's one that shouldn't be ignored.According to a new article in The New York Times, Wii owners typically purchase only 3.7 games a year, a figure that compares unfavorably with Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 owners (4.7 and 4.6 games per year respectively). This, argues the article, is just one of the effects of the expanded audience that Nintendo has captured -- as the New York Times piece observes, most Wii owners seem to treat their console as little more than a Wii Sports machine.There are solutions, however, with Wii Fanboy favorite Michael Pachter suggesting third-party publishers should adopt a different approach to marketing their wares. As Pachter puts it, "Advertising on GameInformer and 1up.com just isn't reaching [the expanded] audience."[Via Joystiq]
Pachter: Wii Fit to raise Wii demand, keep shortages going
Aside from his prediction that he thinks Wii Fit will sell 3-4 million this year, Michael Pachter has grabbed another estimation out from within his bag of tricks: Wii Fit will keep Wii shortages going as it will increase demand for the console. Pachter cited Nintendo's plan to market the crap out of Wii Fit, stating "the increased buzz will drive increased demand for the already difficult to find Wii hardware." Well, we know the UK is crazy over Wii Fit, but Nintendo shouldn't have as hard a time filling demand over there as they have had here in the states. On Pachter's part, this is a pretty safe play to make. The preorders at Amazon are going through the roof and with Wii Fit being on Good Morning, America recently, we're sure the public is very receptive to the product. We're still not sure about that price tag, though.%Gallery-4745%
Pachter: Wii Fit could keep Wii shortage going
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pacter states that after attending a recent Nintendo event that he now believes in the sales power of Wii Fit. He thinks Nintendo's fun for the fatties system could "cause a new boom in demand for the Wii." Adding that Nintendo's marketing campaign will aim directly at casual players and make the already scarce system even more difficult to find. Pachter retains a "Buy" rating for Nintendo's stock and maintains the company's profit guidance is conservative. He believes Nintendo's momentum isn't stopping anytime soon. Wii Fit is available in North America beginning May 19 for $90.
Pachter: Wii wins March, PS3 outsells Xbox 360
With the NPD numbers expected this week, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter blessed the plebs with his predictions for the March retail numbers. GameDaily transcribed the word of Pachter, in which he fortells of sales being up 47% from $579 million to $850 million. He expects software sales were driven by some game called Super Smash Bros. Brawl, along with Army of Two, Rainbow Six Vegas 2 and MLB 2008. Pachter believes the Wii and DS each sold 700K units in March and that Nintendo had diverted for a while a significant portion of its Wii supply to Europe -- due to the weakening dollar making sales less profitable -- but believes supply has hit demand in Europe and the US can expect more units soon. He also predicts sales of around 365K for the PS3 and 310K for the Xbox 360. He also notes given the US' current economic situation that the game industry appears to be "recession-resistant" so far.
Pachter: More DS domination on the cards for March
Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter has once again whipped out his crystal ball and claimed that the DS (hand-in-hand with the Brawl-fuelled Wii) romped to victory in the U.S. during March.Pachty estimates that the handheld shifted 700,000 units, more than double the number of PSPs sold, which he places at 300,000. An impressive margin to be sure, particularly after the DS coughed and wheezed its way to a narrow 21,000-unit sales victory in January.Will Pachter's predictions be proven correct? We'll know very shortly, as soon as NPD coughs up our monthly data!
Pachter: Wii to sell 700,000 in March
With the official NPD numbers due any day now, Michael Pachter has tossed out his prediction for the winner of March in the U.S.: Nintendo. He is claiming that the Wii will have moved 700,000 units in the month, with Smash Bros. Brawl being the big reason. Even though he says that Nintendo is still sending more units to Europe than the U.S., he says that March will be different because of, obviously, Smash Bros. Brawl.And, even better is Pachter's prediction that April will see Nintendo doing even better, with both Mario Kart Wii and the Pokemon Mystery Dungeon sequels being huge draws. Let's hope he's right!
