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EVE Evolved: EVE needs real colonisation now
MMOs have absolutely exploded in popularity over the past decade, with online gaming growing from a niche hobby to a global market worth billions of dollars each year. Once dominated by subscription games like EverQuest and World of Warcraft, recent years have seen free-to-play games take centre stage. Global MMO subscriptions have been reportedly shrinking since 2010, and EVE doesn't appear to be immune to this industry-wide trend. Though February 2013's figures showed EVE subscriptions have technically grown year-on-year, those numbers were published just after the Chinese server relaunch, and CCP hasn't released any new figures since. Developers have done a good job of catering to current subscribers and polishing existing gameplay with the past few expansions, but the average daily login numbers are still the same as they were over four years ago. EVE will undoubtedly hook in plenty of new and returning subscribers when its deep space colonisation gameplay with player-built stargates and new hidden solar systems is implemented, but time could be running out on these features. Hefty competition is due in the next few years from upcoming sandbox games such as Star Citizen, EverQuest Next, Camelot Unchained, and Elite: Dangerous, and CCP will have to release something big soon to bring in some fresh blood. In this week's EVE Evolved, I ask whether CCP should focus on new players and suggest plans for two relatively simple colonisation-based expansions that could get EVE a significant part of the way toward its five-year goal in just one year.
World of Warcraft loses 1.3M subscribers since February, down to 8.3M
Today's Activision-Blizzard financial reports states World of Warcraft took a subscriber hit this quarter, losing 1.3 million players since February. The loss brings the total number of WoW players down to 8.3 million, its lowest level since the launch of the Burning Crusade expansion in 2007. Subscriber levels have fallen by about a third since WoW's post-Cataclysm peak of 12 million subscribers. The loss is hardly unusual -- you have to remember that WoW is a 9-year-old game, and we're at a pretty uninteresting time in the expansion cycle. Have we mentioned yet that we're really excited to see if Blizzard is announcing a new MMO at BlizzCon?
World of Warcraft subscriber numbers remain at 10.2 million
Blizzard announced today in the investors call that the World of Warcraft population remains stable at 10.2 million subscribers. This is after the announced dip to 10.2 million in February 2012. Activision-Blizzard Blizzard Entertainment's World of Warcraft® Remains #1 Subscription-Based MMORPG with Approximately 10.2 Million Subscribers as of 3/31/12 source In other WoW news from the call, Blizzard has renewed its license with NetEase for China distribution: "On March 20, 2012, Blizzard Entertainment announced that they renewed their license with NetEase for the distribution of World of Warcraft in mainland China. The new license will continue for an additional three years following the expiration of the current license agreement." There is no indication of specific North American / European numbers, nor is there any specific indication of when Mists will release. It's open warfare between Alliance and Horde in Mists of Pandaria, World of Warcraft's next expansion. Jump into five new levels with new talents and class mechanics, try the new monk class, and create a pandaren character to ally with either Horde or Alliance. Look for expansion basics in our Mists FAQ, or dig into our spring press event coverage for more details!
Star Wars: The Old Republic has 1.3 million active subs, new content packs coming
We all know that the Star Wars: The Old Republic galaxy is a huge place, but thanks to some new numbers from EA's 4th quarter financial reports, we now know exactly how huge it is. According to the report, SWTOR is home to 1.3 million active subscribers (down from 1.7 million as announced in March). On top of that bit of information, the report also reveals that two new content packs will be available for players sometime in the first financial quarter. We don't know a thing about these content packs yet, except that they're (at least tentatively) titled Legacy (presumably the current Legacy patch) and Allies, so conspiracy theorists, start your engines. Let the speculation begin!
EA reveals SWTOR subscription and sales numbers, beats financial predictions [Updated]
It looks like Star Wars: The Old Republic didn't let its daddy down, as EA has reported much better sales than expected for the December quarter, largely thanks to the runaway sales of the new MMO title (as well as many of EA's other heavy-hitters). The company ended up earning an adjusted $344 million for a total net loss of $205 million, which isn't too shabby if you consider how much money just went into the development and launch of The Old Republic. Perhaps most interestingly to players, however, is the fact that EA has reported sales of more than 2 million units of The Old Republic with about 1.7 million subscribers. Those are the highest (and the hardest) numbers we've heard so far. EA's Chief Financial Advisor, Eric Brown, stated in an interview that EA managed to pull in more SWTOR subscribers than the studio had initially anticipated. He added that at launch, the studio was able to add a great number of users per server courtesy of some technical improvements. If you're economically minded and want to get the full, dirty, stock market details, just click past the link below. [Thanks to Gabriel for the tip!] [Update: Darth Hater has compiled some additional TOR-related statistics and Q&A from today's EA earnings call: "2,000,000+ copies sold, 40% sold through Origin; 1,700,000+ active subscribers, 1 million concurrent." The company also notes that "Active subscribers means anyone paying OR in their trial period. MOST of those 1.7m are paying at this point."]
World of Warcraft profits on the rise in China
Sister site Massively reported earlier today that World of Warcraft isn't just doing fine in China, it's doing extremely well. According to Gamasutra, the Chinese WoW operator NetEase just posted its Q3 revenue for the year, and the profits are doing nothing but rising. This is a little surprising given the information from the Activision Blizzard investor call earlier this month, which reported a loss of subscribers, mainly in the east. Regardless, NetEase posted revenues of 2.0 billion Chinese yuan, up 39.8% -- a substantial number. In China, it seems that World of Warcraft is still a force to be reckoned with, dropping subscriber numbers or not.
EVE Evolved: Expansions, not excuses
Over the last few months, the phrase "Flying in Space" has been increasingly used by both EVE Online's developers and its players to describe features other than those of Incarna. It seems like a redundant phrase as all of EVE's gameplay currently takes place in space, but the distinction has become necessary when discussing the allocation of development resources. Members of EVE's player-elected Council of Stellar Management have recently spearheaded a wave of new complaints about the level of resources dedicated to EVE's in-space features, claiming that developers have been left without the resources necessary to do a good job. In the previous three EVE Evolved columns, I discussed the upcoming nullsec revamp scheduled to begin this winter and the incredible new gameplay players might get as part of it. Members of the CSM know exactly how many people will be working on that revamp, and although those numbers haven't been made public, several delegates have gone public with their disapproval. EVE's subscription fees are currently paying for the development of CCP's upcoming fantasy MMO World of Darkness and its ambitious console MMOFPS DUST 514, leaving few resources for new EVE gameplay and content. In this week's EVE Evolved, I look back at the success of EVE's first blockbuster expansion and ask why development on EVE Online has dramatically decreased over the past two and a half years.
Popular Science has sold 10,000 iPad magazine subscriptions
When Apple introduced its new subscription terms earlier this year, Popular Science embraced this change and introduced subscription-based billing into its iPad-based magazine. Now that six weeks have elapsed, publisher Bonnier Technology Group is happy to report that Pop Sci now has 10,000 iPad subscribers. Each subscriber pays US$14.99 for one-year of access to the magazine's digital content. Gregg Hano, VP-group publisher at the Bonnier Technology Group, says the publisher had no idea what to expect when it launched its magazine subscription and is "very excited" by these early results. Though this 10K figure is small compared to the 1.3 million paid print subscribers, it is a step in the right direction for the publisher. The biggest drawback to Apple's subscription model is the lack of subscriber information provided to the publisher. Subscriber information stays within Apple's iTunes system, and Hano admits the publisher currently has no demographic information on the individuals purchasing its digital magazine. Continued growth may require the publisher to develop an alternative method to find out who is buying and reading its iPad magazine.
The Game Archaeologist and the NeverEnding Quest: The highlights
To many veteran MMO players, the opening horns of EverQuest's score are enough to trigger vivid memories, violent hallucinations, and an unstoppable desire to leap through the computer screen to return to Norrath. It all depends, of course, on which MMO you first cut your teeth, and while many gamers would claim titles like World of Warcraft as their first, there is a large contingent who will confess that EQ was their first MMO lover. In fact, before WoW came on the scene in 2004, EverQuest was the gold standard of MMOs for a half-decade -- it was insanely popular, perfectly addictive, and absolutely revolutionary. It was a giant that roamed the virtual lands of those days, a giant that continues to forge new grounds well over a decade from its inception. It was 1995 when John Smedley realized the potential for online gaming and roped in Brad McQuaid and Steve Clover to start putting together an online RPG for SOE. What began as a small project ballooned into a crazy endeavor as the growing team created a monster RPG the likes the world had never seen before -- a game that would forever shape the MMO genre. This month, the Game Archaeologist is going after one of the biggest treasures of recorded history as we unearth the secrets to EverQuest's popularity, legacy, and longevity. The first step on our journey is to look at some of the highlights that made EQ what it is today.
Big cable loses 500,000 subscribers in Q3, we neglect to send flowers
Last quarter was the first time ever that US pay TV subscription rates were down. Now, according to GigaOM's calculations, big cable suffered another set back in Q3, waving goodbye to over 500,000 subscribers in total. Comcast was saddled with over half of the carnage and lost 275,000 customers, while Time Warner took a 155,000 subscriber hit. Charter Communications and Cablevision fared slightly better, but still added 63,800 and 24,500 respectively to the industry pit of despair. Naturally, the blame game for the poor numbers was aimed squarely at the weak economy and increased competition from over-the-top video providers. Before you call the undertaker away from his wrestling day job, though, remember that cable's traditional backstop is to raise prices for remaining customers -- vicious cycle, anyone? In fact, Comcast shared on its Q3 earnings call that average customer revenue rose by ten percent year over year to $136 a month. Charter's similarly jumped by nine percent to $126, and while Cablevision's didn't increase by the same rate, monthly revenue per customer still amounted to a whopping $149 a month. So whether the reason is cord cutting or simply hard times, it's hard to get worked up over self-inflicted wounds.
The state of the subscription MMO: Revenues up, WoW's stranglehold slipping
While MMO subscription numbers are largely hidden from public eyes, GamesIndustry.biz found a report by Screen Digest that delivered solid figures for the rate of subscription growth and revenue from the Western market. It's a classic case of "good news, bad news" for the industry. The good news is that MMO subscriptions rose from $1.4 billion in 2008 to $1.6 billion in 2009, a respectable increase, especially when you consider the increase of free-to-play and microtransaction titles. This number is expected to hit the $2 billion mark by 2014. The bad news is that the average revenue per player is down 10% during the same time period due to "the popularity of cheaper premium subscription services." So more people are playing and paying, but they're spending less per person. The analysis noted that World of Warcraft's domination in the subscription MMO market is slipping, going from 60% to 54% during that time period. Screen Digest says not to count the subscription MMO out, however: "We maintain our view that subscriptions will continue to play an important role in the MMOG sector. Certain consumer groups and types of service are well suited to subscriptions but we also acknowledge the growing success and adoption of microtransaction-based MMOGs as an alternative business model for operators."
Craig Morrison talks MMO numbers (or the lack thereof)
Ah, the numbers game. It's often quite comical when it comes to MMORPGs and their die-hard fans (or detractors, as the case may be). Aside from Blizzard, very few MMO development houses release real numbers relating to their playerbases, and forum jousters are thus relegated to citing guesstimates and, in most cases, pure supposition sprung from the likes of wildly inaccurate measuring tools such as Xfire or the late MMOGchart. Funcom executive producer and Age of Conan game director Craig Morrison weighs in on the perplexing state of MMO number-crunching on his personal blog, offering a bit of insight as to why hard data is, well, hard to come by. He cites a lack of context for the near-universal reticence of developers when it comes to publicizing their community sizes. "Without standard definitions everything ends up in that vague, murky and entirely subjective middle ground... and a middle ground that very few could reasonably be expected to accept as being worthwhile exploring in a business sense," he writes. So what's his solution? In broad terms, he mentions a rating system, citing television's Nielsen metrics as well as cinema box office figures as semi-comparable standards. While such a system probably wouldn't stop the endless fan bickering, it might at least provide an answer to the question of how each individual company defines success.
PAX 2010: Selena Gomez is Wizard101's new damsel in distress
She plays a fledgling spellcaster in Disney's Wizards of Waverly Place, but soon Selena Gomez will be taking it to the next level. KingsIsle just announced that Gomez will be coming to the magical world of Wizard101 as a princess in distress who needs a bit of saving. The actress-musician agreed to be featured in Wizard101 as a sort of cross-promotion for her latest album. The story goes that nefarious forces have kidnapped Gomez from our world into the layered realms of Wizard101, and she must be rescued and returned to Earth so that she can finish her epic video. As our world is part of the spiral (Earth is just non-magical, hence why Professor Ambrose is so startled when player characters arrive at Wizard City), this crossover doesn't break the lore of the game. Instead, KingsIsle hopes that the popular star will appeal to its core tween demographic. Hit the jump for even more juicy tidbits from PAX Prime!
The Daily Grind: How much do you care about subscription numbers as a consumer?
We've all heard that infamous World of Warcraft line -- "12 million people can't be wrong." People say it whenever a person doubts that World of Warcraft is the "omgbestestgameevar!11" but how much weight does that line actually hold?Specifically, what we want to know here at Massively is how much do you pay attention to a game's perceived subscription numbers? Do you avoid games that don't seem to be doing so well? Or are you the type of person who just pulls the game off of the shelf due to content and content alone? Does a game have to have some huge number of subscribers to be successful in your eyes?You know the drill. Words go in the comment box below. Typing is super effective!
The Daily Grind: Your thoughts on Jeff Strain's NCsoft departure?
As we've reported on for the past two days, ArenaNet co-founder Jeff Strain has left his position at NCsoft and is moving on to new pastures. While his former co-founding partner, Mike O'Brien, has said pretty affirmatively that his departure won't affect the development of Guild Wars 2, we're still interested in what you think of all of this.It's certainly a very sudden and unexpected move, especially when you take into account the departure of David Reid as well, even if they both left for unrelated reasons. With Aion coming closer and closer to a launch in the United States, and NCsoft pushing to be #2 in the realm of subscription numbers, the timing for these departures seems to be odd.But, we're not going to waste this space with our thoughts, we want yours! Drop what you think of all of this into the comment box below, and let your voices ring across the internet!
Former Warhammer Online GM gives perspective on game's decline
At Massively we must often report on declining subscription numbers and subsequent layoffs in the MMO industry, just as we do when the games we love are healthy and growing. When you look beyond the numbers though, such industry statistics are ultimately about people whose lives have been negatively impacted. They face uncertainty in their career and likely have tough times ahead. Case in point: We've written about the Mythic Entertainment layoffs from the view of an outside observer of the MMO industry, but of course there's a side to this that only someone who's worked there can really convey. Some have a story they'd like to tell, like Jeremy Monken, former games reviewer for a D.C. newspaper turned Warhammer Online GM at Mythic Entertainment.
Mythic wages WAR in the East
While NCsoft prepares to invade the West with Aion this September, Mythic has their own preemptive RvR strike planned for the East. Both Mythic and Gigamedia are bringing Warhammer Online to Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau on June 25th. This means people can now play WAR in North America, Europe, Oceania, and Asia. That's quite a global presence.It will be interesting to see what impact this has on WAR's subscriber count in the next quarter. When WAR originally launched in September 2008, they sold over 750,000 copies. That number dropped to 300,000 by December 2008. After a couple big marketing campaigns (recruit a friend and re-enlistment) and a launch in Russia, WAR's numbers held steady at 300,000 in March 2009.Could this Eastern launch propel them beyond the 300,000 mark again? Based on all the Land of the Dead coverage and impressions we've seen, the new live expansion should have some sort of positive effect on the game as well. I guess we'll have to wait until the next EA earnings call to find out, which should take place in August.
Blizzard moves from #47 to #1 in studio rankings
According to a recent list by Develop magazine, Blizzard has dethroned Nintendo to become the most bankable game studio in the world. I'm surprised they weren't there already, but I guess it's just this side of possible that Nintendo is hard to budge. Develop's top 100 is compiled by their editorial team and accounts for total sales, reputation within the industry, and a variety of other criteria. When all was said and done, the editors wrote, Warcraft "continues to do the sort of numbers previously reserved for crime syndicates and smaller members of the United Nations." Nicely put, but what I find most bizarre about the list is that Blizzard jumped from #47 to #1 within the space of a year (you'll find Blizzard's 2008 listing on page 82 of a highly annoying-to-navigate Issuu archive). While part of that's due to the merge with Activision, Develop claims that Wrath of the Lich King being the fastest-selling PC game in history was the greatest contributing factor. Hang on. WoW was doing just fine even before Wrath hit, so how did Blizzard manage to get itself ranked behind do-little studios with sales of around $1-2 million per game on the 2008 list?
Warhammer holds its ground with 300k subs
A minor note in EA's most recent earnings report revealed that as of March 31, 2009, Warhammer Online had over 300,000 subscribers, which is right about where it was at in December 2008. What's that we hear in the distance? I do believe it's the sound of thousands of haters and fanboys doing glorious forum battle.Three hundred thousand players is actually a pretty good number these days. In fact, CCP was extremely happy to announce hitting the 300k+ mark today, on EVE's 6th birthday. Most MMO analysts would probably say WAR is one of the top 5 subscription MMOs in Europe/North America.On the other hand, EA and Mythic can't be too happy about the current population situation since Mark Jacobs has made a couple famous remarks about population numbers in the past. The first is that WAR would be successful if it had north of 500k subscribers. The second is that 250k subscribers doesn't look too good to investors when you've made an initial investment of over $50M and have high maintenance costs. You might also want to factor in that Mythic started a recruit-a-friend program, free trial, and launched in Russia all during the period of the quarter being reported on.With Aion set for release in fall 2009, WAR may soon face some stiff competition on the PvP/RvR front. A lot may be riding on Mythic's new live expansion, The Land of the Dead set for release this summer.
WoW subscriber numbers still increasing, multi-boxers trivial
There has been a long thread about WoW and the philosophical changes and approaches over the past four years, and in particular to some of the larger design decisions made recently (dual specs). In it Ghostcrawler makes an offhand remark about WoW's subscriber numbers:"Wrath of the Lich King is still selling very well and our subscribers are increasing."Now I want to be clear that this was made off-hand and is not from an official earnings statement. But that doesn't discount it from being full of truthiness; and nonetheless, this is rather significant in that it's been a while since we last heard any indication of current subscriber numbers. To some this news won't be very surprising, given that Wrath of the Lich King has been a huge hit. But others might raise an eyebrow that after five months of Wrath things are still up-ticking.He also mentions the ever hot topic of multi-boxers:
