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Analyst Roundup: Bullish on the iPhone
UBS analyst Maynard Um says that Apple could sell 7 million iPhones in the first quarter of the year if they sell a low-cost, 4GB model, according to Electronista. Citing "checks" with industry partners, Um claims a 4GB model is in the works, though it's unclear if it will be a regular iPhone at a lower price point, or a smaller iPhone nano device rumored to be in development. While it may cannibalize sales from the current low-end 8GB model, a significantly lower price could add 1.5 million more sales for the quarter. Generator Research's Andrew Sheehy goes even further, projecting that Apple could sell 77 million iPhones by 2013, according to Philip Elmer-DeWitt. Sheehy has three reasons why Apple will dominate the smartphone business: Apple's ability to combine hardware and software, making it easy for users to consume The App Store's vertical platform model leads the market so far Smartphones are the only kind of phone that Apple makes, unlike other handset manufacturers like Nokia. Sheehy says that, among other recommendations, Apple must broaden its offering to include higher- and lower-end units, including tablets and entry-level smartphones: All with access to the App Store. He also says that Apple will capitalize on the paralysis brought on by a weak global economy, and use its cash to get "one or two design cycles ahead of the competition." "When rivals start spending again, they may discover that Apple has built an unassailable lead," Sheehy writes.
Citi reiterates AAPL 'buy' rating, cuts price target
Citi analyst Richard Gardner repeated the firm's "buy" recommendation for Apple stock, but reduced his estimate through 2011 to "reflect a more conservative view of consumer spending," according to the Associated Press. Gardner reduced his 12-month price target to $132 from $153. He noted "soft" iPhone shipments in the last quarter of 2008 and conservative guidance for the first quarter of 2009 as reasons behind the cut. "We view weakness as a buying opportunity," Gardner said. If Apple's stock were to drop by $7 or $8 before the company's Q1 2009 conference call on January 21, "[Citi] would be aggressive buyers." He expects the company will announce a profit of $1.42 per share for Q4 2008 during the call. AAPL was down by about $1.45 in afternoon trading. [Via Mac Observer.]
Apple's Q1 2009 conference call scheduled for January 21
Mark your calendars: Apple plans to conduct its first-quarter conference call on Wednesday, January 21 at 5 p.m. Eastern (2 p.m. Pacific). Apple executives will discuss the company's financial performance over the last quarter, and give their guidance as to how the next quarter is shaping up. Audio from the conference call will be broadcast via QuickTime. When the time comes, you can visit this page and listen in. (Bonus: Check out the old QuickTime Player screenshot in the "Q1-2009" graphic.) In Apple's last conference call, CEO Steve Jobs joined in the fun -- a rarity -- to discuss sales, margins, cash reserves, and Apple's competition. Prepare for plenty of hyperbole and chipper "forward-looking statements" -- as well as dialtone to dialtone coverage from us here at TUAW. Be sure to check back on the 21st. [Via MacDailyNews.]
Apple releases 2009 proxy statement
Yesterday, Apple released a proxy statement detailing the financial compensation that executives enjoy as part of their participation on the board of directors. Steve Jobs retained his $1 salary for 2008, but has over 5.5 million shares of Apple stock, which is worth over $500 million on paper. Jobs is worth about $5.7 billion, thanks largely to the fact that he's Disney's largest individual shareholder. Fidelity Investments continues to be Apple's largest investor with over 46 million shares of stock. There are five shareholder proposals up for voting this time around: Proposal 1 asks to re-elect the board of directors, consisting of Steve Jobs, William Campbell, Millard Drexler, Al Gore, Andrea Jung, Arthur Levinson, Eric Schmidt, and Jerry York. Proposal 2 asks for more transparency surrounding Apple's political contributions. Proposal 3 asks the company to adopt a statement supporting universal health care for everyone, and not just employees. Proposal 4 asks the company to release a report on corporate strategies surrounding climate change and greenhouse gas emissions before July. Proposal 5 asks to adopt a policy that gives shareholders more input on executive compensation. (Thanks, Scott!) The board of directors, perhaps not surprisingly, recommends approving the first proposal, and rejecting the other four. The proxy statement is available from Apple's Investor Relations website, and will not be mailed to shareholders unless requested. [Via MacDailyNews.]
Munster: New Macs for MWSF, small iPhone by second quarter '09
Our favorite-named analyst, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, predicts that Apple will announce new Mac models at Macworld Expo, and a smaller iPhone for the March quarter. Piper Jaffray expects that Apple will sell 45 million iPhones during 2009, though that estimate is predicated on the fact that Apple will release a lower-cost iPhone model early in the year, priced between $99 and $149. As for Macworld Expo, the expectation is that there won't be any groundbreaking announcements, since Phil Schiller will be giving the presentation. They do expect new iMac or Mac mini models, however. Piper Jaffray is maintaining its "buy" rating, and $235 price target, on shares of AAPL. The stock was up slightly during morning trading. [Via StreetInsider.]
AAPL falls $6.27 during rough trading day
AAPL fell 6.57 percent today after the Macworld announcements yesterday and a general retreat among tech-sector stocks. The company's stock closed at $89.16 per share, and over 42 million shares changed hands. A lot of the selling was done last night in after-hours trading, with the stock opening the day's trading this morning around $91 a share. In related news today, Oppenheimer Funds cut its rating on Apple stock from "outperform" to "perform," based largely on the fact that Jobs will not present the keynote speech at Macworld Expo next month. Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner wrote a note to clients, saying "we don't know why Steve Jobs has pulled out of his annual address at Macworld [...] Whatever the reason, the unexpected announcement has underscored the greatest risk to Apple's long-term success -- its dependence on Jobs' health and its apparent lack of a succession plan." AAPL has remained off its 52-week low of $79.14, which it recorded on November 21.
Analyst Roundup: Morgan Stanley pooh-poohs, iPhone sales looking bright
Morgan Stanley analysts yesterday cut AAPL's price target to $95, mostly citing the weak economy. They said that despite price cuts, extreme interest in the iPhone, Mac users' high satisfaction, and marketshare momentum for Mac sales, the quarter will be slow for Apple. Blog Notable Calls said it wouldn't have been surprised if AAPL slipped by five points yesterday, but instead the stock gained 34 cents a share before the closing bell. On a brighter note, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu sees promise in iPhone gift cards, according to Fortune's Apple 2.0 blog. As with any gift card, Apple collects revenue from the customer up front. However, Apple can't report the revenue until the phone is activated, which will likely be during the first quarter of next year. Wu anticipates Apple will sell 6 million iPhone handsets during the company's fiscal Q1 2009, which includes October, November and December 2008. Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty thinks Apple will sell only 4 million that same quarter. In the same Apple 2.0 story, Philip Elmer-DeWitt notes that Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster looked at how many units Walmart might sell, after pricing details leaked on Monday. He conjectures that each Walmart store could sell 1,284 iPhones in 2009, accounting for nearly 10 percent of Apple's worldwide iPhone sales. AAPL was up by $2.50 or so in midday trading.
Analyst Roundup: Black Friday pretty good for Apple
Apple met or beat analyst expectations for sales over the weekend, selling 13 Macs and 3.4 iPhones every hour, according to one Piper Jaffray estimate. Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu said that Apple's Black Friday promotions helped drive retail store traffic, according to reports from distributors. Wu also noted that the iPod touch is sold out at Amazon.com, which leads him to believe that Apple could sell $10 billion worth of products this quarter. Thomas Weisel Partners' Doug Reid got the impression that Apple sales were up from last year. He was less optimistic about Dell's retail performance at Best Buy locations, noting that salespeople there were not strongly recommending Dell models at 35 stores they checked. Weisel analysts expect Apple to sell 2.4 million Macs during the fourth quarter. Deutsche Bank analysts also conducted their own checks over the weekend, and found demand to be "solid," considering the current global economic woes. They expect Apple to sell 5 million iPhones this quarter, and reiterated their "buy" rating and price target of $150 per share. AAPL was down slightly in morning trading.
BusinessWeek: AAPL 'ripe for the picking'
BusinessWeek's Gene Marcial is gushing -- gushing -- over Apple stock, suggesting they're not only a good buying opportunity for those who already own some shares, but a good entry point for those who have never owned stock in the company. "The case for Apple is simple: Its stock is cheap based mainly on strong earnings and sales growth, and the outlook for further expansion of sales and profits. And the stock's profile based on such benchmarks as its technical chart pattern and price-earnings ratio affirms Apple's attraction," he writes. Marical quotes Standard & Poor's Thomas Smith, Barclays Capital's Ben Reitzes, and Needham's Charles Wolf -- all who have their own reasons to recommend buying the stock. Of 34 analysts who track the stock, 27 recommend buying and five recommend holding. Only two suggest you sell. As of this writing, Apple was up by over $7 per share at 89.75 during a generally positive session this morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up above 8,311, an increase of 265 points.
AAPL hits 52-week low, cries itself to sleep
Apple shares today dropped to an intra-day 52-week low of a penny over $75, and rebounded to close at $80.49 per share. That was down 5.8 points from yesterday's close. This marks the lowest prices for Apple stock since the introduction of the iPhone in early 2007. Many stocks lost ground today in a broad market selloff that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average down nearly 445 points. Marketwatch.com's Rex Crum says that AAPL has lost "the iPhone premium": That is, whatever gains the company made since the introduction of the popular handset. Apple shares hit a peak of almost $203 per share late last year, but those days are long gone. If there's a silver lining to this gray cloud, it's that now might be a good time to buy. Macworld Expo is coming in January. In years past, the stock price has risen in anticipation of product announcements at the expo, leading to a selling frenzy the day of the keynote. Of course, past performance does not necessarily indicate future results. In this market, who knows?
Investigators: No evidence that poster of Jobs heart attack rumor profited
According to the San Jose Mercury News, no evidence has been found to support the claim that a teenager who posted a rumor online saying Steve Jobs has suffered a heart attack tried to profit from the lower stock price. One person involved in the investigation (who declined to be identified because it's still ongoing) said the agency hasn't unearthed any trading records that show the teen benefited from the drop. The SEC and Apple officially declined to comment. An SEC manipulation case would depend on the teenager's intentions, according to the Merc. The initial report, posted to CNN's iReport website on October 3, was publicized Silicon Alley Insider, prompting nervous investors to sell their AAPL shares. That day, the stock fell by 5.4 percent, but recovered to close down by three percent. Update: My apologies: I misread the lead. Entirely my fault.
Apple up 11 after Q4 conference call
Apple shares were higher by over 11 points in after-hours trading following a very positive Q4 conference call where the company announced a profit of $1.26 per diluted share. As we noted in our liveblog earlier, Apple posted a profit of $1.14 billion on revenues of $7.9 billion for the quarter. The company also said it had sold 2.6 million Macs, 11 million iPods, and 6.8 million iPhones in the three months ending September 27. It's safe to say we're past the 10 million mark for iPhone unit sales. Apple's margins for the quarter fell by a tenth of a percent from Q3 to 34.7 percent. During the Q3 conference call, Apple was careful to mention that margins would be lower for the quarter due to a new product announcement. That guidance was out of an abundance of caution, and executives noted that all new product announcements related to that margin guidance have been made. Apple's margins this time a year ago were 1.1 percent lower, at 33.6 percent. Steve Jobs himself was on the call, a rarity, and he crowed about how Apple sold more handsets than RIM did. He also mentioned Apple's significant cash reserves of $25 billion and lack of debt. The conference call made no mention of the exclusion of FireWire on new MacBooks, nor any confirmation that the Mac mini line could either be seeing a refresh or end-of-life.
Apple Q4 Earnings Call Liveblog
We're covering the Apple earnings call live via CoverItLive, starting at 5 pm ET; you can listen to the call in QuickTime here.Topline results from Apple: 1.26 per share on revenue of 7.9B, net quarterly profit of 1.14B. 34.7 % gross margin. 2.6M Macs shipped in the quarter, 11M iPods, 6.9M iPhones. Sold more phones than RIM (!). For up-to-the minute coverage of AAPL, check out AOL Money or BloggingStocks.
AAPL up nearly 14% among broad market gains
Shares of Apple stock closed higher today, among a widespread buying spree that pushed the Dow Industrials up a record-breaking 936 points. AAPL closed at $110.26 per share, an increase of $13.46. Nearly 55 million shares changed hands. Microsoft, Dell, Google, HP, Sun, and AT&T also posted double-digit percentage gains for the day. Analyst firm Sanford C. Bernstein upgraded Apple stock to "outperform" this morning, saying the company's short-term prognosis looks good, despite the dip in the market. Bernstein did, however, cut its price target by $50 to $135. AAPL was up slightly in after-hours trading.
Munster: Apple overestimated Q3 margin impacts
Gene Munster is skeptical that Apple's guidance of lower margins for the rest of the year in its Q3 conference call back in July, and expects the company to continue to outperform expectations. The Piper Jaffray analyst said that lower prices for NAND flash memory will offset any reductions in price for new iPods introduced last month. Munster speculates that even with an introduction of a sub-$1,000 MacBook before the end of the year, Apple's margins will remain healthy. Yes, it will have an impact, but not to the degree that Apple execs hinted in their phone call: Munster thinks margins would only fall to around 30 percent. In fact, Munster says "investors would see the lack of redesigned, lower-priced Macs as a more significant negative than they would a 30 percent GM guide in the December quarter." (Emphasis mine.) He reiterated his "buy" rating. Munster's price target for AAPL is still higher than many others (at least recently), at $250 per share. [Via Ars and AppleInsider.]
AAPL hits 52-week low again, makes up for it
In a rollercoaster day on Wall Street, Apple shares closed up a scant $1.07 today, landing at $98.14, after a broad market sell-off this morning related to anxiety surrounding global financial markets. AAPL once again hit a 52-week low of $87.54 per share around 10:45 Eastern this morning. However, shares regained momentum in a closing-bell rally, finishing up nearly half a percent. Apple shares bucked the trend of many tech stocks today: Microsoft, Google, Dell, HP, and AT&T all were less fortunate, losing between two and five percent of their value. Shares were modestly higher in early after-hours trading.
AAPL touches 52-week low, closes under $100
Apple shares today reached their lowest price point since April 2007, closing at 97.07, down 3.03 points. AAPL hit its 52-week low today, $94.65 per share, around 3:45 PM Eastern. Early in the day, the stock was jarred with false rumors from CNN's iReport service about Steve Jobs suffering a heart attack. TUAW's own Michael Rose was among the first to contact Apple's PR VP, Katie Cotton, who said the rumors were untrue. After the scare, prices rebounded, but never reached their highs for the day just before the rumor bubbled to the surface. Volume was at its heaviest before 10 a.m. Eastern, with about 16 million shares changing hands. In sum total, 82 million shares were traded over the course of the day. Apple shares were slightly ahead in early after-hours trading.
AAPL shares close up 8 percent
If you bought Apple at its lowest low yesterday, for just over a hundred bucks a share, you'd have made $13 per share back today. That doesn't cover your loss, of course, if you bought at its 52-week highs of just over $200 per share, but if you were a smart shopper yesterday, you got a heck of a deal. Goldman Sachs analyst David Bailey said that the yesterday's price drop was "overdone" and reiterated his "buy" rating and $200 price target. Citi analyst Richard Gardner also recommended buying, but cut his price target to $170 per share. "The recent sell off creates an opportunity as we think Apple will outperform our group through the end of the year, driven by iPhone unit upside and a strong product pipeline," said Bailey. AAPL closed today at 113.71, up 8.45 points, or eight percent from its close yesterday. [Via BusinessWeek.]
AAPL down sharply after two ratings cuts
Bad day for Big Rainbow: RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky and Morgan Stanley's Kathryn Huberty cut their ratings and price targets on Apple stock, both citing weakness in consumer spending on PCs. AAPL was down 17.38 at 110.86 (-13.58%) as of this writing: a 20-minute-delayed chart is above. Abramsky's price target on AAPL shares is now $140 (down from $200), while Huberty's is lower at $115 (down from $178). Huberty also notes Apple will struggle because the company "does not play" in the sub-$1,000 laptop market. In a slim bit of good news, Abramsky raised his estimate of the number of iPhone units sold during the fourth quarter to six million, up from five. AAPL's price during the trading day has been its lowest in over a year.
Analysts: Macs will continue to take market share from PCs
Are you sitting down for this one? Good. Here goes: Apple is going to keep taking market share from "traditional PCs." I know, it's a real shocker. But so says Zacks Investment Research (which is not, apparently, run by a dude named Zack as you'd think). They say that consumers are enjoying Apple's innovations, and that a strong product line lead by the iPod, iPhone, and the MacBook Air will continue to increase Apple's business and give them a bigger piece of the personal computing pie. Who knew?But Zacks isn't jumping into anything -- they still say that the iPod line will slow down over the next few years, so they're going "hold" with AAPL. Still, it's a good thing they told us about that marketshare thing. Without analysts like these, we'd have no idea what we're buying lately.[via MacBytes]
