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Analyst predicts "dramatic" drop in Blu-ray sales during Q4
You know how this game works by now -- someone says one thing, someone else says another. After hearing the Blu-ray Disc Association assert that Blu-ray wares would be flying off of store shelves this holiday season, in steps technology analyst Roger Kay to say otherwise. In fact, he predicts a "dramatic" drop in Blu-ray sales for Q4 and beyond, suggesting that consumers will choose to hold tight to their hard-earned dollars rather than spend it on a format that's still noticeably more expensive than DVD. As if that weren't enough, he also insinuated that the push back in adoption could allow "other forms of video over cable, satellite and the internet to shut the window of opportunity for Blu-ray." Of course, we've heard this whole physical media versus digital downloads debate before, but we don't exactly see a poor sales season (if there is one) as being enough to catapult digital downloads in front of BD. Regardless, we'll be anxious to see the numbers in early 2009, but for now, it certainly provides interesting fodder for discussion.[Image courtesy of Syracuse]
BlackBerry Curve tops curious list of most popular handsets in US
There's a pretty substantial difference between "sales" and "popularity," as evidenced by the glaring dissimilarities between this here top 10 list and the one churned out earlier this month by NPD. AvianResearch got its data by polling 100 service representatives at retail stores to "gauge consumer interest in handsets available at the four major carriers in the United States." In September, RIM's BlackBerry Curve maintained the "lead," with Apple's iPhone securing a very distant second place. LG's Dare and the BlackBerry Pearl followed suit, while the LG Voyager, Samsung Instinct, LG Rumor, LG Shine, Palm Centro and Nokia 5310 closed out the rear. But seriously, since when has popularity trumped cold hard sales? Ah well, here's your cookie, Curve.
Guts of BlackBerry Bold found to cost $170
Not that it really matters to consumers one way or another -- after all, if you want a Bold, you'll pay the asking price -- but recent analysis by research firm iSuppli has found that parts and materials used to make the device "cost $158.16, and that assembly and testing add another $11.25, for a total cost of $169.41." Just for comparison, the Curve costs a cool $103 to build, and assuming RIM can sell the Bold to carriers at around $350, it'll net a gross margin of around 45% before R&D costs, software, marketing, shipping and freebies given to obscenely wealthy celebs are taken into account. The report (er, the part about the nice margins) should come as welcome news to shareholders, who have recently been worried that the current economic situation may keep individuals from snatching up new 'Berrys at a breakneck pace. Now, if only RIM / AT&T would let the thing get through testing, we'd be all set to contribute to those margins here in the US. Ahem.
Munster: Apple overestimated Q3 margin impacts
Gene Munster is skeptical that Apple's guidance of lower margins for the rest of the year in its Q3 conference call back in July, and expects the company to continue to outperform expectations. The Piper Jaffray analyst said that lower prices for NAND flash memory will offset any reductions in price for new iPods introduced last month. Munster speculates that even with an introduction of a sub-$1,000 MacBook before the end of the year, Apple's margins will remain healthy. Yes, it will have an impact, but not to the degree that Apple execs hinted in their phone call: Munster thinks margins would only fall to around 30 percent. In fact, Munster says "investors would see the lack of redesigned, lower-priced Macs as a more significant negative than they would a 30 percent GM guide in the December quarter." (Emphasis mine.) He reiterated his "buy" rating. Munster's price target for AAPL is still higher than many others (at least recently), at $250 per share. [Via Ars and AppleInsider.]
Phat Loot Phriday: Crossbow of Relentless Strikes
BM Hunters, here's something you can spend those Badges on.Name: Crossbow of Relentless Strikes (Wowhead, Thottbot, Goblin Workshop)Type: Epic CrossbowDamage/Speed: 182-339 / 2.80 (93.0 DPS)Abilities: It can strike relentlessly, obviously. Improves hit rating by 14 and crit strike rating by 18, and increases attack power by 32. The hit is very nice for a bow and it takes up a good chunk of the +hit you need to meet the hit cap, which means you probably will have a gem or two free elsewhere to add more Agility into the mix. The crit is nice, and more attack power is always a good thing obviously. But the real stat on this bow is its speed -- while the damage ain't the best, the lower speed makes it easier for BM Hunters especially to match up their Steady Shot/Autoshot rotation, which means more DPS overall. This bow is a gift from Blizzard to Beastmaster Hunters, How to Get It: It's relatively easy -- just lug 150 Badges of Justice (those things have to be heavy, right?) to the Badge Vendors in Quel'danas or Shattrath. There's 22 Badges in a full Karazhan clear, and Heroics have about 3-5 each (plus a few more for the daily quest), so run Kara and the daily Heroics all week long, and it should only take you about two or three weeks to pick up all the badges you need. Throw in some ZA if your guild is running that one, and add in the fact that you probably already have a few badges in the bank, and this baby's almost in your hands. It'll last you at least until Sunwell, too, and even if the expansion rolls around before you can make it in there, you should at least be able to get a level or two under your belt before it eventually gets replaced by a green. If you're looking for something to do ingame before the expansion, this bow's not a bad goal to have -- think of all the rep, other gear, and gold you'll pull out of running all these instances, too.Getting Rid of It: Disenchants into a Void Crystal, but just like most Badge gear, vendors won't buy it back from you. As I said, odds are that if you don't replace it with a Sunwell piece, you'll probably replace it at some point in Northrend. But the thrill of gear isn't in having it, it's in chasing it, right?
Motorola clings to number one spot in US sales, RIM still rocking
Uh oh, Moto. Go 'head with your bad self. Just days after posting a meager profit (but a profit nonetheless) and maintaining your position in third in worldwide mobile market share, along comes a report claiming that you're still numero uno in the United States. While handset sales overall shot up 5.3% here in Q2, Motorola maintained a 26% share and managed to stare down at least a few naysayers. In related news, LG held tight to the silver with 22%, while RIM gained a double-digit market share increase thanks to sales of its oh-so-hot BlackBerry handset. Number nerds, feel free to tap the read link for even more fractions and decimals.[Via RCRWireless]
Research affirms that DVR owners do indeed blaze by commercials
You know those situations where everyone knows something yet no one is courageous enough to just blurt out the obvious? Pardon us, but yes, people do actually use their DVRs to skip commercials. In case our word isn't good enough for you, research firm Oliver Wyman has just completed a study which found that 85% of the 1,000 global participants used their DVR to skip at least three-quarters of all commercials. Furthermore, most viewers stated that they would not be willing to "watch advertising even when it underwrites free content," and they wouldn't want to pay extra (in addition to the DVR cost, we presume) to remove ads. Really though, we ad skippers are simply keeping those lucrative media marketing firms on their toes, and trust us, they have / will continue to find ways to circumvent our circumvention. Full release after the jump.
Asia-Pacific Sony VP suggests Blu-ray Discs will outsell DVDs by 2011
Gettin' antsy, are we Sony? Barely a month after the Entertainment Merchants Association pumped out a report suggesting that Blu-ray Disc sales could exceed that of DVDs by 2012, along comes a bullish Sony VP from the Asia-Pacific region to state otherwise. Sony Pictures Home Entertainment's Tim Meade has asserted that the "sales volume of BD movie discs may surpass that of DVDs in 2011," following market reports in the US that indicate that the "global sales ratio of Blu-ray movie discs to DVDs will rise to an estimated 40:60 in 2010." Can't knock a guy for being hopeful, right?
Azeroth Security Advisor: Patient patching prevents pestilence
Every other week, computer security expert Jon Eldridge is your Azeroth Security Advisor. He will delve into the darkest reaches of computer security rumor and bring the facts back home even if they're wriggling at the end of a pike. His goal is to provide useful information to gamers who don't think about security much and flame fodder for those self appointed experts who need to rationalize the cost of their expensive certifications. Like any good security force he's a mercenary at heart and is happy to take subject requests from the user community that he serves. So feel free to leave a comment below or just sit back and enjoy the show. It's Friday night at 6:45 pm server time. Your raid begins in 15 min and you think you're ready to go. Narrowly escaped another speeding ticket trying to get home from work in time? Check. Belly full of pizza? Check. Mind totally polluted on bad tasting energy drink? Ch3cK! Dog fed and walked? Check. TiVo recording the latest over hyped drivel? Check. Kids unconscious. Check. Parents or domestic partner unconscious or otherwise leaving you alone for one damn second? Check. When will they understand that you ARE being social by locking yourself in the computer room all night... jeez! Time to rock and roll! Or not. What's this? A patch? On Friday night? Agony, shame and defeat. Azeroth will not know the terror of your blade this night. Gornak the mighty has been caged by some dweeb code monkey and their total POS patch system. Your raid leader is going to KILL you. Wait, what about downloading the patch from the Internet? Just Google up the patch number and let your cable modem download it at lightning speed right? Don't do it.
Analyst: PS3 to outsell 360 by more than 2:1 by 2012
It is always so much fun to post the thoughts of industry analysts. No matter what the topic, there are guaranteed to be comments regarding A) what an easy job analysts have and B) how nothing analysts say comes true. Honestly, analyst posts are fun for all ages. The latest analytical blatherskite holds that the Playstation 3 will have won the console war by 2012. Specifically, according to CNET, IDC analyst Billy Pidgeon claims that by 2012 the PS3 will have moved a whopping 107 million units. The Xbox 360? By 2012, Pidgeon predicts Microsoft will have sold just over 40 million units. In other words, the PS3 will grow exponentially year over year, whereas the 360 will grow at a much more tepid pace. The reason: market perception. Analyst extraordinaire Michael Pachter gave his two cents, noting that Microsoft has "an image issue." Essentially, the 360, according to Pachter, is perceived as a console for hardcore gamers only, whereas the PS3 (and more specifically Sony) is perceived as family friendly. Aaron Greenberg, 360 product manager, naturally disagrees, noting that the Xbox 360 has more million-selling titles than either the Wii or PS3 and that the 360 has "the largest game lineup, and the most exclusive titles."
Gamers and the faster iMacs
Peter Cohen over at Macworld continues his sideline analysis of Apple's gaming chances with a post about how the brand new faster iMacs are indeed faster, but still not fast enough for gamers. And to a certain extent, he's right -- gaming on the Mac is like that old beat-up, "someday I'll fix it up" convertible your father's had in the garage covered with a tarp since you were a kid. Getting it out and putting a new engine in it might help it run better, but it's still not going to turn it into a car that anyone wants to drive around.But (and we talked about this extensively on the Talkcast a few weeks ago with Brian Akaka from Freeverse) it's a step. A faster video card, even if it isn't blazing, will run games better than before, and it'll do a little to bring not only gaming customers but developers back to the Mac. Cohen is right -- that old convertible needs an actual mechanic to take a look at it, and it needs the seats to be reupholstered, and sooner or later it's going to need a new can of paint (not that, like your Dad's actual convertible, these things aren't ever going to happen -- we continue to hear rumblings that Apple is aiming for gamers).But something is something -- the very fact that Apple is offering faster video cards is a sign that they're interested. And, other than simple profiles of games on their website and cameos by game execs at keynotes, that's more than we've had in a while.
Has Growl been changed or not?
Ever since it was reported that in 2.4.2, threat generated by Growl would no longer scale with pet attack power, Hunters have been trying to figure out what that means. Will it only scale with Hunter attack power? Is there any way to get Growl's threat up? Just what is the relationship between the threat generated by Growl and the stats listed on both Hunter and pet? The Mystic Hunter has been working to try and figure things out, but the stats he's found have actually been more confusing than clarifying -- he did a series of tests on the Live server and then on the Test server... and found them to be the same.Say wha? Mystic found that threat is clearly scaling with Pet AP, and not with Ranged AP (he shot RAP way high using the Core of Ar'kelos and a few other gear pieces, and had no noticeable affect on threat generated by Growl).So not so fast on that Growl change -- if it is going to be implemented in 2.4.2, it hasn't been put out there yet (which, considering that the 2.4.2 testing is supposed to be almost over, makes us think it won't happen this patch at all). Of course, if the fix doesn't come out, then the original problem is still there. These Growl issues are turning out to be a huge headache for both Hunters and Blizzard.
Can WoW be beaten?
World of Warcraft is doing terrific lately, but if you believe the hype, there's trouble on the horizon, and it's coming in the form of two big MMOs: Age of Conan and Warhammer Online. Greg Howson of Britain's Guardian newspaper has a column online in which he examines WoW's grip on MMO gamers and the two big games it'll face this year.We'll leave the cross-MMO predictions to our great sister site Massively, but for their part, Blizzard says they're looking forward to a little competition in the MMO pool. Howson has J. Allen Brack, WoW's lead producer, saying that they're looking forward to playing the new games as well. And it's true -- real competition in this space might actually be a welcome thing to fans of all MMO games. Blizzard is working hard now, but they might actually be working harder if they had a competitor breathing down their necks.Unfortunately for those who want to see that happen, it's going to be super hard for anyone to get near Blizzard's neck, much less near their game. As Lord of the Rings Online producer Ed Relf says to Howson, WoW is pretty much the iPod of the MMO space. It could just be that what Blizzard has done here -- bring an MMO to the forefront of gaming culture for an extended period of time -- is a deed that just can't be replicated, no matter how much money you put into making a game.[Via Worldofwar.net]
Mania on the Growl change
Mania is quickly becoming the voice of choice for analysis on Hunter changes, and her latest take on the Growl changes recently released in the patch 2.4.2 notes is no exception. From what Mania can see, Growl's threat isn't scaling with Hunter Attack Power at all, but Blizzard claims it is, so she's chalking her findings in that direction up to faulty data. What she does determine, from both her research and Blizzard's posts on the subject, is that the change here has nothing to do with Hunter's RAP or AP values -- it only has to do with the pet's AP values. Before, if pet AP got a bonus, so did Growl's threat. After 2.4.2, any bonus to pet AP won't affect Growl's threat.So Hunters who routinely get their pet buffed are probably going to feel this change a little bit (though in most situations where pets get group buffs, I'd imagine Growl would be turned off anyway, in order for the tank to control threat). And Hunters who use boars, of course -- as Daniel explained, that extra AP from Charge doesn't work for Growl any more. Mania doesn't stop there, however -- since we know now that the only thing affecting Growl is the Hunter's Attack Power, she's determined to figure out just how much AP can scale Growl up (she's guessing it starts at 1955, we'll see what she comes up with).Of course, some players have found that this works pretty well -- especially MM Hunters, who generally have more attack power (thanks to talents which increase it), have no problems with drawing aggro away from their growling pets. Blizzard's reasoning on this may have been solid -- to make the abilities of the pet rely on Hunter stats, not any temporary pet buffs. Hunters with Boars won't get that nice burst any more, but Hunters with a high RAP will do just fine.
Joystiq goes wheels-on with Mario Kart Wii
Click to read their control scheme analysis var digg_url = 'http://digg.com/nintendo/The_definitive_Mario_Kart_Wii_controller_showdown'; After unboxing the game last night, Joystiq has been running on no sleep to bring you massive amounts of coverage on the game. Just about the only thing they're missing is, well ... uh, we can't think of anything! Seriously, they're covering all bases here. We'd like to bring your attention to their analysis of the several control schemes available in the game.If you're looking for more, they've set up a nice little page that is home to all of their coverage of the new game. They've got a retrospective, a hands-on write-up of their initial impressions on the game, and more! What are you waiting for? Get over there already!
Next up for gaming: the MacBook
Peter Cohen's got a good commentary up at Macworld about Apple's should-be next target for gaming, the Macbook. Finally, as of the iPhone SDK announcement, we've seen some serious movement on the gaming front from Apple -- they brought EA in and commissioned their own programmers to punch out some game software to show off the iPhone SDK implementation (and as I've said before, including on the talkcast a few weeks ago, we're only seeing the beginning of what's possible with gaming on the iPhone). So maybe they're finally seeing the light on gaming.But as is, the Macbook isn't winning any awards as a gaming machine. As Cohen says, yes, the integrated graphics card puts the consumer Mac laptop hopelessly behind the times, but the problem isn't just upgrading the hardware -- the software itself needs to be optimized and redesigned. Apple has always been at the forefront of development, and Leopard especially, with Core Image functionality, looks great in the OS and in applications.But when even mainstream sports titles, the kind that are on all platforms from day one, can't even play on your hardware, it's time to go back to square one. As Cohen says, we're not asking for much -- but games are a core part of the personal computing experience, and Apple shouldn't sideline that demographic any more than the others they serve.
Study: Two out of three in U.S. play casual games
Anyone who keeps up with gaming news knows that casual games are the biggest thing since sorted gems. But man, if a new report is to be believed, casual gaming is more popular than even we thought.The report, from research firm Interpret, estimates that 145 million U.S. residents aged 12 to 65 played casual games in 2007. That's almost two-thirds of the roughly 222 million people in that age range. And just because they're casual games doesn't mean they're played casually -- the report estimates players spent an average of 5.1 hours per week on casual games in the fourth quarter of '07. That's nearly 740 million man hours spent playing casual games per week, outpacing activities like magazine and newspaper reading.Even though most of these gamers only play games on free sites like EA's Pogo, Interpret still estimates industry revenues of $400 to $700 million by 2010. That's a drop in the bucket compared to estimates of $40 billion in total industry revenues by that point, but if we were a small developer, we sure we wouldn't mind having a piece of it.[Picture credit]
Taking one more look at the patch 2.4 guesses
Adam did post this graph (made by Saiforune a.k.a. reader Ian over the weekend after I threw up a request on Friday) already, but considering how much info is in here, and how much work Ian put into it, I figured it deserved another look now that the contest is officially closed. So what we've got here is a standard bar graph, marking out how many people guessed which day that patch 2.4 would go to the live realms. The range of choices is pretty amazing -- the earliest people expected the patch to go up was today, March 3rd (sorry guys, I'm guessing you didn't win), and at least two people think we'll see the patch in the second half of the year (I doubt the patch will drop after October, but I guess we'll see).As you might have guessed, Tuesdays got the most guesses (since that's usually when Blizzard updates the realms), and Tuesday, March 18th got the most guesses overall. Adam's predicted date of March 25th got the next most guesses, and strangely enough more people thought Blizzard would wait until the 8th of April rather than releasing it on April Fool's Day. Also, there are a lot of days missing between 4/1 and 4/8, so while we don't know exactly which date those 11 people in between guessed, odds are there are some days missing in that stretch that didn't get guessed, so if Blizzard decides to release the patch on a non-Tuesday (remember that the PTR went up on Friday night), we might have an interesting outcome.My official guess was before Noblegarden (which starts on 3/23), so looks like I line right up with what most readers thought: we're all expecting the patch on 3/18. Now it's just time to wait and see when Blizzard decides the patch is ready. Thanks again to Ian for putting this together -- fascinating stuff.
New Huxley gameplay video with analysis
Good things come to those who wait. In our earlier coverage of Webzen's upcoming MMO Huxley, we lamented the state of the in-game videos we saw -- a lot of running, nice scenery, but little else. Huxley-evolved.com has finally given us what we wanted with two videos available on blip.tv. At the time of this post, huxley-evolved.com's site was unavailable, so we're linking to the separate videos.What does the first video tell us? Well, it's an FPS, which is a relative rarity in the MMO scene, and just behind that in little-seen-in-MMOs, it's Science Fiction. The traditionals are all here -- jumping, strafing, etc. Neither this, nor the following video feature any melée weaponry. We do notice that there's no HUD in this video, however, which some will like and some won't, but the second video does have one, so apparently it's toggleable. It also seems to take an extraordinarily long time to die, with hit after hit being scored before the opponent finally lays down. On death, a voice speaking Korean recites what we'll guess is a countdown. If our Korean-speaking audience members would care to drop a comment enlightening us, we'd appreciate it.
Numbers tabulated, Wii predicted to overtake Xbox 360 in 2008
So analysts at research firm iSuppli are projecting that the Wii will overtake the 360 as the dominant current-gen console this year, as projected sales would put Nintendo at over 30m units, compared to Microsoft's expected 26m. The PS3 is also mentioned as having the greatest growth potential if it hits projections of 25.7m total units sold this year, but that seems a little optimistic if you ask us. Sony fans might have the last laugh though, as ultimately iSuppli sees the PS3 as the market leader as we enter the next decade. Hey, who knows, Sony might just catch up and recapture that crown -- anything's possible.
