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Survey sez just 11-percent of Americans rely solely on cellphones
While we're inclined to believe that most of those surveyed are just too lazy to disconnect their landline which hasn't been used in the past 24 months except for picking up a few stray telemarketing plugs, a recent Harris poll reportedly shows that a whopping 81-percent of US adults still have a landline phone in their home. Notably, 77-percent of the test population also had a cellphone while 16-percent had warmed up to VoIP, but a paltry 11-percent of the participants admitted to relying solely on cellphones to get their yap on. Of course, the generational trend was in full effect, as the majority (55-percent) of that small chunk was of the younger set between the ages of 18 and 29. So, dear readers, how many of you are still keeping your landline provider in business for a medium you could easily do without?
Thoughts on the Leopard delay announcement and TUAW comments
Apple may have just dealt us the bad news about Leopard, but already reactions are pouring in from across the web and even on our own comment thread. This announcement is huge, and it'll take a while to unpack it all, but I've had some early thoughts and reactions on what this all means, and I wanted to respond to some comments left at our original post of the news. There is quite a bit to deal with, but here are some ideas in no particular order:1) I agree with sentiments that some sort of OS upgrade time frame would be a great idea, especially since October is way too late for the EDU sales rush. Microsoft did it, and Apple makes their money from hardware sales, not boxes of Mac OS X. It would speak volumes and make - or break - a lot of customer loyalty. No word on whether Apple might actually do this - AFAIK, they never have before. Then again, they've never been this popular, and I don't think such a highly anticipated product has been delayed in light of another even more anticipated product before, either.2) I also agree that I would rather have it this way than a craptastic release in June that's full of more holes than swiss cheese. Tiger is a damn fine piece of software and I'm happy to keep using it for a few more months.3) We have to face that fact that the iPhone is likely going to sell more units than Mac OS X. In all likelihood, many more units. Mobile handsets sell in the billions each year; last year I think Apple sold around 6-10 million Macs. They sold double that in iPods over the 2006 winter holiday season alone. The iPhone is likely to be big - even bigger than we feel Mac OS X is.4) With #3 out of the way: don't worry about the future of Macs or Mac OS X. Product launches like the iPhone are a tremendous effort for any company, but they typically herald in a period where many of that products resources can go back to their regularly scheduled focus. This certainly isn't always the case, but what I'm trying to say is that, in all likelihood, most of the engineers Apple said they had to commandeer from the Leopard wing at Cupertino for the iPhone will go back to Mac OS X development and, for the most part, stay there. The Mac isn't going anywhere.5) In a few days, maybe a week or two, John C. Dvorak is probably going to pen part 2 of his 'Apple to trash Mac OS X for Windows' article, a concept which he loves to push our buttons with. I recommend you don't bother reading it, and highly recommend that you don't submit it to us as a tip. We're not linking to good ol' Johnny until he shows us some TUAW love for once first.
Beauty-rating software could spell trouble for Hot or Not
Facial recognition software has been used in a smorgasbord of positive applications, aiding our soldiers in detecting baddies, keeping weirdos out of clubs, barring maniacs from entering football arenas, and even helping parents know when their infant is truly in a bad way, but the latest usage of the technology could indeed hurt the feelings of the less-than-attractive. A pair of controversy-lovin' Australian scientists have devised a software program that actually rates one's face "from one to ten" in terms of most ugly to most beautiful, and uses a sophisticated database of facial proportions borrowed from some 200 stunning women across the globe in order to give you a very honest answer when questioning your attractivity. Of course, we all know that real beauty lies within (right?), and if your idea of sexy doesn't match up with the generally accepted supermodel "look," the results could indeed conflict with your own beliefs. Currently, the program is designed to work solely with women, but adopting a male iteration could definitely be in the cards, and while we doubt this stuff would be particularly beneficial for your image-obsessed teen, it's primarily intended for use in the cosmetic surgery realm to judge just how effective that ridiculously expensive nose job really was.[Via Digg]
Apple TV takes over DVD world, or 30%, at least
I don't give predictions of market analysts too much serious thought, mostly because the statistics don't really mean much other than to hype up a particular product. Or maybe these analysts just like to be able to say 'told ya so' if their predictions become true. Anyway, one Deutsche Bank analyst claims that the Apple TV can potentially capture 20-30% of the CD and DVD market within a few years after its launch this month. Not to be a naysayer or anything, but that is a huge percentage that seems way too optimistic to be taken seriously. There are a ton of factors at play here. (Oh, and let's not forget that only Disney, Paramount, and Lions Gate are on board to sell films through iTunes... and as far as I know, there are a couple more movie studios out there than just these three). What do you think? Will the Apple TV cause that big of a shakeup in the home entertainment market once it lands? Will it appeal only to fervent Apple fans? What about those people that can barely operate the remote control of their DVD player, never mind tackling the prospect of downloading and transferring digital videos? Any thoughts?
SET CounterBomber spies hazardous humans from a distance
Here's one that's just begging for a profiling fit to be thrown over it. While the CounterBomber won't deem you guilty for creeping through a deserted street or texting your boy while waiting at a stop light, it just might inform everyone in an airport that you're the next suicide bomber waiting to blow. SET Corporation is unveiling a machine that best sport an accuracy level untouchable by mere human instincts, as it plans to sit at major public venues and sporting events to spot potential bomb-toting humans "from up to 50 yards away." The first iteration of the machine will utilize "radar-imaging technology" to somehow "analyze and reveal" concealed objects without actually peeking through folks' clothing, but future versions are slated to incorporate a "gait analysis" bit that could further substantiate if some awkward weight balance is going on underneath the hoodie. Still, we can just imagine the uproar from an innocent young lad with a stiff knee getting carted off due to this gizmo (incorrectly) deeming him suspicious, but considering the CounterBomber could be making its debut within 6 months or so, we'll be sure to find out just how inaccurate it is real soon.[Via CNET]
Why a Mac tablet from Apple doesn't make sense
Laurie posted OWC's announcement of their upcoming ModBook Mac tablet just as I began rounding up commentary from some Mac notables as to why a tablet from Apple simply doesn't make sense. OWC's announcement indeed makes things a bit more interesting, but I think some of these thoughts from Steven Frank (of Panic, Inc. fame) and David Sobotta, one of Apple's own former sales managers, can shed some light on why Apple is likely to stay away from this market. Mr. Sobotta tells a longer story over at The Guardian of his 20 years of experience at Apple, and Steven Frank more or less rounds up the bullet points in a Macworld rumor call-out post. To sum things up: the idea of a tablet Mac is cool - really cool - but the fact of the matter is that the tablet PC market sucks. And by 'sucks' I mean "it's downright horrendously dismal." Steven also reminds us that Apple hasn't really been making products for unidentified markets for about a decade now. Sure, there are a big handful of Mac Photoshoppers that would love to be able to craft their next Fark submission with a Mac tablet on the couch, but the unfortunate reality is that Apple - already a niche company - would need a *lot* more interest in an über-niche product like this to make it profitable. To make matters worse, already established industries (like the medical field) *still* aren't touching the tablet PC products that have been on the market for over two years now. Steven lists a lot of other good obstacles that simply don't seem ripe for Apple to tackle anytime soon, and Mr. Sobotta certainly offers some commentary from behind Apple's well-guarded veil as well. Which brings me back to the intriguing ModBook announcement from OWC. Apple hasn't made the idea of a tablet Mac work just yet (though who knows: maybe next week could prove everyone wrong), but OWC apparently has. Next week should be a very interesting one, to say the least.
"The Month of Apple bugs" begins, rationality surrenders
Kevin Finisterre and someone we only know as "LMH" have launched the Month of Apple Bugs, a site they dub a 'project' with the supposed goal of publishing bugs, hacks and exploits they have found in Apple's software any and all Apple-related software. Already they have published a QuickTime exploit they've found which could allow remote code execution (for which Mr. Gruber's proposed solution might not cut it), and yesterday they posted a VLC exploit (and how is this an 'Apple bug?') which supposedly offers the same vulnerability.If you're the type who enjoys cliff notes, let me summarize my feelings about the decision Kevin and "LMH" have made with this site: I spent almost all of last night sketching and brainstorming ideas, but I honestly can't think of anything more pathetically ego-massaging or FUD-drudging one could do with this information outside of writing, directing and starring in a horror movie about code exploits. Thankfully, I wager such a movie wouldn't do so well at the box office.Let me be clear: if these guys have actually found enough problems with software (be it Apple's or otherwise) to fill a whole month of releases, I honestly and sincerely thank them - they can help whoever makes that software to make it better. What is so horrendously wrong with this 'project' is that they're stirring up hype and making news headlines with these exploits, instead of sticking with the traditional and ethical practices of reporting and discussing these bugs with the relevant parties.Who knows, maybe they already filled out the form (though after reading FAQ #4, I doubt it), but publishing this information and landing themselves all over digg and Yahoo! News isn't going to accomplish anything productive. They complain about slow processes and being annoyed at auto-responders to bug reports but they fail to offer any legitimate reason or positive justification for publishing code like this. Patience and civility are virtues, and while I can completely understand being annoyed at faceless bureaucratic processes that fail to tingle the 'hooray I did something good!' bone, publishing this code in this manner has absolutely no positive merit for anyone, and causes nothing but undue harm to the Mac community they so smugly feign an interest in.But I would hate to end on such a bad note. Instead, I'll promise to stomp my feet about this 'project' as little as possible, as we at TUAW would rather focus on the positive. Over the month, we'll offer context and solutions for the bugs Mr. Finisterre and "LMH" publish, in an effort to help the Mac web create something positive out of this questionable month-long bug report. Stay tuned.
Ryan Block on why an Apple phone is so anticipated
For the sake of not trampling trademarks, I guess we can no longer refer to the feverishly-anticipated Apple phone as an 'iPhone.' Nevertheless, no matter what you want to call it, Ryan Block has written an interesting analysis of why everyone wants an Applephone so badly. I think it's a great look at the dynamics of the industry and what a phone from Apple could mean for it, in part because Ryan includes a down-to-earth list of realities about the device. The list includes things such as questionable battery life and how Apple's minimalist design philosophies might not yield a perfect phone that will be adored by all - that is, if the phone even exists in the first place. If you aren't quite tired of hearing about the Applephone just yet and you've been hoping for some more sensible insight into the possibilities of this much-rumored device, check out Ryan's post for a refreshing dose of speculative realism.
Cult of Mac: "Ten Questions Apple Must Answer in 2007"
Leander Kahney and Pete Mortensen at Wired's Cult of Mac have penned Ten Questions Apple Must Answer in 2007, an article which thankfully delves beyond the typical 'where's my iPhone?' to examine interesting aspects of Apple's future. Leander and Pete briefly discuss that second campus Apple recently bought, what they see as the company's relatively stagnating industrial design, where the iPod can go next and - of course - whether Apple can stay successful once Jobs inevitably steps down. The article is a nice, short summary of many of the key points Apple very well has to wrangle with during the next year, and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
On declining iTunes Store sales
The Register rang the town bell this week, pouncing on a report from Forrester Research which declared that iTunes Store sales are on the decline. Forrester analyzed 27 months of credit card transactions to conclude that revenue has fallen 65 percent since January 2006, and the size of the average transaction has dropped 17 percent. These numbers, however, don't take into account transactions like gift cards and gifted music, and I have a sneaking suspicion they might also have omitted other popular services like PayPal, which can be tied directly to a customer's banking account, bypassing credit cards altogether.Apple is notoriously tight-lipped about the performance of their 800 lb gorilla iTS, but MacNN notes that Apple reported 'above-break-even' profits for the store during last September's earnings conference call. Considering the iTS has long been known as a paper-thin profit loss-leader to sell iPods, as well as the possibility that the neglected portions of iTS transactions could shift Forrester's findings, I'm a bit skeptical of these reports. Of course, The Macalope asks 'who cares?' to all this worry of how the iTS is doing, but Geoff Duncan at Digital Trends reminds us of some interesting potential shifts in the digital distribution model that could depend directly on how well present offerings fair. Microsoft opened a Pandora's box by agreeing to pay the labels $1 for each Zune sold, and there are rumors that the jackass labels might be using this to pressure Apple into a similar deal. On an even broader scale though, Geoff also mentions something called 'blanket licensing' where said jackass labels could apply a tax to broadband subscriptions, allowing users to continue to freely download content over any network or service they use.We will undoubtedly receive an updated performance report on the iTunes Store from Stevie at next month's Macworld. If anything, Forrester's report and the resulting discussion might signify a new wave of interestingness in the sea of DRM and digital distribution. Stay tuned.
Another analyst: Microsoft execs feeling good about Xbox
Now, some psychoanalysis on Microsoft executives would be quite entertaining ("Tell me about these lucid dreams, Peter."), especially when compared to the recent observations made by Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets. In his earth-shattering report, Mr. Sebastian describes the folks behind the Xbox brand as "upbeat" given the commercial success of Gears of War, the company's considerable launch lead against competitors and consistent growth in Europe. Japan, not so much.The Xbox 360's 2007 lineup (featuring Space Ring 3) and catalogue of HD shows and movies are also expected to have a positive effect on this year's holiday sales. Sebastian believes that fleeting Wii and PS3 stock will prove to be Microsoft's greatest advantage, with desperate parents picking up a 360 and convincing their rotten brats that it was the only console they could find. It's a likely scenario, but if recent sales in Japan have proven anything, it's that the PS2 and DS Lite are far more likely (and cheaper) replacements -- if indeed a replacement is sought at all. How about a nice fruitcake instead?
Translation of Japanese 'Get a Mac' ads
Oliver Reichenstein and Moritz Zimmer at Information Architects Japan have posted a translation of the Japanese Get a Mac ads we posted earlier this month, complete with essential cultural contexts. Included is a breakdown of the meanings behind the actors (and their interesting similarity), what they're wearing and what their body language means. IA finishes off the post with some criticism of the ads, complete with suggestions on what could have been done differently. If you're unfamiliar with Japan and its rich culture, this is an interesting analysis from a two-man design firm that lives right in the middle of it.[via Daring Fireball]
What I'm thankful for this Thanksgiving season
Since many of us at TUAW are celebrating Thanksgiving in America, I though this might be a good time to join many others in posting a few things I'm thankful for in the Mac web. Naturally, I'm thankful for the wonderful family I'm getting to spend time with, as well as an incredible wife and having a roof over my head. But in the context of TUAW, I figured I would spotlight some of the more Apple-related things for which I'm thankful. You know, the people, apps and other goodness that make my Mac experience that much more appreciable: The blogging team here at TUAW - No I'm not just sucking up; we have a great crew of people here that has recently expanded with the return of Laurie A. Duncan, and our newest blogger Erica Sadun. We're rocking some great content that makes me even more proud to be a TUAW blogger. MagSafe power adapters - kinda silly I know, but living in a house with a wife as busy as I am and a hyper-active Blue Heeler dog, this innovation has already saved my MacBook on a good number of occasions. I thank Apple's engineers for this surprise innovation on the new Intel portables. Daring Fireball - Yes, we pimp John Gruber's stellar musings on all things Apple, software and design quite a bit here on TUAW, but that's only because we all think he does some pretty nifty work, and his writing is a personal inspiration to me. I can't wait for Spring when I'm done with this internship and down to my final semester, with not much more than a senior thesis on my hands, which means more time to dedicate towards creating better posts and podcasts. Xtorrent - Aside from the mixed sentiments towards Mr. Watanabe in my last post about this rockin' BitTorrent client, I'm really digging it, and this is the first holiday trip away from home that I elected to leave the iMac running (on a battery backup, finally) with a long list of goodies to torrent for when I return. Keyword Manager for iPhoto - Sure, I found it just recently, but this app has quickly become a must-have for my iPhoto library. After recently acquiring a killer Canon Digital Rebel XT SLR camera, I'm getting my photography eye back and this app is proving vital for bringing some organization to my now-rapidly expanding library of 3700+ images. Backlit keyboards - I gave up my 1st gen MacBook Pro over the summer for a MacBook + iMac setup so I can leave the desktop machine running to render out big video and motion graphics projects. However, since my wife wants a notebook of her own soon, she promised to chip in to purchase a MacBook Pro for me in June of '07 as a graduation present, at which point she'll inherit the MacBook, and I will be reunited with one of the guiltiest of notebook luxuries that I miss so dearly: a backlit keyboard. Nevermind the recent bump to Core 2 Duo or the (finally!) re-introduction of FW800 and a DL DVD burner - I can't wait to fire up that sexy backlit keyboard. The Intel patch for Unreal Tournament 2004 - I spend way too much time online in this game, and I'm so thankful an Intel patch was released; so much so that it would have been at least a momentary deal-breaker if I couldn't find one when I was considering my original upgrade to Intel machines. I could obviously go on for pages, but I gotta wrap this up sooner or later. These are just a few of the unique things I'm thankful for (besides the obvious: "Macs") during this time of thanking. What Apple-related stuff are you thankful for right now? Whether or not you're celebrating, sound off in the comments.
This week's "Why next-gen DVDs are already dead" article
Let's start off the week with an article on Slate about why both Blu-ray and HD DVD are already dead: Downloads, hard drives, and the cost of equipment make up a few reasons why some are saying next-gen DVD is already done before it's even gone mainstream. We're not so sure though, and here are some counterpoints to the article: The Internet: Alright, so you can already download movies and HD content online. But it takes forever (think 30 to 50 gigs, or more layers aplenty), and is usually bundled with more annoying DRM than AACS provides. Want to move it between devices? Sorry. Want to play it eight, or ten, or 100 days after you bought it? Perhaps not. On Demand: The studios would love it if everything you consumed was on-demand. Then you'd never own anything, and they could control when and where you watch it. Oh, but what about in your car on a road trip, or on the train in your video player? And there are plenty of consumers -- count us in on that! -- who like owning physical media, being able to look at album art and boxes and liner notes. Even if distribution is figured out, there's something about having a physical copy of your content that's reassuring. Equipment: We can see the argument against buying yet another piece of hardware that may or may not work out of the box, or have firmware issues, or upscale your standard-def media well, but with existing DVD players at less than $50, and next-gen players sure to hit that mark eventually, it's not exactly preventing anyone from buying in the long run. Media should similarly drop as time goes by, with Blu-ray and HD DVD discs selling for minor margins above standard DVDs. Finally, people are paying thousands for PS3s and Wiis these days, why not pay $199 for an HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360? Hard Drives: Sure, hard drives are cheap and hold a lot of data, but with dual-layer discs holding 30 to 50 gigs, and up to 100 or more planned, they aren't exactly slacking. Also, discs are more portable, and more resistant to drops and shocks. So, what does everyone else think? Is the next-gen media done before its time? Or is it ahead of its time? Will media stick around for a while longer, or are you ready for the on-demand, downloadable-only future?[ Via Slashdot ]
My top X unlikely requests for Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard
Major new features in the upcoming Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard like Time Machine are great, but I've been thinking about all the other aspects of the Mac OS X experience that could use some spit and polish from Apple's engineers. They've done a fantastic job building a damn impressive OS over the years, but that doesn't mean there isn't room for improvements both big and small (besides: they have to keep their OS product cycle on a good pace). Following is a list of 10 unlikely requests I have for the next version of Mac OS X that might not be worthy of a Stevenote, but they could bring smiles and sighs of satisfied relief to many a user: Removing applications - and all their baggage: Deleting (or "uninstalling") an app on Mac OS X is easy: you just move it to the trash. But what about all the extra data apps create when you use them (databases, media libraries, etc.)? Sure there are 3rd party apps like AppZapper that truly remove the app and all those extras, but I think Leopard needs an integrated, obvious and thorough process for removing apps and their extra baggage (perhaps AppZapper could go the way of CoverFlow?). I can't count the number of times I've been asked how to do it by users both old and new. This method could include a dialog when dragging an app to the trash which asks the user if they want to nuke the 'extra' files like Application Support directories and preferences. I know many apps don't leave much behind, but it all can pile up, and there are at least a few apps that really know how to gobble up the mega and gigabytes. To help everyone get on the same page though, a dedicated System Preferences pane would work best. Don't make me eject an idle drive: This one is always a tricky conversation, and I should disclose up front that I am certainly no developer. All I know is that it seems just a little strange in the year 2006 (or 2007, once Leopard is released) that I still have to eject a flash drive I haven't touched in two hours. Mac OS X is now both smart and pretty - I don't think it should be that hard to implement some kind of smart ejection system that can eject the drive when not in use, but fire it back up when needed. Further, if we set my lazy nerd ambitions aside for a moment, I'm sure this would save the lives of countless finance reports and term papers for all those users who don't understand what 'ejecting' a drive means or why they have to do it.
On Apple, blogging and policies
For some time now, Apple's hush-hush policy on public communication has been the focus of much debate. The discussion escalated, however, with the debut of the Masked Blogger, an Apple employee blogging under the radar (or directly in the middle of it, depending on your perspective). Today, John Gruber linked a couple of interesting posts on the subject, one from Chuq Von Rospach (a recent ex-Apple employee), and another from Dave Winer. The more interesting of the two is Chuq's post, where he discusses at length Apple's policies on communication, the fact that the company and its employees actually *do* communicate and blog (though without affiliation), and why Apple's lack of a blogging-specific policy doesn't matter in the grander scheme of things. Chuq's essential point is that Apple's employees do a lot to communicate and interact with the public - they just do it over traditional systems (like email lists) for the purposes of helping and solving problems. Further, 'blogging' is just one more way of communicating (albeit a new and hyped one); it isn't an end-all solution for these purposes. While I think Chuq makes some great points about the focus of blogging and the importance of considering it as a tool for a company like Apple, I still think the company could use one, especially in light of one of its many facets as being closely involved with creative media (see: iLife, which they even brag about on TV). While blogging doesn't have to become a public focus for the company, it certainly wouldn't be difficult to fire one up, and having a blog or two for anything from pimping new products (see: the Google Blog) to offering an easily accessible forum for discussion couldn't hurt (after all, not everyone likes checking in on forums or having one more email list to organize), and they could capitalize on a popular and buzzing new medium. The blog(s) could be treated with a formal touch (like many company-focused promotional blogs) or have a more personal touch from a company-sanctioned individual, like the Scobelizer. Of course, being powered by iWeb, or having a corporate Photocast (or podcast!) couldn't hurt either. Ultimately though, I think one of the good points Chuq makes about how well (yet quietly) Apple's employees actually are communicating is the true Achilles' heel of the idea of an Apple blog to begin with: most of the communication efforts of Apple's employees are quiet or under the radar - right where the company wants them to be. Apple, like most of its products, has a very shiny, polished exterior, which is exactly the kind that does not lend itself to opening the holes and flaws that blogging would puncture, no matter how personal or cute they may seem. One only needs to glance at the company's quiet handling of problems like battery recalls and MacBook RSS to see what I mean. Apple may be a purveyor of some of our favorite creative and communication tools, but donning a more personal side by *using* them just doesn't seem to be in the cards.
Analysts put 360 on top by 2010
It seems like some market research firm has a new prediction for the game industry every day. One day, the PS3 is on top. The next, it's Wii, Wii, Wii (all the way home). Today's chart is all about the 360. IDG estimates that the Xbox 360 will sell 23.9 million units in North America by 2010, followed by the PS3 at 23.5 million, with the Wii in a distant third at 13.6 million units sold. Okay, so for the 360's sake, it's really more of a tie. Granted, these numbers are only for North America, so we have no idea where this puts 360 in a global perspective. Still, most predictions we've seen put the PS3 on top. That makes this chart special. Take off your Fanboy hat for a minute and answer this question: could the 360 really outsell the entrenched juggernaut that is the Playstation?[Via Joystiq]
Apple should offer option of .Mac as separate services
Apple's .Mac service has been quite the coffee talk discussion topic throughout the Mac web since as long as I can remember. We've even covered the service's slow death, some ways it could really hit a home run and even some things .Mac gets right, just to be fair. However, as I was paying for a renewal at the Apple Store yesterday, I realized .Mac could benefit significantly if Apple were to offer the option of purchasing its three major components a la carte. Let's face it, there are a lot of users out there who would love certain components of .Mac, but don't want to pay the premium Apple is charging for the full package. Following is a summarized breakdown of where I believe Apple could separate or bundle their .Mac services to to make them much more appealing to a far wider audience.
High-def DVDs critical for future growth, says analyst group
If you've been reading our fine site for any length of time now, you might want to sit down while you're reading this because Kagan Research has released the Eleventh Edition of their State of Home Video report, and it says that high-definition DVDs are the future. Pretty shocking stuff for our regular readers and listeners of the podcast. Now, we all knew that despite the many heated battles we've had between the two formats, that this wasn't going to happen overnight, and the Kagan analysts have some numbers to go with their predictions. For the time being, high-def will be a speck in the distance for home video sales, with less and a half of a percent (a mere 100 million or so) of the $16.9 billion to be had in one year. By 2009, they predict VHS will be all but gone -- as if it weren't now?? -- and HD will be $2.6 billion, up to around 15% of the total. That's still not exactly a huge amount, and it will take up to 2015 for it to be the majority at $18.3 billion.Of course, for video in general, the boom times are already on the way out, as consumers simply can't buy any more videos than they already are, so the rapid growth we've been seeing for the past five years will slow to a more manageable 1 - 2% a year. A slowing of rental revenues will also contribute, as customers begin to get more content through video on demand and streaming than renting at the local store or via Netflix. Online revenues have also grown 67% faster than physical store sales since 1997. Another number to note is that 491 titles were released on DVD in 2005, with 158 so far this year in high definition. Give a few more releases for the remainder of the year, and we can give a decent prediction of 238 by January, which means almost half of the number released on standard DVD. Not terrible for the launch year of two brand new formats, and considering the percentage of sales expected.
Apple Matters does the math on Think Secret's accuracy
I'll admit to being just as interested in what Apple has up their sleeve as the next guy, but I've always harbored a chip on my shoulder towards the rumor sites. The constant 'anonymous' sources who wind up all too often being as clueless as they are nameless have always irked me, and James R. Stoup at Apple Matters decided to take Think Secret, one of the largest rumor mongers out there, to task to see just how accurate they've actually been.Mr. Stoup did the math that was a long time coming and surveyed Think Secret's reports on Apple products between January 05 - September 06. You should really check out the results, as he did a bang-up job detailing everything he found, but to summarize: James found that Think Secret's accuracy can get pretty black and white; either they nail it or they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a wrecking ball. He also discovered some patterns in terms of which kinds of products Think Secret typically nabs correctly, concluding that they have a fairly good batting average with Mac hardware and iPods, but their 'inside scoops' on software tend to represent that aforementioned wayward wrecking ball.Take a look at James' post for the real (and thorough) details of his findings, but don't think he's trying to bash the rumor gurus, Think Secret or otherwise. After all, what Apple fan doesn't hold at least some place in their heart for rumors of what shiny new thing Apple might have coming up? I think James' investigation should serve at least as a reminder that rumors are exactly that: rumors, and not much more. One is merely rolling the dice when reading these sites and building up hopes of a fancy new [insert name here] or a product revision.With that said, we'll be sure to stay on top of the latest gossip to make sure y'all can decide whether the latest iPhone or media center rumors could be worth that extra wait.
