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When it comes to launching your app, Sunday is tops
If you're a developer, your app is more likely to be successful if you launch it on a Sunday. That's according to a 17-week analysis by mobile analytics firm Mobilewalla. The company looked at the apps released on a daily basis in Apple's App Store and Android's Market from May 16 to September 8th. During that time, 91,754 iOS apps were released in the App Store. Among that pool of apps, those launched on a Sunday performed statistically better than those released on other days of the week. By "statistically better" Mobilewalla means that 42% of the apps released on a Sunday made it into the top 240 highest downloaded apps. Those launched on Monday-Saturday didn't fare as well, with Friday being the worst. Only 10% of apps released on a Friday made it into the App Store's top 240 spots. Another interesting find from the study, as noted by TechCrunch, was that an app released into Apple's App Store was four times more likely to be discovered than an app released into the Android Market. The founder of Mobilewalla theorizes that the reason for this is that Apple's App Store is easier to use, search, and navigate than Android's Market.
NPD: Outside of the iPad, TouchPad's fire sales make it number one
Analysis firm NPD has released one last report on tablet computers before the holiday season officially kicks off, and something crazy is happening to that market. Outside of the iPad (which of course is currently dominating the space), the next big contender goes to ... the HP TouchPad, a device which has already been discontinued. Despite simply selling off its stock of tablets at discounted prices, HP has earned itself a 17% share in the market, enough to top the next manufacturer on the list, Samsung. That's kind of crazy, and it shows you just how quickly and powerfully Apple has leaped ahead in this market. I do think we're at a sort of weird crossroads in the tablet space, however. The Kindle Fire from Amazon just released recently, and it's not hard to guess that we'll see some nice sales of that tablet over the holidays. And as the HP news proves, while the iPad may be dominant in the space in terms of quality and features, price can still be a motivator to push tablet brands forward. NPD also says that "76% of consumers who purchased a non-Apple tablet didn't even consider the iPad," so clearly there's a large market of non-Apple buyers out there looking for a cheaper alternative. That said, we'll also see plenty of iPad sales over the holiday season, no doubt. The tablet market is just getting started, and already Apple has a very nice head start. [via MacRumors]
Analysis determines why Angry Birds is so popular
Here, finally, must certainly be the last word on Angry Birds. Certified Human Factors Engineering Professional Charles L. Mauro has done an exhaustive report called "A Cognitive Teardown of Angry Birds," in which he breaks down, piece by ever-lovin' piece, the throw-birds-at-pigs game and just what it does to users and their experiences. The whole thing is quite interesting if you're into user experience design, but the gist is that Angry Birds fits extremely well within our brains' "mental model" of what the game should be. Not only is that bird-tossing physics engine easily calculated into our cranium, but the game's bite-sized levels (which you can scroll across to re-check at any time) also play into our short-term memory programming as well. And finally, Angry Birds nails down the visual experience by being both simple enough for almost anyone to understand, but just complicated enough to remember in an iconic way (so much so that the characters in the game have been turned into cakes, costumes, and even, um, bras. What Angry Birds did is no secret (and lots of other games have aped its look and aesthetics since -- that "star rating on tons of levels" feature is now an iOS staple), but Mauro has done an excellent job really breaking down point by point why this game is so astoundingly successful on a cognitive level. [via Slashdot]
Modern Warfare 3 pre-orders near 9 million, analyst says
According to Lazard Capital Markets' Atul Bagga, as reported by GameSpot, pre-orders for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 were nearly three times that of Battlefield 3, which pegs Activision's shooter at around 9 million pre-orders. The estimate puts Modern Warfare 3 pre-orders roughly 70 percent ahead of those for Modern Warfare 2 and 55 percent beyond Call of Duty: Black Ops. Furthermore, the analyst expects Modern Warfare 3 to move a full 20 million copies by the end of the year. Those aren't exactly outlandish estimates, given the success of the franchise. Perhaps a more interesting study would be to gauge how many people are skipping work to play. Frankly, with Skyrim launching later this week, we fear worldwide productivity will flatline forever.
Experts on Nintendo's immediate future, post-losses
Last week's news was tragic for Nintendo: Profits for its fiscal first half were deeply in the red to the tune of $926 million. A near $1-billion six-month loss is potentially catastrophic for most companies, but for a game company like Nintendo the profits typically come at the end of the fiscal year, the period ending in March, which includes the heavy holiday buying season. First and second quarter losses are not unheard of; they're even expected. What isn't expected, at least for Nintendo, is a potential loss for the entire fiscal year, which is what Nintendo is facing this year, projecting revenues $264 million in the red for the first time since the company began reporting profits in 1981. To get some perspective on what this means for Nintendo and, perhaps, the game industry, I spoke with two men who have been following recent events intently, and Nintendo as a whole for most of its existence: Kyle Orland, News Editor at Gamasutra, founder of Super Mario Bros. HQ and self-confessed "Nintendo fanboy," and Bill Harris, industry analyst and blogger at Dubious Quality.
Microsoft reveals Data Explorer tool, gets into the sorbet business (video)
Redmond houses quite a few little teams beavering away on quirky projects and one of those has just gone public with its latest creation. It's codenamed "Data Explorer", which perhaps isn't an ideal codename since it describes exactly what the enterprise-focused service does. Instead of manually searching and copying data into a report, Data Explorer pulls information from SQL databases, spreadsheets and other "random sources" that could be relevant, and then attempts to "clean it up, transform it, merge it together and then publish it out" as a coherent report. You can learn more and sign up for the beta at the source link, or click past the break to watch a Microsoft exec demo the tool using a real-world case study -- we found it a bit dense, but you'll be fine as long as you remember that kids love frozen yogurt.
Asymco graphs Apple's performance under Steve Jobs
Asymco always has great graphical analysis of Apple's performance, and the site's latest is no exception. Dirk Schmidt has analyzed Apple's market cap during the Steve Jobs era, and the graphs show just how dramatic Apple's turnaround was during Jobs's time as CEO. At the beginning of Jobs's tenure, Apple's market cap was lower than every one of its competitors. But after an average 42 percent increase in market cap from 1997 to 2011, Apple became the most valuable publicly-traded company in the world. Asymco's second graph, which shows Apple's of combined market cap among its competitors, shows how dramatic an effect Apple has had on the tech sector. Almost everyone is getting squeezed by Apple's ascendancy, but it seems Microsoft has been hit hardest of all; the company that Windows built has gone from over 50 percent of the market cap share down to measurably less than Apple's share. If you're a graph junkie, definitely head over to Asymco and check out their analysis for yourself.
What would a 4S mean to you?
I love my 3GS. I still use it on a daily basis as one of my primary dev units. It has a lovely PayGo SIM in it, with inexpensive data. It's an absolutely brilliant device and my love for my iPhone 4 does not diminish the 3GS's utility. I never bothered to purchase an iPhone 3G. Although I used several on contracts, it never passed the barrier of "worth buying." From several years distance, I'm even more sure that I made the right choice. (And yes, I know there are many of you out there who adore your 3G units. I'm not trying to take away from that.) The iPhone 3G was basically a first generation phone with upgrade 3G/GPS capabilities and a slightly modified case. But the iPhone 3GS? It was a completely different beast under the hood. The 3G vs the 3GS The model numbers tell it all. The first generation iPhone was the iPhone 1,1. The 3G was the iPhone 1,2. With the same processor, the same memory, etc, not much had changed -- especially if the 3G service in your area was spotty. With good 3G coverage, the usability took a huge jump forward, but for much of Denver at the time that simply wasn't a factor. Fast forward to the iPhone 3GS (aka the iPhone 2,1). Belying its visual and tactile similarity to the 3G, it was a completely different animal. With a massively improved chip, better RAM, a usable autofocus camera, improved battery life and stand-out features like Voice Control, it truly distinguished itself. The name might have been similar, the case might have been similar, but the phone was not. iPhone 4S or iPhone 5 That's why I don't care if the new phone in October will be an iPhone 4S versus an iPhone 5. Yes, I expect the form factor to mirror the iPhone 4 (which, frankly, is a great phone). The early release of cases supports that form likelihood. But I'm thinking that there's a lot Apple can get done with extra chip power and possibly more RAM, along with the same brilliant Retina display. The camera may get a boost, and I would be delighted if the capacities each got a power-up -- although I'm always thinking capacities will go up and they never really do as much as I think they will. I'm also thinking that we're going to see extra hardware features like battery bumps, additional sensors, and more. It's fruitless to speculate, however, as to what Apple will surprise you with. As for an iPhone 5, what would make me sad would be if I signed up for a 4S contract and the iPhone 5 debuted fewer than six months later. Of course, Apple could possibly introduce both at once, but I'm wondering why all the buzz, and all the early retail leaks seem to have missed the 5 unit (which we've had hints about in terms of parts and production, but little solid in the way of facts). The winning iPhone 4S scenario I'd be particularly happy if iPhone 4S sold with two key elements: multi-carrier support built-in, and sold contract-free. Admittedly, my world view is heavily influenced by the fact that I often need at least one of each unit on-hand for writing and development. At the same time, I think I could still recommend both the 3GS and the 4 as solid purchase options for anyone jumping onto the iPhone bandwagon. I'd probably recommend against going into a contract with the 3GS. I'd also recommend springing for a newer 4S over a 4 unless there were some brilliant financing at work, but a 4 remains a really great model. What tantalizes is that we have had enough rumors of a 5 with a redesigned case to be at least somewhat credible. However, the evidence for the 4S is building to inevitable with multiple sources chiming in over the last few weeks. Jump now or wait? So the question people coming to me with is this: Should I jump on the 4S or hold out for the 5? My answer is this: If you still haven't bought iPhone or are upgrading for the iPhone 3GS or earlier, grab the 4S. I bet it's going to be spectacular. For iPhone 4 owners, whose contracts are due to run out in February or later (or so my latest query tells me from AT&T), and who don't need the latest/greatest right away -- you probably can afford to wait. If you really want to wait. Of course, come October everything may change. If Apple announces must-have features that mirror the 3GS-from-3G or 4-from-3GS transition brilliance, just drop everything. Pay the fines, buy the goodies. Because Apple has delivered brilliant in the past. There's no reason to think it won't do so again.
MMO subscription dollars in decline for the first time since 2002
With all of the free-to-play MMOs coming onto the market and the F2P conversion of formerly subscription-only titles, it should come as no surprise that the subscription model is losing its grip on the industry. Eurogamer reports that starting in 2010, the money brought in from MMO subscriptions has actually gone into decline for the first time ever since analysts began tracking it in 2002. 2010's subscription revenue added up to $1.58 billion, a respectable amount but still 5% less than 2009. 2009 saw a 10% bump in subscriptions, and 2008 witnessed 21.6% growth. Connect the dots, and subscription revenue has most likely peaked and begun a downhill slide. Analysts predict that by 2015, revenue from subs will be as low as $1.33 billion. However, with the popularity of RIFT this year and the coming storm of Star Wars: The Old Republic, the subscription model may see a resurgence. On the flip side, microtransactions from F2P models are rising exponentially, jumping 24% from 2009 to 2010 to account for $1.13 billion. With the two models combined, the industry saw a very modest 5% increase last year in revenue. Screen Digest analyst Piers Harding-Rolls sees the writing on the wall: "The focus of many PC game operators has clearly shifted to micro-transaction‐based models -- in part due to competition in the subscription market especially in the high‐end MMOG segment, but also because of the flexibility micro-transactions offer operators in monetising gamers."
Online sales will dominate the market by 2013
If you purchase your video games from a brick and mortar retailer, chances are you will be in the minority in just a couple of years. GamesIndustry.biz cites a new report that predicts online game sales will become the dominant force in the market by 2013 through individual websites, retailers like Amazon.com, and video game distributors like Steam. A DFC Intelligence analyst noted that boxed game sales already peaked in 2008, and that as physical game sales slowly decline, online sales will pick up at a marked pace. DFC is a research and consulting firm that covers the field of video games. Last year, online game retailers sold over $19.3 billion worth of digital merchandise -- a figure that's expected to rise to $37.9 billion by 2016. While real-world stores have much to worry about as the market shifts in the direction of online sales, the industry as a whole is expected to continue to substantially increase its growth over the next half-decade. One of the "key drivers" for that growth is PC games. The analysts also predicted that in-game advertising will increase two-fold in the next few years as advertisers realize the potential for this blossoming market.
Samsung Galaxy S II logs confirm NFC support for AT&T, none for Sprint
What's the point of investing $100 million in a mobile payment system if you don't have the goods to back it up? AT&T may be adopting this philosophy, beginning with the Galaxy S II. With the aid of eagle-eyed Android dev François Simond, we conducted an extended analysis of Ma Bell's latest gem and discovered it's rife with NFC. In addition to containing kernel drivers and a pre-installed APK, the system files also indicate the device is running in a mode named NDEF -- short for NFC Data Exchange Format. We haven't been able to determine if the handset will be capable of making payments, but the presence of Near-Field Communications in the Galaxy S II is definitely a good sign. T-Mobile is keeping a tight lid on its variant for the moment, preventing us from getting an in-depth look, but FCC filings confirm it will contain NFC as well. As for the third handset announced last night, the Epic 4G Touch contains no mention of NFC. Upon further analysis, we uncovered something else potentially more disturbing: it's using the same WiMAX module (cmc732) as the Samsung Nexus S 4G, a handset that was plagued with performance issues when it was originally released (those concerns were eventually resolved in a later update). In this case, it's hard to tell if that means we'll relive the painful experience once again, or if it will come with improved firmware to ensure it doesn't take the same path as its 4G brother. We're starting to unravel the mysteries, folks, and will continue to fill you in as we learn more. If you're considering one of these three lovely models, will these discoveries sway your decision in a particular direction? [Thanks, François Simond]
Finch usage tracker for OS X disappoints
For $8.99, Touch Studio's Finch app for OS X promises to to quietly track your computer usage as you work. With it, you should be able to monitor which apps and sites you spend the most time in, and adjust your workday accordingly. Finch runs in your menu bar, keeping track of your usage by monitoring window title bars. It offers instant reports showing the duration of window use per app. The problem is that Finch doesn't do this very well. Monitoring While The User is Absent If you leave a window open when you're rushing out to dinner, Finch records the entire time it's there. There doesn't seem to be any activity trigger beyond the fact that the window is on-screen. In my tests, that caused a lot of false-data which showed I spent more time at certain sites than I actually did. There really needs to be some kind of time-out on these. Incorrect Multiple Results What's more, Finch sometimes had problems keeping track of staying on the same page. While writing up this post, it reported dozens of visits, all to the same page, the one I'm typing into right now. Nothing changed as far as I can tell in my title bar, even when I hit the "Save" button at regular intervals. No Application-by-Application Results Finch doesn't group its results by application because it only looks at titles, I couldn't build up usage stats for "How long was I in Email? How long in Firefox? In Safari? In Echofon?" You'd imagine that would be a big part of analyzing usage patterns, but it's not part of the app. No Sessions Nor can you create regular sessions to automatically monitor your workday. I'm only interested in usage between 7:30 AM and 3:30 PM. Finch provides no support for this kind of regular monitoring and no way to do session-by-session trend analysis. Stalking Finally, there's one more thing. And it's totally not Finch's fault. The app is creepy. It's like an electronic stalker looking over your shoulder. Every window you visit. Every website, no matter how stupid or crazy or embarrassing is listed in the results. There's no way to filter with Finch to only look at the usage patterns that are relevant to you. If you click a RickRoll link in your business e-mail, that site is going to be added to your Finch history. Summary All in all, I like the idea behind Finch better than the implementation. I hope Touch Studio continues developing the product but does so in a way that better lends itself to business use and "Getting Things Done" (GTD) analysis. As is, I cannot recommend it.
Daily iPad App: Extra Innings Mobile Instructor
Extra Innings Mobile Instructor is a training app to help you analyze a baseball swing or pitch. It records or imports video and provides you with a set of tools to mock-up the video as you critique the player's movement. You can also use the app to submit the video clip to an expert who'll professionally analyze your swing or pitch. To use the app you'll need a baseball swing recorded using an iOS device (iPhone, iPad 2) or imported from your video library. If you're a coach, you'll have ample opportunity to take video of your team. The video recording feature has a nice focus box that helps you line up the player to get the perfect shot for the analysis. Once the video clip has been added to the Extra Innings, it only takes a few clicks to send the video to EI for analysis by a baseball professional. Each analysis is available as an in-app purchase that costs $15. If you want to analyze the video yourself, you can launch the editing feature and mark up the video using a built-in set of tools. You can add shapes, draw freehand with a pencil tool, add text notes and even record audio. You can add these overlays to the entire video or apply them to specific sections. When you are done with your analysis, you can export the video and email it off to the recipient. The app supports folders so you organize your videos by player, team, and more. The Extra Innings app is a must have for any parent whose children play baseball or a coach of a team. It's great for little league all the way through high school. Colleges can also use it, but if you're playing at that level, you likely have high-speed cameras and other advanced tools for analysis. Extra Innings Mobile Instructor is available for the iPad, iPhone and iPod touch running iOS 4.2 or later. It's priced at a very reasonable $4.99.
Forrester: iPad may be (slightly) more vulnerable in Europe
Sometimes the market-research business can be tough. On the same day that a German court blocked sales of the Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 in almost every EU country, a new report from Forrester Research arrives on the scene -- and it says that if Apple competitors want to take on the iPad, Europe might be the right market. Hope they've got a healthy supply of correction fluid! Forrester predicts that Apple will take over 80 percent of all tablet sales in North America this year. However, the odds are a little better for other manufacturers in Europe, where Apple will "only" claim 70 percent of the market. That seems kind of a minor distinction to make (Apple is still obviously dominating, at least for this year), but it's true -- other tablet makers will probably have to go for every advantage they can get. In Europe, says Forrester, Apple doesn't quite have the retail presence it enjoys in North America, and the culture (cult?) of Apple isn't quite as engrained as it is this side of the Atlantic Ocean. Combine that with the fact that, according to both customer surveys and past sales, Europe is willing to buy tablets, and other tablet manufacturers may find more fertile ground there. Who will sell tablets in Europe? Forrester isn't saying who might top the market just yet, but says that price will be a big selling point, meaning low cost producers from Asia and elsewhere have a good chance as well.
University deploys ninja tactics to research our MMO gameplay
Welcome to 1984, MMO players! Researchers at the University of Minnesota have decided to launch Ninja Metrics, which is a software startup focusing on the analysis of data with the goal of "[identifying] key traits upon massive multiplayer online gaming communities." According to the researchers, this data will allow game developers to "identify each player's psycho-social motivations, and take action to help ensure enhanced user experience." Jaideep Srivastava, co-inventor and cofounder of the startup company, claims that Ninja Metrics will be able to use the data it gathers in order to "identify user trends, target key players, and predict when a player may cancel their account." That's right, Ninja Metrics may know when you'll get burnt out on a game before you do! The key to this new analytical technique, according to Srivastava, is identifying the social influences of consumer communities and determining their effects on said communities. Should the startup prove successful, game developers may have another tool at their disposal with which to ensure their players are getting the best gaming experience possible. Just remember, Big Brother is watching!
Study: Average customer spends $14 in freemium games on iOS and Android
This is pretty crazy news from mobile analytics firm Flurry: The average customer in a freemium game on iOS and Android spends $14 in any given transaction, according to their latest data. The same study already revealed that in-app purchases have overtaken standard purchases when it comes to mobile apps, but this set of data shows that when customers do bite the bullet on in-app purchases, they're taking much bigger bites than a lot of people might expect. 13% of those who spend money on freemium games are spending over $20, which means that these players are extremely committed to the games they're actually shelling out money for. And when the standard purchase price of a console videogame at a retail store is around $60, it's not hard to see why very committed players are willing to spend $20, $40, or even a full $60 via an in-app purchase on a game they love and got for completely free. Those high numbers make the average that high value of $14. Keep in mind, however, that this is the average for in-app purchases only -- including players who don't spend any money in these apps would bring the average way down, as this is still only a small percentage of players spending money to begin with. In fact, Flurry found that half of all freemium revenue is actually generated by this 13% who spend high amounts of money on these games. That means that freemium developers are getting a large part of their revenue from a relatively few big spenders, customers who really love the games and are willing (or able -- it's unknown how many of these players are spending their parents' or someone else's money here) to shell out a lot of cash on the title. This is really interesting information, and it shows that freemium gaming, while still popular, is still dependent on just a few customers with lots of money to spend.
Report: 3.5 million 3D Blu-ray discs 'sold' in first year, half were bundled with hardware
If we're looking at sales figures of 3.5 million units in the first year for a new laptop, smartphone, or camera, then we might be impressed. But 3D Blu-ray discs? When half were included in the box with a Blu-ray player? Man, that's gotta sting. Those numbers are based on an IHS Screen Digest estimate, tallying US sales beginning in June of 2010 and ending last month, though many larger titles didn't make their debut until later in the year. Still, if those results are even in the ballpark of official (unreleased) numbers from BD distributors, then things really aren't looking up for 3D. With fewer than 100 titles even available on Blu-ray, however, we're not really surprised that discs aren't exactly flying off the shelves. Obviously, as a growing number of movies are filmed in 3D we'll see BD title availability increase as well, but with the technology's lackluster beginnings over the last year and no sign that consumers are ready to spend more to embrace that new dimension, 3D may continue its slow crawl toward the mainstream for some time to come.
EEDAR: PSN Welcome Back program spurred download sales
According to a new report from analytics firm EEDAR, Sony's PlayStation Network Welcome Back program did more than boost user morale: it actually boosted purchases of downloadable titles. Using data gathered from IGN GamerMetrics, ownership of downloadable titles jumped from 13 percent in March, before the PSN first went down, up to 17 percent in June. The jump isn't surprising, given the free titles Sony made available. Even taking those out of the equation, though, downloadable ownership was still up to 15 percent in June. The firm also noted that interest in sequels to the free games, notably LittleBigPlanet and Dead Nation, rose significantly. Specifically, LittleBigPlanet 2 trailer views were up 69 percent on GameTrailers, while Google Insights data indicated a greatly increased number of searches for the term "Dead Nation 2." Based on the increased interest in sequels to the free titles in the Welcome Back program, EEDAR suggests a possible new model for sequel releases. Essentially, in order to drum up interest for upcoming sequels, publishers could release their respective predecessors for free for a limited time. The report acknowledges that this is a risky maneuver, though it notes that the free titles would only have to boost sales of their sequels by a small margin for the practice to be profitable.
Study reveals Apple surpasses RIM in US smartphone share
Apple is now the #2 mobile platform in the US with 26.6% market share. Apple rose 1.4 percentage points and inched past RIM which now holds 24.7% of the US market. Similar to Apple, Android also gained market share grabbing another 5.1 percentage points to climb to 38.1% market share. Rim took the biggest plunge with a loss of 4.2 percentage points. These metrics are from Comscore's latest report which monitored smarpthone usage for the three-month period ending in May 2011. On a manufacturer basis, Apple showed the greatest gain, jumping from 7.5% to 8.7% market share. Though it's far from being the leader (Samsung is #1 with 24.8%), Apple continues to move upward while rivals like Samsung, Motorola and RIM remained steady or slid slightly. If this trend continues, the US smartphone market could become a two-horse race with Android and iOS vying for the lead. A third platform could grab the bulk of the leftovers. Right now RIM is sitting pretty in third, but if it continues its downward slide, it might lose its spot to the onslaught of Windows Phone handsets expected from the Microsoft-Nokia partnership. [Via GigaOm]
What Harry Potter e-books mean for Apple
Unless you were somehow locked into a Petrificus Totalus for most of the previous day, you've probably heard of J.K. Rowling's Pottermore, an online extension of the Harry Potter universe that will feature games, information about the series not previously released in the books, and more. Of course, the headliner for the October launch of Pottermore is the planned release of all seven Potter novels (finally!) as e-books. Pottermore also deals a major blow to Apple, which will lose the right to sell the Harry Potter audiobooks when Pottermore launches, the Financial Times reports. Apple landed the exclusive deal with Rowling in 2005 to release the audiobooks on iTunes. Apple did not release a statement in response to the Pottermore announcement, the Wall Street Journal stated. While the books will be available for the iPhone and iPad, they won't be purchased through iBooks. Rowling said in her announcement that she did not want to be locked into a single digital format for her books. As such, the book will be DRM-free, an announcement that has a good many fans cheering, but is a kick in the teeth to companies such as Apple, Amazon and UK's Waterstone, which expressed its "disappointment" at not landing the books. Despite the lost sales to Apple and other e-book storefronts, Pottermore will deliver the interactive experience that iPad-formatted books can (and do) achieve. Users can navigate through the story of the first Harry Potter book while discovering extra material from Rowling that never made it into the books. Want to know the back history of Professor Minerva McGonagall? Pottermore's where you'll find it. When you get sorted into a house, you'll go to your own common room and learn information that's specific to the story role you've assumed. Want a different part of the story? Take on a different role. It's the marriage of text and interactivity that would be perfect for iBooks. If Apple had been able to woo Rowling to iBooks, it would have been the literary equivalent of landing the Beatles. Rowling is pointedly eschewing all major e-book sellers while boosting the e-book market at the same time. Apple won't get its 30 percent cut of the millions of Harry Potter e-books that are guaranteed to sell. At the same time, neither will Amazon, Waterstone or anyone else beyond Rowling's print publishers Bloomsbury and Scholastic, which will get a share of the revenue, and Sony, which is a partner in the endeavor. Furthermore, Rowling's smart business move to hold onto her digital-publishing rights could spread to other top-selling authors that are already mainstays in iBooks. While not all authors have the financial might that Rowling does, it could tempt other authors, such as Nora Roberts, Suzanne Collins, James Patterson and the estate of Stieg Larsson, to reconsider their digital-publishing options. All of these authors are members of Amazon's so-called Kindle Million Club, those who have sold a million or more e-books for the Kindle, and they bring in a hefty chunk of change for Apple as well. If I could see anyone taking the Pottermore route next, it would be Nora Roberts. She's written more than 200 novels (including those published under the pseudonym J.D. Robb). She and her husband own Turn the Page, an independent bookstore in Boonsboro, Md., with two rooms filled with her books and merchandise based on her works. I can easily see her brokering some deal that keeps her print publishers, which include The Penguin Group, satisfied while retaining more control over her work and not forking over money to companies, such as Apple and Amazon, just for the privilege to sell through their online stores. Roberts, like most other bestselling authors, has her books released under the agency model where the publisher establishes the price and was largely adopted thanks to the iPad. The agency model caused bestselling e-books to rise to between $13-15 rather than the $9.99 many e-book users have come to expect. The cost of an e-book version of a mass-market paperback novel is roughly the same as the print edition, which makes e-book fans fume. Harry Potter e-book prices haven't been revealed, but it'll be interesting to see what Rowling charges. If she can undercut the agency model while retaining a larger share of the profits, it'll make the temptation to go it alone even bigger to bestselling authors. Or, even if she retains standard e-book pricing, the draw of having a DRM-free library accessible to any e-book reader is still attractive, as well as finally having a legal set of Harry Potter e-books. We're going to have to wait and see what Pottermore does before we can see any lasting impact on Apple. Of course, the loss of the audiobooks is a substantial blow; they are still making the bestselling audiobook charts on iTunes with "Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone" ("Sorcerer's Stone" for us Yanks) coming in at #10 in the UK store and #18 in the US store. There's no question that Pottermore will succeed. Avid Potter fans, myself included, won't care where the books are purchased from -- as long as they're finally available legally, in a format that's going to work for the growing plethora of e-book readers.
