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PS3 shipments hit 2 million worldwide
Better late than never, right? Though Sony missed their initial goal of shipping 2 million Playstation 3 consoles by the end of 2006, two weeks spent in the new year brings them up to speed. According to a GameDaily Biz report, Sony Computer Entertainment has announced a 1 million shipment milestone in Japan, thus bringing the global total to 2 milllion. Officials point out that in the Playstation family, the PS3 has been the quickest in reaching this number.Next up, Sony will tackle a lofty 6 million shipment target for the end of March, with success largely depending on how the system fares in Europe when it launches in the same month. Japanese analysts aren't particularly optimistic, with Nomura Securities predicting that only 4.5 million units will ship by then. Further numbers revealed by Sony are the 5 million in collective PS3 software shipments, 500,000 Playstation network users and the over 300,000 downloads enjoyed by the Gran Turismo HD demo.
Holiday 2006 console sales figures erroneous
As many of you may or may not have seen, yesterday El Reg ran a story based on a CNBC report which stated that during the holidays (namely from November to December of last year), the numbers shook out such that the big three console game companies moved: 2 million Xbox 360s, 1.8 million Wiis, and 750,000 PS3s. We thought that report sounded a bit dubious, and now according to NPD, CNBC mis-cited a not-yet-existent report. The numbers, which are now considered to be erroneous, don't really correlate to anything on NPD's end as their forthcoming console retail report (which will include compiled retailed sales figures) will not be released for another week or so. (We still don't really have any idea what report it was CNBC was actually citing.) Although it wouldn't really surprise us if Xbox-Wii-PS3 is the actual order the console sales took over the last couple of months, as far as we know there isn't yet any evidence to support that assertion, so we'll all have to wait and see exactly which group of fanboys is proved right or wrong in '06.
Today's hottest game video: Wii roundtable
Today's most-watched GameTrailers video is part three of the site's Bonus Round look at the Wii. These roundtable sequences -- albeit without the table -- feature musician Tommy Tallarico, analyst Michael Pachter, and game producer Peter Wanat sharing their opinions on the Wii.The industry personalities are worth a listen, although we're most anticipating to the fourth -- and final -- episode; it's billed as their thoughts on the long-term prospects of the Wii.See the video after the break.
Analyst: PS3 will win with 75 million units by 2010
Another day, another analyst throwing out their predictions for the console wars. This time it's a Datamonitor report predicting Sony will "win the console war in the long term with an install base of around 75 million globally by 2010." That may sound impressive, but considering the PS2 has already sold in excess of 111 million systems worldwide, this would still represent a sizable hit for Sony. Indeed, Datamonitor predicts that the PS3 won't "dominate as much as its predecessor" because of delays in Europe and early inroads by the Xbox 360. Oh analysts, can't you make up your mind? Is Sony going to win big in the long run or fall into last place? Are they going to lead the market or is the system dragging the whole company down? We know you're basically just taking shots in the dark but, well, we were just hoping for some more consistent grouping, is all. [Via Pro-G]
Analysts predict declining DVD sales in 2007
Although HDTVs were atop nearly everyone's holiday wish list, it seems that folks aren't splurging as much on their now-stagnant DVD collection as in years past, which could be an "early warning sign" for 2007. According to a recent report by Pali Research analysts Richard Greenfield and Mark Smaldon, next year could be the first year in consumer spending history that DVD sales actually decline. The report is based on Best Buy / Circuit City's relatively sluggish 2006 disc sales, and when you consider the sagging record sales on the music front, the scenario isn't too hard to fathom. Although there's no pinpointed reason why folks aren't divulging quite as much disposable income on DVDs, some analysts suggest that the onset of internet movie downloads and films on demand are cutting into actual disc sales -- something Comcast (and other providers) could have a hand in. Notably, folks are bearish when speculating about the HD DVD and Blu-ray impact, as they say that high definition films won't sell enough to put a dent in the expected downturn, which could bleed all the way into 2008.
Analysts discuss 2006, console futures
Gamasutra asks several industry analysts about this year and what they expect to happen in the next several years. The open-mic blurbs offer a few opinions, but many share the theme that Xbox 360 sales have been weaker-than-expected and PS2 sales are still significant; put together, these trends suggest that most gamers are still waiting for 360/PS3/Wii-only games before upgrading their consoles.We also wonder how the HD-expectations of the PS3 and Xbox 360 impact the market; gamers with standard TVs will see little difference in graphic quality over the previous system. Are gamers slow to upgrade because they're waiting for the killer apps, or do they plan to first get an HDTV? At least 2007's anticipated exclusives -- especially for the oldest of the three, the Xbox 360 -- will ease one of those issues.
Another analyst: Microsoft execs feeling good about Xbox
Now, some psychoanalysis on Microsoft executives would be quite entertaining ("Tell me about these lucid dreams, Peter."), especially when compared to the recent observations made by Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets. In his earth-shattering report, Mr. Sebastian describes the folks behind the Xbox brand as "upbeat" given the commercial success of Gears of War, the company's considerable launch lead against competitors and consistent growth in Europe. Japan, not so much.The Xbox 360's 2007 lineup (featuring Space Ring 3) and catalogue of HD shows and movies are also expected to have a positive effect on this year's holiday sales. Sebastian believes that fleeting Wii and PS3 stock will prove to be Microsoft's greatest advantage, with desperate parents picking up a 360 and convincing their rotten brats that it was the only console they could find. It's a likely scenario, but if recent sales in Japan have proven anything, it's that the PS2 and DS Lite are far more likely (and cheaper) replacements -- if indeed a replacement is sought at all. How about a nice fruitcake instead?
Analyst: Sony to win big in long run
Microsoft's head start will give them the market share lead through 2007, but Sony will win in the long run with almost 60 percent of the market by 2012. That's the determination of research firm Strategy Analytics, whose Connected Home Devices service predicts Sony's 121.8 million PS3s will dwarf Microsoft's 59.7 million Xbox 360s in this console generation. The company sees the Nintendo Wii as almost a non-factor with only 23.3 million units sold through 2012.Among the other predictions in the report: 9 million total consoles sold this holiday season 39.1 million consoles sold in 2007 204.8 million consoles sold through 2012 50 percent of all console sales coming from North America this generation. The report sees this holiday period as crucial for Microsoft, which has to prove there is still demand for the Xbox 360 past the early adopters who have bought over 6 million systems so far. The key for Microsoft, they argue, is to lure away enough disappointed potential PS3 buyers in the next few weeks to maintain their early lead well into the future.The report seems to put a lot of stake in the name recognition and current dominance of the PlayStation brand, which will force other console makers to convince consumers to "switch camps." Only time will tell whether customer loyalty can overcome high prices, hardware shortages and heavy marketing from Sony's competitors.Read - Report summaryRead - Press release announcing results[Via GameDaily]
Analysts put 360 on top by 2010
It seems like some market research firm has a new prediction for the game industry every day. One day, the PS3 is on top. The next, it's Wii, Wii, Wii (all the way home). Today's chart is all about the 360. IDG estimates that the Xbox 360 will sell 23.9 million units in North America by 2010, followed by the PS3 at 23.5 million, with the Wii in a distant third at 13.6 million units sold. Okay, so for the 360's sake, it's really more of a tie. Granted, these numbers are only for North America, so we have no idea where this puts 360 in a global perspective. Still, most predictions we've seen put the PS3 on top. That makes this chart special. Take off your Fanboy hat for a minute and answer this question: could the 360 really outsell the entrenched juggernaut that is the Playstation?[Via Joystiq]
Two redesigned PSPs coming next Spring, say analysts
It's that time of the year again. Yep. Another analyst is talking about a PSP redesign, but this one's a bit more ambitious than the other ones: Paul-Jon McNealy of American Technical Research has predicted the appearance of two new models, one below $199 and one above. "Sony will likely introduce a refresh of the PSP hardware line, including a hard-disk drive PSP and a second PSP with no hard drive but with a significant amount of flash memory on board." Sounds a lot like the other rumor about a redesign.Considering how frequently these redesign reports pop up, I'm going to place my bet that a redesign will come out... eventually (no matter how often Sony denies it). Will it be next Spring, as predicted?[Via International Business Times]
Apple's US market share still falling and rising with the tides
Yesterday's prelim 4th quarter report was great news for Apple's health as a manufacturer of personal computers - they shipped over 1.6 million Macs, the most ever in a quarter and 30% more than the previous quarter. Today's news of a rise to 6.1 percent market share in the U.S. from Gartner, however, has the Mac web doing the market share dance all over again, as just a year ago this month it was the NPD Group reporting that Apple's U.S. market share - excluding online sales - had risen to 6.6 percent. The confusion ensues when considering MacNN's conflicting report from Gartner claiming Apple's U.S. share just rose to 6.1 percent. Of course where and how these different groups are getting their numbers is unbeknownst to this blogger, but methinks something might have been lost in translation between all these analysts.Still, while market share numbers might be getting a little fuzzy as of late, we can at least trust Apple's announcement of selling the most.Macs.evar in a quarter, and that's alright with me.
Analyst: Wii could be a contender
Not long ago, analysts told us that Nintendo's lack of third party support was going to destroy the gaming industry. Today, however, we're told that Nintendo's strong third party base was going to propel the system into a great position in the console wars. Yes, you read that right -- those "informed opinions" are complete opposites.If anything, we expected analysts to dogpile on Nintendo's lower price as the reason it might succeed. After all, analysts are all about that money, and even the Wii's games will be cheaper than those for the 360 and PS3. But to be told the lynchpin of Nintendo's success wil be that very thing that was set to destroy the earth (well, the gaming market) only months ago?Well. That just makes us giggle. Are we sure they're not just making it all up? There's one thing they're right about, at least. With a solid launch lineup, a lower price tag, and Sony's determination to shoot themselves in the foot, Nintendo will definitely be a contender this holiday season.
On iPod pricing, competition and the value of a full package
I've noticed a couple reports from analyst firm Gartner Research that claim Apple's pricing on the new iPods betrays an increased interest in profit margins at the expense of market share. These reports focus on the iPod nano's pricing of $199/4GB and $249/8GB as being a bit high, given their estimated materials cost of $90 and $130, respectively. Admittedly, similar players from competitors such as Creative do beat out Apple in pricing; the ZEN V 4GB player is only $159.99 - but what rulebook dictates that a higher price on one particular member of a product family (by and far the most popular member) definitively means the company doesn't care about market share?These reports don't seem to mention anything about the nano's big brother (unless MacNN and Playlist used some sneaky cut and pasting techniques), where Apple is competing quite well: they dropped their 30GB iPod price to match that of Creative's 30GB ZEN Vision:M ($249), and the 60GB ZEN Vision:M (if you can find it on their site), is reportedly $399 - a full $50 more expensive for 20GB of less storage.Gartner's claim that competitors like Creative and Microsoft's new Zune could start chomping at the iPod's market share, based solely on the profit margins of one member of the family, also doesn't seem to take into account the value of the full package that Apple's iPod offers, such as seamless, 'it just works' integration with a leading digital media store (maybe Gatner simply forgot that the existence of Apple's margin-thin digital store leans fairly heavily on the popularity of the iPod). While there are plenty of consumers out there to whom a $40 difference between an iPod nano and a ZEN V can (understandably) make or break a purchase, the are still other important factors consumers can evaluate for a DAP purchase. Unfortunately, some of these elements aren't capable of being factored into an analyst's equations, but Apple is clearly still banking on their weight with a consumer's dollar.
Yet another analyst spells doom for PSP, predicts price drop
More analysts are joining the Sony-bashing party. In-Stat revealed that Nintendo's recently been making DS Lites at an incredible pace of 2.2 million units a month. By infiltrating the homes of the elderly, women and children, Nintendo has been planning to launch Skynet has been maintaining a healthy lead over the PSP. According to Mr. O'Rourke, he predicts the DS will outship the PSP by 25 to 30% this year.Like many other analysts, Mr. O'Rourke predicts that Sony will cut the price to somewhere in the 150 to 170 dollar range, which is similar to other estimates. Honestly, I don't think the PSP needs a price drop, but Sony will inevitably have to slash prices (even if they don't want to), or do a redesign to get all this negative press away from them.[Via TG Daily]
Analysts promise they're not just making it all up
Ever had the fleeting thought that maybe those video game analysts just don't quite know what they're about? Don't worry, it's not just you -- even they admit that the ever-changing market can be a challenge to ride.Next-Gen's Krist Graft sat down with Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities to discuss the challenges of predicting the business of video games. How does he do it? The same as any 'armchair' analyst, Pachter keeps up with the news. Some firms (like WMS) change their predictions as often as there are new developments, and this tumultuous week has brought about some major updates. What else? Analysts look for comparisons in gauging what's hot in the console war. He pointed to the success of the DS, particularly games that employ the stylus, as evidence that Nintendo is on the cutting edge of the interactivity that consumers want. Trend-spotting like that forms the basis of so much analysis in video games. What's the final verdict for us? "The Wii's going to crush," Pachter says. Well, we don't understand all this fancy-schmancy business jargon he's using there, but we have to agree.
Analyst becomes less bullish for Sony
Wedbush Morgan is one of those places where people sit around in a dark room, pondering the future. They make up numbers that predict future sales, shoot lightning out their hands, and they have three heads. Michael Pachter is one of those men. While he was optimistic for Sony's handheld at the beginning of the year, he seems to be reconsidering his position: "We are lowering ... our forecast for PSP sales from 8.5 million to 7.4 million, and increasing our expectation for DS sales from 6.5 million to 8 million."This isn't really too bad: even if PSP isn't number one in sales, it still has done much better than any non-Nintendo gaming handheld in the past. Regardless, the analyst had tons of good things to say about Nintendo, and not so much about Sony: he decreased his 2006 PS3 hardware sales estimate by 1 million units (to 3 million) and increased his 2006 Wii hardware sales by 500,000 to (4 million). Of course, it's not just the analyst that sees good things for Nintendo: the shareholders do as well.[News via Gamespot][Sales chart for US. DS has a few weeks extra data due to an earlier launch. Via VG Charts]
Analyst analysis: nano to hit 12GB, coming in Q4
We all know the stock demons deciding Apple's current share prices don't much like it when analysts predict product delays, but at least disparate market research and analysts are coming together on a somewhat cohesive picture of the next nano. Last week Gartner predicted a 10 and 12GB nano launch for Q406, nothing unusual so we passed on it -- but today Apple's stock took a tumble when Shaw Wu from American Technology Research announced they believe the new nanos -- which they expect to jump only to 4GB and 8GB -- will be delayed until December, while the (true) video iPod might not see the light of day until 2007. What did Shaw blame the delay on? No, not content deals, NAND memory shortages, or anything else of the like, Wu's blaming it on the transition from certain PortalPlayer chipsets that was reported a couple months back, which to the best of our knowledge wasn't even expected to affect their higher end non-flash offerings.
Wii will cost $200 say spectators
Nintendo Wii will launch at $200 in an attempt to undercut the competition, says an analyst at Merrill Lynch. An executive from SEGA goes further, suggesting that Wii will launch for under $200. This latest estimate sits in the middle of previous ones, but taken in the context of past console releases a $200 launch price wouldn't be out of character for Nintendo. The NES, SNES, Nintendo 64 and GameCube all launched at a price point of $200, so we wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo throws up their hands and says "why mess with tradition?"With the PS3's price confirmed, Nintendo's console is the last of the next-generation consoles to get a solid release price so it's natural that fans and analysts alike will continue the guessing game. As for the other type of price guessing game -- how much the Wii (PS3, Xbox 360) costs to make -- no-one has stepped up to the task just yet.[Via /.]
