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NPD suggests Apple had another record Mac quarter
A new report from NPD says that Apple has probably done it again, racking up yet another quarter of record Mac sales. NPD puts the number of Macs sold at 4.2 million, which would be a year-over-year gain of 12%, and make for the best record Apple's Mac sales have ever had. US Mac sales in general are down, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, but since the reasons for that are the impending Lion release, as well as a possible new version of the MacBook Air coming sometime this month, he expects sales to rebound as soon as both of those things actually happen. In short, though these are still preliminary figures, it's looking like Apple will have a solid June quarter here, and Mac sales should be even higher later on this year, especially when you throw Back to School and all of the other big news in the mix. Macs have never been more popular. Stay tuned -- we'll be liveblogging the results of Apple's conference call tomorrow, so come back then to hear the official numbers.
Report: 3.5 million 3D Blu-ray discs 'sold' in first year, half were bundled with hardware
If we're looking at sales figures of 3.5 million units in the first year for a new laptop, smartphone, or camera, then we might be impressed. But 3D Blu-ray discs? When half were included in the box with a Blu-ray player? Man, that's gotta sting. Those numbers are based on an IHS Screen Digest estimate, tallying US sales beginning in June of 2010 and ending last month, though many larger titles didn't make their debut until later in the year. Still, if those results are even in the ballpark of official (unreleased) numbers from BD distributors, then things really aren't looking up for 3D. With fewer than 100 titles even available on Blu-ray, however, we're not really surprised that discs aren't exactly flying off the shelves. Obviously, as a growing number of movies are filmed in 3D we'll see BD title availability increase as well, but with the technology's lackluster beginnings over the last year and no sign that consumers are ready to spend more to embrace that new dimension, 3D may continue its slow crawl toward the mainstream for some time to come.
What analysts think about Apple's iPhone sales
Apple is announcing its quarterly earnings on July 19 and analysts are prepping their sales estimates for the big day. Philip Elmer-Dewitt of Apple 2.0 compiled a handful of these projections which range from a high of 20.25 million from Nicolae Mihalache of Traderhood down to a low of 15 million from Charlie Wolf of Needham. The average estimate falls at 16.9 million units which is a 101% year-over-year increase and a slight drop from the 18.6 million sold last quarter. In four years of iPhone sales, DeWitt estimates Apple has sold over 125 million handsets.
Analyst ups AAPL on strong projected iPad, iPhone sales
Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley remains bullish on Apple pointing to strong iPhone and iPad sales in June. He's so confident in Apple that he boosted his iPhone sales estimate from 75.5 million million to 77.3 million in 2011. He also predicts Apple will sell a whopping 100.2 million iPhones and 55.1 million iPads in 2012. As others have said before him, Walkley notes that Apple will continue to lead both the tablet and smartphone market. So what does these numbers mean for the average joe? More iPhones and iPads in circulation, greater incentive for developers to jump into the iOS ecosystem and extra cash for Apple to pump into research and development for the next generation iOS devices. Sounds good, doesn't it?
Apple's back-to-school promo reportedly beating Microsoft 8 to 2
According to a report from Global Equities Research, more incoming college students are picking up an Apple computer than a Windows computer this year. Apple is not just edging out Microsoft either; Macs are beating out Windows machines at an impressive rate of 8 to 2. About 80% of incoming students will rock a Mac and an increasing number of current students are ditching their Windows machines in favor of an Apple-branded product. iPads are also a hot product among senior students, says the Global Equities Research report. The research also suggests many students are taking advantage of Apple's Back to School $100 gift card promo. What are they doing with extra windfall of iTunes cash? Buying songs, of course.
Annual revenue per iOS user estimated at $150
We all know that Apple's iOS devices are popular. Surveys and analyst predictions place Apple at or near the top in the smartphone, tablet and media player market. That's great for headlines, but what does it mean for Apple's bottom line? Horace Dediu of Asymco did some fancy figuring and calculated that the annual revenue for each iOS owner is US$150. This is based on 180 million current iOS users with 200 million iOS devices. Given the astronomical growth of the iOS platform, this installed user base could quickly climb to 500 million users, a lofty figure that would provide Apple with $74 billion per year in recurring revenue. Mac sales are also climbing and could easily reach 100 million active users who generate $24 billion a year in revenue. Combine the Mac users with the iOS users and Apple could pull in a cool $95 billion per year in revenues from OS X and iOS devices alone. These numbers are a conservative estimate as Dediu does not factor in sales from iTunes, iPods, accessories and software. It also assumes a very generous 3.5 year life span for iOS devices and 5.5 years for Mac hardware.
Analyst suggests Apple to release two iPhone models this September
In a recent research note, Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore predicts Apple may unveil two iPhone models, an iPhone 4S and an iPhone 5, this fall. Whitmore argues that RIM and Nokia, two bastions of the mid-range mobile phone market, are struggling, and Apple could grab a huge chunk of their market share with an inexpensive iPhone. Whitmore believes Apple is producing an iPhone 4S that is unlocked and priced around $349. This lower-priced model, which has been rumored before, will include a pre-paid voice plan that will entice customers to jump on the Apple bandwagon. Along with this low-priced model, Whitmore also believes Apple will also introduce an iPhone 5, which is the next generation iPhone everyone is expecting.
iPhone 5 production to begin in August
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty claims Apple will begin production of the iPhone 5 in the second half of August and ramp up progressively through the rest of the year. Using information obtained from Taiwanese sources, Huberty also writes in a recent research note that the iPhone 5 will go on sale in September, a date that coincides with earlier leaks. The iPhone 5 will be a big seller for Apple and the Morgan Stanley analyst keeps her yearly sales estimate of 72 million units. Third quarter sales may drop due to the September arrival of the iPhone 5, but an increase in sales during the fourth quarter will make up for any third quarter lag. Huberty also believes that Apple is working on a lower-priced iPhone and an Apple-branded TV. Both of these rumors have floated around for a while and have yet to come to fruition.
Tim Cook: Tablets will outsell PCs (no kidding)
Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope has been talking to Apple's higher-ups lately according to BI (including COO Tim Cook), and that they're extremely bullish on iOS devices, even more so than they've been in the past. That's hardly surprising -- not only would you expect Apple executives to be excited about Apple products, but the iOS platform has been rocketing up anyway. Anyone betting against it at this point would be nuts. Still, Cook specifically is claiming that there's "no reason why the tablet market shouldn't eclipse the PC market over the next several years," according to Shope. And while it seems hard to believe that the much larger PC market could ever be threatened by tablets, that's exactly what's been happening lately anyway. Shope's report says he expects another big increase in iPad sales this quarter, which surely Cook and friends would agree with as well. This also means that we'll see some interesting announcements about iOS 5 next Monday for sure.
Four Android myths lazy analysts love
The more I read about the tech sector, the more it becomes clear that "analyst" is synonymous with "stand-up philosopher," which Mel Brooks fans will know is the same thing as an artist who works in a decidedly unsavory medium. This is never more clear than when an outlet like Nielsen releases numbers on the US smartphone market, because immediately afterward legions of "analysts" will leap to the dumbest conclusion possible: Android is ascendant, and Apple is doomed! Dead in the water! DOOOOOMED! In support of that entirely boneheaded thesis, I've noticed a pattern: these "analysts" keep using the same four myopic arguments. All four of these myths dance around a central point, that the smartphone market will only have one "winner," and it sure won't be Apple. The worst part of these analysts' outlandish claims isn't that the arguments are so easily dismantled, it's that so many otherwise intelligent people completely fall for them. Ever since the HTC Dream came out I've seen people jumping up and down and saying, "That's it for Apple, they're done! Android is going to eat your lunch, sorry fanboys!" The fact that it's two and a half years later and that still hasn't happened is no deterrent to the Android faithful, or the lazy analysts who egg them on in the first place. It's honestly getting kind of painful to watch this happen every month, especially since the analysts keep saying the exact same things every time. Read on for the four Android myths that contribute to these analysts' narrow views.
White model to boost iPhone sales in upcoming quarter
Multiple rumors suggest Apple is gearing up to finally launch the white iPhone 4 later this week. While many are weary of these constant rumors, Ticonderoga securities analyst Brian White believes Apple fans and stockholders should be happy that the handset may be ready for its long-awaited debut. According to White "the white iPhone does matter" to Apple's earning potential in the upcoming quarter. White believes Apple will delay the launch of the iPhone 5 until September, and the arrival of the white iPhone 4 will bridge the gap between the launches of the original iPhone 4, the Verizon iPhone 4 and the iPhone 5. Apple will see an incremental boost in sales as the white model has a certain "mystique" about it that will prompt some buyers to make the jump and scoop up an iPhone 4. The demand for white devices in China is also high, and White predicts the blanc version of the iPhone will be especially hot in this Asian country. China is a growing market for Apple devices, and White notes that China accounted for 10 percent of Apple's total revenue over the past six months.
Verizon iPhone selling faster than the HTC Thunderbolt
Earlier this month, a research report from BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk concluded that the HTC Thunderbolt was outselling the Verizon iPhone. This report was based on anecdotal evidence gathered from sales employees and their impressions of which handset was selling faster. Needless to say, the methodology behind this analysis led us to be skeptical of these results; as it turns out, that skepticism was well-founded. During Verizon's earnings conference call, the wireless carrier confirmed it sold 2.2 million iPhones in the six weeks the handset was available on the network. The carrier also confirmed the 4G-enabled HTC Thunderbolt sold 260,000 in the two weeks it was available. On average, then, Verizon was selling about 360,000 iPhones and 130,000 Thunderbolts per week. This is a whopping 230K difference in units sold that favors the iPhone. If you stretch out the Thunderbolt sales to six weeks and assume sales continue at the rate noted above (not necessarily the case, as sales would tend to spike at the beginning of the window and trend down, but giving the Thunderbolt the benefit of the doubt), Verizon would have sold 2.2M iPhones and only 780K HTC Thunderbolt handsets.
Analysts release their Q2 2011 earnings estimates
Apple will announce its quarterly earnings after the bell closes on Wednesday, April 20. The Cupertino company will unveil sales figures for the newly launched iPad 2 and possibly the Verizon iPhone. Long lines and delayed ship times indicate the iPad 2 is selling well, but early estimates suggest the Verizon iPhone is not selling as strongly as expected. Before Apple makes these figures official, analysts are weighing in with their preview of Apple's completed quarter. In previous quarters, blogger analysts and professional analysts differed greatly in their prediction of Apple's sales figures. This quarter, though, the two groups are in relatively close agreement. According to the predicted figures compiled by Fortune, Apple's revenue will beat its guidance of US$22 billion and land between $23 and $24 billion. iPhone sales are expected to hit the 16 to 18 million units sold mark, iPods 9.82 to 9.96 million, iPads 6.2 to 6.7 million, and Macs 3.6 to 3.7 million. For additional details, point your browser to Fortune's website where you can find a detailed chart listing the previews from approximately 50 analysts. Be sure to mark your calendar for 5 PM on Wednesday, April 20, as we will be covering Apple's earning conference call. Join us as we discover how these estimates compare to Apple's reported numbers.
Gartner: Apple will dominate tablet space for years, Android won't drink its milkshake until after 2015
The inundation of tablets upon these very pages from day to day should give you an idea that manufacturers see this as a golden opportunity to grab a big chunk of a fledgling market. According to Gartner, though, the prospects are a little less rosy -- for the next five years, anyway. Analyst estimates indicate that the tablet market will boom over the next five years, from 17,610,000 units last year to 294,093,000 in 2015. No, not 294,092,000. 294,093,000. Apple will be the dominant force, its market share not dropping below 50 percent until the terminal year of this study. Android will take up the lion share of the other half, with the remaining dredges shared by MeeGo, WebOS, and QNX. The latter, which powers RIM's upcoming BlackBerry PlayBook, is scheduled to have a 10 percent share. That'll be the closest thing to a threat that Google and Apple will face -- if you believe any of this. Update: The figures above are in thousands of units.
Apple keeping iPhone 5 suppliers mum about launch date
In a research note, Analyst Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities suggests Apple is being extra secretive with its Asian suppliers when ordering parts for the iPhone 5 and is still quietly preparing the next generation handset for a June or July launch. White writes, "Although we do not have a smoking gun that definitively rules out a delayed autumn unveiling or one that supports a launch this summer, there is a pattern of activity in motion with the supply chain that makes us question a delayed launch." Circulating rumors suggest Apple may release the iPhone 5 in the fall instead of the summer as it has done in the past. Analysts making this prediction have pointed to a lack of component orders for the iPhone which should have been made if the Cupertino company was targeting a June launch. Other rumors point to a significant overhaul of iOS which may include a cloud-based file locker and music streaming service that could debut this fall along with new iPhone and iPod touch hardware. White also confirms other reports that suggest Apple is using its cash reserve to secure components for its iPad 2, iPhone and iPod touch. Apple is reportedly offering upfront cash payments to suppliers to keep its production line flowing while blocking out competitors that are not as cash-rich as Apple.
MacBook Air projected to earn $2.2 billion per year
Analyst Mark Moskowitz with J.P. Morgan predicts the MacBook Air will be a $2.2 billion cash cow for Apple in 2011. The MacBook Air exploded onto the scene in late 2010 with a smaller form factor and a reasonable base price. Moskowitz notes that Apple sold 420,000 units in the last few months of 2010, a 333 percent year-over-year increase. The diminutive MacBook Air accounted for 10 percent of total Mac units sold and 15 percent of its notebook sales. Supply chain estimates suggest the MacBook Air continues to be a strong performer for Apple in 2011. Sources suggest Apple has doubled its February orders for the MacBook Air in response to unexpectedly strong demand. If Apple is able to maintain this level of demand and keep its base price at $1000, Apple can easily beat analysts early sales estimates and accrue $2.2 billion in revenue from this small but sweet notebook.
HTC ThunderBolt vs. Verizon iPhone sales tales based on anecdotal evidence
There's an old joke that goes, "Why don't analysts look out of the window in the mornings? So they'll have something to do in the afternoon." Turns out, that's wrong -- they actually spend their mornings on the phone calling every Verizon store they can find (registration required). OK, full disclosure: some journalists think that they and analysts do remarkably similar jobs, except that analysts have the cojones to add a few zeros to their bill at the end of the day. But it has to be admitted, calling 150 Verizon stores to ask, "Say, how's that new HTC ThunderBolt selling compared to the iPhone?" takes, well, quite a bit of time. And writing up the conclusion, too, that must have taken a while. "61% of the stores that we contacted said they sold an equal amount of both phones, 11% said they sold more iPhones (principally in the Southeast) and 28% of stores had sold more ThunderBolts." The research was done by BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk, and he admits it's not a very scientific study -- the salespersons to whom he spoke "did not have access to actual sales figures and their response was based on their own experience." But, he adds, "they were not much hesitation in the response [sic]." So, a shiny new smartphone released two weeks ago is outselling one that's been available for a year on AT&T and nearly three months on Verizon? Could it be that those who crave speed picked up the latest, greatest smartphone, which runs on the faster network, in preference to the older model? Well, 28% of those asked in an unscientific survey did, anyway. Perhaps. [Via Business Insider]
Forbes: China growth will propel AAPL shares to $547 in the next nine months
Eric Jackson at Forbes has written a piece with some astounding numbers about Apple's business in China. Most impressively, Jackson thinks that because of Apple's China business, Apple shares will hit $547 per share by January 2012, which is only nine months away. That's an impressive upswing from AAPL's closing price of $348.51 yesterday. Jackson opines that Apple's four current Chinese Apple stores bring in US$1.3 billion per year, per store. With Apple set to open as many as 25 retail stores in China, and the Chinese "gaga for Apple," that means Apple's Chinese retail stores alone could draw in another US$32bn a year for the company. That's not counting iPhone sales through carrier stores, Apple's online China store or Cybermart, Apple's largest third-party retailer (owned by Foxconn). Cybermart has only 34 retail outlets today, but it's planning on building up to 500 locations in the future, each with its own special Apple Shop within the store (much like Best Buy's Apple Shop store-within-a-stores). With the second largest economy on the planet, it's no wonder that Jackson sees China as key to Apple's future growth. And it's likely that China will propel Apple to its first $100bn+ net revenue fiscal year ever when Apple's fiscal year ends in September. Disclaimer: The author holds a position in AAPL. TUAW does not provide investment advice; consult an expert before buying or selling equities.
IDC fails to learn from previous mistakes, issues 2015 smartphone predictions
The stat guardians at IDC are among the most reliable sources for keeping track of the latest developments in the smartphone market, but we've got to say their forecasts haven't always benefited from the same accuracy. It's with this disclaimer that we present you the world of 2015 as seen through the IDC prism. In just four years' time, says the data, Windows Phone 7 (or whatever version it reaches by then) will have ascended to occupy a fifth of the market and second spot overall behind Android, whose leading position is expected to stabilize somewhere around the 45 percent mark. Apple and RIM are projected to hold steady with shares close to where they are today. It has to be humbling for the IDC, which predicted Symbian would continue to dominate all the way into 2013, to now have to foretell of its almost complete extinction (a mere 0.2 percent) and total irrelevance in the smartphone market. Alas, while the new prediction sounds very reasonable today, four years of unknown unknowns is a mighty long time to try and forecast through, and we have a feeling we'll be looking back and chuckling at this within a few short months -- probably (hopefully!) in the midst of a massive webOS revival.
70 percent of iPad 2 buyers are new customers
Did you buy an iPad 2 at launch? Is this your first iPad? If you answered yes to both those questions, then you are similar to most people buying the iPad 2 according to Piper Jaffray analysts. Results from an informal survey of 236 people waiting in line suggests 70 percent of those customers purchasing the iPad 2 were first-time iPad buyers. This group of consumers bypassed the first generation model and waited for the new and improved version to hit retail shelves. The survey also revealed about 41 percent of those buying an iPad 2 opted for the 32 GB model, a figure that is higher than the 32 percent reported for the original 32 GB iPad. The 64 GB model and the 3G models also gained in popularity, a trend that suggests the iPad 2 will have a higher average selling price than the iPad. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates Apple sold about 500,000 iPad 2 units over the weekend. iPad 2s are reportedly hard to find in retail stores, and the estimated ship dates from Apple's online store are now 3-4 weeks. Based on these early iPad 2 sales, Munster considers his projection of 5.5 million units sold in the March quarter to be on the conservative side.
